Hello and welcome to the Week 12 Update. What is this article? Mostly it’s a follow-up to yesterday’s big DFS piece – Scott Barrett’s Week 12 DFS Breakdown. But this article should also offer some utility for redraft and dynasty players.
Each week I’ll be breaking down the key injuries, news, and notes from Saturday / Sunday and will be updating this article up until kickoff (1PM EST). And I’ll also be providing a sort of TL;DR to yesterday’s big DFS article. Who are my core cash game plays? You can find that at the end of the article.
Key News, Injury Updates, & Notes
- BREAKING: Chargers RB Kalen Ballage is NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY. This is a big boost to RB Austin Ekeler who has been activated and is EXPECTED TO PLAY. Read yesterday’s article for our full thoughts on him and where he stands.
- BREAKING: Falcons WR Julio Jones is looking like a true GAMETIME DECISION. Per Adam Schefter, “Falcons plan to assess how WR Julio Jones and his hamstring are feeling Sunday morning before deciding whether he can play, per source. Jones is questionable with a hamstring injury.”
- BREAKING: Denver Broncos QBs Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Blake Bortles, and Jeff Driskel are all OUT this week. More on this further down the article.
- BREAKING: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has been downgraded to DOUBTFUL. More on this further down the article.
- BREAKING: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Jeff Wilson Jr., CB Richard Sherman and OL Trent Williams all will play Sunday. Slot CB K’Waun Williams, RB Tevin Coleman, and WR Brandon Aiyuk are OUT. More on this further down the article.
- BREAKING: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is OUT. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are the only other RBs on the active roster. More on this further down the article.
- BREAKING: Dolphins RBs Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are OUT. RB Matt Breida is vaguely in play as a punt-option, but he’s not high on our radar.
- Bills WR John Brown is OUT.
- Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald is OUT.
- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead is OUT.
- Saints LG Andrus Peat and LT Terron Armstead are OUT.
- Jaguars WRs D.J. Chark and Chris Conley are OUT.
- Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey is OUT.
- Falcons RB Todd Gurley is OUT.
- Vikings TE Irv Smith is OUT.
- Vikings WR Adam Thielen is NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Colts QB Philip Rivers is QUESTIONABLE.
- Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is QUESTIONABLE.
- Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant is QUESTIONABLE. Upgrade DeVante Parker if he’s out.
- Colts WR Zach Pascal is QUESTIONABLE. Give Michael Pittman a big upgrade if he’s out.
- Falcons TE Hayden Hurst is QUESTIONABLE. We spent some time on him in yesterday’s article.
- Bengals RB Giovani Bernard is EXPECTED TO PLAY.
- Chargers CB Chris Harris Jr. has been ACTIVATED. He’s not a lock but is likely to play, probably on the outside, replacing CB Casey Hayward who is OUT alongside DE Melvin Ingram and LB Uchenna Nwosu.
Full Update
1) Denver Broncos QBs Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Blake Bortles, and Jeff Driskel are all OUT this week. They’ll be forced to start practice-squad WR Kendall Hinton in his absence (per Ian Rapoport). At Wake Forest, he started 22 games at QB before converting to WR. He averaged 68.3 passing YPG and 24.6 rushing YPG over this span, along with an 8:7 TD:INT ratio. He’s not in play. This is a massive downgrade to all Broncos players. Expect them to lean massively run-heavy but with little success. Saints DEF is now rightfully massive chalk, and borders on a near must-play. Expect New Orleans to have amazing field position on nearly every play, and for this game to look a lot like Week 9 against Tampa Bay (W 38-3), but – somehow – even less competitive with even less urgency to put points on the board. Drew Brees threw 3 touchdowns on his first 4 drives, and then the offense played at a sloth-like pace rushing 21 times to 12 passes. Murray saw 7 carries to Dwayne Washington’s 5 and Alvin Kamara’s 2. Murray is sort of in play in what should be an absolute blowout, but Taysom Hill is still firmly in consideration as a high-upside contrarian option stacked with Saints DEF. Is he not effectively the team’s goal-line back? He’s surely somewhere on the Cam Newton spectrum (9 rushing TDs in 9 starts). And, again, the Saints should have amazing field position on nearly every drive.
2) Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has been downgraded to DOUBTFUL. Oh boy. Ryan Fitzpatrick now probably ahead of Derek Carr as the best QB value of the slate. He averaged 21.3 FPG over his last 13 starts, which would rank 8th-best this year. Miami is now without their 2 starting RBs, and Fitzpatrick is probably well aware that this could be his final NFL start. So, I do fully expect him to come out “slinging it”, and actually, that’s how you should attack this Jets defense. The Jets are far-and-away the league’s top pass funnel defense (see above). Teams are passing on them 58% of the time versus an expected pass% of 53% (based on game script and down-and-distance). The Jets are giving up the 4th-most FPG to opposing QBs (22.9) and rank 3rd-worst in opposing passer rating (105.5). We’ve seen them give up monster games to Patrick Mahomes (36.6), Josh Allen (28.2), Justin Herbert (27.7), Kyler Murray (27.3), and Cam Newton (24.6) earlier this year. And the Jets are now starting backups (practice squad-caliber players) at all 3 CB positions – that’s a big reason why we were so high on Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen last week. This bodes very well for Fitzpatrick, but also DeVante Parker… The Jets rank bottom-7 in FPG and fantasy points per target allowed to opposing WRs. They rank bottom-4 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WR1s over the full season and bottom-3 over their last 5 games. Parker comprised 25% of Fitzpatrick’s total passing yards this year (236.0 passing YPG), but that number dropped to 19% with Tagovailoa under center (120.4 passing YPG). Essentially, we should at least be doubling his yardage expectation based on this news (and ignoring matchup). But he also went nuclear last year with Fitzpatrick once Preston Williams (now on IR) went down, averaging 9.5 targets, 100.3 yards, and 19.3 FPG across 8 games. This is his first game this year with Fitzpatrick and without Williams. He’s a borderline must-play.
3) Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is OUT. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are the only other RBs on the active roster. What happens this week? Could Hines see a near-bell cow workload? He hasn’t reached even 56% of the team’s snaps in any game thus far. Could Wilkins beast as the workhorse in a soft matchup? He totaled 113 yards on 21 touches just a few weeks ago. I have no idea how this plays out, but both scenarios are super-plausible possibilities. Ultimately, I’m projecting a 60%/40% XFP split in Hines’ favor. Somewhere around 10 carries and 6 targets for Hines, with Wilkins seeing about 14 carries and 2 targets. According to the SuperModel, Hines now rivals (but is slightly behind) Brian Hill as the best overall value of the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m less bullish, and though I don’t think he’s a must-play, he is a very good one, and probably ahead of Brian Hill for cash.
4) 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Jeff Wilson Jr., CB Richard Sherman and OL Trent Williams all will play Sunday. Slot CB K’Waun Williams, RB Tevin Coleman, and WR Brandon Aiyuk are OUT. With Aiyuk out, Samuel is vaguely in play as a super-contrarian option, but I’m not really on it. I like Mostert a good deal more in spite of this tough matchup. Mainly because he’ll draw near-zero ownership, but he is popping as a slight value. Adjusted for injury, Mostert is averaging 16.7 carries, 3.7 targets, 150.7 total yards, 0.67 touchdowns, and 22.7 fantasy points per 4 quarters this year. He practiced in full all week and is no longer on the injury report. But he’s really just a contrarian option for large field tournaments… We hyped both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp in yesterday’s article, but the return of Sherman helps make things easy on us. Jason Verrett has been excellent this year, and Sherman led all CBs in yards allowed per snap in coverage last year. They’ll man the outside, so prioritize Kupp against a backup slot CB. San Francisco has historically held him in check, but he has the softer matchup this week. He totals 40 targets and 305 receiving yards over his last 3 games. He’s an exceptional value on FanDuel, but a great play on both sites.
Chalk
- According to our Ownership Projections, powered by FanShare, the highest-owned players are likely to be:
DraftKings
1. Dalvin Cook, RB (36.8%)
2. Darren Waller, TE (22.2%)
3. Justin Jefferson, WR (22.0%)
4. Keenan Allen, WR (21.9%)
5. James Robinson, RB (21.7%)
6. Stefon Diggs, WR (21.1%)
7. Josh Jacobs, RB (21.0%)
8. Travis Kelce, TE (20.6%)
9. Wayne Gallman, RB (18.2%)
10. Tyreek Hill, WR (17.4%)
FanDuel
1. Josh Jacobs, RB (29.0%)
2. James Robinson, RB (28.7%)
3. Darren Waller, TE (26.2%)
4. Stefon Diggs, WR (26.1%)
5. Justin Jefferson, RB (26.0%)
6. Brian Hill, RB (25.5%)
7. Keenan Allen, WR (24.9%)
8. Travis Kelce, TE (24.6%)
9. Dalvin Cook, RB (23.8%)
10. Cole Beasley, WR (19.4%)
Things I Think
I think I’m going to pass out. What a wild and hectic week! Thanksgiving Week is always the roughest for any DFS analyst. And usually Saturdays are an easy day for me, but this might have been the craziest Saturday of all-time.
I think this is going to be a rough week for the Optimizer, but I think this will be a great week for those of you who read this article and who read the DFS Breakdown yesterday. It’s a fairly tough week for cash. But it’s a great week for MME, but also for Single Entry GPPs.
I feel pretty good about this week, but seemingly no one else does. I feel pretty good about where I am on research, but everyone else is going to be pretty far behind. And based on the content I’ve consumed from rival sites, that certainly does appear to be the case.
I wouldn’t worry too much about leverage. There’s plenty of great plays this week that are being neglected and are likely to go lower-owned. Just make sure you sprinkle in a few of those guys into your large-field tournament lineups, and you should be okay.
Cash Core (DK/FD)
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr
RB: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry (FD), Austin Ekeler, Nyheim Hines, Brian Hill, Kareem Hunt (DK), James Robinson
WR: Justin Jefferson, Laviska Shenault (DK), Sterling Shepard (FD), DeVante Parker, Cooper Kupp (FD), Tyreek Hill (DK), Calvin Ridley (DK), Stefon Diggs (FD), Andy Isabella (DK), Gabriel Davis (DK), Cole Beasley (FD)
TE: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Kyle Rudolph, Austin Hooper
DEF: NO, JAX (DK), LVR (DK), NYJ (FD)
