Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 2:
All Players on Atlanta & Dallas
So, basically everyone projected to get snaps for either Atlanta or Dallas is significantly underpriced on both sites, and by both the DFS SuperModel and our projections. Usually, DFS sites jack up salaries for players in the game with the highest over/under of the week (50.0), but it appears they didn’t go anywhere near far enough this week. In what should be a fast-paced, pass-heavy, high-scoring shootout, I suspect the biggest DFS question of the week is “To fade or not to fade this game” (based purely on reasons related to ownership) and then, if you’re not fading that game, the question becomes “Who don’t you want?”
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (v. MIN)
Model (DK: +994 / FD: +1,476)
Taylor ranks 8th in our FanDuel projections, and yet he’s just the 22nd-most expensive RB on FanDuel this week. Taylor is easily one of the best RB prospects to come out in over a decade, and, with Marlon Mack now out for the year, is now the Week 2 starter. The only questionable area of his game was as a pass-catcher, and on Sunday he turned 12 routes into 6 catches for 67 yards. He’s just the 22nd-most expensive RB on FanDuel this week, $200 cheaper than Leonard Fournette. And, well, do I really need to say anything else?
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (v. JAX)
Projections (DK: 3.5X / FD: 2.7X)
Henry isn’t cheap – he ranks as the 4th-highest priced RB on DraftKings and the 5th-highest priced RB on FanDuel – but he is clearly one of the best values on both sites. Favored by 9.0-points, with Darrynton Evans and A.J. Brown questionable, and against a Jacksonville team that traded away all of their talent on defense, yeah….. This one’s easy. The hard part is trying to choose between Henry and Ezekiel Elliott (who the SuperModel likes slightly more).
Benny Snell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (v. DEN)
Model (FD: +1,006)
Taylor is easily the best value on FanDuel this week, but Snell isn’t too far behind (so long as Conner sits) – he’s the only other player offering over $1,000 value on the site, as per the DFS SuperModel. When a reporter asked HC Mike Tomlin if Snell was capable of fulfilling the “bell cow” role Conner leaves behind, Tomlin answered in the affirmative: “I think he displayed that [Sunday Night].” Although that’s his upside, it’s worth noting that he’s never before received that role. After Conner’s injury, Snell was more workhorse than bell-cow, out-snapping Jaylen Samuels just 24 to 18. So, he could be the bell-cow this week if Conner is out, but, at the very least, he’s locked into the early-down role. Although Denver’s run defense is underrated, that should still be a valuable role as 6.5-point favorites.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (v. DEN)
Model (DK: +783) / Projections (DK: 3.2X)
After hyping Johnson all offseason, many subscribers were left underwhelmed by his performance in Week 1. Sure, he only caught six balls for 57 yards, but he also led the team in targets with 10 (4 more than next-closest). He ranked 15th among all WRs in XFP last week (17.0), but ranks just 52nd in salary on DraftKings this week. Look for similarly good volume, but much better production this week against Denver’s dreadful and banged-up secondary.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants (@ CHI)
Model: (FD: +644)
Slayton was lights-out in Week 1, scoring 28.2 fantasy points (5th-most on the week) on 20.2 XFP (7th-most). He certainly benefited from WR Golden Tate’s absence, but Tate is still questionable for Week 2. He has another tough draw this week, against Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson, but even with that in mind, and even if Tate suits up, is still egregiously mispriced on FanDuel, ranking as just the 46th-most expensive WR on the slate.
Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts (v. MIN)
Model: (DK: +393 / FD: +606)
Campbell is a prospect I didn’t just love, I adored. After an injury-marred rookie season, I was overjoyed to see him have a big game in Week 1, turning 9 targets and 7 touches into 80 yards. Still, I think this is only scratching the surface of Campbell’s potential, and HC Frank Reich and QB Philip Rivers seem to agree. After ranking 18th in XFP last week (16.3), and now up against a bottom-5 pass defense, Campbell is badly mispriced on both sites.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans (v. JAX)
Projections: (DK: 2.5X)
Although this feels like a big Derrick Henry week, if the Titans do pass at all, they’re probably going to have to lean heavily on their TE – WR Corey Davis (hamstring), WR A.J. Brown (knee), and scatback Darrynton Evans are all battling injuries. Smith ran a route on only 60% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks last week, but he did see 7 targets, netting 36 yards and a score. Even if Davis and Brown are fine for Sunday’s game, he’s still one of the better values at the position.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos (@ PIT)
Projections: (DK: 3.0X / FD: 2.0X)
Although Chris Herndon (on DraftKings) and Logan Thomas (on both sites) also ranked highly, Fant is far and away the top value TE on the week according to our projections. The SuperModel is a little less bullish on Fant – presumably, because WR Courtland Sutton practiced on Wednesday and Thursday – but it’s hard not to get excited about the young hyper-athletic TE who posted a 5-81-1 line on 6 targets in Week 1. He ranks just 12th in salary on DraftKings and 14th on FanDuel. He’s a top play if Sutton sits out.
Dalton Schultz / Jordan Reed / Mo Alie-Cox
What? You’re kidding me! Yes, I know. But there is value in completely punting the TE position in DFS. You wouldn’t be playing one of these TEs for what they can do, you’re playing them for the salary cap relief they provide. In a game with the highest over/under of the slate (50.0) – one that everyone wants exposure to – I bet Schultz goes overlooked. In the second half of last week’s game, after Blake Jarwin suffered a season-ending ACL injury, Schultz saw 4 targets running a route on 22 of Dak Prescott’s 24 dropbacks. He’s a decent punt-option on FanDuel ($4,000). On DraftKings, an even better play would be Jordan Reed (DK: $2600) if George Kittle sits. And a decent second option would be Mo Alie-Cox (DK: $3000 / FD: $4000) if Jack Doyle is out.