A lack of NFL football, or football in general, is a terrible thing. But football is still hanging around, thanks to the UFL! And since DraftKings is offering DFS tournaments, it’s time to discuss the top plays and contrarian options so we can bink some UFL tournaments.
I’ll go position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for tournaments. I'll include a TL;DR for those who don’t want to read my reasoning and just want the top-value plays. I’ll also include teams’ implied totals directly below to help readers understand the offenses Vegas thinks will put the most points on the board.
Team Totals
St. Louis Battlehawks (22.0) @ DC Defenders (20.5)
Houston Roughnecks (19.0) @ Michigan Panthers (25.5)
Arlington Renegades (23.5) @ San Antonio Brahmas (18.0)
Birmingham Stallions (22.5) @ Memphis Showboats (16.0)
TL;DR
In the TL;DR, I’ll list the top plays in order of value (according to me). This isn’t super strict, it does not factor in ownership, and in some cases, it’s sort of arbitrary. It also doesn’t matter nearly as much as my readers think it does. What matters is maximizing the correlations within your lineups, and ensuring you include at least a few players on each tournament team who should be on the lower end of ownership (I highlight a few in my write-ups). Get creative!
Plays ranked in order, with tier 1 in bold, and assumes notable questionable players suit up…
QB: Mike DiLiello, Jalan McClendon, Luis Perez, Rocky Lombardi, Brandon Silvers, J’Mar Smith, Dresser Winn, Kellen Mond
RB: Dae Dae Hunter, Jarveon Howard, Nate McCrary, Deneric Prince, Ricky Person, Tony Jones, Kevon Latulas, Jalen Jackson
WR/TE: Kai Locksley, Tyler Vaughns, Justin Hall, Javon Antonio, Jayden Mickens, Seth Williams, Jace Sternberger, Jahcour Pearson, Jaylon Moore, Davion Davis, Sal Cannella
Important Note: The UFL playoffs are set in stone, which means that we’ve introduced some rotational risks for the four playoff teams (St. Louis, DC, Birmingham, Michigan) and the teams that no longer have anything to play for (Houston, Memphis, Arlington, San Antonio). I’ll decipher these rotation question marks using historical coaching tendencies, coach speak, and any available news. But it’s crucial to remember that player projections will be more fragile in these final two regular-season weeks.
QB
J’Mar Smith ($9,800) – During last week’s broadcast, HC Skip Holtz noted that he wanted to get backup QB Andrew Peasley ($6,000) in the game, but didn’t think that they were in the right situation to do that. Since the middle of the season, Holtz has said numerous times he wants to get Peasley reps, given how injury-riddled the Stallions’ QB room has been this season. My assumption for Week 10 is that we will likely see Peasley for about a quarter of play – especially since a matchup with Memphis should lead to a more relaxed game environment for the inexperienced QB. That makes J’Mar Smith a rather tough click, but he could still drop 20-plus fantasy points over ~3 quarters of action – or he could push for a full game if Holtz doesn’t deem it a proper scenario for Peasley. I still want some Smith exposure on my tournament teams this week.
Danny Etling ($9,700) – Etling has averaged 20.9 DraftKings FPG over his last two starts, but I doubt he gets a full game in Week 10. HC Mike Nolan told the media that Rocky Lombardi ($6,000) is expected to receive legitimate reps this week against Houston, and Nolan rested a handful of starters for a quarter or two in Week 10 of last season. My base case for Etling is somewhere between two and three quarters of play. That’s still good enough for him to register as a top-6 QB option in our projections this week, but it does limit his upside.
Update: Rocky Lombardi ($6,000) is the listed starter here. It’s possible we still get to see Etling play a quarter or two, but I’d consider Lombardi a compelling dart throw for GPPs.
Luis Perez ($9,200) – Perez played on 97% of snaps in a meaningless game in Week 9, and there is no reason to expect any different in Week 10, as HC Bob Stoops wants to win these final games. Even better: Perez is matched up with the worst defense in spring football. San Antonio is allowing 7.9 YPA (+16% softer than the 2nd-softest team), 336.9 YPG (softest), and 27.9 PPG (softest). On paper, this is the best possible matchup for Perez, but he will likely need San Antonio to show up in some capacity to hit his ceiling. For DFS tournament purposes, I’ll squeeze San Antonio players into my Perez lineups where appropriate.
Jalan McClendon ($9,100) – McClendon is arguably the most valuable fantasy asset in the UFL for Week 10. It’s not because he’s the league’s best fantasy QB (that would be Jordan Ta’amu or Bryce Perkins), but it’s because he’s one of the only competent fantasy QBs who we can be reasonably certain will play a full game. McClendon has averaged 19.4 DraftKings FPG since Week 7 (QB4 over the full season), and he’s an 8.5-point underdog against a Michigan defense that will likely partially rest their starters in this contest. He’s a great play in DFS tournaments, and he’s potentially the skeleton key to winning a Week 10 championship game in season-long leagues.
Brandon Silvers ($6,000) – I never get that excited about QBs who can’t run, but Silvers is the minimum price and was just announced as the starter for St. Louis. There is still a serious risk that Silvers only manages two or three quarters of play, but I want some exposure after he managed 9.6 fantasy points in just a half last week. Again, this is largely a function of Silvers being significantly underpriced relative to his projection, but he represents a strong QB value.
Mike DiLiello ($6,000) – DiLiello started the 2nd half in Week 9, recording 206 passing yards, 1 TD, and 13.1 DraftKings points. After the game, HC Shannon Harris had this to say about Jordan Ta’amu’s playing time in Week 10: “We want to keep him in rhythm, but we will pull him a lot sooner next [week], for sure.” That should mean closer to three quarters of playing time for DiLiello this week, which makes him one of the best QB values of Week 10, and a top-5 QB play overall in our projections.
Update: DiLiello is starting this week. This means we won’t see Ta’amu, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Spencer Sanders ($7,700) came in for the 4th quarter or 2nd half to get some reps.
RB
Full Season Weighted Opportunity:
Weighted Opportunity over the last two and last four weeks:
Week 9 Weighted Opportunity:
Jashaun Corbin ($8,600) – Corbin and Dae Dae Hunter have been the league’s most reliable bell cows over the final few weeks of the season, and it all starts with incredible usage. In his last two games, Corbin has earned the single-best workload of any RB this season (21.4 WO in Week 8) and the 11th-best workload of any RB (16.1 WO in Week 9). Over this stretch, he leads all RBs in carries (39, +14 more than the next-closest player), snap share (75%), and route share (66%) while ranking 3rd in targets (7). Again, this is simply an awesome workload, but I’m worried Corbin will go from bell cow to committee RB if John Lovett (who was activated from IR this week) is active on gameday. That concern, coupled with a tougher matchup against Arlington's run defense (3.5 YPC allowed, 2nd-toughest) forces me to be more cautious about Corbin this week. He’s a strong play if Lovett sits (especially in season-long formats), but his workload will take a significant hit if Lovett is listed as active on this week’s depth chart.
Update: Anthony McFarland and John Lovett are both active. Nobody in this backfield is playable for the main slate.
Dae Dae Hunter ($8,200) – No player has earned a better workload over the last month of the season than Hunter, and his 13.0 DraftKings FPG over that stretch ranks behind only Jashaun Corbin (20.1 DraftKings FPG) and Toa Taua (13.9). Even over the last two weeks – which spans Tony Jones’ tenure in this backfield – Hunter is still earning 77% of backfield WO in the league’s most-valuable fantasy backfield (a workload that should be worth 17.2 FPG). Keep in mind that 17.2 FPG would easily lead all UFL RBs over the full season. Hunter is the clear RB1 of Week 10. He offers no playing time concerns, an elite workload, and the best possible matchup against a Brahmas defense that’s allowed 4.1 YPC (softest) this season.
Nate McCrary ($6,000) – McCrary and Matthew Colburn are the only two active RBs for Michigan this week, setting both players up with solid fantasy workloads. The last time only these two were active in the backfield for Michigan, McCrary led the way with 10.9 WO (58% of backfield WO), 57% of snaps, and a 60% route share. It’s hard to say how sticky McCrary being on the better side of a 60/40 split will be in a meaningless game, but I feel good about taking shots on both players in tournaments – granted, Rocky Lombardi starting does drop the offense's floor a bit.
Deneric Prince ($5,600) – Prince’s playing time was fairly encouraging in Week 9, when he led all RBs in snap share (72%) and route share (77%). Unfortunately, Jalen Jackson ($5,500) dominated red zone work, earning 5 of 5 backfield red zone touches for Memphis. Prince is so cheap that it’s impossible not to consider him a strong value after the snap and route shares we saw last week, but I’m fairly worried about his TD equity and general upside in an offense that’s implied for 16.0 points this week by oddsmakers. I’ll only be excited about Prince if his ownership stays in check.
Jarveon Howard ($5,000) and Kevon Latulas ($4,500) – Howard (13 opportunities) and Latulas (8 opportunities) both earned strong workloads relative to their DraftKings salaries in Week 9, and a similar scenario is expected this week. Jacob Saylors ($9,000) should play at least a quarter as he works to secure the rushing title, but it’s obvious St. Louis doesn’t want to risk him earning significant playing time in a meaningless game. Between Howard and Latulas, I give a clear lean to Howard in all formats; in Week 9, he led the backfield in WO (10.8), red zone opportunities (4), and snap share (36%), while Latulas didn’t touch the ball until the end of the 3rd quarter. We can quibble with Howard’s upside since he’s only looking at ~two quarters of leading this backfield, but he’s a strong DFS value as the RB17 by salary.
Tony Jones ($4,700) – Jones has an incredible matchup against a San Antonio defense that’s allowing the most rushing YPG (129.2) and YPC (4.1), but he can’t quite break free from Dae Dae Hunter’s shadow. Jones has only earned 23% of backfield WO over the last two weeks, a workload worth ~5.1 FPG over the full season. That said, his 41% snap share over that stretch suggests there is room for a bigger share of backfield work, and he’s out-carried Hunter 3 to 0 inside the 10. If Jones can push for ~40% of backfield work in the perfect matchup and keep the lead on goal-line touches, I see notable upside relative to his price.
WR/TE (Quick Hits)
Let’s just take a moment to admire Justin Hall’s ($10,000) workload. Hall’s 31% target share is easily the greatest mark in spring football history. Over the last two weeks, Hall has averaged 15.0 targets per game and a 38% target share – numbers that would only be beaten or tied by Malik Nabers (Weeks 2 and 3) and Drake London (Weeks 17 and 18) if we look at two-game stretches by NFL WRs in 2024. I’m consistently in awe of Hall’s workload, and the 18.3 DraftKings FPG Hall has averaged since Week 5 on that workload. I’ve said this before, but I need to repeat it before the regular season ends: Justin Hall is the Antonio Brown of spring football.
Tyler Vaughns ($9,100) has simply been phenomenal in the 2nd-half of the season, averaging 18.5 FPG since Week 6 (2nd-best). I don’t need to tell you he’s an excellent click, but I will offer a reminder that there is no better matchup than San Antonio. The Brahmas are allowing 7.9 YPA (softest) and 27.9 PPG (softest) this season, setting up the entire Arlington passing attack with a fantastic matchup. All of Vaughs, Sal Cannella ($7,800), Deontay Burnett ($6,600), Isaiah Winstead ($5,100), and JaVonta Payton ($5,600) could post nuclear scores this week. I plan to get exposure to every Arlington pass catcher, either as a one-off or through Luis Perez stacks.
I’m really not sure what to do with players like Malik Turner ($8,800) and Siaosi Mariner ($8,400) this week. In Week 10 of last season, Panthers HC Mike Nolan noted that he didn’t want to rest his starters outright (because they won’t get paid as much for being inactive) but that he didn’t want them seeing their full workload, either. Interestingly, that led to modest (~15%) route share reductions for Trey Quinn, Devin Gray, and Cole Hikutini – but it didn’t have a dramatic impact on fantasy production or viability for Michigan pass catchers. I’m cautiously optimistic we can still play Turner and Mariner in DFS tournaments, although I would consider Jaylon Moore ($4,900) and Cole Hikutini ($3,100) the safest options solely based on their price.
Update: Hikutini and Devin Ross have both been ruled out. Turner and Mariner remain playable as listed starters, but the presence of Xavier Malone ($3,000) and Nehemiah Martinez on the depth chart suggests there is a decent possibility that either player gets pulled later in the game. I’d consider Moore and TE Gunnar Oakes ($3,500) as the safest options here (primarily due to price), and I also like Samson Nacua ($5,400) as a showdown option.
Jahcour Pearson ($6,000) had his best fantasy game of the season in Week 9 (15.1 DraftKings points). Coincidentally, it was the first time all season that Brandon Silvers ($6,000) saw action for St. Louis, playing the entire 2nd half. I feel confident that the Battlehawks will trot Silvers out there for at least a half, which makes Pearson, Hakeem Butler ($8,300), Frank Darby ($4,300), and Blake Jackson ($3,900) more viable for tournaments than any week we’ve seen since Manny Wilkins tore his Achilles.
Seth Williams ($5,700), Jaydon Mickens ($4,200), and Javon Antonio ($4,000) all shape up as decent salary-saving options with DC expected to rest their key skill players in some capacity this week. Interestingly, Cornell Powell ($8,100) and Chris Rowland ($9,300) played until the final snap of the game last week, despite QB2 Mike DiLiello entering the game at the start of the 2nd half. You could argue for playing Rowland in DFS (and I’d still consider him a must-play in season-long formats) after he earned 11 targets on a full-time (85%) route share last week, but Powell likely ends up either out or limited after missing multiple practices this week with an illness. That said, I think the majority of WR reps this week go to Williams, Mickens, and Antonio, making all three players relatively compelling tournament options.
Update: Cornell Powell is out this week, and Braylon Sanders ($6,900) is starting in his place. I’d consider every active DC WR viable for tournaments, but my favorites (for DFS) are the trio highlighted above.
Jacob Harris ($4,400) is back on the menu after earning a 63% route share and 4 targets in Week 9. I still have no idea why Harris was benched after ranking 4th in the UFL in receiving yards (247) in the first five weeks of the season. Regardless, his talent appears to be winning out again, but I’d temper expectations (and tournament exposure) for any pass catcher in an offense that’s averaged 141.1 passing YPG this season.
Jace Sternberger ($4,000) just should not be this cheap when we expect Skip Holtz to do what Skip Holtz has always done: play the starters (potentially excluding J’Mar Smith) until the bitter end. Over the last four weeks, Sternberger ranks 18th in targets (16), 14th in receiving FPG (8.5), and 8th in red zone targets (3), presenting strong value relative to his WR35 price tag on DraftKings.
Kai Locksley ($3,100) is shaping up as one of the better value plays of the season in Week 10. Jonathan Adams only ran 8% of routes before he went down with a hamstring injury, which vacates a 22% target share and 75% route share in an offense that will likely be forced to throw as 6.5-point underdogs. With Adams on the pine in Week 9, Locksley earned a team-leading 21% target share. Of course, Adams’ absence will boost the expectations of Daewood Davis ($6,500) and Kwamie Lassiter ($5,900), but Locksley is easily the best value here.
Update: Kwamie Lassiter ($5,900) is out, but Jonathan Adams ($8,000) looks like he will play. Locksley is still a solid value, and I don’t mind taking shots on the two-game slate on either Isiah Hennie ($3,000) or Elijah Stove ($3,700). Hennis and Stove also represent strong desperation late swap options.
