Last week was close to being a solid 2-3 picks over .500, but I’ll have to settle for being over .500 at all. I’m still sitting over .500 on the season in dire need of a 2-3 week run where the picks kick ass. I’ll get there.
Last week’s record: 8-7 Season record: 58-55 Tua Tagovailoa (iIa at Ari) UNDER 232.5 passing yards on DK – Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson shut down DK Metcalf back in Week 7, limiting Metcalf to just 2/23 on five targets. So I’d have to think he can limit DeVante Parker. Last week, Parker was limited by Tua and their conservative approach. Tua will have to throw it more than 22 times, but I would be stunned if he eclipsed this number, even knowing he’ll likely have to throw it a lot more than last week.
Christian McCaffrey (Car at KC) OVER 50.5 rushing yards on DK – Really? If McCaffrey is back, which he is, that means he’s ready to go. And if he’s ready to go he’s going to get the ball. And if he’s going to get the ball, he’s going to beat this prop against a Chiefs defense that is easier to run on than to throw. They’re giving up 24/105 rushing to RBs the last four weeks and the Panthers will likely run for more than that this week.
James Conner (Pit at Dal) OVER 78.5 rushing yards on BETMGM – Ben Roethlisberger has not looked great lately, so the Steelers should not mess around this week with Conner, who should get 15-20 carries easily. The Cowboys are giving up 25 RB carries per game for 141 rushing yards the last four weeks, good for 5.5 YPC, so Conner should hit this by the third quarter against the hapless Cowboys, who no longer have an offense.
Diontae Johnson (Pit at Dal) OVER 39.5 receiving yards on DK – He’s been here several times, with mixed results, and he’s officially a pain in the ass. But he’s not even on the injury report, so it’s hard for me to pass on what should be an easy prop for him to hit with only 4-5 targets.
Melvin Gordon (Den at Atl) OVER 2.5 receptions on DK – There are serious concerns about Gordon the runner right now because he doesn’t look good running it. But last week he still played more snaps (36 to 29) and he ran more routes (24 to 17) than Phillip Lindsay, and he had 6/21 receiving. It’s a good matchup for him because the Falcons give up just 18.1/66.5 rushing per game compared to 6.5/45.1 receiving per game, and Gordon is the main pass-catcher, so another 4-5 catches are very likely.
Stefon Diggs (Buf vs. Sea) OVER 5.5 receptions on DK – Diiggs has 6+ catches in each of his last five games, and the Seahawks are still also giving up by far the most FPG to WRs (47.0) and the most receiving yards per game (269.3), and they are down top corner in Shaquill Griffin. I do like Cole Beasley a lot in this game and John Brown could burn the Seahawks with a big play or two, so this could be close. But I gotta go over 5.5 grabs here.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit at Dal) UNDER 24.5 completions on DK – Here’s another scary one, and it’s scary because it seems so obvious that Big Ben won’t have to throw more than 30 times in this one. Hell, he might not get to 25 attempts the way he’s been playing. There’s going to be little reason for him to drop back much here.
Gus Edwards (Bal at Ind) OVER 42.5 rushing yards on BETMGM – He had a decent 32% snap share last week with a strong 16/87/1 rushing, and since he’s so entrenched now as a runner and the game should be close, this one looks easy, even against a good run defense.
Tyler Lockett (Sea at Buf) OVER 75.5 receiving yards on DK – I admittedly don’t have him with much more yards than this, but I love the matchup and firmly believe this week is a Lockett game.
Jerry Jeudy (Den at Atl) OVER 47.5 receiving yards on DK – Drew Lock is a good bet to throw it 40+ times for the third game in a row today, and Jeudy is always open. He will get some pressure off him with Tim Patrick back, and he can easily hit this whether he’s in the slot or out wide.