Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).
For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford, LAR at MIN ($6.7K DK | $7.9K FD)
Projected Ownership:
DraftKings: 13-16%
FanDuel: 12-15%
Week 14 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Results: 23-of-30, 287 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 23.5 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Schemes: 6th-highest rate of Cover 2, 11th-highest of Cover 4, 6th-highest of Cover 6
Allowances:
The most FPG to offenses the last 4 weeks (99.9)
3rd-most FPG to QBs (18.9)
4th-most passing YPG (252.1)
7th-most YPA (7.1)
6th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (16.1%)
History of Scheme Success:
vs. Cover 2 (last 3 years):
The most FP/Db (0.42)
vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):
5th-most FP/Db (0.39)
vs. Cover 6 (last 3 years):
The most FP/Db (0.50)
Game Type: CASH/Single-Entry (SE)
The Bottom Line: A complete smash spot for Stafford with Minnesota prepared to throw everything at the QB that he’s obliterated at league-leading metrics.
Drew Lock, DEN at LV ($5.1K DK | $6.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 2-4%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 15 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances:
6th-most FPG to offenses (93.1)
4th-most FPG to QBs the last 4 weeks (16.8)
6th-highest completion rate (68%)
Scheme History of Success:
vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):
On 22% of dropbacks, generated 31% of passing yardage, and 30% of his total TDs
AY/Att spikes by 20%
Passer rating increases by 16%
7 TDs vs. 3 INTs
Other:
- Taysom Hill (69%) is the only QB with a greater improvement to his FP/Db when facing Cover 3 than Lock (43%)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: In addition to his cannon for a right arm, the reason Lock garnered NFL interest is due to his utter dominance of Cover 3
Favorite Alternatives
Tyler Huntley, BAL at CIN ($6.0K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 8-12% | Game: BOTH)
Russell Wilson, SEA vs. CHI ($6.1K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Joe Burrow, CIN vs. BAL ($5.9K DK | $7.1K FD | ExpOwn: 2-5% | Game: GPP)
Running Backs
Ronald Jones II, TB at CAR ($5.1K DK | $5.4K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 27-30%
- FanDuel: 27-30%
Week 14 Opponent: New Orleans Saints
Results: 8/63/0, 2/8/0 receiving, 9.1 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Allowances:
13th-most rushing YPG (115.6)
15th-most TDs/game (0.86)
10th-most FPG to RBs last 4 weeks (23.8)
5th-most FPG on the ground to RBs last 4 weeks (18.0)
4th-most red zone (RZ) touches/game to RBs last 4 weeks (6.33)
10th-most RZ targets/game to RBs last 4 weeks (1.0)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Jones is just as dangerous as Leonard Fournette as a short-yardage and goal-to-go (GTG) back. And the Panthers’ defense has begun to unravel in recent weeks
James Robinson, JAX at NYJ ($5.9K DK | $8.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 15-18%
- FanDuel: 7-10%
Week 14 Opponent: Houston Texans
Results: 18/75/1 rushing, 3/13/0 receiving, 17.8 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: New York Jets
Allowances:
7.43 RZ touches/game (the most)
3.29 GTG carries/game (the most)
20.7 FPG on the ground (the most)
34.8 overall FPG (the most – 16% more than any other team)
Game Type: CASH/SE (DK), BOTH (FD)
The Bottom Line: If Duke Johnson Jr. can score 28.7 FPs against New York, Robinson could reasonably exceed 30 if Jacksonville can figure out how to stay out in front of the Jets
Favorite Alternatives
Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. LAR ($6.8K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 30-35% | Game: CASH/SE)
Justin Jackson, LAC at HOU ($4.2K DK | $5.4K FD | ExpOwn: 23-27% | Game: CASH/SE)
Darrel Williams, KC vs. PIT ($4.6K DK | $5.7K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp, LAR at MIN ($9.1K DK | $9.8K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 35-38%
- FanDuel: 39-42%
Week 14 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Results: 13/123/1 on 15 targets, 31.3 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Schemes: 6th-highest rate of Cover 2, 11th-highest of Cover 4, 6th-highest of Cover 6
Allowances:
- The most FPG to offenses the last 4 weeks (99.9)
- The most FPG to WRs (41.7)
- The most RZ touches/game (2.29)
Individual Matchup: Mackensie Alexander
Averett’s Coverage Metrics: 1.34 YPCS (5th-most), 0.29 FP/CS (8th-most), 110.1 TPR (4th-highest)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Even with WR1 pricing in each of his last 8 games, Kupp has at least covered 93% of his floor in 71% of his games… none of the other WRs with top-10 pricing have managed to hit at 93% or above value in at least half of their games
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at ATL ($5.6K DK | $6.5K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 6-9%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 14 Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Results: 8/90/1 on 11 targets, 23.5 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Allowances:
9th-most passing YPG (246.6)
4th-highest completion rate (69%)
8th-most YPA (7.02)
4th-highest passing first down rate (37.6%)
4th-most FPG to WRs (38.5)
5th-most red zone touches/game (1.93)
Individual Matchup: Richie Grant
Coverage Metrics: 1.84 YPCS (Unqualified), 0.53 FP/CS (Unqualified), 0.14 AY/CS (Unqualified), 146.2 TPR (Unqualified)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Amon-Ra has simply been one of the hottest WRs in the NFL over the last three weeks and one of my favorite GPP wideouts (all sizes) of Week 16
Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. CHI ($6.7K DK | $7.3K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 2-5%
- FanDuel: 2-5%
Week 15 Opponent: Chicago Bears
Scheme: 7th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 3rd-highest rate of Cover 2
Allowances:
10th-highest completion rate (67%)
11th-most YPA (6.89)
11th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.86%)
9th-highest passing first down rate (36.2%)
4th-most FP/CS when defending play action (0.44)
4th-highest TPR when defending play action (125.4)
The most TDs/game to WRs (1.36)
9th-most FPG to WRs (36.5)
Individual Matchup: Artie Burns
Coverage Metrics: 1.84 YPCS (Unqualified), 0.40 FP/CS (Unqualified), 0.87 AY/CS (Unqualified), and a 117.6 TPR (Unqualified)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Both Lockett and Burns were just activated off the COVID list after missing Week 15 and I love Lockett’s upside this week toward fueling a big outing for Russell Wilson
Favorite Alternatives
Antonio Brown, TB at CAR ($4.9K DK | $7.0K FD | ExpOwn: 19-24% | Game: CASH/SE)
Russell Gage, ATL vs. DET ($5.9K DK | $6.7K FD | ExpOwn: 5-9% | Game: BOTH)
Byron Pringle, KC vs. PIT ($3.3K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Braxton Berrios, NYJ vs. JAX ($3.5K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYG ($5.1K DK | $5.9K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 14-17%
- FanDuel: 14-17%
Week 14 Opponent: New York Jets
Results: 6/105/2 on 6 targets, 28.5 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: New York Giants
Schemes: 4th-highest rate of Cover 3 and 10th-highest of Cover 4
Scheme History:
vs. Cover 3 (last 3 years):
7th-most FP/Rt (0.43)
vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):
8th-most FP/Rt (0.36)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Goedert is the hottest TE in the league, an absolute staple of Cash/SE lineups this week
Noah Fant, DEN at LV ($4.4K DK | $5.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 14 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Results: 5/57/0 on 6 targets, 10.7 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances:
6th-highest completion rate (68%)
6th-most FPG to offenses (93.1)
4th-most FPG to TEs (16.7)
3rd-most TDs/game to TEs (0.71)
Scheme History (last 3 seasons):
vs. Cover 3:
6th-most FP/Rt (0.44)
10th-most YPRR (1.99)
Drawing 25% of the targets (5th-most)
On 26% of his career routes, tracked down 35% of catches, 35% of yardage, and 33% of TDs
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: As with his starting QB this week, Drew Lock, the Week 16 opportunity for Fant could not be more perfectly suited
Favorite Alternatives
Rob Gronkowski, TB at CAR ($6.2K DK | $6.7K FD | ExpOwn: 13-17% | Game: CASH/SE)
Mark Andrews, BAL at CIN ($7.0K DK | $8.0K FD | ExpOwn: 9-12% | Game: CASH/SE)
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN at LV ($3.1K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks, SEA vs. CHI (3.0K DK | $4.5K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 7-10% (CASH/SE)
- FanDuel: 7-10% (CASH/SE)
Buffalo Bills, BUF at NE ($3.2K DK | $4.0K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: Less than 1% (GPP)
- FanDuel: Less than 1% (GPP)
Favorite Alternatives
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC at ($3.4K DK | $4.8K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)
Kansas City Chiefs, KC vs. PIT ($3.5K DK | $4.3K FD | ExpOwn: 2-5% | Game: GPP)
