Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: NFL Draft Props Edition. This will be the main hub for my favorite bets for the 2022 NFL Draft being held in Las Vegas. Hopefully, we can keep our good fortune going this year after we cleaned up by winning 11.33 units on last year’s draft. For the second straight year, the Jacksonville Jaguars will get the draft started with the first overall pick on Thursday, April 28 and the San Francisco 49ers will finish the draft with the 263rd overall pick on Saturday, April 30. Be sure to check back often before the start of the draft and during the draft to see what bets I like the most for the seven-round event.
Check out my Draft Prop Previews for comprehensive breakdowns of all my bets and much more.
Day 2
April 29
Arnold Ebiketie under 44.5 draft position (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit.
- Tailing Graham on this one, had an expected draft position of 34.4 on Grinding the Mocks and a number of teams that have EDGE needs before the 45th pick
John Metchie over 56.5 draft position (-115, PointsBet). Risk 1.15 units to win one unit.
- Possession receiver coming off an ACL injury that kept him from testing in the pre-draft process
George Pickens over 43.5 draft position (-114, UniBet). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit.
- Red flags pushing him down draft boards and I like grabbing this draft position at 43.5 before the Browns pick at No. 44 because they like players with red flags (lol)
Green Bay Packers position of second pick: Tight End (+700, UniBet). Risk one unit to win seven units.
- WR is the heavy favorite but they’ve been doing their homework on TEs. WRs could be picked over if they sit back and wait like they did on Day 1.
Chicago Bears position of first pick: Offense (-125, UniBet). Risk 1.49 units to win one unit.
- This should be more juiced toward offense with wide receiver and O-line the heavy favorites for their first selection
April 27
First Tight End Drafted: Jelani Woods (+1200, UniBet). Risk .5 unit to win six units.
- Tre McBride is the heavy favorite to be the first tight end selected at -400 odds and Woods is a longshot for good reasons. McBride led all FBS TEs with 90 receptions and 1121 receiving yards as a senior, which earned him the John Mackey Award, which is awarded to the nation’s best TE. Meanwhile, Woods had fewer caches (75) and yards (959) over the course of 33 career games between Virginia and Oklahoma State. The reason Woods could go before McBride is because of what he could become at the next level. Per Relative Athletic Score, Woods is the most athletic tight end out of 998 players to enter the Draft since 1987. Our Greg Cosell also called him “one of the more intriguing overall prospects” in this year’s Draft. Woods received little hype before Dan Graziano’s report the day before the Draft that the Packers have done a “lot of work” on Woods. Other teams are likely sniffing around Woods as a potential pick in the first two rounds if the Packers are doing their due diligence. McBride’s draft position is set at 51.5 right before the Packers pick at No. 52 so Woods certainly has plenty of time to be selected ahead of McBride if a team is intrigued enough by his incredible athletic profile.
April 26
Sam Howell over 42.5 draft position (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit.
- Howell is the consensus fifth quarterback in this year’s weak quarterback class, and he’s a distant fifth at that with +4000 odds to be the first quarterback selected at Bovada. Matt Corral has the next longest odds at +1800 so there’s quite the gap between Howell and Malik Willis/Kenny Pickett/Desmond Ridder/Corral. At Grinding the Mocks, Howell’s draft stock has been on the rise a bit in the last week but he still owns an expected draft position at 47.4. Quarterbacks aren’t expected to be flying off the board with under 3.5 QBs selected in the first round sitting at -340 odds. The Lions (No. 34), Seahawks (No. 40 and 41), and Colts (No. 42) are the major bullets to avoid for Howell’s landing spot in the early second round before pick No. 43.
Day 1
Small winner on the first day of the Draft thanks to some late hits on the Bills and Vikings picks as well as Pickett being the first QB off the board.
April 28
Jahan Dotson under 30.5 draft position (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit.
Kaiir Elam under 31.5 draft position (-118, FOXBet). Risk 1.18 units to win one unit.
Position of Philadelphia Eagles First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+300, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win three units.
April 27
Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Linebacker (+430, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 4.3 units.
First Tight End Drafted: Jelani Woods (+1200, UniBet). Risk .5 unit to win six units.
Top 3 Overall Picks Exact Order: 1st Travon Walker; 2nd Kayvon Thibodeaux; 3rd Derek Stingley (+3100, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 31 units.
April 26
Total Pac-12 players drafted in the first round: Over 4.5 (+145, Bovada). Risk one unit to win 1.45 units.
April 25
Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player: Defense (+100, FOXBet). Risk one unit to win one unit.
Derek Stingley under 9.5 draft position (-132, FanDuel). Risk 1.32 units to win one unit.
Charles Cross under 7.5 draft position (+105, FOXBet). Risk one unit to win 1.05 units.
First Offensive Lineman selected: Charles Cross (+700, UniBet). Risk one unit to win seven units.
April 22
Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Defensive Back (+115, Caesars). Risk one unit to win 1.15 units.
April 21
Position of Washington Commanders First Drafted Player: Safety (+650, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 6.5 units.
Position of Washington Commanders First Drafted Player: Defense (+132, Unibet). Risk one unit to win 1.32 units.
Position of Pittsburgh Steelers first drafted player: Quarterback (+170, Unibet). Risk one unit to win 1.7 units.
Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player: Cornerback (+250, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 2.5 units.
Position of Tennessee Titans First Drafted Player: Offensive Line (+210, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 2.1 units.
Position of Cincinnati Bengals First Drafted Player: Offensive Line (+170, Unibet). Risk one unit to win 1.7 units.
April 18
Devonte Wyatt under 29.5 draft position (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit.
April 14
Devin Lloyd under 18.5 draft position (+105, Caesars). Risk one unit to win 1.05 units.
Kyle Hamilton over 9.5 draft position (-114, FanDuel). Risk 1.14 units to win one unit.
April 13
First Offensive Lineman selected: Evan Neal (+130, Caesars). Risk one unit to win 1.3 units.
April 12
Jameson Williams under 16.5 draft position (-115, DraftKings). Risk 2.3 units to win two units.
April 6
Kenny Pickett to be the first QB selected (+225, FOXBet). Risk one unit to win 2.25 units.
Kenny Pickett to be selected by the Carolina Panthers (+175, FOXBet). Risk one unit to win 1.75 units
April 5
Jameson Williams to be the first WR selected (+900, Caesars). Risk .5 units to win 4.5 units.
Jameson Williams to be a top-10 pick (+1500, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 15 units.
Ahmad Gardner under 7.5 draft position (-135, BetMGM). Risk 1.35 units to win one unit.
Kayvon Thibodeaux over 5.5 draft position (+103, UniBet). Risk one unit to win 1.03 units.
Jordan Davis over 13.5 draft position (-133, FOXBet). Risk 1.33 units to win one unit.
