For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more volume. And more volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Note: All pace/play stats are from RotoViz and cover the last eight weeks (Week 8-15).
Fast-paced games
Falcons (6th in pace) vs. Chiefs (5th)
This one is easy. Both the Falcons and Chiefs are among the quickest paced attacks in the league and extremely pass-heavy in all situations. Atlanta is top-10 in pass rate when leading and when trailing while Kansas City has nearly completely abandoned their run game. Over the last eight weeks, the Chiefs are the third-most pass-heavy team when leading (60%) and they’re the sixth-most pass-heavy team when trailing (73%). And why wouldn’t Andy Reid just let Patrick Mahomes rip it against the Falcons? Atlanta’s run defense has remained stout and opposing offenses are correctly identifying them as a pass funnel. Team’s facing the Falcons have gone 63% pass-heavy this season, which is the third-highest rate behind only the Buccaneers and Seahawks (65%). We should expect a very similar game-plan from the Chiefs as last week when they went 70% pass-heavy in the first-half against the Saints.
Lions (11th in pace) vs. Buccaneers (3rd)
Matthew Stafford somehow gutted it out and played last week and with Stafford in there, the Lions matchup with the Titans went to the moon as the two teams combined for 71 points. Ridiculously, this marked the seventh time in the last eight weeks where the Lions have been involved in a game where both teams have combined for 54 points. That’s right. The Lions last eight games have combined for the following point totals: 62, 54, 57, 20, 66, 64, 55, and 71. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are going to throw the ball relentlessly at the Lions banged-up secondary, which feeds right into the way they want to play. Tampa Bay has gone 64% pass-heavy when the game is within a score over the last eight weeks, which is the second-highest rate behind only Pittsburgh (69%). Expect another shootout and plenty of opportunities for both offenses to put up fantasy points.
Eagles (4th in pace last two weeks) vs. Cowboys (17th)
With Jalen Hurts under center, the Eagles have really ticked up their pace on offense. Philadelphia has gotten to the line of scrimmage at the fourth-fastest rate (25 seconds in between snaps) in Week 14-15, which wouldn’t be too far off of the Cardinals’ league-leading clip (24.8) over the last eight weeks. The Cowboys are playing much slower with Andy Dalton, but with the Eagles pushing the pace and scoring on offense, it should lead to a few more scoring opportunities for the Cowboys. Vegas is on it, too. They have the over/under set at 49.5, which is the fifth-highest on this slate.
Slow-paced games
Dolphins (20th in pace) vs. Raiders (26th)
The Raiders are playing incredibly slow and dominating the time of possession in their games. This season, Vegas is third (3:05) behind only Green Bay (3:12) and Carolina (3:10) in time of possession. We’ll see if Derek Carr (groin) can make it back in time to play — he got in a full practice on Wednesday — which would likely lend itself to a different game-plan from HC Jon Gruden. Regardless, outside of Darren Waller, this game is fairly thin for fantasy options.
Giants (18th in pace) vs. Ravens (31st)
The Ravens have finally started to pick it up on offense in recent weeks and have gotten back to their high-scoring, but slow-paced run-first attack. Over the last eight weeks, the Ravens have gone 55% run-heavy when trailing (highest) and 63% run-heavy when leading (second-highest). They are masters at draining the clock and sustaining drives and it has led to a low-volume attack overall as they are only getting off 65.4 plays per game (sixth-fewest). We’ll see if Daniel Jones (hamstring, ankle) can make it back in time to play, but even if he does, I’m not sure it will matter. Vegas has the over/under here tabbed at 45, the second-lowest on the slate.
Browns (29th in pace) vs. Jets (24th)
After potentially losing out on the Trevor Lawerence sweepstakes and beating the Rams last week, it’ll be interesting to see if the Jets come out flat against the Browns. Just like last week, the Jets are liable to get blown out of the water and I think we’ll see just that as the Browns will look to pound the rock and set up play-action with Baker Mayfield against New York’s league-worst secondary. The Jets play slow and are sluggish on offense, which has led to them averaging just 58.4 plays per game over the last eight weeks. That is, by far, the fewest amount in the league in this span. The over/under is up to 47.5, but that’s mainly just the Browns getting the respect they deserved in this spot. Only the Chiefs (33.3), Buccaneers (31.8), and Packers (29.3) have higher implied scoring totals than the Browns (28.8).
