When it comes to predicting fantasy football outcomes, the list of variables is endless — coaching schemes, defensive matchups, game script, weather, and more. But while team or coaching tendencies are often the go-to starting point, we shouldn’t ignore the guy throwing the ball. QBs aren't just passengers in a system — they're the ones pulling the trigger. Put late-career Drew Brees in Sean McVay’s offense, and I’d bet good money Kyren Williams gets peppered with targets like he’s Alvin Kamara. Schemes matter, but QB preferences can reshape how those schemes play out.
With this in mind, I will dive into QB positional target tendencies for all potential 2025 starting quarterbacks over a three-year sample size (2022-2024). Using this data, we can dial in on the QBs who target RBs, TEs, WRs, and the slot or outside at the highest/lowest rates and attempt to separate signal from noise to see what the most valuable trends are heading into 2025.
Two important points before we get started, this data will be heavily skewed by sample size and a QB’s surrounding cast. 2nd-year QBs like Michael Penix or Drake Maye have thrown very few passes, and thus, their target tendencies are much more likely to be noise than, say, Jared Goff’s.
In regards to supporting cast, it should go without saying that if Travis Kelce is on your team, you are going to target TEs more because he’s a future Hall of Famer. I’ll do my best to acknowledge these factors in the analysis below.
Scroll to the bottom for a full chart of targets and percentages.
Running Backs
One of the most consistent trends throughout positional target tendencies is that older quarterbacks attempt to get the ball out quickly by targeting their backfield teammates. That’s good news for Jaylen Warren with Aaron Rodgers now leading the Steelers' passing game. Scott Barrett described Kaleb Johnson as a “fairly one-dimensional early-down runner with limited value in the passing game.” Meanwhile, Warren earned 3.5 targets per game in the final six weeks of 2024 (would have ranked 11th-best among RBs) and 4.2 targets per game (7th-best) in 2023. Warren offers a great combination of floor and ceiling (if Johnson stinks) at a low-end RB3 price tag.
Justin Fields is the rare Konami Code QB who does target RBs, clocking in with the 5th-highest RB target rate (19.2%). When you combine that with OC Tanner Engstrand (Lions passing game coordinator in 2023 and 2024), we can present a compelling case for Breece Hall. Lions RBs combined for the 3rd-most designed targets (33), the 3rd-most targets (101), and the most backfield receiving yards (845) last year. If Engstrand takes a page from Ben Johnson’s playbook and schemes up targets for RBs, Hall could get peppered with targets from Fields. Ryan Heath articulates a longer-form bull case for Hall here.
Daniel Jones is the likely Week 1 starter in Indianapolis, but there could be some dramatic differences in RB target rates if the team decides to oscillate between Jones and Anthony Richardson. Richardson’s 9.7% RB target rate is the single-lowest multi-year rate I’ve ever seen from a potential starter since I began writing these articles, and my QB positional target data goes back to 2017. Last year, Jonathan Taylor averaged 1.3 targets per game and 15.7 XFP/G (RB11 over the full season) in his nine games with Richardson, but 3.6 targets per game and 19.5 XFP/G (RB1) in all other contests.
There is no bigger difference in RB target shares between teammates than Russell Wilson (26%) and Jameis Winston (11%). This may not matter by the end of the year if Jaxson Dart takes over the starting role, but it will likely matter for early-season DFS. Tyrone Tracy averaged 14.4 XFP/G (RB20) on an 11% target share in the final six weeks of the 2024 season. Despite a bottom-6 pass rate over expectation (-3.7%), Steelers RBs averaged +1.2 more targets per game (6.5) with Russell Wilson under center than the Giants’ RBs averaged in the final six weeks (5.3).
Slot Pass Catchers
Caleb Williams already has a top-4 slot target rate (36%), and now he joins a Ben Johnson offense that contains a hyper-valuable slot role. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked 5th (last year), 4th, and 12th among WRs in FPG over the last three seasons, averaging 18.7 FPG over that stretch. Over the last two years, St. Brown has ranked 13th-best (2024) and 2nd-best (2023) in total YAC – a notable strength of Luther Burden, as highlighted by Scott Barrett. Our best ball rankings are quite bullish on Burden, and I can’t help but agree, as his end-of-season upside is incredible.
Jameis Winston (37%) and Russell Wilson (27%) couldn’t be further apart on their slot target rate. For perspective, that’s the difference between 218 and 159 slot targets using New York’s 2024 passing numbers. Winston starting should be worth a boost to Wan’Dale Robinson (78% slot rate) or even Theo Johnson (53% slot rate), but I do wonder if Winston’s propensity for downfield targets somewhat negates this analysis, given Robinson’s 5.0 aDOT.
No player targets WRs like Matthew Stafford (72% WR target rate, 1st if you exclude Michael Penix and his 100 career pass attempts), which is why he has such a reputation as a WR kingmaker. Ryan Heath laid out a great case for Puka Nacua here, and I have quite a bit of interest in Davante Adams. This slot role is wide open with no Cooper Kupp, and Adams posted a higher separation score (0.064) and TPRR (0.29) from the slot last season than he did out wide (0.05, 0.26).
The only two players who ran more than 100 routes from the slot for Denver last year were Devaughn Vele and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Vele was competent (1.77 YPRR), but Humphrey was much closer to a disaster (1.12 YPRR) from that alignment. TEs Lucas Kroll, Adam Trautman, and Nate Adkins combined for a 0.9 YPRR on 100 total slot routes. For 2025, it’s easy to see Evan Engram (1.45 YPRR from the slot last year) somewhat reversing Nix’s slot target rate as the most talented receiving TE Nix has ever played with. Interestingly, slot targets within the Denver offense were the 2nd-most valuable in fantasy football last year. 32% of that slot fantasy production came from Marvin Mims (on just 62 routes), but Engram is still a massive upgrade relative to Humphrey or last year’s TEs.
Jacksonville’s Slot Role
Trevor Lawrence (36%) relied heavily on slot targets to players like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, but Jacksonville’s slot role looks rather ambiguous this year. Let’s not forget the value here in a Liam Coen offense – Chris Godwin averaged 15.6 XFP/G and 19.7 FPG on a 64% slot rate in his healthy games, including 10.6 XFP/G and 14.3 FPG from just the slot. If we accept that this Jacksonville slot role has a ton of fantasy value, the ultimate question is who it belongs to.
Dyami Brown has a career 73% route share on the outside, and he managed a pedestrian 1.45 YPRR and 0.8 targets per game from the slot last season. He can safely be eliminated from consideration here.
Liam Coen has already noted that he wants to use Brian Thomas Jr. all over the formation. That probably caps his slot snap rate, but it’s worth noting that Thomas was actually better in the slot (3.25 YPRR, 0.14 1D/RR) than he was on the outside (2.28 YPRR, 0.09 1D/RR). It’s easy to expect a fruitful but somewhat limited slot role for Thomas.
But Travis Hunter is easily the most interesting player to discuss here. Hunter’s offensive snaps may very well be limited to keep him fresh as a multi-way player, especially early in the year. But I’m not sure that translates to limited fantasy value for a few reasons. Coen is elite at scheming targets for his players, and no QB locks in on their first read more than Trevor Lawrence.
Godwin’s 38% first-read rate from the slot would have ranked 3rd-best among all players over the full season. If Hunter earns a robust slot role on top of schemed touches, he’s potentially pushing for Godwin's slot-only production – 10.6 XFP/G and 14.3 FPG – the second he touches the field as a rookie.
We know that rookie WRs also offer additional late-season upside relative to their veteran peers, and it’s only logical that Jacksonville would give Hunter more offensive snaps as the season goes on if he’s a great NFL WR, given the state of their WR depth chart.
This paints a truly incredible upside scenario. Hunter earning a route share of 80% or higher while earning a heavy dose of designed targets, slot targets, and first-read targets with an OC whose team ranked top-3 in raw FP/RR and 6th-best in slot FP/RR last year could easily lead to one of the best rookie fantasy seasons of all time. I view Hunter (and all the unknowns surrounding his Year 1 usage) as one of the most compelling upside bets of the last decade, especially at his WR30 price tag on Underdog.
To briefly argue against myself, I am forced to mention the overwhelmingly negative stat that “we’ve never (within the Fantasy Points Data era) seen a WR finish top-45 at the position while running a route on fewer than two-thirds of a team’s dropbacks.”
Every player has the same downside scenario. They can get hurt or play terribly and contribute zero fantasy to your teams. Hunter’s downside case is complicated by never-before-seen two-way usage, but that doesn’t impact his upside case. His upside is MVP-level play across both sides of the ball. Or, better put for fantasy: a plethora of the most valuable targets in football on an efficient offense.
Wide Pass Catchers
Michael Penix (100 attempts) has the most limited sample of any QB in this discussion, but his outside target rate (55%) is massive. In Penix’s three starts, Drake London averaged 117.3 receiving YPG, 13.0 overall targets per game, and 2.0 end zone targets per game with Penix, paces that would have led all WRs over the past four seasons. Ryan Heath articulates a great long-form bull case for London here.
Tua Tagovailoa (44%) clocked in with the 7th-highest outside WR target rate, and it’s hard not to get excited about Jaylen Waddle’s potential with Jonnu Smith in Pittsburgh and Tyreek Hill (31 years old) spotted in a hand brace on July 16th. Waddle averaged 17.4 FPG (WR9 over the full year) and 14.7 XFP/G (WR18) in his final four healthy games last season, presenting compelling value at a WR29 on Underdog. And we know he’s a great player, having ranked in the top 5 in YPRR in 2023 (2.93) and 2022 (2.71). Even if you don’t buy any statistical arguments for a player who only has four games of 20.0-plus fantasy points in the last two seasons, the situational argument couldn’t be much stronger.
As always, it’s important to note that players like Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Drake Maye haven’t had sufficiently talented pass catchers on the outside to justify targeting outside pass catchers with any regularity. At least in the cases of Prescott and Mahomes, I imagine we see a shift this season. Prescott added hero catch specialist George Pickens, while Mahomes has 35-year-old Travis Kelce and a pending Rashee Rice suspension, leaving Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown as early-season target beneficiaries.
Tight Ends
Drake Maye only attempted 309 passes last year, but he certainly locked onto Hunter Henry on those attempts. Henry averaged 10.2 FPG and 10.5 XFP/G in the 10 games where Maye attempted at least 20 passes. Over the full season, those marks would have ranked 12th-best and 8th-best among TEs. Henry is a clear – but rather boring – value at TE19 on Underdog.
I don’t need to spend much time on Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Kyler Murray targeting TEs at top-4 rates given the caliber of TE they play with. That said, I do think Mark Andrews pops as a clear value at TE7 on Underdog. The first half of his 2024 season was derailed by an offseason tightrope surgery and an August car crash. If we just look at Andrews' games after Week 7, where he earned a route share over 60%, he averaged 15.2 FPG and 2.19 YPRR – numbers that would have ranked 3rd and 5th among all TEs over the full season. For perspective, Brock Bowers earned a 2.11 YPRR last year.
I’m getting some 2024 Cade Otton vibes from 2025 Brenton Strange. Otton’s two best games came without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in Weeks 9 and 10, but he was still the TE15 by XFP/G (9.0) if you exclude those contests. Strange is available at TE18 on Underdog (while playing for a QB who has targeted TEs at the league’s 5th-highest rate), and it’s easy to see value there with Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter (who has potential snap limitations) as the only impressive target competition.
I’m not worried about Caleb Williams' paltry TE target rate after Chicago drafted Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick. I’ll simply link what Ryan Heath and Scott Barrett have written on Loveland, because that should be more than enough to get you excited about him in a Ben Johnson offense.
Notable Backup Tendencies
I’ll keep the data below to starters or potential starters, but there are some backups with notably different positional target tendencies than their respective starter. I’ll highlight those rather quickly below.
Baltimore backup Cooper Rush (12%) shockingly has a lower RB target rate than Lamar Jackson (14%). It’s counterintuitive, but it’s true: don’t get excited about Justice Hill’s receiving upside if Jackson gets hurt.
Chicago backup Tyson Bagent is a check-down king, with 23% of his attempts going to RBs, compared to just 15% for Caleb Williams. Among expected starters, Bagent’s 23% RB target rate would rank 2nd-highest. Bagent (21%) has also targeted TEs notably more often than Williams (14%).
Denver backup Jarrett Stidham (25%) is another notable check-down connoisseur, granted he’s not that far ahead of Bo Nix (19%) in RB target rate.
Continuing this pattern of backups targeting RBs more often, Houston backup Davis Mills (22%) is much more willing to target RBs (22%) than CJ Stroud (14%).
Rams backup Jimmy Garoppolo (18%) targets RBs +7% more often than Matthew Stafford (11%). Although it’s nearly impossible to target RBs less often than Stafford.
Miami backup Zach Wilson has a 21% TE target rate, compared to a 15% TE target rate for Tua Tagovailoa. Wilson’s 542 attempts are one of our better samples among backups, so his presence would be worth a slight boost for Darren Waller.
Pittsburgh backup Mason Rudolph has a 28% TE target rate, compared to 17% for Aaron Rodgers. That's noteworthy in an Arthur Smith offense that led the NFL in 13 personnel formations last year.
Marcus Mariota (12%) targets RBs 4% less often than Jayden Daniels (16%), and he targets TEs (27% TE target rate) +7% more often than Daniels (21%).
