In the NFL, sophomore players routinely exceed their rookie year fantasy production. In fact, it’s common for most players to see the biggest jump in their career fantasy production take place between year one to year two.
Allen Robinson saw a 62% increase in his fantasy scoring from year 1 to year 2, turning his WR30 ADP into the WR6 finish. D.J. Chark went from WR104 in ADP to WR17 overall, seeing a 459% increase in his FPG and ending the 2019 season as the 9th-most valuable WR by fantasy WAR. D.J. Moore’s 57% increase in scoring made him the 10th-most valuable WR by win rate, despite being WR29 by ADP. Even recent rookie studs like A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf saw their collective FPG go from 12.7 to 17.1 in their sophomore seasons.
At TE, George Kittle (+128%) and Mark Andrews (+105%) recently had sophomore FPG bumps that sent them from mid-range TE2s to top-5 TEs. Just last season, T.J. Hockenson converted a TE14 ADP into the 5-most valuable WAR among TEs, thanks to a 61% increase in his FPG.
With this in mind, 2nd-year players immediately stand out as some of the players most likely to exceed their ADP in a league-winning way. This is a best ball article, so we will largely be ignoring consistency and focusing primarily on upside as we work through the fantasy-relevant sophomores. You can read more on why here.
I’ll touch on WRs and TEs, with special consideration given to the guys I’m drafting at the highest clip in the ‘Top Targets’ section of each position along with some guys I’m tempted by in the ‘Potential Value’ section.
Wide Receivers
Quick Hits
Henry Ruggs led the Raiders, and was 6th in NFL last year, in aDOT (17.3) on his way to a WR89 finish. Unfortunately, he was massively out targeted (82-43) by Nelson Agholor. With John Brown being brought in as Agholor’s replacement, an offense that’s been below-average in pass rate the last two seasons, a QB in Derek Carr who has targeted WRs on a league-low 47% of attempts since 2016, and a role mostly limited to deep balls, I don’t believe Ruggs sees the target increase he’ll need to be a significant value at WR58 on Underdog and WR60 on BestBall10s.
The WR8 on Underdog and WR7 on BestBall10s, Justin Jefferson is (rightfully) being treated as a premier fantasy WR after recording one of the strongest rookie receiving seasons ever in Minnesota. Jefferson’s 2.66 YPRR (2nd) and 1,400 receiving yards (3rd) are simply jaw-dropping for a rookie, and I don’t see his success slowing down in year two. Understandably, he’s already priced close to his sophomore ceiling, negating any obvious value.
Jerry Jeudy led the Broncos in targets (110), but crucially tied with A.J. Green for the most uncatchable targets (35) in the league. WR59 in FPG last year, Jeudy’s a poor value as the WR34 on Underdog and WR37 on BestBall10s given the expectation of poor QB play and the return of target-hog Courland Sutton. Is there some Aaron Rodgers wishful thinking baked in to his ADP?
Jalen Reagor ranked 124th of 129 qualifying WRs in actual vs expected fantasy production, scoring 1.9 points below expectation per game. Reportedly moving to the slot this season, Reagor is a lock to see an increase on the 4.9 TGTs/GM he earned last year. His brutal slot efficiency (0.52 YPRR on 11 targets) is concerning, but it’s also far too small of a sample to draw significant conclusions from (the Eagle offense was also totally broken last year). I’m keeping a close eye on Reagor in PPR in case he starts to fall, but am mostly laying off at his current BestBall10s price of WR52.
Tee Higgins finished as the WR38 in FPG, but saw incredibly consistent volume, earning 8+ targets in nine games, and 5+ in 13 games. Similar to last season, I’d expect the Bengals to throw at a high enough rate to sustain three 100+ target WRs, while the addition of Ja’Marr Chase should take some defensive attention away from Higgins. However, it’s difficult to see clear value at the quite optimistic price of WR25 on Underdog and BestBall10s.
Denzel Mims averaged 5.0 TGTs and 6.7 FPG in his nine healthy games last year for the Jets. WR70 on Underdog and WR60 on BestBall10s, Mims is a risky pick as he’s reportedly working with the second-team behind 5th-year WR Keelan Cole. If Mims can fight Cole off and earn a starting outside role in this new offense, he has WR3 potential. I’m not sure that’s likely, so I’m mostly laying off.
Posting an impressive 12.1 FPG from Weeks 12-17, Gabriel Davis is, unfortunately, competing with veteran Emmanuel Sanders to be the WR3 in Buffalo. The 10.8 xFP and 5.4 targets Davis averaged in John Brown’s absence last year show he’ll see respectable volume with the WR3 spot all to himself, but the presence of Sanders in a generally crowded WR corps stonewalls the likelihood of a WR3 monopoly for Davis in one of the league’s best passing attacks.
Initially hampered by injury, Michael Pittman hit his stride in the 2nd-half of the season, playing on 83.4% of Indy’s offensive snaps and seeing 5.33 targets per game from Weeks 9-17. He’s a full-time starter, and that’s certainly valuable, but given the uncertainty over the quality of play we can expect from Carson Wentz and an offense that’s targeted WRs at the 8th-lowest rate over the last three seasons, I’m not fawning over the value here.
Bryan Edwards posted strong efficiency numbers on a worryingly low sample size of 14 total targets in his rookie year with the Raiders. He was on the field for just 23.6% of offensive snaps (in the 12 games he was active) last season and won’t approach a starter-level snap count without Henry Ruggs or John Brown missing time. He is yoked up, however.
Van Jefferson should see the bulk of WR3 snaps after Josh Reynolds left behind 492 routes and 77 targets. Tutu Atwell and DeSean Jackson will limit Jefferson’s usage on gimmick plays and deep shots, but Jefferson still realistically projects for around 50-60 targets in what should be a high-scoring, efficient offense for the Rams. I like Jefferson as a late-round pairing with Matthew Stafford with his ADP of WR86 on Underdog and WR78 on BestBall10s.
Even as backup slot man to Danny Amendola, Quintez Cephus recorded at least two receptions in every contest from Weeks 9-17 for the Lions. He never exceeded 15.0 PPR points in any game during that stretch and exceeded 10.0 just twice. He’s likely to earn the majority of the 8.1 xFP/G Amendola averaged in 2020, but playing the slot in arguably the worst offense in the NFL makes Cephus’ ceiling perhaps the least enticing of any WR in this article.
Jalen Guyton was 5th on the Chargers in targets (52) and 4th in red zone targets (18). Currently battling Josh Palmer and Tyron Johnson for playing time, Guyton won’t repeat his impressive 78.3% snap share from last year, but he does offer big-play upside (four receptions of 40+) at a borderline-free ADP of WR109 on Underdog and WR105 on BestBall10s.
Collin Johnson averaged 4.5 targets and 9.8 FPG from Weeks 12-15. His five end zone targets tied Laviska Shenault for 4th on the team. He should see rotational usage as a deep-threat and red zone option, giving him decent game-to-game upside, but it’s unlikely to be enough for Johnson to be viable outside of the deepest best ball leagues.
Potential Values
The Jaguars’ most-targeted WR within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, Laviska Shenault was quite impressive from an efficiency standpoint on his way to a WR45 finish. He scored double-digit points in 8/14 games, including averaging an impressive 15.3 FPG and 7.2 targets in his final five contests.
Don’t confuse his low-aDOT (6.6) with low-upside, as Shenault is an awesome talent. Only four other WRs had a higher broken tackle/reception rate, just Michael Thomas and Cole Beasley had a better contested-catch percentage, and Shenault also recorded the 15th-best PFF receiving grade vs man coverage. Better yet, he’s looked phenomenal through the offseason thus far. The uncertainty of an Urban Meyer offense along with a rather crowded receiving room pushes Shenault just off the “Top Targets” list, but he still carries solid upside at WR41 on Underdog and BestBall10s.
K.J. Hamler’s 5.6 targets and 9.1 FPG in the 10 games he saw a target would’ve ranked 59th and 68th over the full season. The questionable QB situation and an incredibly talented receiving corps are suppressing Hamler’s ADP, and I think too much, especially on a full-PPR site like BestBall10s where Hamler clocks in at WR89.
Top Targets
1. Chase Claypool, WR, Pit
Underdog ADP: WR30 / BestBall10s ADP: WR27
The WR32 in FPG (13.6), Chase Claypool notably contributed the 5th-best game by a WR in 2020 (42.6 FPs). A massive body at 6’4”, 238, Claypool was primarily used as an outside deep-threat, leading Pittsburgh in targets of 10+ yards (55) and red zone targets (28). One of the most inconsistent players in fantasy football last year, Claypool makes for an elite best ball selection since he offers an outstanding ceiling and you’ll never have to worry about when to play him. With just a 63% snap share in the regular season, additional playing time is certainly available to the 22-year-old this season if he can continue his development.
That continuation could propel Claypool to the WR1 spot in Pittsburgh this season. As a rookie, he was already the Steelers’ most efficient WR by fantasy points/route (0.49), YPRR (2.0), Y/REC (14.1), YAC/REC (5.37), passer rating when targeted (116.7), and PFF receiving grade (76.1). If he sees anywhere close to 150 targets, we have a legitimate WR1 on our hands.
Ben Roethlisberger’s failing arm strength hurts Claypool as much as any PIT WR given his team-leading 13.8 aDOT, and when combined with the potential of a more run-heavy approach, it’s easy to see how Claypool fails. But I can’t help but love a player as talented as Claypool, especially when he’s a lock to earn the plurality of 10+ yard targets on a Pittsburgh team that recorded a 65% pass rate last year.
2. Darnell Mooney, WR, Chi
Underdog ADP: WR50 / BestBall10s ADP: WR54
Ranking 6th among all WRs in missed tackles forced/REC (0.28) and 2nd on the Bears in targets (94) and routes (524), Darnell Mooney was quite a surprise in his rookie season as WR50. He was used in a variety of ways — another impressive feat for a rookie — leading the team in deep targets (23) and screens (8). While quite unlikely, there is also the possibility of an Allen Robinson holdout, which would give Mooney league-winning upside as the WR1 in Chicago. Regardless, another near-100 target season is a guarantee for the 2nd-year WR, and that’s not something we can confidently say about many of the WRs being drafted a round or two ahead of Mooney.
With 28 uncatchable targets last season (9th-most), Mooney’s most significant bullish note is that both Andy Dalton and Justin Fields should be able to deliver more on-target passes, and in general increase the fantasy floor of this Bears passing attack. The QB upgrade hasn’t been priced in yet, and that’s something worth targeting.
3. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
Underdog ADP: WR27 / BestBall10s ADP: WR24
Brandon Aiyuk was WR18 in FPG (15.4) while impressively offering 7 games of more than 17.5 points and 4 games with 10+ targets. With Kendrick Bourne leaving behind 72 total targets and 33 vacated targets from 10+ yards (2nd-most on team), Aiyuk is set up to be the clear-cut #1 WR for SF, especially from deep. SF is a low-aDOT scheme, but a borderline monopoly of their deep targets give Aiyuk arguably the highest game-to-game fantasy ceiling of any 49er, while the departure of Bourne lifts his overall target floor to that of a safe WR3.
It is important to remember that five out of seven of Aiyuk’s best games came without George Kittle, and four out of seven came without Deebo Samuel. Trey Lance entering the fold at QB could tilt the scales further in the “run-heavy” direction SF has leaned to during the Kyle Shanahan era, limiting the likely target increase for Aiyuk. While those are valid concerns, the high-aDOT, 100+ target upside more than makes up for it.
Tight Ends
Quick Hits
Cole Kmet was TE41 for the entirety of 2020 but was TE23 from weeks 12-17, out-targeting Jimmy Graham 33 to 19 over that stretch. Kmet’s post-Week 11 shift to a starter-level snap allocation (over 75% in each contest) firmly lifts him into the TE2 range.
Harrison Bryant led all CLE TEs in snaps from the slot and outside, and crucially out-targeted (14 to 10) and out-snapped (134 to 111) David Njoku in the three games Austin Hooper was absent.
With Noah Fant inactive in Week 6 and hobbled in Week 7, Albert Okwuegbunam saw 13 targets for 105 yards before eventually tearing his ACL in Week 9. With Fant active, however, Okwuegbunam recorded just 2 targets over the rest of the season. He becomes quite interesting if Fant gets hurt, but only if … and if his rehab goes well.
Neither Devin Asiasi nor Dalton Keene panned out as rookies for New England, combining for just 12 total targets. With Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry now on the roster, both sophomores are fighting to stay off the practice squad.
Potential Value
While technically in his third season of pro football, Donald Parham is in his second NFL season, thus making this list. Let’s start with the obvious: Parham is a physical freak at 6’8”, 240, and has shown elite receiving ability at the pro level. In the XFL’s lone Spring season, Parham had the third-most receiving yards, second-most targets and fifth-most receptions of any receiver. And he was also the only TE to rank in the top-20 of any of those statistics.
My take? Hunter Henry’s 87 vacated targets aren’t going to 34-year-old Jared Cook or 3rd-round rookie Tre’ McKitty, the majority are going to Donald Parham. While McKitty — a Greg Cosell favorite — could be considered a long-term threat to Parham, he’s doubtful to be one this year as he lacks strong athletic traits or significant draft capital behind him. He’s the most talented pass-catching TE on the team and is just 23. He’s going to get the lion’s share of end zone targets and has legit double-digit touchdown potential. At TE35 on Underdog and TE33 on BestBall10s, Parham offers high-end TE2 upside for a TE3 ADP.
Top Targets
1. Adam Trautman, TE, New Orleans Saints
Underdog ADP: TE15 / BestBall10s ADP: TE23
With 164 vacated targets (8th-most), the Saints are in desperate need of a pass-catching option not named Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara. New Orleans has been far from a TE-centric offense, with just 16% of their pass attempts going towards that position over the last four seasons (4th-worst). Regardless, we still saw TE1 outputs from Jared Cook (TE7) in 2019, Benjamin Watson (TE11) in 2017, and Jimmy Graham, who was no worse than the overall TE2 from 2011-2014. Cook, specifically, ranked top-8 among TEs last year in deep targets (10) and end zone targets (10) despite seeing the 20th-most targets. Over the past two seasons, Cook hit double-digit fantasy points 17 times. Only Darren Waller and Travis Kelce did it more. That’s a high-value role completely up for grabs.
With his primary competition being Nick Vannett, Adam Trautman is a lock to start at TE for the Saints. At worst, he produces a low-end TE2 season similar to what we saw from Watson in 2018 (TE21) or Cook last year (TE18). At best, he’s a mid-range TE1. It’s a big “if,” but if Jameis Winston starts at QB for the Saints all year, that best-case scenario for Trautman starts to look a lot closer to reality. He’s my favorite TE value at BestBall10s (TE23) but lacks comparable value on Underdog, where he’s already been bid up to TE15.
