Stat-Pack is back in its usual form breaking down every team from every angle.
Last week, I did an overview of the opening month as a whole – including a look at how QB scoring is continuing at a record-breaking pace and a look at how deep the WR pool is.
We’re on to Week 6, though.
While Kyler Murray is playing at an MVP level, he is scrambling less which hurts his upside for our game. Per SIS, Murray is scrambling just 2 times per game – which is tied for 10th with Russell Wilson.
Murray is 12th in scramble yardage per game (19.4).
Last year, Murray averaged 3.2 scrambles per game (third-most) and averaged 30.5 rushing yards (second-most) on those scrambles.
DeAndre Hopkins’ target share through Weeks 1-5 is 20.6% (which is 25th among WRs).
Last year, Hopkins’ target share was 29% (3rd among WRs).
Rondale Moore set a season-high in snaps in Week 5 with 48%. He’s still a hold.
With Calvin Ridley (personal) out, Cordarrelle Patterson broke out for season-highs in carries (14) and snaps (46 total | 59% share) en route to his third-straight game with over 100 scrimmage yards.
Patterson ran 26 routes in Week 5, also a season-high. He was averaging just 14.3 routes per game in Weeks 1-4.
Patterson’s weekly finishes over his last four games: RB4, RB19, RB1, and RB17.
Mike Davis is averaging just 0.74 fantasy points per touch, which is second-fewest among the top-24 scoring RBs.
The Ravens gained 523 yards on MNF. Lamar Jackson accounted for 504 of those yards.
Lamar’s 41.9 fantasy points on MNF is the 16th-highest scoring game by a quarterback all-time.
Lamar has scored over 30 FP 10 times since the start of 2019, which is most among quarterbacks. Josh Allen has nine such games while Patrick Mahomes has seven.
Lamar is averaging a career-high 9.1 YPA… why? Well, he is the most aggressive QB in the league right now. Jackson’s passes are traveling 10.7 yards in the air on average – which easily paces the league. Allen is second in aDOT (9.8).
What is going on with Stefon Diggs?
On the surface level, Diggs’ involvement is fine. He’s seen at least 20% of Josh Allen’s targets in every game and ranks ninth among all WRs in target share overall right behind Tyreek Hill.
Diggs is also second among all WRs in air yards per game (128) right behind Davante Adams (144).
So, what gives? Well, Allen and Diggs just haven’t had the same chemistry as last year. Just 50% of Diggs’ targets of 10 or more yards downfield have been catchable – which is 52nd out of 57 WRs. I’m betting that these two will get on track soon.
The Jets version of Sam Darnold returned against the Eagles which is scary, but the good news is that the Panthers have three cake matchups up next for Darnold to get right: vs. Vikings, at Giants, at Falcons.
Chuba Hubbard handled 24 of the 27 RB carries in Week 5.
Justin Fields has just four (4!!) designed carries in his three starts. That is coaching malpractice.
Just 61.5% of Fields’ throws have been on-target per SIS, which is dead last.
A total of 58 WRs have seen more targets than Allen Robinson over the last month.
Damien Williams only played on 48% of the Bears snaps in Week 5.
However, Williams out-touched Khalil Herbert 13 to 7 in the first half.
Only Randy Moss (104.7) has scored more fantasy points in his first five career games than Ja’Marr Chase (98.4) among rookie WRs all-time.
Chase’s 456 yards ranks fourth-most all-time just behind Anquan Boldin (497), Randy Moss (463), and Stefon Diggs (461).
Kareem Hunt is currently the RB6 in FPG (18.2) while Nick Chubb is RB11 (17.0).
Odell Beckham had zero targets on the Browns final 3 drives with the game against the Chargers on the line, which makes no sense.
Why is Dallas throwing the ball less?
Well, they are a much better team now than last year. The Cowboys have led on 56% of their offensive snaps in Weeks 2-5.
Last year before Dak Prescott got hurt, the Cowboys led on just 6% of their offensive plays.
Beyond being in much more positive game-scripts, the Cowboys have also made a fundamental change to run more on early-downs.
Last year, Dallas went 63% pass-heavy on early downs in neutral situations (game within a score; red-zone plays not included). That led the league.
This year? Dallas is just 53% pass-heavy on early downs in neutral situations – which is middle of the pack at 16th.
Javonte Williams easily leads all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.35) according to PFF.
Even though Williams has clearly been the better runner than Melvin Gordon, we haven’t seen a big increase in snaps. Williams has been stuck in between 40-50% of the snaps so far.
Gordon has also widely out-snapped Williams (98 to 67) on passing downs.
The only thing that I can think of for why T.J. Hockenson has struggled as of late is that he’s really struggling through a knee injury that limited him all of last week.
Even with all of the Lions issues along the offensive line, Hockenson has barely been asked to pass block – he stayed in to protect Jared Goff just three times in Week 5.
Maybe it’s because he’s doing so much as a run blocker? I’m really just throwing stuff against the wall here.
D’Andre Swift is the only running back to see at least 5 targets in every game so far.
Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams has seen 45 targets over the Packers last three games.
Justin Jefferson and Mike Evans have 45 targets… all year.
Dating back to last year, Adams is averaging 25.5 FPG across his last 20 healthy games and has scored 22 TDs in this stretch.
Robert Tonyan has been targeted on just 12.2% of his routes run – which ranks 40th out of 46 qualifying TEs.
- After two tougher matchups, Brandin Cooks gets the Colts (eighth-most FPG to WRs) and the Cardinals (12th-most) next.
Frank Reich is such a frustrating coach. Jonathan Taylor got three targets on the Colts first two drives, one of which he took to the house for an untouched 76 yard TD. Then Taylor got one more target for the rest of the game. Make it make sense!
Taylor ranks fourth-best in EPA per rush (0.12) just behind Kareem Hunt (0.18), Austin Ekeler (0.15), and Tony Pollard (0.13).
35% of Taylor’s carries have generated a first down, which leads the league… but the Colts just have to get Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines involved. They have to!!
Michael Pittman very quietly has 6 or more receptions in four-straight games with weekly finishes of WR13 > WR28 > WR37 > WR14 in this span.
After a very shaky start in Week 1 and 2, Robinson has now seen at least 19 touches in three-straight games and, as a result, has finished as the RB4, RB9, and RB12.
However, he’s still battling The Urb. Robinson got 14 first-half carries in Week 5, and even in a relatively tight ball game (for Jaguars standards), Robinson got just four carries in the second-half. 4!
Kansas City Chiefs
Just how bad is the Chiefs defense? Well…
Kansas City is giving up 7.1 yards per play, which is more than half a yard more than the second-worst team, Detroit (6.5).
They are giving up a score on 54% of their opponents drives (most).
They are allowing 3.29 points per drive (most).
They have generated a sack on just 4% of pass plays (second-lowest rate).
Chiefs RB snaps in Week 5 after Clyde Edwards-Helaire left the game (out of 32 plays): Darrel Williams 24, Jerick McKinnon 8.
Las Vegas Raiders
I have to wonder if Josh Jacobs still isn’t back to 100%. Among the 53 qualifying RBs, Jacobs is 50th in YPC (3.2) and 30th in success rate (39.5%).
The good news is Jacobs played a ton in Week 5 – his very nice 69% snap rate was the fourth-highest of his career.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler has been such a consistent stud since returning from that hamstring injury last year. Over his last 11 games…
Ekeler is averaging 20.4 FPG and has double-digit PPR points in 11-straight.
He’s finished as the RB28 or better in 11-straight and has finished as the RB15 or better in 8-of-11.
He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game in this stretch, which, for reference, would rank third-most among RBs this year just behind D’Andre Swift (7 targets/game) and Najee Harris (7.8).
The biggest thing that has changed for Ekeler this year is this new staff is finally letting him score TDs. Ekeler has gotten six of the Chargers 7 total carries inside of the 5-yard line.
Los Angeles Rams
The squeaky wheel narrative was hot on TNF with Robert Woods getting the fourth-most targets of his career (14).
Tyler Higbee’s usage is great, we just need him to earn a few more targets. Higbee has been on the field for 78% of the Rams passing plays – which is the sixth-highest rate among tight ends.
However, Higbee has been targeted on just 14.3% of his routes – which ranks 36th.
After playing on a season-low 23% of the snaps in Week 4, Myles Gaskin played on 69% of the snaps in Week 5. Makes sense.
Malcolm Brown played just 9% of the snaps in Week 5. In Week 4… he was on the field for 67% of the plays.
Adam Thielen’s Week 5 should have been much better. He had a nice 15-yard gain on a screen called back due to a penalty and had a bad drop on a 12-yarder that would have brought him above 60 yards on the day.
In four career starts, Alexander Mattison has averaged 21.5 fantasy points and 124.8 scrimmage yards per game.
New England Patriots
- Over the last three weeks, $50M TE Jonnu Smith has run a route on 38 of Mac Jones’ 138 dropbacks (28%).
New Orleans Saints
It seems like the Juwan Johnson dream is dead. Johnson ran just four routes in Week 5 while Adam Trautman ran 25.
Obviously Week 4 was just a blip on the radar for Alvin Kamara. He saw 27% of the Saints targets against Washington and has now seen at least 19% of the targets in 4-of-5 games.
New York Giants
Kadarius Toney is forcing a missed tackle on 45% of his receptions, which is second-best among WRs behind Laviska Shenault (50%).
Toney has seen 22% and 33% of Giants’ targets over the last two weeks with Sterling Shepard sidelined.
Devontae Booker played on 60 of 62 snaps after Saquon Barkley went down in Week 5.
New York Jets
Michael Carter’s snap rate has increased in three-straight games: 43% > 51% > 53%.
Elijah Moore ranks 57th of 58 WRs in catchable targets (40%) on throws of 10 or more yards.
Jalen Hurts is such a fantasy stud. His weekly finishes in eight full starts: QB10 > QB1 > QB16 > QB4 > QB10 > QB11 > QB4 > QB11.
Hurts is averaging 61.8 rushing yards per start.
For reference, Lamar Jackson averages 72.9 rush yards per start.
- After getting stonewalled in Week 1, Najee Harris has finished as the RB17, RB1, RB6, and RB10 over his last four games.
San Francisco 49ers
The difference in coaching between the 49ers and Bears and their rookie QBs has been apparent over the last two weeks. Whereas Justin Fields isn’t running by design, Kyle Shanahan called a designed run on 13 of Trey Lance’s 23 carries.
Lance’s target distribution so far (on 48 throws): Deebo Samuel (17), Mohamed Sanu (7), Kyle Juszcyk (6), and Brandon Aiyuk (4).
- Alex Collins played on 71% of the Seahawks snaps with Chris Carson (neck) out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- It seems like Bruce Arians has finally come to his senses with Ronald Jones. Over the last two weeks, Leonard Fournette has out-touched (39 to 12) and out-snapped (109 to 23) Ronald Jones by massive margins.
Derrick Henry leads all running backs in scrimmage yards per game with 153.
The next closest RB is Nick Chubb (111.6).
King Henry is getting 31.2 (!!!) touches per game.
The next closest RB is Alvin Kamara (21.8).
Henry’s touch count over his last 10 games (including playoffs): 28, 26, 23, 34, 21, 21, 41, 31, 35, and 29.
In his return, A.J. Brown was back a in normal full-time role as he ran a route on 24 of Ryan Tannehill’s 27 dropbacks.
JD McKissic has out-targeted Antonio Gibson 17 to 8 over the last four weeks.
Terry McLaurin has seen 49 targets from Taylor Heinicke. No other player from The Team has more than 19.