Caplan's Week 17 Insider Fantasy Notebook

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Caplan's Week 17 Insider Fantasy Notebook

Dynasty Insider

Running Backs

JK Dobbins/BAL: Despite his obvious talent, Dobbins is only averaging 7 carries and 8.9 touches per game. Because of this, you might be able to steal him away from a frustrated fantasy owner.

Dobbins will almost certainly be their main RB next year, so go get him now.

UPDATE 12/20: As you've probably noticed lately, he finally has a clearly defined role and veteran RB Mark Ingram is a non-factor.

Cam Akers/LAR: Unfortunately, it has been a struggle for him this season and he has been mired in a RBBC.

However, let's keep in mind Akers was drafted to be a 3-down RB and that should happen next season. He badly needs a full off-season of work (OTAs, training camp, pre-season).

UPDATE 12/13: Well, don't say I didn't warn you. He finally had his breakout game against the Patriots, so it's going to be tough to trade for him now. But if the price is reasonable, go get him.

UPDATE 12/27: With Akers (high ankle) unlikely to play in Week 17, now is the time to trade for him for next season.

UPDATE 1/3: Akers actually has a chance to play after getting some light work in on Friday, but again, it's time to trade for him.

Zack Moss/BUF: He dealt with a lingering toe injury for several weeks, so Moss got off to a slow start, but at least he's evened himself up with 2nd-year RB Devin Singletary.

Moss is a better fit for their running game than Singletary, so look for him to take over the starting job next year.

Rashaad Penny/SEA: ADDED 12/13: He has been mostly an underachiever and is coming off a multi ligament knee injury, but could factor in a big way next season. And you might recall he started to look really good before his injury last season.

UPDATED 12/20: He was activated from reserve/PUP, so he'll get some playing time the rest of the way.

Jeff Wilson/SF: ADDED 12/27: Veteran RB Raheem Mostert has proven to be unreliable due to his injury history and Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon's contracts are set to expire in March, leaving Wilson as the logical choice as the starter.

Wilson has shown to be a decisive, power runner with good vision and instincts. And he is underrated as a pass catcher.

Myles Gaskin/MIA: ADDED 12/27: He doesn't have a 100-yard rushing game yet, but the 2nd-year pro has clearly established himself as their starter and has really good versatility (9 games, 37 receptions).

Damien Harris/NE: ADDED 12/20: He'll have a shot to be their primary early down back next year.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn/TB: ADDED 12/27: With Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy unlikely to return next season, Vaughn could be their starter of the future.

LaMical Perine/NYJ: He's on IR and wasn't used enough before he got hurt, but with better coaching next season, the team will be able to take advantage of Perine's versatility.

Benny Snell/PIT: If James Conner isn't re-signed, Snell would likely be the next man up.

A.J. Dillon/GB: His rookie season has been a washout, but Dillon could factor heavily next season and beyond if the team does not re-sign RBs Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams. UPDATE 1/3: It was encouraging to see him finally get on the field last week (21-1242 TDs), so we could be looking at a two-RB backfield next season with him and Jones.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman/IND: He got off to a very slow start and then had leg surgery, which helped to curtail the first half of his rookie season. However, since returning from his surgery, Pittman has shown that he's going to be a factor as their "X" WR for now and the future. Because his numbers have been up and down in the 2nd half, you might be able to steal him away for a decent price.

Gabriel Davis/BUF: The team loves him and while he hasn't put up big numbers, Davis has already shown he can handle a variety of roles (X, Z) in their passing game. He has a good chance to be their starting "X" WR next season over veteran John Brown.

Michael Gallup/DAL: ADDED 12/13: Don't blame him for the low numbers. He's really talented and will be really good next season with a healthy Dak Prescott.

Bryan Edwards/LVR: He was dealing with a high ankle sprain for several weeks, so he has been trying to make up for lost time. Edwards was drafted to be their "X" WR and that will happen beginning next year. You might as well go get him now when he should be cheap to acquire.

Jalen Reagor/PHI: It has been a struggle for him as Reagor has battled 2 different injuries which have contributed to a disappointing season. And it doesn't help that his QB has been struggling mightily. He'll benefit from better coaching and a lot more work with Carson Wentz starting in next year's OTAs. Reagor will eventually be one of the better "Z" WRs, but it's going to take some time.

UPDATE 12/27: Their starting QB for 2021 is unclear, but what's clear to us is how explosive Reagor is. He looked great on tape against the Cardinals (QB Jalen Hurts missed him for a sure TD on a post route where Reagor ran by CB Patrick Peterson).

Mecole Hardman/KC: ADDED 12/13: He should take over as the starter for veteran WR Sammy Watkins, whose contract will expire in March. I want any starting WR for the Chiefs who runs well in my fantasy lineups and Hardman does just that.

Darnell Mooney/CHI: ADDED 12/13: He's already their starting "Z" WR and was impressive beginning during the first week of training camp. He's a good QB and OL away from being an every week fantasy starter in the future.

Laviska Shenault/JAX: ADDED 12/20: The current staff has yet to figure out how to use him, but the rookie should be a bigger factor next year and beyond under a new staff.

Denzel Mims/NYJ: He missed just about all of training camp injuries to both hamstrings, but Mims has shown to be a big-play WR (16.7 yards per catch).

Henry Ruggs/LVR: He has been surprisingly quiet this season and he has dealt with some minor injuries along the way. However, Ruggs will be a big factor in the future as the team figures out a better way to get the ball in his hands.

Darius Slayton/NYG: He has only had a small handful of good games this season, but that's because the timing has been off between him and QB Daniel Jones. They'll get that fixed in the next off-season.

K.J. Hamler/DEN: As one of the top speed threats for this year's NFL Draft, Hamler is incredibly explosive. He just has to show that he can stay healthy and he'll also benefit from a full off-season of work.

Parris Campbell/IND: ADDED 1/3: He has had terrible luck with injuries over his first two seasons (has missed 23 games), but was drafted to be their "Z" WR. Has the talent to be really good in that role.

Andy Isabella/ARI: He'll take over their slot position as early as next season and he's a vertical threat from that area.

Josh Reynolds/LAR: He likely will be starting for another team next season and Reynolds has intriguing size and speed for the position.

Quintez Cephus/DET: He could start as early as next season if the team does not re-sign veteran WR Marvin Jones. Cephus was one of the smartest rookie WRs for this year's NFL Draft.

Travis Fulgham/PHI: ADDED 1/3: He led the NFL in receiving yardage this season during a 4-week span, but lost his starting job a few weeks after veteran WR Alshon Jeffery came back from injury due to inconsistent practice performances. Fulgham has the makings of being a really good "X" WR, but he'll need to regain the trust of the coaches if he's going to have a chance to start again.

Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway/NO: One of them will start eventually for veteran WR Emmanuel Sanders.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert/PHI: The Eagles drafted him to eventually replace veteran TE Zach Ertz and that should happen next season. Goedert's talent is obvious and he could easily be a top-5 to top-7 TE if the coaches do a better job of getting him the ball.

Noah Fant/DEN: He does get hurt a lot and QB Drew Lock is inconsistent, but Fant is a mismatch for defenses. He'll easily be a top-10 TE for the future if relatively healthy.

UPDATE 12/20: Once again, he proved to be a mismatch during this week's game against the visiting Bills (8-68-1 TD-11 targets).

Irv Smith/MIN: ADDED 1/3: He has scored 5 TDs in his last 5 games and has shown to be at least a red zone threat. And Smith has the upside to be a top-10 TE due to his talent. But his upside is capped somewhat due to HC Mike Zimmer's influence on the passing game (wants a low attempt total for his QB).

Cole Kmet/CHI: He's taking over the starting job now over veteran Jimmy Graham and the team is very high on him for the future.

Adam Trautman/NO: He's the future at the position and with Sean Payton calling the plays, Troutman could be a big piece of the passing game starting as early as next season.

Dawson Knox/BUF: He's dealt with a bunch of injuries this season, but the 2nd-year pro is a vertical threat at the position and the team remains very high on him.

UPDATE 12/20: He has scored in 3 out of his last 4 games and is becoming a bigger factor in their passing game.

Harrison Bryant/CLE: ADDED 1/3: This is more of a dynasty league prospect. Bryant will be a backup for 2021, but has a chance to start in 2022 when the team can get out of TE Austin Hooper's contract without issue. The team sees Bryant as an "all around" TE, who can play in-line and in the slot due to his versatility.

Selected Game Notes

Week 17 is the hardest to navigate for various reasons--for playoff teams especially.

Teams with little or nothing on the line (see the Chiefs) will rest their starters or play them very little. Some teams that have playoff seedings on the line will choose to play their starters for a quarter or half, but won't take the risk of playing them for most or the entire game because they have to play next week (remember there is only 1 bye per conference this season).

But there is some value if you can spot situations correctly for daily fantasy, especially.

ATL-TB

Falcons: The Falcon offense got a break this week with the Buccaneers dealing with several key players being placed on reserve/COVID-19 list or not expected to play due to injury: DT Steve McLendon (C-19), ILB Devin White (C-19), OLB Shaq Barrett (C-19), CB Carlton Davis (groin-doubtful/not expected to play).

It's hard to imagine that QB Matt Ryan can't put up good numbers in this game with so many key Buccaneer defensive players not playing, even without WR Julio Jones (hamstring-out).

NO-CAR

Saints: Due to RBs Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week, RB/WR Ty Montgomery and QB Taysom Hill are expected to see a decent amount of carries in today's game. The team also added UDFA RB Tony Jones from their practice squad for this game, so he could get some work as well.

MIN-DET

Lions: They'll get a huge break, as the Vikings will be without 5 starters: 2 DEs, MLB, CB, nickel CB.

QB Matthew Stafford (rib, right thumb) practiced more this week than he did last week, but as we saw in last week's game, it's hard to totally trust that he can finish the game. If he can, there are a lot of points to be had against a very injured Viking defense.

WAS-PHI

Washington: Rain is expected for the majority of this game, as of Sunday AM.

QB Alex Smith will start unless he has a setback in pregame warm-ups. And starting WR Terry McLaurin (high ankle-questionable) has not practiced in the last two weeks, but the team is not requiring him to practice in order to play. Still, he's dealing with his 2nd high ankle sprain and who knows how long he'll last if he does wind up playing. Good matchup against a struggling Eagle defense, but there's risk due to his injury.

As of Friday evening, the team felt rookie RB Antonio Gibson (turf toe-questionable) would be to play today despite not practicing this week.

Eagles: This should be a good week to use the Washington defense, as the Eagles are down to two backup OTs on the offensive line and they won't have RB Miles Sanders (knee-out) for this game.