If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LV concluded, with the Buccaneers beating the Chiefs more than two months ago. The NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 29 through May 1, which is our one chance to bet an actual NFL event before preseason action gets going in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow you to place wagers NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you have access to an off-shore account or you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re going to see much more volatility between sportsbooks with an event like the draft than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer Greg Cosell’s rookie profiles once again as part of our 2021 NFL Draft Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to subscribe to our guide to get his complete analysis for over 165+ players.
Prop updates since original posting on April 19
- Justin Fields over 4.5 draft position (-110, Bovada) — Added April 26.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): first overall (Jaguars), QB1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): first overall (Jaguars), QB1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): first overall (Jaguars), QB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Lawrence is a high-level prospect with all the traits you look for in an NFL QB: size, athleticism, arm strength, touch and pace, precise ball placement, elimination and isolation ability, pocket movement, and second reaction ability…Lawrence is a strong prospect with all the needed physical and athletic traits and he will be a Day 1 starter in the NFL.
Draft Props to Consider
Trevor Lawrence first overall pick (-10000) — The Jaguars masterfully threw away the 2020 season to land Lawrence, who they think is their franchise quarterback for at least the next decade. The time to bet on Lawrence to be selected as the first overall pick has long since passed since he’s seemingly been locked in as the top overall pick since he made it through his junior season at Clemson without any major injuries. Every sportsbook I looked at had him listed at -10000 at best to be the first overall pick — FanDuel had him at -20000 — which means you’ll have to lay $100 to win $1. Lawrence is a virtual lock to be the first pick but risking so much to win so little won’t be worth it for most, especially since books place limits on the amount that can be wagered.
Zach Wilson, BYU
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): second overall (Jets), QB2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): second overall (Jets), QB2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): second overall (Jets), QB2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Wilson's 2020 college tape showed a QB whose game was built on pocket efficiency and off-schedule movement. He showed a good arm with an understanding of pace and touch when needed, plus the ability to make throws without his feet set and from different arm angles. My sense studying Wilson is that he possesses a desirable combination of structured system efficiency with consistently precise ball location and second reaction improvisation with plus athletic ability and field awareness.
Draft Props to Consider
Zach Wilson second overall pick (-2500, BetMGM/BetOnline) — The Jets have long been rumored to land Wilson with the second overall pick, and that only intensified after New York traded away Sam Darnold, its 2018 third overall pick, to the Panthers on April 5. The Jets made sure to do their due diligence on Wilson and the rest of this year’s top quarterback prospects before feeling comfortable enough to trade Darnold to Carolina. Wilson isn’t the virtual lock to be drafted No. 2 that Trevor Lawrence is to be the top overall pick, but you can also find much better odds for Wilson and the second overall pick. Wilson is as high as -5000 at DraftKings and as low as -2500 at BetMGM and BetOnline, which means you’ll have to lay $100 to win $4. The return is a little better wagering on Wilson to go second overall compared to Lawrence’s -10000 odds to be the top overall pick, but risking so much to win so little won’t be worth it for most.
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): seventh overall (Lions), QB5
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): ninth overall (Broncos), QB5
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 11th overall (Patriots), QB5
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Fields at this point is a higher-level traits prospect with a plus arm and strong movement traits, but there is much work to be done when it comes to throwing with needed timing and recognizing early in the down (or pre-snap) where the ball needs to go based on the coverage. He can drive the ball with velocity and he showed the pace needed to make touch throws, but based on his OSU tape he needed throws to be clean and defined to be consistently successful. His tape showed a "see-it, throw-it" passer much more than a timing/anticipation passer.
Draft Props to Consider
POSTED APRIL 26 — Justin Fields over 4.5 draft position (-110, Bovada) — I’ve been skeptical that Mac Jones is locked in as the No. 3 pick, but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on April 25 that the 49ers are down to Jones and Trey Lance with the third overall pick. It appears that Fields could be the quarterback in this year’s class who falls more than expected after going through the pre-draft process. It’s possible that some team could trade up to No. 4 to select Fields, but it’s much more likely the Falcons stay put and select Pitts or they could draft Lance if Jones goes third overall. The 49ers also made it difficult for any team to make a dramatic move up in the draft order because of the package (2022-23 firsts, 2022 third) they gave to the Dolphins to move up nine spots from No. 12 to No. 3. Either way, I no longer see Fields as a top-five pick in this year’s draft and there’s a chance he could slide a bit Thursday night.
POSTED APRIL 19 — Justin Fields third overall pick (+100, DraftKings) — The first two picks in this year’s draft have been locked in since the Jets traded away Sam Darnold, and the 2021 draft starts with the third overall pick. San Francisco made the selection even more interesting after they traded their 2021-23 first-round picks and a 2022 third-round pick to the Dolphins to move up to the third spot. Mac Jones quickly became a sizable favorite to be the third overall pick (-205 as of April 8) after both Daniel Jeremiah and Adam Schefter shared opinions that Jones would be the third overall pick. The odds started to swing back in Fields’ favor on April 15 after he held a second Pro Day, which was attended by 49ers GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan. Fields is now back to being the odds-on favorite to be selected No. 3.
Personally, it never passed the smell test that the 49ers would give up such a massive haul for Jones, who has a solid floor but a limited ceiling at the next level. It made much more sense that they would target Fields or Trey Lance with the third overall pick since they have much higher ceilings and some untapped potential — they also have much better chances of flaming out at the next level. I’m leaning toward the 49ers selecting Fields or Lance despite early April media reports indicating the 49ers will be selecting Jones, but there’s just too much uncertainty with what the 49ers are going to do for me to make a wager on it. My tune could change as we get closer to the draft but I’m passing on this wager for now.
Mac Jones, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): third overall (49ers), QB3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): third overall (49ers), QB3
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): third overall (49ers), QB3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Jones showed good field vision and was decisive and aggressive turning it loose and showed a refined feel for throwing with timing and anticipation into zone windows. He was a strong deep passer with trajectory and accuracy. Precise ball location was a strength of Jones' game, and that is always a good starting point. Jones will need a running game, quality pass protection, and playmakers on the perimeter to play at any kind of consistent level as a starter in the NFL. You need to understand what Jones is and what he isn't when you draft him.
Draft Props to Consider
There are no notable prop bets I’m looking at for Jones as of this writing since I’m currently fading him as the third overall pick. Jones could have some additional markets open up before the draft. I’d look at taking over 3.5 for his draft position if those markets would open up before the draft since I believe Fields will be drafted ahead of him.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): fourth overall (Falcons), QB4
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): fourth overall (Falcons), QB4
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): ninth overall (Broncos), QB4
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Lance is the most intriguing QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft given that he did not play college football in 2020 and comes from a smaller-school program. What cannot be denied based on his 2019 tape is that he's a high-level traits QB prospect with a strong, live arm and excellent athleticism with a twitch and explosiveness to the way he played, both throwing and moving. Lance fits the evolving profile of NFL quarterbacking, giving an offense a multiple designed QB run game in addition to second-reaction improvisational plays both throwing and running.
Draft Props to Consider
Trey Lance Top 10 (-500, DraftKings) and Denver Broncos to select a quarterback with their first pick (+115, DraftKings/Bovada) — I see all five of the top quarterback prospects going inside the top-10 picks in this year’s draft, including Lance who comes into the league with just a 17-game sample at FCS North Dakota State. Quarterbacks should fly off the board with the first three picks in the draft, and I see three trade-up spots for teams at No. 4 (Atlanta), No. 7 (Detroit), and No. 8 (Carolina) before we get to the next QB-needy team in Denver at No. 9. New England, Washington, and Chicago are prime candidates to move up inside the top-10 ahead of Denver to get one of Lance, Justin Fields, and/or Mac Jones. Lance going inside the top-10 picks is as high as -750 at Bovada so we’re getting a little bit of value with Lance at -500 at DraftKings.
The Broncos aren’t necessarily locked into taking Lance, but they could feel the pressure to move up to get one of the top-five quarterbacks since there are more QB-needy teams than quarterbacks available at the top of the draft. New GM George Paton could make a splash by trading up to get his guy at quarterback in his first off-season and the Broncos have been noticeably quiet on the quarterback front since the end of last season. The Broncos could also have one of the top quarterbacks fall to them if New England, Washington, and Chicago decide the price is too steep to trade up. Either way, I don’t see the Broncos squandering their current roster on another season with Drew Lock at quarterback. The Broncos are as high as -130 to select a quarterback at BetMGM so there’s a big difference with the plus price being offered at DraftKings.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Denver Broncos to select a quarterback with their first pick (+115, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 1.15 units.
Justin Fields over 4.5 draft position (-110, Bovada). Risk two units to win 1.82 units.
