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Week 10 Game Hub: BAL-MIA

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Week 10 Game Hub: BAL-MIA

Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 3-5-1 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-7, 3-5-1), 8:20 p.m., TNF

Brolley’s Ravens Stats and Trends

  • Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games.

  • The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

  • Baltimore is 5-1 toward unders in its last six road games.

  • Lamar Jackson is coming off his third performance with 32+ FP this season after posting season-highs in carries (21) and rushing yards (120). He added 266/3 passing on 41 attempts (6.5 YPA) with the Ravens racking up a whopping 98 plays while possessing the rock for 46 minutes. Josh Allen went for 249/2 passing and 8/55/1 rushing for 29.5 FPG against the Dolphins in Week 8.

  • Mark Andrews just missed his fourth touchdown of the season last week, and he had to settle for 5/44 receiving on 10 targets. He’s posted 5+ catches in six of his last seven games, but he’s fallen below 50 receiving yards in his last two games after posting 55+ yards in five straight games in Weeks 2-6. The Dolphins are giving up the seventh-most receiving yards per game (65.0) and a generous 9.0 YPT to TEs.

  • Marquise Brown posted his third 100-yard game in nine tries last week, and he’s reached 6+ catches in four contests. He’s averaging career-highs in YPR (14.8), catches per game (5.8), and receiving yards per game (85.3). Brandin Cooks posted 6/56 receiving on 13 targets in this matchup last week.

  • Rashod Bateman saw a career-high eight targets (20% share) for 5/52 receiving with a 66% snap share in Baltimore’s Week 9 victory over the Vikings. Sammy Watkins could miss another game with his hamstring injury with the quick turnaround, and the Dolphins are giving up the fourth-most receiving yards per game (192.8) to WRs.

  • Devonta Freeman has led the backfield in production in three straight games after posting a season-best 13/79 rushing and 2/4/1 receiving on three targets with 58% of the snaps in an overtime victory over the Vikings. Le’Veon Bell handled the rest of the work in this backfield with Latavius Murray (ankle) out of the lineup, posting a season-best 11/48/1 rushing on 23% of the snaps. It was his first game with more than 20+ rushing yards. The Dolphins haven’t been tested by the Bills and Texans the last two weeks, but they’re giving up 4.3 YPC.

Brolley’s Dolphins Stats and Trends

  • The Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games

  • Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five Thursday games.

  • The Dolphins won and covered against the Texans last week despite five turnovers.

  • Tua Tagovailoa couldn’t play against the Texans in Week 9 because of a small fracture in the middle finger of his throwing hand, but the injury isn’t expected to be a long-term issue. The Dolphins averaged just 3.6 yards per play against Houston with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Tua posted 22+ FP in his first two games back from a rib injury in Weeks 6-7, but he stumbled in a tough matchup against the Bills in Week 8 with 16.2 FP. The Ravens have given up 21+ FP to QBs in three of their last four games.

  • Jaylen Waddle is back to being a volume fantasy option with DeVante Parker back on the IR. He’s seen 8+ targets in four straight games, including double-digit targets, 15+ FP, and 70+ receiving yards in his last three contests without Parker in the lineup. The Ravens are giving up just 11.5 catches per game and they’re allowing just a 58.1% catch rate to WRs.

  • Mike Gesicki is averaging 8.0 targets, 5.8 catches, and 74.3 receiving yards per game in the last four games without Parker in the lineup. The Ravens are giving up the second-most FPG (18.4) to TEs this season and Tyler Conklin posted 5/45 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • Myles Gaskin is coming off season-highs in snap share (72%), carries (20), and touches (26), but he turned his massive workload into just 57 yards for 2.2 yards per touch. He did score a touchdown to continue his bizarre trend of alternating down and up games this season. He’s scored double-digit FP five times but he’s yet to do it in consecutive games. The Ravens are giving up a generous 139.0 scrimmage yards per game, including 58.5 receiving yards per game to RBs.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Ravens

Pace (seconds in between plays): 30.2 (28th)

Plays per game: 74.3 (1st)

Pass: 56.0% (26th) | Run: 44.0% (7th)

Dolphins

Pace: 25.9 (3rd)

Plays per game: 68.1 (13th)

Pass: 68.0% (2nd) | Run: 32.0% (31st)

Pace Points

The Ravens (aka Lamar Jackson) are running hotter than any team in the league. Lamar is playing at the highest level of his career and, despite all of their injuries on both sides of the ball, this team is an overtime loss to the Raiders away from being 7-1. Incredible. Baltimore goes as Lamar goes and last week we saw a performance for the history books as the future 2021 MVP became the first QB to have over 40 passes and 20 carries in a regular season game ever. Baltimore has changed up their philosophy somewhat by necessity with their RBs dropping like flies, but Lamar getting more put on his plate is also merit- and personnel-based. The Ravens told us they wanted to throw more this offseason by using their first rounder on Rashod Bateman and bringing in Sammy Watkins. As a result, Lamar is averaging 35.8 pass attempts per game over his last five outings – which is miles ahead of his career average (25.9 passes per game). Lamar has scorched-earth fantasy upside for the rest of the season.

Whether or not we see Tua or Brissett under center, one thing is for sure: Miami is going to throw the rock. They are passing at the third-highest rate above expectation (+7.5%) due in large part to bottom-5 offensive line and bottom-3 backfield talent. Even in a game that the Dolphins controlled throughout, they asked Jacoby Brissett to drop back and pass 47 times compared to just 25 runs against the Texans last week. This is what happens when your starting runner, Myles Gaskin, is averaging 2.81 YPC over the last month. Tell anyone that thinks that running the ball at least somewhat effectively doesn’t matter to take a deep dive into the 2021 Dolphins. As 7.5-point underdogs, we should see another extremely pass-heavy plan from Miami as they try to keep pace with Lamar.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

Check out the results of the last three matchups between Baltimore and Miami:

  • Ravens won 38-6 at M&T Bank Stadium in 2016

  • Ravens won 40-0 at M&T Bank Stadium in 2017

  • Ravens won 59-10 at Hard Rock Stadium in 2019

Outscored 137-to-16, the Dolphins scored one point for every 8.6 for Baltimore. During that ‘19 beatdown, the Ravens ran for 265 yards, and Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards and five TDs.

Marquise Brown shredded Miami for a 4/147/2 receiving line on five targets in that ‘19 game, his NFL debut. Also in that last matchup with Miami in ‘19, Mark Andrews posted an 8/108/1 line on eight targets.

The Ravens recently held Austin Ekeler to 9.5 FPs (Week 6), Joe Mixon to 11.9 (Week 7), and Dalvin Cook to 15.2 (Week 9). My confidence in Myles Gaskin bucking that trend is low.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

The Ravens’ constant barrage of injuries on both sides of the football — but the defense, especially, recently — has fundamentally changed how they have to play.

That means a lot of work, and I mean a lot, for QB Lamar Jackson.

Despite a couple of bad interceptions, Lamar put up massive numbers in Week 9’s win over the Vikings in overtime, in a 65-point shootout that might become commonplace for the Ravens. In addition to going 27/41 for 266 yards with 3 TD and 2 INT as a passer, Lamar ran for 120 yards on 21 totes on Sunday, with only stud RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb running for more yards last week. He has a deep group of receivers with Marquise Brown and TE Mark Andrews now flanked by promising rookie WR Rashod Bateman, and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) could be back imminently.

What’s more, the Ravens’ defense has allowed 26 points per game over the last three contests, 10th-most in the NFL as it continues to pile up injuries (the latest is DB DeShon Elliott, who tore his bicep and pectoral muscles against Minnesota). The Ravens have run 70 plays per game this year, most in the NFL, and a whopping 76 per game over their last three. For a quarterback who impacts literally everything this offense does, that’s going to mean massive, massive fantasy production. Lamar is the QB1 for fantasy, while Brown and Andrews are must-starts. Bateman is an intriguing FLEX against a Dolphins defense that’s given up the 3rd-most FPG to opposing WRs this year.

With Latavius Murray (ankle) likely out again, the Baltimore backfield belongs to two more elder statesmen, Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell. I’ve said all along that I’ve thought Freeman looked the best of the group this year, and it appears the Ravens agree — Freeman played 58% of their offensive snaps, to 23% for Bell, and 18% for Ty’Son Williams in Week 9. Freeman and Bell each scored, while Freeman had 16 opportunities to Bell’s 11. Williams didn’t get a carry or a touch. Freeman is a low-end RB2 and Bell a desperation FLEX.

The Dolphins are one of the NFL’s premier “bad vibes” teams, a 2-7 sinking ship that doesn’t even have its own first-round pick, but they did manage to beat the Texans last week with backup QB Jacoby Brissett, which does say… well, something. Brissett might have to go again this week if Tua Tagovailoa (finger) cannot.

But if Tua does go, our Jake Tribbey is fond of this spot as a streamer (and I, indeed, did mention the Ravens’ constant rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball).

“Tua is dealing with a finger injury that's left him questionable, but should he play, he’s a solid streaming option for those unable to grab either Ryan or Heinicke. From Weeks 6 through 8, prior to injuring his finger, Tagovailoa ranked 12th in PFF passing grades (75.9), 5th in passing yards (825), 7th in TDs (6), and 9th in FPG (21.0). Those are low-end QB1 numbers, and that stretch includes a game against Buffalo — inarguably the toughest defense for opposing QBs allowing just 13.2 FPG.

The Ravens rank middle of the pack in most important pass defense metrics, but Tua has struggled massively under pressure this season (43.1 PFF passing grade under pressure). That’s important as the Ravens blitz at one of the league's highest rates. So, that’s my major concern with Tua this week. The risk of a high-turnover, low fantasy output performance is certainly higher than with Ryan or Heinicke. Still, Tua’s outstanding recent play and the spread of this game (Miami are 7.5-point underdogs) suggests a high-volume passing attack for Miami with strong upside. Tua’s a high-risk, high-reward streamer this week.”

With DeVante Parker (hamstring) on IR and Will Fuller (finger) still out, the Dolphins are relying heavily on WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki for production. Here’s Graham from the Week 10 Market Report on these two target hogs:

“The Texans are truly the get-right spot for every team. With Jacoby Brissett under center once again, Waddle was rock solid with 8/83 receiving on 10 targets. In the four games that Parker has now missed, Waddle has seen 9.3 targets per game and turned those looks into 6.8 receptions and 66.8 yards per outing with two scores. So, even though the Dolphins QB play has been less than consistent, Waddle’s role hasn’t. He’s going to get fed targets because Miami has no other options outside of him and Mike Gesicki. Waddle will be on the WR2 radar in Week 10 on TNF against Baltimore.

Gesicki is now averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 74.3 yards per game in the four games that Parker has missed this season. For reference, Gesicki has seen a huge dip in targets and production with 4.2 receptions and 46.4 yards on 6.2 targets per game in the five contests Parker has played. For as long as Parker is out, we can safely trust Gesicki as a TE1.”

The Dolphins can only fake running the ball — Myles Gaskin had 34 yards on 20 carries last week, though he does enough as a receiver to pay off as a FLEX — and while Tua has been better than Brissett this year, both guys target Waddle and Gesicki a ton.