If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LV concluded with the Buccaneers beating the Chiefs more than two months ago. The NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 29 through May 1, which is our one chance to bet an actual NFL event before preseason action gets going in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow you to place wagers NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you have access to an off-shore account or you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re going to see much more volatility between sportsbooks with an event like the draft than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer Greg Cosell’s rookie profiles once again as part of our 2021 NFL Draft Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to subscribe to our guide to get his complete analysis for over 165+ players.
Prop updates since original posting on April 22
- Greg Newsome to be drafted before Caleb Farley (+120, DraftKings) — Added April 27
Defense
Patrick Surtain, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 12th overall (Eagles), CB1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 10th overall (Cowboys), CB1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): eighth overall (Panthers), CB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Surtain is an outstanding prospect as an outside corner with prototypical size and length and elite press man-to-man coverage traits, and there is always a place for that in the NFL. Surtain has high-level athleticism with a desirable combination of length and short-area quickness, and he has shown throughout his Alabama career the ability to play both physical press man and mirror-match press man at a consistently high level.
Draft Props to Consider
Patrick Surtain under 10.5 draft position (-120, BetMGM) and Dallas Cowboys to select a cornerback with their first pick (+100, BetMGM) — Offensive players are expected to fly off the board in the top 10, but the Cowboys are the one team that’s fully expected to address their weak defense. VP Stephen Jones acknowledged what everybody who follows the league could see last year when he said on April 19, “Defensively, we have to get better. That’s certainly one of our goals in this draft.” The Cowboys have easily been the team most linked to Surtain in mock drafts as he’s landed in Dallas in 39% of expert mock drafts in March and April, per Grinding the Mocks. They also selected Surtain’s college teammate, Trevon Diggs, in the second round last season so they’re certainly not afraid to pick from Nick Saban’s defensive backs. The Cowboys are +100 to draft a cornerback with their first selection, and their odds to pick a CB first is as high as -167 at DraftKings. I’m going to go a little safer route and take Surtain to be drafted in the top 10 just in case the Lions at No. 7 or Panthers at No. 8 take him before the Cowboys are on the clock. I still think the Cowboys would draft Jaycee Horn if Surtain was off the board, but I think players like Micah Parson or Rashawn Slater could be more in play at that spot.
Micah Parsons, Penn State
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 15th overall (Patriots), LB1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 18th overall (Dolphins), LB2
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 12th overall (Eagles), LB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
When I watched Parsons and thought of his transition to the NFL, Rashaan Evans coming out of Alabama a few years back jumped into mind. Both Parsons and Evans were used as pass rushers in sub defenses in college, and Evans is now deployed as a movable chess piece in the Titans' sub nickel and dime. Parsons has all the needed traits to be a multiple role defender in sub, and he is a much bigger more explosive athlete than Evans and a better man coverage defender, especially on TEs.
Draft Props to Consider
Micah Parsons over 13.5 draft position (+101, DraftKings) — Parsons is one of the more physically gifted and versatile athletes in this year’s draft class, but his stock continues to slip since the start of 2021. He’s now routinely being mocked outside of the top-10 picks in April after being a mainstay inside the top 10 in 2020, per Grinding the Mocks. Parsons does have some off-the-field question marks but the biggest strike against him has been his position. Unfortunately, his off-ball linebacker spot isn’t as coveted as some of the players who are expected to be drafted around him like cornerbacks, wide receivers, and offensive tackles. I’m leaning toward Parsons slipping past the 13th pick and into the mid-to-late teens on April 29. In a bit of a correlated bet, I could see a team like the Eagles opting to draft South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn over Parsons at No. 12 so I’d consider Horn under 13.5 for his draft position, which is being offered at -110 at PointsBet.
Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 14th overall (Vikings), DE2
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 21st overall (Colts), DE2
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 30th overall (Bills), DE3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Phillips checks all the athletic and physical boxes to play on the edge in the NFL and be a strong, and potentially elite, edge pass rusher with Joker attributes. What consistently stood out watching Phillips' 2020 tape was his suddenness and his balance. He was twitchy with elite movement/change of direction traits, and he was rarely on the ground. Those two attributes resulted in Phillips being an impact player versus both the run and pass…Phillips transitions to the NFL as a 4-3 DE with prototypical size and length who will also play in the 4-2 nickel/dime front. He is the most explosive edge player in the 2021 NFL Draft class. I could see a coach like Mike Zimmer really liking Phillips in his scheme.
Draft Props to Consider
Jaelan Phillips under 25.5 draft position (-135, PointsBet), Phillips first defensive lineman drafted (+225, BetMGM), and Minnesota to select a defensive lineman (+240, BetMGM) — Phillips is a former five-star recruit who flamed out in two seasons at UCLA because of three concussion between 2017-18 before he transferred to Miami and dominated last season. He’s been gaining steam in recent weeks after an impressive Pro Day which saw him run a 4.56 40-time at 6’5”, 260 pounds. He also registered a 36-inch vertical and a 125-inch broad jump so it’s no wonder he’s surged inside the top 20 in most mock drafts (per Grinding the Mocks) since Miami’s Pro Day on March 29.
Our Greg Cosell dubbed Phillips the “most explosive edge player” in this year’s class, and he went out of his way to write that Mike Zimmer could like Phillips in his scheme — Daniel Jeremiah and Peter Schrager have also mocked Phillips to Minnesota. The Vikings’ young secondary took most of the blame for Minnesota’s defensive struggles last season, but their defensive line played a huge role in their pass defense decline, generating the fifth-fewest sacks (23) and the fourth-worst pressure rate (19.6%). The Vikings just spent two top-90 picks on cornerbacks Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler last year, and they signed veteran Patrick Peterson this off-season so I doubt they go back to the well in this year’s draft. Minnesota could also go for offensive line help in the first round, but I think Zimmer is pissed about how poorly his defense played last season and he’ll want to address the unit early in this year’s draft.
Greg Newsome, Northwestern (Added April 27)
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): 20th overall (Bears), CB3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): 26th overall (Browns), CB3
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): 22nd overall (Titans), CB4
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis
Newsome is a long, thin-framed, sleek corner with extensive experience playing both man and zone coverage. He is high-cut and long-legged, but has the smooth athleticism and natural quickness that will project him well as an outside corner in the NFL. There were times he looked sudden and twitchy in his movement, but my sense after extensive tape study was that Newsome was more of a smooth and fluid mover than an explosive mover.
Draft Props to Consider
Greg Newsome to be drafted before Caleb Farley (+120, DraftKings) — This is more of a bet against Farley than it is a bet on Newsome as Farley has been one of the biggest pre-draft fallers. He’s tumbled outside the top 10 after opting out of the 2020 season and after he needed back surgery — a microdiscectomy — this winter. The injury is by far the more concerning issue for Farley since back problems have the potential to linger into the future, but there’s also been recent chatter that some teams will prefer to draft players who played in 2020.
Newsome and Farley are in a near dead-heat to be drafted first in mock drafts in April (per Grinding the Mocks) while the betting markets are giving Farley a slight advantage to be drafted first — BetOnline has Farley at -150 and Newsome at -130 to be drafted under 23.5. The plugged-in Peter Schrager also had Newsome going No. 17 to Las Vegas and Farley No. 27 to Baltimore, noting that he thinks teams are higher on Newsome than draft media. Newsome’s +120 odds to be drafted before Farley implies a 45% chance that it happens, but I believe these odds should be closer to pick-em or Newsome should be the slight favorite. Give me the plus price with Newsome.
Team Selections
Baltimore Ravens
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): Jayson Oweh, DE (27th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Rashod Bateman, WR (27th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Terrace Marshall, WR (27th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Baltimore Ravens to select an offensive player with their first pick (+110, BetOnline) — The Ravens struggled to find a free agent WR to play with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore’s run-heavy offense before settling for Sammy Watkins on a one-year deal. I could see Baltimore’s front office drafting a receiver with their first pick in the first round for the third time in four years after taking Marquise Brown in 2019 and Hayden Hurst in 2018. I could also see Baltimore potentially drafting an offensive line with Ronnie Stanley up in the air for the start of next season because of his broken leg. Orlando Brown Jr. has also requested to be traded this off-season because of his desire to play left tackle so I see some value taking the plus price on Baltimore selecting an offensive player.
Denver Broncos
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): Penei Sewell, OT (ninth overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Justin Fields, QB (ninth overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Trey Lance, QB (ninth overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Denver Broncos to select a quarterback with their first pick (+115, DraftKings) — I see all five of the top quarterback prospects going inside the top-10 picks in this year’s draft. Quarterbacks should fly off the board with the first three picks in the draft, and I see three trade-up spots for teams at No. 4 (Atlanta), No. 7 (Detroit), and No. 8 (Carolina) before we get to the next QB-needy team in Denver at No. 9. New England, Washington, and Chicago are prime candidates to move up inside the top-10 ahead of Denver to get one of Trey, Justin Fields, and/or Mac Jones. The Broncos could feel the pressure to move up to get one of the top-five quarterbacks since there are more QB-needy teams than quarterbacks available at the top of the draft.
New GM George Paton could make a splash by trading up to get his guy at quarterback in his first off-season and the Broncos have been noticeably quiet on the quarterback front since the end of last season. The Broncos could also have one of the top quarterbacks fall to them if New England, Washington, and Chicago decide the price is too steep to trade up. Either way, I don’t see the Broncos squandering their current roster on another season with Drew Lock at quarterback. The Broncos are as high as -130 to select a quarterback at BetMGM so there’s a big difference with the plus price being offered at DraftKings.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): Jaycee Horn, CB (13th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Jaylen Waddle, WR (13th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Penei Sewell, OT (13th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Los Angeles Chargers to select an offensive lineman with their first pick (+110, BetMGM) — It feels like it’s been the same story for the Chargers for the last decade, but Los Angeles desperately needs to upgrade their offensive line, especially now that it has one of the league’s most promising young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert. The Chargers had one of the worst O-lines once again last season, and it should be a priority to keep Herbert healthy and protected going forward. Los Angeles signed both Corey Linsley and Matt Feiler this off-season to do just that, and the next step is to fix a weak left side of the offensive line in the draft.
Over at Grinding the Mocks, the Chargers have selected an offensive tackle in 66.7% of the expert mock drafts in March and April. Christian Darrisaw has been mocked to the Chargers the second-most at 20%, with only Rashawn Slater in front of him at 42%. Alijah Vera-Tucker is also very much in play for the Chargers at No. 13 overall, and he’s been mocked to the Chargers the third-most in that timeframe. The Chargers are -110 to draft an offensive lineman at DraftKings so we’re getting some additional value with the plus price at BetMGM.
Minnesota Vikings
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): Jaelan Phillips, DE (14th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Kwity Paye, DE (14th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Rashawn Slater, OT (14th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Minnesota to select a defensive lineman (+240, BetMGM) — The Vikings’ young secondary took most of the blame for Minnesota’s defensive struggles last season, but their defensive line played a huge role in their pass defense decline, generating the fifth-fewest sacks (23) and the fourth-worst pressure rate (19.6%). The Vikings just spent two top-90 picks on cornerbacks Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler last year, and they signed veteran Patrick Peterson this off-season so I doubt they go back to the well in this year’s draft. Minnesota could also go for offensive line help in the first round, but I think Zimmer is pissed about how poorly his defense played last season and he’ll want to address the unit early in this year’s draft.
New York Giants
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): DeVonta Smith, WR (11th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (11th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (15th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
New York Giants to select a wide receiver with their first pick (+240, BetMGM) — I believe the Giants are hell-bent on making 2019 first-round pick Daniel Jones a success after a bumpy first two seasons in the league. They signed the top WR to hit the open market this off-season in X receiver Kenny Golladay, and I think the Giants will look to round out their new-look receiving corps by landing either Smith or Jaylen Waddle to split the Z and slot WR roles with Sterling Shepard this season. The Giants could also be in the mix to draft an offensive lineman in the first round for the second straight year, but New York could hold off on the line until later in the draft since they have Nate Solder returning to the team after opting out last season. The Giants are also extremely optimistic about last year’s third-round pick Matt Peart, whom New York essentially redshirted last season as a rookie.
The Giants could also throw a wrench in their WR plans if they decide to trade down in the first round. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on April 20 that GM Dave Gettleman is open to trading down from No. 11, which could take these Alabama WRs out of the picture. Still, Gettleman has never traded down in the first round in eight drafts as a GM between the Giants and Panthers. The Giants also haven’t traded down in 15 years, per Bill Barnwell, so I’m skeptical they’ll actually trade back in the first round. I’m expecting the Giants to stay where they are at No. 11 overall to select either Smith or Waddle.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): Teven Jenkins, OT (24th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Najee Harris, RB (24th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Najee Harris, RB (24th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Pittsburgh Steelers to select an offensive lineman with their first pick (+200, DraftKings) — As a Steelers fan, I’m hoping Najee Harris doesn’t go to Pittsburgh at No. 24 and it has nothing to do with Harris’ ability to be a bell-cow back at the next level. The Steelers have much more pressing needs along their offensive line at tackle and center, and they also need to rebuild their cornerback depth chart after they lost Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson this off-season. Longtime Steelers beat reporter Gerry Dulac reported on April 16 that Pittsburgh expects to add a feature back in the first round and no later than the second round to improve its dismal rushing attack from last season. I believe the best way to improve their rushing attack is by dipping into this year’s talented offensive line class in the first round before addressing the running back position on Day Two. Harris would be a great fit for the Steelers both on and off the field and there’s enough smoke that they’re interested in Harris to keep me off this wager.
Tennessee Titans
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 6): Caleb Farley, CB (22nd overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 16): Christian Barmore, DT (22nd overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 1): Greg Newsome, CB (22nd overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Tennessee Titans to select a defensive lineman (+800, BetMGM) — The Titans had a Super Bowl-caliber offense last season but their defense was a complete mess, which started up front with their abysmal pass rush. They finished 2020 with the third-fewest sacks (19) and the second-worst pressure rate (17.6), just ahead of the pathetic Lions at 17.5%. The Titans signed Bud Dupree to help their pass rush, but he’ll be coming off a torn ACL he suffered in December so he may not be ready for the start of the season. They also signed DT Denico Autry to help their defensive line, but they’re likely to address their front seven again early in the draft. Per Grinding the Mocks, expert mock drafts in March through April have the Titans drafting defensive ends like Jaelan Phillips, Kwity Paye, and Gregory Rousseau 25% of the time. They also have the TItans taking defensive tackle Christian Barmore 7% of the time. Tennessee’s +800 odds to take a defensive lineman implies the Titans will do it just 11% of the time so we’re getting some clear value. This line is also way out of whack from what other sportsbooks are offering with both DraftKings and Bovada offering +550 for the Titans to draft a defensive lineman first.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Patrick Surtain under 10.5 draft position (-120, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win .83 units.
Jaelan Phillips under 25.5 draft position (-135, PointsBet). Risk three units to win 2.22 units.
Jaelan Phillips first defensive lineman drafted (+2.25, Bovada). Risk one unit to win 2.25 units
Minnesota Vikings to select a defensive lineman (+240, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 2.4 units.
Denver Broncos to select a quarterback with their first pick (+115, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 1.15 units.
Baltimore Ravens to select an offensive player with their first pick (+110, BetOnline). Risk one unit to win 1.1 units.
Los Angeles Chargers to select an offensive lineman with their first pick (+110, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 1.1 units.
Tennessee Titans to select a defensive lineman (+800, BetMGM). Risk half a unit to win four units.
Greg Newsome to be drafted before Caleb Farley (+120, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 1.2 units.
