I’m pumped for another fun, high-scoring Saturday Main slate!
This Saturday slate provides so many solid options at each position. Do we pay up at QB or do we try to save salary to spend on RBs and WRs? Is Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen a lock versus Northwestern? Is SMU RB Ulysses Bentley finally healthy? Is David Bell ready for an encore performance versus Ohio State this week?
Let’s dig in…
Against the Spread Picks
Michigan State (-12.5) vs Maryland
Miami (-2.5) vs Florida State
UCF (+7) vs SMU
Michigan State vs Maryland (Over 60.5)
Miami vs Florida State (Over 61.0)
Georgia vs Tennessee (Under 56.0)
Tyler Van Dyke, Miami vs Florida State (DK: $8.0K | FD: $9.7K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 31.75)
Tyler Van Dyke is one of the hottest QBs in the country over the last three weeks, averaging 380 passing yards and 3.33 TDs per game for 31.13 FPG. He is facing an FSU DEF ranked 116th in QB FPG (27.9), 73rd in PASS YPG (235.1) and 93rd in PASS TDs (18). It seems like a certainty Van Dyke will hit value versus FSU this week.
Jordan Travis, Florida State vs Miami (DK: $6.9K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 29.75)
Jordan Travis is the engine that makes the entire FSU offense run. He is a Konami Code QB that does much of his damage with his legs, rushing for 78-plus yards in at least half of his starts this year. This MIami DEF is not very good versus opposing QBs, ranking 112th in QB FPG (27.0), 112th in PASS YPG (269.8) and 93rd in PASS TDs (18). Facing a similar dual-threat QB in Sam Howell, Miami allowed him to rush for 98 yards and 2 TDs. Travis could have similar success versus this vulnerable Miami defense and he is relatively cheap at $6.9K.
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland vs Michigan State (DK: $5.9K | FD: $7.7K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 24.0)
Taulia Tagovailoa has been sneaky good the last two weeks, including throwing for 371 yards versus a tough Penn State defense. In fact, over the last two games, Tagovailoa is averaging 395 PASS YPG for 23.35 FPG. This week, he faces a horrible Michigan State DEF ranked 94th in QB FPG (24.8) and 130th in PASS YPG (326.7). Tagovailoa is priced at $5.9K, making him one of the best QB values on the slate.
Tyler Van Dimes’ last three games:
vs. GT: 389 Pass Yds, 3 TD
vs. Pitt: 426 Pass Yds, 3 TD
vs. NC St: 325 Pass Yds, 4 TD@CanesFootball
Caleb Williams, Oklahoma vs Baylor (DK: $10.0K | FD: $11.8K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 33.75)
Will Rogers, Mississippi State vs Auburn (DK: $7.4K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 22.25)
Gerry Bohanon, Baylor vs Oklahoma (DK: $7.2K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 28.25)
Kenneth Walker, Michigan State vs Maryland (DK: $8.9K | FD: $10.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 36.5)
Kenneth Walker has been one of the best RBs in the country this year. Walker is getting tremendous volume, averaging 23.1 touches and 154.5 YPG for 29.2 FPG. This Maryland DEF is ranked 121st in RB FPG (31.2), 69th in RUSH YPG (153.44) and 88th in RUSH TDs (16). As a 12-point favorite, Walker should have another big workload as Michigan State looks to bounce back versus Maryland.
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin vs Northwestern (DK: $8.2K | FD: NA | O/U: 41.0 | Implied: 32.75)
With Chez Mellusi out for the season, this is Braelon Allen’s backfield and he might not look back at only 17 years old. Allen has far exceeded expectations anyone had for him as a young, raw RB prospect. Over the last five games, Allen has been the model of consistency rushing for 100-plus yards in each game, averaging 21.22 FPG while splitting carries evenly with Mellusi. This Northwestern DEF is ranked 114th in RB FPG (30.1), 120th in RUSH YPG (224.89) and 121st in RUSH YPC (5.40). They also have allowed 24 rushing TDs on the year. Allen is my RB lock for the week as he is in store for a monster game.
Jaylan Knighton, Miami vs Florida State (DK: $7.9K | FD: $9.2K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 31.75)
Jaylan Knighton has taken off at the same time as Tyler Van Dyke. Over the last four games, Knighton is averaging 25 touches and 146 yards per game for 28.85 FPG. In that time, he has scored 24-plus FPs in each of those games. This FSU DEF is ranked 57th in RB FPG (20.7) and 70th in RUSH YPG (153.67). Knighton is a great play versus FSU despite his rising salary at $7.9K.
Ulysses Bentley, SMU vs UCF (DK: $3.7K | FD: $6.8K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 34.0)
Ulysses Bentley is finally back healthy for an SMU offense that is in desperate need for explosive plays in the running game. When healthy, Bentley is one of the most dynamic RBs in the country. His last healthy game, versus TCU, Bentley rushed for 153 yards for 27.6 FPs. Both Bentley and SMU HC Sonny Dykes communicated that he is healthy and ready to contribute this week. In fact, it was reported that he had a long TD run in practice this week that caused one of his coaches to yell, “Welcome back!” I’m trusting Bentley this week facing an UCF DEF ranked 85th in RB FPG (24.0), 71st in RUSH YPG (155.22) and 77th in RUSH YPC (4.18). At $3.7K, his reduced salary allows us to spend up on other skill position players.
Breece Hall, Iowa State vs Texas Tech (DK: $9.5K | FD: $11.0K | O/U: 58.5 | Implied: 34.5)
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs Purdue (DK: $8.5K | FD: $9.5K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 41.75)
Leddie Brown, West Virginia vs Kansas State (DK: $6.1K | FD: $8.0K | O/U: 47.0 | Implied: 20.25)
Zander Horvath, Purdue vs Ohio State (DK: $3.3K | FD: $5.0K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 20.75)
Julius Davis, WIsconsin vs Northwestern (DK: $3.0K | FD: NA | O/U: 41.0 | Implied: 32.75)
David Bell, Purdue vs Ohio State (DK: $6.7K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 20.75)
David Bell finally came through for us last week in a plus matchup versus Michigan State, scoring 41.7 FPs. Bell has another good matchup versus an Ohio State DEF ranked 83rd in WR FPG (24.7) and 94th in PASS YPG (247.2). Somehow after putting up 41.7 FPs last week, Bell is even cheaper this week at $6.7K. He is a lock in all of my lineups on this slate.
Jayden Reed, Michigan State vs Maryland (DK: $6.1K | FD: $8.3K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 36.5)
Jayden Reed has slumped a bit the last few weeks after starting out averaging 24.82 FPG over his first five games. What’s the difference? Almost all of his stats are identical other than he stopped getting in the end zone. He caught all six of his TDs for the season in the first five weeks. I think this is the week he finds the end zone again versus a weak Maryland DEF ranked 106th in WR FPG (28.4), 102nd in PASS YPG (255.0), and 97th in PASS YPA (7.9). Reed saw double-digit targets for the first time the last two weeks with Jalen Nailor hurt. I love Reed’s value at only $6.1K.
Rakim Jarrett, Maryland vs Michigan State (DK: $4.5K | FD: $6.5K | O/U: 60.5 | Implied: 24.0)
Over the last three games, Rakim Jarrett has seen his production pick back up, averaging 6 targets, 5 receptions and 71.3 yards. He is facing a Michigan State DEF ranked 129th in WR FPG (35.0) and 130th in PASS YPG (326.7). At Jarrett’s price point at $4.5K, he is almost guaranteed to hit value this week.
Charleston Rambo, Miami vs Florida State (DK: $8.0K | FD: $8.7K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 31.75)
Ryan O’Keefe, UCF vs SMU (DK: $7.2K | FD: $8.4K | O/U: 61.0 | Implied: 27.0)
Chris Olave, Ohio State vs Purdue (DK: $6.6K | FD: $9.1K | O/U: 62.5 | Implied: 41.75)
Rara Thomas, Mississippi State vs Auburn (DK: $4.5K | FD: $5.8K | O/U: 50.0 | Implied: 22.25)
Mario Williams, Oklahoma vs Baylor (DK: $4.0K | FD: $5.5K | O/U: 62.0 | Implied: 33.75)