We’re past the halfway point of the fantasy regular season and barreling towards the stretch run. However, this Stat-Pack is dedicated to King Derrick Henry. Thank you for leading our squads to 5-3, 6-2, 7-1, and undefeated starts. May he get back healthy and run over everyone again in 2022.
We’re on to Week 9.
Bye teams (Raiders and Ravens) were not included.
Kyler Murray has finished as the QB22, QB4, QB9, and QB29 over the last month.
His floor and ceiling is much lower simply because he’s not running as near as much as last year.
Over his last four games, Murray has 38 rushing yards… total.
Per SIS, Murray has scrambled just three times over his last four games. 15 QBs have more scrambles in this span.
Chase Edmonds has finished as the RB25 or better in 6-of-8 games with his lone two failures coming in Weeks 5-6 when he was dealing with a shoulder injury.
The bad news is that Edmonds hasn’t finished higher than RB13.
Zach Ertz was more involved in his second start with the Cardinals. He was involved on 54% of the pass plays in Week 7 and was boosted up to 70% in Week 8.
Arizona is using Ertz in a diverse role. He’s run 49% of his routes as a traditional “inline” TE, he’s lined up in the slot 36% of the time, and been split out as a wide receiver 15% of the time.
Falcons’ routes run in Week 8 with Calvin Ridley (mental rest) out: Pitts (33), Gage (23), Sharpe (23), Hurst (20), Patterson (18), Davis (15), and Zaccheaus (13).
Patterson ran 10 of his routes split out as a wide receiver and lined up in the backfield on the other eight.
D’Andre Swift is averaging 88 scrimmage yards per game, which is 14th-most among RBs… C-Patt is averaging 86.
In the two games that Ridley has missed, Kyle Pitts has almost strictly been used as a wide receiver. He's not running traditional TE routes as 86% of his snaps have come split out wide or in the slot in Week 5 and 8.
Emmanuel Sanders' goose-egg in Week 8 wasn’t due to a lack of usage. He led the Bills WR group in routes (43) followed by Cole Beasley (42) and Stefon Diggs (41).
Josh Allen’s last five weekly finishes: QB1, QB12, QB4, QB3, and QB1. Not bad.
Next up? The Bills get the Jaguars, Jets, and Colts.
Zack Moss has out-snapped Devin Singletary by a 131 to 75 margin over their last three games.
Including QB runs, the Panthers ran the ball 47 times (!!) compared to just 25 passes against the Falcons. Do you think this staff trusts Sam Darnold, or what?!
DJ Moore’s first four games: 30/398/3 (WR4 | 22.4 FPG)
His last four games: 20/247/0 (WR47 | 11.0 FPG)
The good news is that Moore’s target share has remained strong… He got 29.5% of the Panthers targets in Weeks 1-4 and his TS is 27.3% in Weeks 5-8.
The bad news is that Moore’s drop-off is directly tied to Sam Darnold’s declining play…
In Weeks 1-4, 84% of Moore’s targets were catchable – which was the 14th-highest rate among WRs.
In Weeks 5-8, Moore’s catchable targets dropped to 75% – which ranks 45th-of-64 WRs.
Just five of Moore’s 11 targets of 15+ air yards have been catchable over the last four games.
Khalil Herbert has completely rendered Damien Williams irrelevant. This past week, Herbert played on 84% of the snaps while Williams was at 6%.
Herbert has now seen 18 or more carries and ran for over 70 yards in four-straight.
Not that it matters because neither is usable for fantasy, but Darnell Mooney leads the Bears in targets (42) by a wide margin over Allen Robinson (33) in Justin Fields’ starts.
Joe Mixon appears to be fully over his ankle injury… This past week, Mixon was fourth among all RBs in snap rate (77%) and ran 23 routes to Samaje Perine’s 11.
After largely being used as an underneath / intermediate receiver, Tee Higgins finally got some downfield targets in Week 8. Three of his 6 targets traveled 15+ air yards vs. the Jets.
- Nick Chubb got 16 carries while D’Ernest Johnson got just four this past week, but Chubb’s passing down usage was tame. He ran 13 routes while Johnson ran 12.
The Cowboys next four games are pretty hot matchups if Dak Prescott is back healthy. They get the Von Miller-less Broncos, Falcons, Chiefs, and Raiders next.
Their playoffs schedule (Weeks 15-17) is arguably even better: vs. Giants, Washington, and Cardinals.
As somewhat expected, the Broncos took it easy in Jerry Jeudy’s first game back. He was third on the team in routes run (24) behind Tim Patrick (30) and Courtland Sutton (29).
Jeudy lined up almost exclusively in the slot this past week as 88% of his routes came lined up on the interior.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s return to the lineup after missing three games was not good for Noah Fant. This past week, Fant ran a season-low 21 routes.
In the four full games that Okwuegbunam and Fant have played together, Fant has run a route on 69% of the Broncos pass plays and gotten 21 targets while Okwuegbunam has been involved on 42% of the plays and gotten 11 targets.
In the three games without Okwuegbunam (Weeks 5-7), Fant was a true full-time player and ran a route on 84% of the pass plays.
It seems like TJ Hockenson is getting healthier… He’s seen massive 26% > 24% > 32% target shares over his last three games.
Hock has now seen 8 or more targets in 6-of-8 games so far.
After scoring 33 points in Week 1 vs. the 49ers, the Lions have scored a touchdown on just 14.7% of their drives in their last seven games. That’s the third-worst rate in the league in this span and only ahead of the Bears (14.3%) and Texans (13.5%).
Green Bay Packers
- Aaron Rodgers is unreal. The Packers have put up 34, 23, 42, 31, 37, 30, and 24 points in the seven games that Davante Adams has missed since 2019.
No one will be happier to see Tyrod Taylor than Brandin Cooks…
In six starts with Davis Mills, these are Cooks’ weekly finishes: WR11 > WR51 > WR76 > WR18 > WR46 > WR10.
The Mark Ingram trade led to… Rex Burkhead seeing more snaps! Burkhead played on 49% of the snaps while David Johnson (18%) and Phillip Lindsay (13%) were way behind him. Still gross!
It’s obviously a tiny sample of just six quarters – four of which were against the Jags – but the Texans scored a FG or a TD on 9-of-17 possessions before Tyrod got hurt.
Keep that in mind, because Houston’s following six games were… well, repugnant…
In six games with Mills under center, the Texans mustered 11 scores on 65 drives. Just 11! Tyrod led them to nine scoring drives in just six quarters!
It’s only taken him a year and a half, but Frank Reich is finally giving Jonathan Taylor the role he deserves.
Taylor’s snap rate has increased in seven-straight games: 45% > 48% > 51% > 52% > 65% > 69% > 74%.
The interesting bit is that Taylor is getting way more usage in the passing game. Over the last three weeks, Taylor has run 71 routes while Nyheim Hines has run just 34.
- I give up.
Kansas City Chiefs
It seems like this neck injury that has limited Travis Kelce some in practice is affecting him. Kelce took a big hit back in Week 5 and had a stinger as a result.
Over his last three games, Kelce’s average depth of target has shrunk to 7.1 yards.
In his first five games before injury, Kelce’s aDOT was 9.6 yards.
Even with Kelce and Hill dealing with injuries, Mecole Hardman still can’t breakout. His 49% snap rate vs. Giants marked a season-low.
After spending time on the Chargers and Washington practice squad in 2019 and 2020, Derrick Gore was on the Chiefs practice squad until Week 6 and was elevated to the active roster as a result of the CEH injury. Gore played five snaps in Week 7 and then got 16 snaps on MNF. He could end up replacing Jerick McKinnon.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert’s two worst career passer ratings have come against the Patriots: 43.7 in 2020 and 66.7 this past week.
Mike Williams only got five targets in Week 8, but he at least got back into his normal role. He ran a route on 88% of the Chargers pass plays.
Austin Ekeler’s last six weekly finishes: RB6 > RB8 > RB3 > RB1 > RB29 > RB3.
Ekeler is now averaging 19.9 FPG in 16 career starts with Justin Herbert and has gone over 15 FP 11 times.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are entering the red-zone 4.75 times per game on average, which is No. 1 over the Bills (4.42), Buccaneers (4.38), and Cardinals (4.25).
Darrell Henderson has been a massive beneficiary of the Rams success offensively. He’s been on the field for 90% of the Rams’ plays inside of the 10-yard line.
Henderson is averaging 2 inside-10 opportunities per game, which is eighth-most among RBs.
Cooper Kupp has finished as a top-24 scoring wide receiver in all but one game this year and has five top-6 finishes already.
Dolphins routes in Week 8 with DeVante Parker back: Gesicki (47), Parker (47), Waddle (45).
Mike Gesicki’s target share with Parker this year (in 5 games): 15.8%.
Gesicki’s TS without Parker (in 3 games): 19.5%.
Parker has seen at least 7 targets and has caught at least four balls in every game he’s played this year.
Dolphins RB snaps with Malcolm Brown (quad, IR) out: Gaskin (58%), Ahmed (23%), Laird (14%).
Gaskin was the clear top receiving back… he ran 21 routes while Ahmed and Laird both ran 8.
- Adam Thielen has now scored 18 TDs in his last 22 games. That’s like prime Dez Bryant / Rob Gronkowski scoring.
New England Patriots
Outside of two games against the league’s best run defenses (Saints and Buccaneers) in Weeks 3-4, Damien Harris is averaging 18 carries and 84.5 rushing yards per game.
Harris is averaging 16.0 FPG in his six non-Saints/Bucs games.
Harris’ weekly finishes this year in PPR scoring: RB20 > RB15 > RB56 (vs. Saints) > RB49 (vs. Bucs) > RB27 > RB15 > RB3 > RB19.
New Orleans Saints
With Taysom Hill likely to take over as the starter for the rest of the year, it’s worth revisiting those four starts he made last year in relief of an injured Drew Brees…
Despite averaging just 208.5 passing yards per game, Hill scored 21.6 fantasy points per start because of his legs.
Hill averaged 11.2 rushing fantasy points per game in his four starts last year. For reference, Jalen Hurts is averaging 10.5 rushing FPG this year.
Alvin Kamara got 0, 2, 3, and 10 targets with Taysom last year.
However, there is some much-needed context behind that usage here…
Kamara’s first two games with Taysom were blowouts where the Saints out-scored the Falcons and Broncos 55-12.
The third game (vs. Falcons) was another game where the Saints built a lead early and didn’t need to throw much.
The fourth game, however, was a negative script – the Saints got down 17-0 at halftime to the Eagles and Hill had to throw 38 times in a comeback attempt (and that’s why Kamara got 10 targets).
Bottom line: Small sample overreactions – like thinking Kamara is hurt by Hill starting – doesn’t help.
What does concern me a little is that Kamara played a season-low 67% of the snaps in Mark Ingram’s first game back with the team.
The good news is that Kamara’s role in scoring range was safe. Hopefully that stays the same. Last week, Kamara was on the field for 15 of the Saints 17 plays in the red-zone and got 7 touches.
Deonte Harris (7) and Adam Trautman (6) led the team in targets last week.
New York Giants
- The Giants have scored a TD on just 50% of their red-zone drives, which is the worst rate in the league.
New York Jets
After getting a big role increase last week coming out of the bye, Carter’s role continued to grow in the Jets' shock win over the Bengals. Carter set season-highs in carries (15) and targets (14) as Mike White checked the ball down relentlessly in his 405-yard performance.
Through seven quarters, Carter has gotten 22 targets from White.
Meanwhile, Carter got just 14 targets from Wilson in Weeks 1-5.
Even with Corey Davis out, Elijah Moore didn’t get a bigger role. Jets WR routes in Week 8 were: Mims (44), Crowder (40), Cole (39), Moore (21), and Berrios (15).
Eagles RB snaps without Miles Sanders this past week: Scott (45%), Gainwell (31%), Howard (25%).
All of Gainwell’s work came in mop-up duty, though…
Eagles RB touches in 1st-3rd quarter vs. Lions: Scott (13), Howard (12), Gainwell (1).
The Steelers are averaging 4.1 yards gained on first downs, worst in the league.
Even with his odd two target game in Week 5 mixed in, Diontae Johnson is third among receivers in targets per game (10.5) behind only Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp (11.3).
Chase Claypool is getting a little more burn from the slot recently. He has run 33% of his routes from the slot in two games without JuJu.
In Weeks 1-5, Claypool ran just 19% of his routes in the slot.
San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell has handled a whopping 81% of the 49ers carries in his five starts.
For reference, that is the third-highest carry share among RBs behind only Derrick Henry (95%) and Najee Harris (88%).
The one thing I’ll keep my eye on is how Shanahan splits up the goal-line usage. Over the last two weeks, Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty have split snaps on plays from inside of the 10-yard line (four snaps apiece).
Only six wide receivers have scored over 20 FP four or more times this year: Kupp (6 times), Chase, Hill, Pittman, Deebo, and Mike Williams (4 each).
- After Freddie Swain led the team in targets in Week 7 on MNF, the Seahawks did some much-needed self scouting. They turned around and funnelled Tyler Lockett (13) and DK Metcalf (6) a whopping 88% of the targets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin in three games without Antonio Brown over the last two years: 5/110, 8/111/1, and 8/140/1.
Tom Brady has now finished as the QB6 or better in 6-of-8 games. Incredible.
Since returning in Week 5, AJ Brown is the WR6 in FPG behind only Chase, Adams, Lamb, AB, and Kupp.
AJB’s target share in his last four games have been at an absolute alpha level: 27% > 31% > 32% > 32%.
Washington has been absolutely terrible at turning their red-zone trips into TDs over their last six games. In this span, The Team has scored a TD on just 44% of their red-zone drives – which is the second-worst rate in the league. Only the Lions (38%) have been worse in this span.
In Weeks 1-5, Antonio Gibson’s snap rate was 59% (which ranked 21st among RBs).
Over the last three weeks, Gibson’s snap rate has slipped to 38% (which is 41st among RBs).