General Rules for Creating Showdown/MVP Lineups
Correlate with your Captain/MVP - Make sure you are creating a roster that makes sense with your 1.5x player.
On DraftKings, lean RB/WR in the captain. Though QB can finish as the optimal captain, it’s often overused by the field relative to its success rate. When you are using a QB in the captain, I like to use a lot of his pass-catchers. Because the likely scenario if a QB ends up as the captain on DK is he spreads his touchdowns around to multiple receivers and not one skill player had a ceiling game.
On FanDuel the MVP spot doesn’t cost you 1.5x salary which means you’re just trying to get the highest scoring player in that spot. Contrary to DK, it’s often the QB because of the scoring system. I would lean QB/RB on FD, but there are always exceptions to the rule.
Leave salary on the table - I’m not just talking about a few hundred. Don’t be afraid to leave a few thousand on the table. In a slate that has an extremely limited number of viable options, there is a much greater chance for lineup duplication. It may not seem like much of an issue, but it can decimate your expected value to put in lineups that are going to split with 500 other people.
Multi-enter if you can. Single-game slates have so much variance that the first play of the game can take you completely out of contention if you only have one lineup. It’s best to build a bunch of lineups (you don’t have to max enter) that concentrate on different game scripts and a handful of different correlated captains.
DST and Kickers, while not very exciting, usually offer a solid floor for cheap. Especially in game scripts that go under expected point totals. I would only use at most two per lineup.
When creating single-game lineups, the most important part is creating correlated lineups according to a projected game script, and not pinpointing the exact five or six players who will score the most fantasy points on the slate.
Captain
Davante Adams gets such a large target share in this offense, I prefer him to Aaron Rodgers in the captain spot. That doesn’t mean Rodgers isn’t a viable captain, but the scoring on DraftKings especially makes high volume wide receivers a bit more valuable. That being said there’s definitely a path to Rodgers hitting his ceiling without Adams, though it’s not very likely. You can reserve a few lineups for Rodgers in the captain without Adams in the flex. You’ll have to add guys like Robert Tonyan or Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the flex. I think we can take a limited shots on MVS at captain as well. He doubled up Adams in air yards in Week 1 (102-51) and had an average depth of target at 17.
Aaron Jones should have running lanes against this Lions’ run defense. Jones in the captain offers really good leverage off Adams lineups. Because Adams is often used as the goal line back, in that they like to run tunnel screens or rub routes to get him the ball. If Jones were to capture some of that touchdown variance, it would be at the expense of Davante Adams. He’s a more than capable receiver, so it doesn’t preclude you from rostering Rodgers in Jones lineups.
Both Lions’ running backs are a captain consideration. DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams both were electric last week, especially in the passing game. I’ll lean Williams for a few reasons. His price is less prohibitive and it’s a revenge game. I don’t necessarily believe in the revenge game narrative in terms of players play harder, but I do believe the coaching staff would try to get him in the end zone this week more than any other. They were involved enough in the passing game last week that I think they can be played together or with Goff.
TJ Hockenson is the Lions’ top pass-catcher no question. If this game gets out of hand, I think the game script could dictate Hockenson being the captain. He could get crazy volume. He racked up 11 targets and appears to be Goff’s favorite target. The Lions wide receivers leave a lot to be desired, which we’ll keep Hock getting fed.
Flex
Jared Goff is not going to make many of my lineups. His smash week against the 49ers last week has him at five figures on DraftKings as a flex play, I just can’t see him getting there at that price. I’ll have him in the flex in some of my Hock or Swift captain teams, but he isn’t a priority.
Despite not being a solid unit, the Lions’ receiving unit will probably be the key that unlocks the slate. Meaning you’re going to need the correct cheap Lions’ receiver in your lineups. Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t impress in week one, but I still am a believer in his talent and role out of the slot. Oddly enough the leading receiver in terms of usage was Trinity Benson who spent the entire preseason with the Broncos. Quintez Cephus and Khalif Raymond led the way in air yards with 99 and 80 respectively. The best approach is probably to cycle them through your multi-entry lineups because it’s difficult to plant a flag here.
AJ Dillon looked like the better running back last week against the Saints, not by much, but better nonetheless. He’s a massive price savings and could get lucky with some variance at the goal line. A big Dillon game takes away from Jones, Rodgers, and Adams. I like using Dillon with the tertiary pieces on the Packers like MVS or Tonyan and the DST.
Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb are the last two pieces of the Packers’ offense I think are viable. Tonyan needs touchdowns to hit value, so I wouldn’t stack him up with other touchdown dependent players like AJ Dillon. In Rodgers captain lineups, adding Cobb as a third receiver, hoping Rodgers spreads the ball around to multiple pass-catchers. If you need need sub $1,000 dart, Marcedes Lewis and Amari Rodgers will get on the field for 15-20 snaps and, although a slim chance, could hit the play that unlocks the studs in the rest of your lineups.
Correlated Lineup Starters
Captain: Aaron Rodgers
Flex: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan, TJ Hockenson
Captain: Davante Adams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, TJ Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Captain: Aaron Jones
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, DeAndre Swift, Quintez Cephus
Captain: Jamaal Williams
Flex: Aaron Rodgers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Randall Cobb
Captain: TJ Hockenson
Flex: Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams, Davante Adams
