Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Thursday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-4, 4-3), 1 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Falcons 24.50, Panthers 27
Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2.5, 49 to 51.5
Weather: 70 degrees, 30% of rain, 10 mph
Falcons Injuries to Watch: DE Takk McKinley (groin, out), WR Russell Gage (knee), C Alex Mack (knee), OT Kaleb McGary (elbow)
Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle), LT Russell Okung (calf), DT Zach Kerr (toe)
Falcons Trends
The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games but they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Atlanta is 4-1 toward overs in its last five road games.
Matt Ryan is averaging 343.3 passing yards per game with a healthy Julio Jones in the lineup, and Ryan has 709/5 passing over the last two weeks. He threw for just 226 yards without a touchdown and with an INT when these teams met in Week 5.
Calvin Ridley has slightly out-targeted Julio Jones, 36 to 35, in games when Julio has been healthy. Jones has hung 16/234/2 receiving in his last two games on 19 targets after missing Atlanta’s Week 5 showdown against the Panthers. The Panthers are giving up the sixth-fewest FPG to WRs (31.0 FPG), but they allowed Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith to combine for 12/129 receiving last week.
Ridley has posted 16+ FP with 5+ catches and 60+ yards in six of his seven games this season. He recorded 8/136 receiving on 10 targets against the Panthers in Week 5 when Julio sat out with his hamstring injury.
Russell Gage has bounced back with the rest of the offense with Julio in the lineup the last two weeks, securing 10 passes for 119 yards on 11 targets in Week 6-7. With Jones out of the lineup in Week 5, Gage managed just 2/16 receiving on five targets.
Hayden Hurst has posted 12+ FP in consecutive games with 10/125/1 receiving on 11 targets with Julio back in the lineup. He’s seen 6+ targets in three of his last four games, but his six targets didn’t help him against the Panthers in Week 5 when he posted just 2/8 receiving.
Todd Gurley has finished as a top-24 RB in 6-of-7 games thanks in large part to his seven touchdowns so far this season, including the one he didn’t want to score last week. He rolled the Panthers back in Week 5 with 14/121/1 rushing and 4/29 receiving on five targets to finish as the RB2. Carolina is giving up 164.6 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, and it is allowing the most receptions to RBs (8.0).
Panthers Trends
The Panthers beat the Falcons 23-16 as 2.5-point road underdogs in Week 5.
The Panthers are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
We’ll see if Mike Davis will have one last chance to post RB1 production this week or if Christian McCaffrey will return to split the work with Davis (at least in his first game back). Davis has come back to earth the last two weeks after reeling off three straight games with 22+ FP as the starter in Weeks 3-5. Davis has just 91 scrimmage yards and one touchdown with a fumble lost on 32 touches in tough matchups against the Bears and the Saints in Weeks 6-7. Davis torched the Falcons for 149/1 scrimmage back in Week 5 to finish as the RB1 for the week.
Teddy Bridgewater has thrown for multiple TD passes in three of his last four games. The Falcons are allowing the most FPG to QBs this season (28.4) as they’ve allowed 300+ passing yards in every game and 19 TD passes overall in seven games. Bridgewater is one of those QBs who’s already had success against the Falcons. He completed 27/37 passes for 313 yards and two TDs in Carolina’s 23-16 victory over the Falcons back in Week 5, which helped him to the QB12 finish that week with 20.8 FP.
D.J. Moore has posted 93 receiving yards in three straight games after a slow start to the season, which includes his 4/93/1 receiving performance against the Falcons three weeks ago. On a scary note, Moore has seen more than six targets just once in his last five games so he doesn’t have a lot of room for error.
Robby Anderson is one of four WRs averaging more than 90+ receiving yards per game. He had one of his best games against the Falcons back in Week 5 when he saw a season-high 12 targets for 8/112 receiving. Robby has been so consistent this season that a pair of mid-70 yard performances in the last two weeks are two of his three worst performances.
Curtis Samuel has shown some signs of life with 11+ FP in his last two games, which included a rushing TD with him lined up in the backfield. Samuel has now posted 35+ receiving yards and 3+ catches in four straight games. He recorded 5/36 receiving and 4/28 rushing against the Falcons in Week 5.
Brolley’s Bets
Carolina Panthers -2 (Staff Picks Lean)
Todd Gurley (Atl) anytime touchdown (-120, FoxBet)
Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 3.5 catches (+118, FanDuel)
