Week 7 TNF Trends and Picks


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Week 7 TNF Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

New York Giants (1-5, 3-3 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-4, 2-4), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Giants 20.25, Eagles 24.75

  • Spread/Total Movements: 6 to 4.5, 44 to 45

  • Weather: 65 degrees, clear, 5 mph

  • Giants Injuries to Watch: WR Darius Slayton (foot)

  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: RB Miles Sanders (knee, out), WR Alshon Jeffery (foot, out), DT Malik Jackson (quad, out), CB Avonte Maddox (ankle), OLB Duke Riley (rib), OT Jack Driscoll (ankle)

Giants Trends

  • The Giants have the second-lowest implied team total of the week.

  • The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.

  • New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four Thursday night games.

  • Daniel Jones threw his first TD pass in Week 6 since he connected with Darius Slayton for two scores in the season opener. He’s yet to average more than 6.8 YPA in a game this season, but he has run for 45+ yards in three of his last four games. He’s also turned the ball over eight times in six games, which is something to watch against this Eagles defense. The Eagles have allowed 20+ FP to four good QBs (Lamar/Big Ben/Burrow/Goff) and they held the two lesser QBs they’ve faced to under 13 FP (Haskins/Mullens).

  • Slayton has a league-best 45% air yards share, and he’s turned in consecutive games with 11+ FP, which isn’t a small feat with the state of this passing attack. He figures to see a lot of Darius Slay this week, and the Eagles limited Marquise Brown to 4/57 receiving last week.

  • Sterling Shepard has been designated to return off his toe injury, and Jones could use all the help he can get. Golden Tate has yet to reach 50+ receiving yards in a game. Shepard had 8/66 receiving in his first five quarters before suffering his toe injury.

  • Evan Engram is averaging a pathetic .86 yards per route run to start the season after his 2/30 receiving performance against Washington last week. He’s now failed to top 35 receiving yards in four straight games and in five of his six games. The Eagles have been exploited for most of the season until Mark Andrews managed just 2/21 receiving last week. They’re still giving up 15.7 FPG to TEs this season (4th-most).

  • Devonta Freeman has 15+ touches and 55+ yards in three straight games. The Eagles are allowing 98.4 scrimmage yards per game with just five TDs to RBs this season. Only Darrell Henderson has reached 55+ rushing yards against the Eagles this season.

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles will allow 7,500 spectators this week.

  • These teams are 7-2 toward overs in the last nine meetings in this series.

  • Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games

  • The Eagles have failed to cover their last four games as a favorite.

  • Carson Wentz is still upright for now but we’ll see for how much longer after he absorbed six sacks by the Ravens last week. He’s run off four straight games with 19+ FP with multiple scores in each of those games. He’s run for a touchdown in four of his last five games and he has 35+ rushing yards in three of his last four games. Wentz has thrown nine INTs in the early going, and the Giants haven’t allowed an opposing passer to reach 19+ FP in five straight games.

  • Travis Fulgham has scored a touchdown and he’s posted 13+ FP in three straight games. He managed 6/75/1 receiving on 10 targets in a tough matchup against the Ravens last week, and he’ll be challenged by James Bradberry this week. Wentz figures to force him targets like the Football Team did with Terry McLaurin last week, who posted 7/74 receiving on 12 targets.

  • DeSean Jackson will finally return to the lineup after a three-week layoff for his hamstring injury. He totaled 10/121 receiving on 20 targets through the first 10 quarters of the season.

  • Richard Rodgers would be the #1 TE this week if Dallas Goedert (ankle, IR) isn’t activated. He’s posted 9/99 receiving over the last four weeks as the #2 option behind Zach Ertz. The Giants allowed 3/42/1 receiving to Logan Thomas last week.

  • Miles Sanders (knee) will miss his second game of the year. Boston Scott saw a 56% snap share to Corey Clement’s 37% share in Week 1, and he had 11 opportunities to Clement’s eight. Scott torched the Giants for 266/4 scrimmage in two games late last season, but he hasn’t looked like the same player since then. Antonio Gibson posted 13/55 scrimmage against the Giants last week.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants +4.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Carson Wentz over .5 interceptions (Best Bet)

Devonta Freeman under 54.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 64.3% clip last season and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.