GAME PICKS
Rams at Seahawks
Bet – Under 54 total points (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – While this game has the second-largest total of the week (54.5), I’m skeptical we see a shootout for a few reasons. First and foremost, the Seahawks are back to their old ways and playing insanely slow despite new OC Shane Waldron wanting to play faster. Just for some perspective, the Seahawks are dead last in offensive plays per game at 55.8 and that is over 10 plays below the NFL average of 66.9. Because Seattle is draining the clock and not sustaining offense, it’s zapped their games of scoring upside as they’ve played towards the under in 3-of-4 games with combined point totals of 44, 63, 47, and 49 in Weeks 1-4. Adding more fuel to the under fire is that these Rams-Seahawks meetings last year played way under the total, combining for 39 and 29 points. The only way this game goes off is if the Rams really push on the scoreboard and flame the Seahawks defense for 28-31 points, forcing Seattle’s offense to abandon the run and let Russell Wilson throw at will.
Browns at Chargers
Bet – Over 46.5 total points (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – If this game stays as tight as the spread suggests, the Browns are going to come out and run the hell out of the ball against this Chargers defense. L.A. sits back in a lot of zone, two-deep safety looks and dare their opponents to run on them against light boxes. As a result, the Chargers are giving up 5.14 YPC (second-most) and 122 YPG (fifth-most) to opposing RBs. Through the opening month, the Browns are running the ball 6.5% above expectation in neutral situations (game within a score in 1st-3rd quarter) – that is the fifth-highest rate in the league – so this matchup plays right into their strengths. This is a monster ceiling spot for Nick Chubb. Meanwhile, the Chargers are passing the ball 7.3% above expectation (fourth-highest) as Justin Herbert continues to play like a future MVP. With the Browns advantage on the ground and the Chargers offense running white-hot and throwing a ton, there is a ton of scoring upside here. This is the No. 1 game in my pace/play model for the week, just edging out Chiefs-Bills.
PLAYER PROPS
Robert Woods
Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (+120, FOXBet)
Why? – Might be a donkey bet but I couldn’t resist the juice. Woods has been on the field for 92% of Stafford’s dropbacks over the last three weeks, but hasn’t seen the targets. Playing the squeaky wheel narrative.
Kyle Pitts
Bet – Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – Got lucky and booked this right after Calvin Ridley was ruled out. Look for this to move to the 55-56 range.
Cordarrelle Patterson
Bet – Over 41.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Got lucky and booked this right after Calvin Ridley was ruled out. Bet this moves to the 46-48 range.
Hayden Hurst
Bet – Over 2.5 receptions (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – No Ridley or Gage and the Falcons are already running 12-personnel (2 tight ends on the field) on a league-high 39% of passing plays.
Zach Ertz
Bet – Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Has turned his 7 and 8 targets into 53 and 60 yards over his last two games even though he’s split routes 69 to 61 in Dallas Goedert’s favor. The Panthers just got ripped for 76 yards by the Cowboys TEs last week.
Joe Burrow
Bet – Over 266.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Was very efficient with 9.7, 9.6, and 10.8 YPA vs. the Vikings / Steelers / Jaguars and now will likely have to throw more because Joe Mixon will be limited or out and the Packers should force the scoring pace. Plus, stud CB Jaire Alexander might miss this game. We have Burrow projected for 275 yards.
Davis Mills
Bet – Under 196.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – The last five rookie quarterbacks to face the Patriots have averaged 164.6 yards per game, have a 1-to-11 TD-to-INT ratio, and have taken 15 sacks. Mills put up 168 yards vs. the Panthers and just 87 last week against the Bills. We have Mills projected for 160 yards.
Damien Harris
Bet – Over 14.5 rushing attempts (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Patriots are 9-point favorites, Harris only got 6 carries in Week 3 vs. New Orleans because they got stomped and only got 4 last week because you don’t run on Tampa. He got 23 and 16 carries in Week 1 and 2. Texans are giving up 24.3 RB carries per game (eighth-most). We have Harris projected for 17 carries.
Mike Gesicki
Bet – Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) + Over 3.5 receptions (-135, BetMGM) two separate bets
Why? – Opponents are throwing on Tampa Bay 78.6% (!!) of the time in neutral situations, which, for perspective, is 18.9% higher than expectation. In three games with Jacoby Brissett, Gesicki has seen 24 targets for a 20.1% share. There should be plenty of volume going Gesicki’s way here with Will Fuller (IR) out and DeVante Parker (hamstring) questionable and this spot is awesome. The Bucs are allowing 6.8 receptions (second-most) and a league-high 84% catch rate to tight ends. We have Gesicki projected for 4.5 receptions and 46 yards.
Juwan Johnson
Bet – Anytime TD (+440, FOXBet)
Why? – Way too much juice, so I put a small piece on this. This is in the +250 / +280 range on other books. Johnson leads the Saints in end-zone targets (3) and no one else has more than 1.
Brandon Aiyuk
Bet – Under 40.5 receiving yards (-125, FOXBet)
Why? – Snaps were cut last week, new QB, and has 6 receptions total over his last three games.
James Conner
Bet – Over 9.5 carries (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Chase Edmonds is banged up, Cardinals are home-favorites, and Conner is averaging 13.3 carries per game. We have Conners projected for 12.5 carries.
Trey Sermon
Bet – Over 25.5 rush yards (-105, FOXBet)
Why? – Cardinals are the worst run defense in the league, and even though Eli Mitchell is back, Sermon is still going to be involved. We have Sermon projected for 46 yards.
Zack Moss
Bet – Over 9.5 carries (+105, BetMGM)
Why? – Surprised this is plus money. Has 13 and 14 carries over his last two games, Devin Singletary just played a season-low in snaps, and the Chiefs run defense is terrible. We have Moss projected for 12 carries.
ROI THIS SEASON
Game Bets: ML / Spreads / Totals -23%
Player Props +10%
