Week 7 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

More Player Props to be added Sunday morning!

• Jamaal Williams (GB) over 24.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Davante Adams (GB) over 83.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Mike Williams (LAC) over 41.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Justin Herbert (LAC) over .5 INTs (+100, DraftKings)

• Josh Allen (Buf) under 280.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• James Conner (Pit) over 63.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Antonio Gibson (Was) over 48.5 rushing yards (-110, William Hill)

• Tyreek Hill (KC) over 59.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Deebo Samuel (SF) over 46.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Nick Foles (Chi) over 22.5 completions (-112, DraftKings)

• Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) under 112.5 rushing and receiving yards (+125, DraftKings) — This is mostly a price play.

• D’Andre Swift (Det) over 21.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)

• Josh Jacobs (LV) under 68.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 34.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Gabriel Davis (Buf) over 38.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Early Afternoon Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (5-0, 2-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Steelers 25, Titans 26

• Spread/Total Movements: Pit -2 to Ten -1, 52.5 to 51

• Weather: 52 degrees, clear, 5 mph

• Steelers Injuries to Watch: LB Devin Bush (ACL, IR), slot CB Mike Hilton (shoulder), FB Derek Watt (hamstring)

• Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (knee), LT Taylor Lewan (ACL, IR), TE Jonnu Smith (ankle), OT Isaiah Wilson (illness)

Steelers Trends

• The Steelers have been favored in every game and they’re off to a 4-1 ATS start.

• Pittsburgh owns a cover margin of 7.2 PPG, which is the second-highest in the NFL.

• James Conner has 15+ FP and 15+ carries in each of his last four games since his Week 1 benching. He came through with his third 100+ yard rushing performance of the season against the Browns in Week 5. He finished with 20/101/1 rushing and he secured his only target for a yard gain while playing a healthy 66% of the snaps despite the Steelers winning in a blowout. David Johnson totaled 69/1 scrimmage against the Titans last week.

• Ben Roethlisberger had his first disappointing fantasy performance last week. He attempted just 22 passes in the blowout victory and he failed to throw for double-digit TDs for the first time this season. The Titans have allowed 12 TDs passes to opposing QBs over the last four games.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn’t reached 50+ receiving yards since Week 1 and he’s fallen below seven FP in each of his last two games after finding the end zone three times in the first three weeks. JuJu has topped out at five targets over the course of his last three games, and his aDOT sits at a lowly 5.0 yards this season after he had an aDOT of 8.7 yards with Big Ben back in 2018. JuJu has failed to get on track the last three weeks even with Diontae Johnson basically missing the last three games because of a concussion and now his back injury. The Titans allowed 3/17/1 receiving to Randall Cobb last week.

• Roethlisberger has prioritized getting the ball into the hands of his perimeter WRs, specifically Chase Claypool. Johnson had a clear path to being the #1 WR for Big Ben with a 32% target share in each of his first two games before suffering injuries over the last four weeks.

• Claypool has taken control of the #1 role with his performances over the first six weeks of his career. He’s seen 69% of the snaps or more in each of the last three games with Johnson out or leaving early. The rookie has a ridiculous 17/335/4 receiving on 24 targets to start his career and he also has 6/21/2 rushing. Both Brandin Cooks (9/68/1 receiving) and Will Fuller (6/123/1) went off in this matchup last week.

• Eric Ebron’s upward trend since Week 2 came to a crashing halt against the Browns last week as he managed just 2/9 receiving on four targets. Cleveland’s incompetence ruined his progress as Roethlisberger needed to throw it just 22 times in the victory. Big Ben and Ebron, by extension, will be much more active this week in a battle of unbeaten teams against the Titans. Darren Fells just ripped the Titans for 6/85/1 receiving last week.

Titans Trends

• The Titans allowed the stadium to reopen to spectators at 12.5 % capacity last week, which is expected to gradually increase.

• The Titans have played over the total in four straight games, and they’ve played over the total in four straight home games.

• Derrick Henry has snapped out of his TD funk to start the year with two TDs in each of his last three games. He erupted for 212/2 rushing and 2/52 receiving against the Texans last week. Pittsburgh limited the league’s best rushing offense to just 75 yards last week, and they’re allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (40.8) but they just lost 2019 first-round pick Devin Bush (ACL) for the season.

• Ryan Tannehill has 29+ FP in each of his last two games and he has 26+ FP in three of his last four games. His TD rate is sitting at 7.5% this season after he ended last year with a 7.7% rate. He will go against Pittsburgh’s fierce pass rush this week without Taylor Lewan (ACL, IR). The Steelers have yet to allow 20+ FP to a QB this season, but they had allowed two passing TDs in each of their first four games until they played Baker Mayfield last week. Mayfield threw for just 119 yards with two INTs while absorbing four sacks.

• A.J. Brown has 5+ catches and 7+ targets in each of his first three games, and he’s posted 21+ FP in each of his last two games without Corey Davis in the fold. The Steelers have allowed top perimeter WRs Travis Fulgham (10/152/1), Will Fuller (4/54/1), and Darius Slayton (6/102/2) to post 15+ FP.

• Corey Davis opened the year with three straight games with 11+ FP before landing on the COVID-19 list. He did play two of those games without Brown in the lineup, and no secondary perimeter WR has reached double-digit FP against the Steelers.

• Jonnu Smith suffered a minor ankle sprain in the first half last week, which forced him to leave early and has him in jeopardy of missing a pivotal matchup with the Steelers. Anthony Firkser turned into Jonnu by scoring on an end-zone target and rumbling for 45 yards on a deep ball from Tannehill. Firkser ended his day with 8/113/1 receiving on nine targets against the Texans. Titan tight ends now have seven TDs in just five games. This matchup isn’t easiest against a Steelers defense that’s allowing the ninth-fewest FPG to TEs (7.33), but Pittsburgh did just lose stud Bush for the season.

Brolley’s Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

James Conner (Pit) over 63.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Detroit Lions (2-3, 2-3 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5, 2-4), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Lions 26.25, Falcons 28.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2.5, 55.5 to 55
• Weather: Dome
• Lions Injuries to Watch: WR Marvin Jones (knee), DE Trey Flowers (wrist), CB Desmond Trufant (hamstring), WR Danny Amendola (foot), C Frank Ragnow (groin), DE Julian Okwara (leg, IR)
• Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), WR Calvin Ridley (elbow), DE Dante Fowler (ankle), DE Takk McKinley (groin), CB Kendall Sheffield (foot)

Lions Trends

• The Lions finally let D’Andre Swift loose coming out of their bye week as he posted 14/116/2 rushing. He saw three goal-line carries after seeing just one goal-line tote through the first four games. He still played on just 38% of the snaps while Adrian Peterson handled 35% of the snaps and 16 touches so this isn’t necessarily Swift’s backfield going forward. The Falcons are one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses as they’re allowing just 63.0 rushing yards per game to RBs (7th-fewest) but they are allowing 7.2 receptions per game to opposing RB
• Matthew Stafford has attempted just 31 passes in each of his last three games with Darrell Bevell going back to his roots with Peterson and the running game. He’s reached 20+ FP just once in five games, and he’s fallen under 245 passing yards three times. The Falcons have allowed 26+ FP to opposing QBs in five of their six games.
• Kenny Golladay has 4+ catches in each of his three games this season with a touchdown or 100+ yards in each of those games. The Falcons are allowing the second-most YPA (8.4) this season, and vertical threat Justin Jefferson just 9/166/2 receiving last week
• Marvin Jones is seeing just an 11% target share since Golladay returned to the lineup. He might get some “squeaky wheel treatment” this week after Bevell acknowledged he hasn’t done a good job getting him the ball. The Lions have given up 13+ FP to two different WRs in five of their six games.
• T.J. Hockenson has scored 9+ FP in all five games but TDs have really bailed him out in the last two games as he’s totaled just four catches for 26 receiving yards. He does have six end-zone, which ranks fourth in the league. The Falcons have allowed a league-high seven TDs to TEs in the early going.

Falcons Trends

• The Falcons have been allowing fans to attend games at a limited capacity.
• The Falcons win and cover last week makes interim coaches 2-0 in their first game this season.
• Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.
• The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.
• Atlanta is 5-2 toward overs in its last seven games.
• Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense just needed a healthy Julio Jones to snap out of their offensive funk. The veteran QB had gone 11 straight quarters without a TD pass that spanned from the second quarter of Week 3 through Week 5, which coincided with Julio struggling to stay on the field because of his hamstring injury. Ryan broke out in style by completing 30/40 passes for 371 yards (9.3 YPA) and four touchdowns against the Vikings. He’s now finished as a top-6 QB or better in games that Julio has finished. The Lions limited the Jaguars to 5.5 YPA last week, but they have allowed multiple TDs to every QB they’ve faced this season.
• Julio looked back to 100% off of his hamstring injury last week. He blitzed the Vikings for 8/137/2 receiving on 10 targets to finish as the WR2 for the week. A healthy Julio lifted the entire offense, and he can once again be used with some confidence as a WR1, including this week against the Lions.
• Calvin Ridley 16+ FP in every game outside of his goose egg against the Packers in Week 4. He posted 6/61/1 receiving on seven targets with Julio returning to the lineup last week. The Falcons have given up 11+ FP to two different WRs in their last three games.
• Hayden Hurst scored a 35-yard TD on a busted coverage last week. He now has 38+ yards in four games with just nine combined yards in his other two games. The Lions have allowed TDs to the only fantasy relevant TEs they’ve faced this season (Graham/Tonyan).
• Todd Gurley had a season-high 23 touches last week, which he turned into just 67 scrimmage yards. He failed to find the end zone for the second time this season. The Lions limited the Jaguars to 2.8 YPC coming out of their bye last week, but they’ve still allowed six overall TDs to RBs in five games this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

D’Andre Swift (Det) over 21.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Cleveland Browns (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4, 4-2), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Browns 27, Bengals 23.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 3.5, 52 to 50.5
• Weather: 55 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Browns Injuries to Watch: RB Kareem Hunt (ribs), WR Jarvis Landry (rib), QB Baker Mayfield (ribs), DT Sheldon Richardson (Achille), RG Wyatt Teller (calf), C JC Tretter (knee), S Andrew Sendejo (shin), S Karl Joseph (hamstring)
• Bengals Injuries to Watch: RB Joe Mixon (foot), CB William Jackson (concussion), S Shawn Williams (hamstring)

Browns Trends

• These teams are 5-0-1 toward overs in the last six games in this series.
• The Browns snapped a four-game over streak last week.
• Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.
• The Browns have been outscored 106-48 in their first go-through in the division.
• The Browns saw steady support in the betting markets leading up to Week 6, which turned out to be a huge mistake with Baker Mayfield trying to play through a rib injury. Mayfield absorbed four sacks and he threw two INTs before HC Kevin Stefanski mercifully pulled the plug in the third quarter. Baker has averaged more than 6.8 YPA just once in six games and that came against the Bengals in Week 2 when a healthy Mayfield completed 16/23 passes for 219 yards, two TDs, and one INT.
• Odell Beckham managed just 2/25 receiving on four targets against the Steelers last week. OBJ has now finished under 10 FP in half of his games. OBJ hasn’t topped 90+ receiving yards in 16 games. He managed 4/74/1 receiving on six targets against the Bengals in Week 2.
• Jarvis Landry didn’t fare much better last week with 3/40 on five targets. Landry has now finished under 10 FP in half of his games. He managed just 3/46 receiving on three targets against the Bengals in Week 2.
• Austin Hooper has five catches and 6+ targets in three straight games. He managed just 2/22 receiving on four targets in this matchup earlier this season when he wasn’t heavily involved. The Bengals just allowed 7/82/2 to Trey Burton and Jack Doyle last week.
• Kareem Hunt managed 150 scrimmage yards in his first two games as the bell-cow back in tough matchups against the Steelers and the Colts. He gets a much easier matchup against the Bengals this week, whom he posted 12/101/2 scrimmage against in Week 2.

Bengals Trends

• The Bengals are allowing up to 12,000 fans at games.
• The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games in this series.
• Cleveland beat the Bengals 35-30 in Week 2, but the Bengals earned the ATS cover with a late touchdown drive.
• The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Joe Burrow is averaging 41.0 passes per game through six games and he’s thrown for 300+ yards four times already, which puts him two 300-yard games away from tying Andrew Luck’s rookie record of six 300-yard games. He needed 61 passes in comeback mode against the Browns earlier this season, but he threw for 316 yards and three TDs back against Cleveland in Week 2.
• Tyler Boyd has seen a 20% target share or better in his last four games, but he disappointed a bit the last two weeks with 9/96 receiving. He posted 7/72/1 receiving against the Browns in Week 2. The Browns limited JuJu Smith-Schuster to just 2/6 receiving last week but he was a non-factor in their gameplan.
• Tee Higgins has hung double-digit FP ever since A.J. Green caught just three of his 13 targets against the Browns in Week 2. Higgins has 7+ targets and 4+ catches in those four games with a 20% target share or better. Green decided to play last week after he got raked over the coals for his lack of effort in Week 5, posting 8/96 receiving on 11 targets against the Colts. Steelers perimeter WRs Chase Claypool and James Washington combined 149/2 scrimmage against the Browns last week.
• Joe Mixon picked up a foot injury last week, which limited him to 53% of the snaps. He still managed 20 touches for 69 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. James Conner posted 20/101/1 rushing in this matchup last week, and Mixon posted 20/86 scrimmage against the Browns back in Week 2. Mixon isn’t practicing Friday.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns -3 (Best Bet)

Green Bay Packers (4-1, 4-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (1-5, 1-5), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Packers 30.25, Texans 26.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 56 to 57
• Weather: Dome
• Packers Injuries to Watch: TE Robert Tonyan (ankle), LT David Bakhtiari (chest), LB Preston Smith (shoulder), LB Za’Darius Smith (ankle), CB Kevin King (quad), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), S Darnell Savage (quad), DE Tyler Lancaster (shoulder), RB Tyler Ervin (wrist), ILB Krys Barnes (shoulder), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (knee)
• Texans Injuries to Watch: TE Jordan Akins (ankle), LT Laremy Tunsil (shoulder), LG Senio Kelemete (knee)

Packers Trends

• Green Bay has the highest implied team total this week.
• The Packers dropped their first game and they failed to cover the spread for the first time last week.
• Green Bay has played over the total in five of its last seven games.
• Houston’s defense coughed up a late lead and they allowed 8.6 yards per play.
• The Packers netted just 107 passing yards on 41 dropbacks for an average of 2.6 yards per dropback.
• Aaron Rodgers struggled for the first time last week in his first step up in class after playing Min/Det/NO/Atl to start the season. He threw for 13 TDs and 0 INTs in those games before throwing 0 TDs and two INTs last week against the Bucs. He gets another step down in class this week going against a Texans defense that’s allowed 300+ yards and multiple passing TDs in consecutive weeks.
• With that said, the Texans are still a run-funnel defense after getting torched for 264/2 scrimmage against Derrick Henry last week. They’ve now allowed 100+ rushing yards to four individual backs this season. Aaron Jones has posted 13+ FP in every game this season, and he survived a brutal matchup with the Buccaneers last week by finding the end zone.
• Davante Adams stepped back into the lineup to 10 targets last week and he finished with 6/61 receiving despite Rodgers’ struggles. Davante has now seen 10+ targets in 12 of his last 13 games (playoffs included). A.J. Brown posted 5/56/2 receiving in this matchup last week.
• Robert Tonyan played through an in-game hip injury last week and he mustered just 3/25 receiving on four targets. Tonyan has five TDs over the last four weeks but he’s averaging just 4.5 targets per game in that span. Anthony Firkser just ripped the Texans for 8/113/1 receiving last week.

Texans Trends

• The Texans are allowing fans at nearly 20% capacity.
• The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and they’re 5-2 toward overs in that same span.
• Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 homes games
• The Texans clawed back from a two-touchdown deficit last week against the Titans with Deshaun Watson throwing for 335 yards and four TDs. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and multiple TDs in each of the last three weeks while the Packers have allowed multiple TD passes in four of their five games.
• Outside of his bizarre goose egg in Week 2, Fuller has 15+ FP in every game with TDs in each of his last four contests. He also has 4+ catches and 50+ receiving yards in five of his six games. He draws a tough matchup against Jaire Alexander this week, who is allowing just .7 yards per coverage snap.
• Brandin Cooks has 17/229/2 receiving on 21 targets in his first two games without Bill O’Brien after posting 10/138 on 21 targets in his first four games of the season. Cooks could also see some of Alexander this week. Chris Godwin managed just 5/48 receiving last week against the Packers even with Mike Evans mostly locked up with Alexander.
• Randall Cobb has 10+ FP in four of his last five games but he’s topped 11+ FP just once in that span.
• Darren Fells has been the TE2 with 17.1 FPG in Weeks 5-6, hauling in eight of his nine targets for 142 yards and two TDs. Jordan Akins didn’t even make the trip to Nashville last week, which suggests he’s week-to-week right now with his high-ankle injury. The Texans could give Akins another two weeks to heal with their bye coming up in Week 8, and the Packers just gave up 5/78/1 receiving to Rob Gronkowski last week.
• David Johnson played on 81% of the snaps last week, but he’s been a middling option in each of the last four weeks as he’s scored between 11-13 FP in every game in that span. Ronald Jones just gashed the Packers for 23/113/2 rushing last week, and Green Bay has allowed 19+ FP to an individual back in four of their five games.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Jamaal Williams (GB) over 24.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Davante Adams (GB) over 83.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Carolina Panthers (3-3, 3-3 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (3-2, 2-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Panthers 29.25, Saints 21.75
• Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
• Weather: Dome
• Panthers Injuries to Watch: WR Curtis Samuel (knee), RB John Miller (ankle), DT Zach Kerr (toe), CB Donte Jackson (toe), K Joey Slye (COVID-19 list)
• Saints Injuries to Watch: WR Michael Thomas (hamstring), LT Terron Armstead (ankle/hamstring), WR Bennie Fowler (shoulder)

Panthers Trends

• Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series.
• The Panthers had their three-game winning streak and their three-game covers streak snapped last week.
• Carolina has played under the total in four straight games.
• Teddy Bridgewater completed just 55% of his passes and he threw two interceptions against the Bears last week, but his receivers crushed him with several dropped passes. Bridgewater has been snakebitten with just a 2.9% TD rate with six TDs on 206 attempts to start the year, but he’s still averaging 8.1 YPA and 279.3 passing yards per game. He could get positive TD regression against a Saints defense that’s allowing a TD on 8.8% of the passes against them (15 TDs on 171 attempts).
• Robby Anderson reached double-digit FP for the sixth straight game to start the season even though he’s scored just one TD to start the year. The Saints have been ripped for 16+ FP by top perimeter WRs in each of their last three games by Mike Williams (5/109/2 receiving), Kenny Golladay (4/62/1), and Allen Lazard (6/146/1).
• D.J. Moore is trending upward the last two weeks with 93 receiving yards in each game, and he saw a season-best 38% target share last week. Moore hung 6/126/2 receiving in his only matchup with the Saints last season. Marshon Lattimore didn’t play in that game last season, but he’s allowing 1.67 yards per coverage snap through five games.
• Mike Davis managed just 55 scrimmage yards, two catches, and a fumble last week, but he still played on 92% of the snaps and he scored a TD. The Saints are allowing just 3.6 YPC so far, but Justin Jackson posted 15/71 rushing and 5/23 receiving in a part-time role in New Orleans’ last game.

Saints Trends

• The Saints will allow up to 3,000 fans to attend this week.
• The Raiders and the Saints are the only teams to play over the total in every game this season.
• These teams are 6-1 toward overs in the last seven games in this series.
• New Orleans has played over the total in five straight games.
• The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
• Drew Brees has finished with 17 or fewer FP in three of his first five games and he has 22+ FP in his other two games. He’ll get Michael Thomas back for the first time since the season opener. The Panthers run-funnel defense has allowed just six passing TDs through five games. Kyler Murray is the only QB to throw for multiple TDs against them.
• Thomas posted just 3/17 receiving on five targets in his only game this season after averaging 9.3/107.8/.56 receiving on 11.6 targets per game last season. Opposing top WRs are averaging 11.4 targets per game against the Panthers’ zone-heavy schemes.
• Emmanuel Sanders emerged as Brees’ top option with Thomas out of the lineup after a slow first two weeks. He’s posted 18/215 receiving on 23 targets over their last two games without Thomas. As noted above, top wideouts have been funneled targets against the Panthers secondary so Sanders is likely to see a decline in work this week with Thomas back.
• Jared Cook has topped out at two catches in each of his last three games, but he’s turned two of his six catches into touchdowns, continuing a trend from last season. He’s scored on 11.1% of his targets so far after scoring on 18.3% of his targets last season (9 of 65). The Panthers have allowed just one TD to a tight end this season.
• Alvin Kamara saw a season-low 17 touches in his only game with Thomas in Week 1 as he’s averaging 20.5 touches per game in his four games without Thomas. He failed to score for the first time in their last game against the Chargers, but he still caught eight passes and posted 119 scrimmage yards. The Panthers have allowed nine TDs to RBs and they’re allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (30.2) this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Carolina Panthers +7.5 (Best Bet)

Buffalo Bills (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at New York Jets (0-6, 0-6), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Bills 28.5, Jets 16.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 11 to 13.5 to 12, 46.5 to 45
• Weather: 55 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Bills Injuries to Watch: WR John Brown (knee), CB Tre’Davious White (back), TE Dawson Knox (calf), LB Matt Milano (pec), LG Cody Ford (knee), CB Josh Norman (hamstring)
• Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Jamison Crowder (groin), QB Sam Darnold (shoulder), LG Alex Lewis (shoulder), LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder), RT George Fant (knee), K Sam Ficken (groin)

Bills Trends

• The Bills beat the Jets 27-17 in the season opener but it took Buffalo’s Tyler Bass missing a pair of short field goals to make the end result look a lot closer.
• The Bills played under the total for the first time last week against the Chiefs.
• Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games.
• Josh Allen has started to look like the 2018-19 version of himself in the last two weeks. He averaged just 4.5 YPA and he completed just 51.9% of his passes last week against the Chiefs. He could easily get back on track this week against a Jets defense that he shredded for 312/2 passing and 57/1 rushing back in the season opener.
• John Brown clearly isn’t right playing through a knee injury. He has just 4/42 receiving since Week 2, which includes two goose eggs and a missed game. Brown posted 6/70/1 receiving against the Jets in Week 1. Gabriel Davis would be the next WR up and he posted 5/58 receiving when Brown missed in Week 5.
• Stefon Diggs has posted 14+ FP in every game this season and he has 6+ catches in five of his first six games. He has three games with 100+ yards and three games with a TD. He posted 8/86 receiving on nine targets in his first game with the Bills against the Jets.
• Devin Singletary saw 41 snaps and 11 touches compared to Zack Moss’ 14 snaps and five touches last week. Singletary posted 9/30 rushing and 5/23 receiving against the Jets back in Week 1 while Moss had 9/11 rushing and 3/16/1 receiving. The Jets have been gashed on the ground since then and they’re allowing 25.8 FPG to RBs (5th-most).

Jets Trends

• The Jets are not allowing fans until further notice.
• The Jets have the lowest implied team total of the week.
• New York is winless both straight up and against the spread through six weeks with an average margin of defeat by 18.3 points.
• The Jets have failed to cover by an average of 11.3 points per game, which is the worst in the NFL.
• The Jets and the Cowboys are the last two teams that have failed to cover a spread this season.
• The Jets finished 2-of-17 on third downs in the loss to the Dolphins with Joe Flacco at the helm. It looks like Sam Darnold (throwing shoulder) will try to play this week after getting limited practices this week. He completed 21/35 passes for 215 yards, one TD, and one INT against the Bills earlier this season.
• Jamison Crowder has double-digit targets and 7+ catches in each of his four games this season, including a 7/115/1 receiving performance against the Bills earlier this season. Crowder has 7+ catches and 65+ yards in each of his three games against the Bills while with the Jets.
• Breshad Perriman returned to the lineup last week, posting 4/62 receiving on eight targets. He managed just 3/17 receiving on five targets against Tre’Davious White and company last week.
• La’Mical Perine played 16 more snaps than Frank Gore last week but Gore owned an 11-7 advantage in carries. The Jets have one goal-line carry in their first six games this season. The Bills got pushed around up front by the Chiefs last week with Clyde Edwards-Helaire running for 161 yards, but the Bills won’t exactly be playing with such light boxes going against this Jets passing attack.

Brolley’s Bets

Buffalo Bills -11 (Best Bet)

Josh Allen (Buf) under 280.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Gabriel Davis (Buf) over 38.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Dallas Cowboys (2-4, 0-6 ATS) at Washington Football Team (1-5, 3-3), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 23.5, Washington 22.5
• Spread/Total Movements: Dal -3 to Was -1 to Dal -1, 47.5 to 46
• Weather: 53 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Cowboys Injuries to Watch: RG Zack Martin (concussion), LT Brandon Knight (knee, out), DE Aldon Smith (neck)
• Washington Injuries to Watch: WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (hamstring), WR Isaiah Wright (shoulder),

Cowboys Trends

• The Cowboys and the Jets are the last two teams that have failed to cover a spread this season.
• The Cowboys have by far the league’s worst turnover margin at -12. The Eagles and the Vikings are next closest at -7.
• The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in this series.
• Dallas hasn’t covered a spread in its last four road games.
• Andy Dalton needed 54 attempts to throw for 266 yards (4.9 YPA), one TD, and two INTs against the Cardinals last week. His O-line is disintegrating and his skill players didn’t help him out at all last week, but he was a clear step down from Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have trailed by at least seven points in every game this season, and they’re now underdogs to Washington this week. He’s got a chance for volume again this week and the Football Team has allowed multiple TDs every QB they’ve faced until Daniel Jones face-planted last week.
• Ezekiel Elliot lost two fumbles last week, which gives him four lost fumbles for the season. He still got to 20+ touches for the sixth straight time to start the season, and he now has 6+ catches in four of his last five games with the Cowboys playing from behind so much. The Football Team is allowing just 102.7 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs so far.
• Amari Cooper has seen 9+ targets in five of his six games this season, and he has 6+ catches and 75+ yards in each of those contests. Robert Woods posted 4/71/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
• CeeDee Lamb has 5+ catches and 55+ yards in every game this season after a 7/64 receiving performance last week. Cooper Kupp posted 5/66 receiving on eight targets in this matchup two weeks ago.
• Michael Gallup dropped a touchdown pass last week, which further cemented his spot as the #3 option at WR. He’s seen more than six targets just once this season and he’s found the end zone just once. Darius Slayton posted 2/41/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
• The Andy Dalton Schultz connection didn’t produce much in their first full week together. Dalton Schultz finished with 4/35 receiving on five targets against the Cardinals. The Football Team is allowing the fourth-most FPG to the position (15.5), including the fourth-most receiving yards at 56.8.

Washington Trends

• The Football Team isn’t expected to have fans this week.
• These teams have played over the total in eight of their last nine games in this series.
• Washington is 4-1 toward overs in its last five home games.
• The Football Team is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
• Antonio Gibson has caught 3+ passes in four straight games, which masks that he’s totaled more than 60 scrimmage yards just once this season. He’s failed to find the end zone the last two weeks after scoring in three straight games in Weeks 2-4. The Cowboys have allowed 16+ FP to individual RBs over the last three weeks (Drake/Freeman/Hunt).
• Kyler Murray needed just nine completions to throw for 188 yards and two TDs against Dallas last week. Kyle Allen did have two turnovers last week, but he nearly led the Football Team to a comeback victory with 280/2 passing (18 FP) against the Giants. This is the highest totaled game (47.5 points) Washington has played in over a calendar year, and Allen could ride a Terry McLaurin blow-up game to a serviceable fantasy day.
• McLaurin has just one TD in the early going playing in this offense, but he’s seen the fifth-most targets (58) at the position after posting 7/74 receiving on 12 targets against the Giants last week. The Cowboys are giving up the third-most FPG to WRs (38.2), and they’ve allowed nine individuals to top 15+ FP in six games this season.
• Logan Thomas showed his first signs of life since Week 1 with 3/42/1 receiving on four targets against the Giants. He’s seen just four targets in each of his last three games, but the Football Team has nothing at receiver behind McLaurin. Dallas is allowing the eighth-most FPG to TEs this season (14.2).

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys +1 (Staff Pick Lean)

Antonio Gibson (Was) over 48.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) under 112.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2, 3-2), 4:05 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Buccaneers 28, Raiders 24
• Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2.5 to 4, 53.5 to 52
• Weather: Dome
• Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Mike Evans (ankle), WR Chris Godwin (hamstring), TE Rob Gronkowski (shoulder), WR Scotty Miller (hip), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee), S Antoine Winfield (shoulder), CB Carlton Davis (knee), ILB Lavonte David (knee),
• Raiders Injuries to Watch: C Rodney Hudson (COVID-19 list), LT Kolton Miller (COVID-19 list), OT Trent Brown (COVID-19 list), LG Denzelle Good (COVID-19 list), OG Gabe Jackson (COVID-19 list), S Johnathan Abram (COVID-19 list), DT Maliek Collins (shoulder), WR Bryan Edwards (ankle), S Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring), DE Carl Nassib (toe)

Buccaneers Trends

• The Buccaneers are 5-2 toward overs in their last seven games as a favorite.
• Ronald Jones has played on 63% of the snaps over the last three weeks with Leonard Fournette (ankle) out or limited, and he’s been the RB3 in that span with three 100-yard rushing games. He gets a cushy spot to continue his momentum against a Raiders that’s allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (33.6), which includes 100.0 rushing yards allowed per game.
• The Buccaneers defense easily handled the Packers last week, which limited Tom Brady to just 27 attempts and 166/2 passing. He’s now averaged 6.6 YPA or fewer in four of his six starts in Tampa after last week. The Raiders gave up two performances of 25+ FP against Josh Allen (288/2 passing) and Patrick Mahomes (340/2) in their last two games before their bye.
• Mike Evans has seen just 10 targets and he’s posted just 4/14/3 receiving in the three games that Chris Godwin has played in this season as Evans continues to play through leg injuries during that span. He gets a middling matchup against a Raiders defense that’s allowing 35.8 FPG (16th-most).
• Godwin has seen 20 targets in his three games and he has 5+ catches in each game, but he failed to reach 10+ FP with just 48 yards last week. His aDOT now sits at just 7.1 yards playing with Brady after it sat at 9.3 yards with Jameis Winston last season.
• Rob Gronkowski saw more than 80% of the snaps for the fourth straight week, and he posted team-best marks in targets (8), receptions (5), and receiving yards (78) while scoring his first TD of the season in Week 6. The Raiders have given up TDs to the two viable fantasy TEs they’ve faced this season in Jared Cook (2/13/1 receiving) and Travis Kelce (8/108/1).

Raiders Trends

• The Raiders are not currently allowing fans.
• The Raiders and the Saints are the only teams to play over the total in every game this season.
• Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
• Josh Jacobs has seen 18+ touches in every game this season, but he’s averaged 3.7 YPC or fewer in four of his five games. He’s struggled in his toughest matchups of the season against the Patriots (10.3 FP) and Saints (13.5), and he gets another tough matchup against the Buccaneers this week. The Buccaneers are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (48.5).
• Derek Carr is coming off his best performance of the season against the Chiefs before their Week 6 bye as he posted 347/3 passing against the Chiefs. He’s now thrown for multiple scores in four straight games, but he’ll run into a bit of a buzzsaw this week. The Buccaneers have held five QBs under 15 FP in six games, including Aaron Rodgers (160/0 passing). Tampa Bay sacked Rodgers four times and they picked him off twice, with Jamel Dean taking one of those picks to the house.
• Carr’s best game coincided with Henry Rugg’s return to the lineup in Week 5 as they connected twice for 118/1 receiving on three targets. Ruggs’ role will hopefully expand in the near future, but he’s been mostly a shot-play receiver in the early going with just 11 total targets in three games. This is a tough matchup against a Buccaneers defense that’s allowing the fewest 20+ yards passes per game so far with just 2.3.
• Darren Waller has 7+ targets, 5+ catches, 45+ receiving yards, and 10+ FP in four of his first five games — the Patriots were the only team to tie him down in Week 3. No tight end has reached 50+ receiving yards against the Bucs since the season opener, but they did allow TDs in Weeks 4-5 before shutting down Robert Tonyan (3/25 receiving) last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (Staff Pick Lean)

Josh Jacobs (LV) under 68.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 34.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 4-1), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 27.5, Broncos 18
• Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 9.5, 49 to 45.5
• Weather: 20 degrees, 90% chance of snow (1”), 5-10 mph
• Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring)
• Broncos Injuries to Watch: WR K.J. Hamler (hamstring), LG Dalton Risner (shoulder), TE Jake Butt (hamstring), LB Jeremiah Attaochu (quad)

Chiefs Trends

• The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.
• Kansas City has played six straight games under the total on the road.
• The Chiefs are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
• Patrick Mahomes has topped 20+ FP in every game this season but he’s scored exactly 20 FP three different times this year, including last week against the Bills. The Broncos have allowed either multiple TD passes or 75+ rushing yards with a rushing TD to every QB they’ve faced.
• Travis Kelce was due for some positive TD regression this season and he’s seeing it with five TDs in his first six games after scoring five TDs in 16 games last season. He has 50+ receiving yards in every game and 5+ catches in five of his six games. Kelce posted 17/186/0 receiving in two games against Vic Fangio’s defense last season.
• Tyreek Hill flopped for the first time last week with just 3/20 receiving on three targets against the Bills, ending a five-game run of finding the end zone with 15+ FP. Hill posted 8/141/3 receiving against the Broncos last season.
• Mecole Hardman didn’t catch a pass and he played 40 fewer snaps than DeMarcus Robinson in Week 6 (69 to 29). Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is once again expected to miss this week.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 6.2 YPC against Buffalo, and he’s forced the most missed tackles this season with 29. He’s seen 18+ opportunities in every and he’s now third in scrimmage yards (682), but Le’Veon Bell will be added to the mix this week. After some early-season struggles against James Conner (106/1 rushing) and Derrick Henry (116/0), the Broncos have shut down three straight running games and they’re now allowing the third-fewest FPG to RBs (17.5).

Broncos Trends

• The Broncos are allowing up to 5,700 fans.
• Denver has the second-lowest implied team total of the week.
• These teams are 3-0-1 toward unders in the last four meetings in this series.
• The Broncos are off to a 4-1 ATS start despite their 2-3 overall record.
• Denver is 13-4 toward unders in its last 17 home games.
• The Broncos failed to score a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 6, but Drew Lock played much better than his numbers showed as the Broncos dropped three would-be touchdowns. He attempted nine passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield for a 37.5 deep-ball rate, and he’s leading the league with a 27.4% rate. Kansas City’s defense held Josh Allen to 4.5 YPA and 16.1 FP last week.
• Tim Patrick has a 29% target share over the last two games and he has 14+ FP in three straight games. He now leads them in receptions (20) and yards (310) despite his limited role early in the season. The Chiefs are allowing the fifth-fewest FPG to WRs (30.6), including the second-fewest receptions per game (10.0).
• Jerry Jeudy has seen a target share of 18% or better in four of his five games, and he owns a 21% share for the season. He now has just two catches in each of his last two games with Noah Fant (ankle) out or leaving early. Cole Beasley posted 4/45/1 receiving out of the slot against the Bills last week.
• Fant will try to give it a go this week. He has 4+ catches in every game this season but his production has gone down every week that he’s been on the field (19.10>17.7>9.6>8.5). Darren Waller posted 5/48/1 receiving against the Chiefs in Week 5. Albert Okwuegbunam, who dropped a TD last week, would be his fill-in again this week if Fant can’t play.

Brolley’s Bets

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Tyreek Hill (KC) over 59.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-4, 4-1), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 20.75, Chargers 28.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 8 to 7.5
• Weather: Dome
• Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR D.J. Chark (ankle), WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring), RG A.J. Cann (shoulder), DE Josh Allen (knee), TE Tyler Eifert (neck), LG Andrew Norwell (ankle)
• Chargers Injuries to Watch: WR Keenan Allen (back), RB Justin Jackson (knee), RT Bryan Bulaga (back), DT Linval Joseph (elbow), RG Trai Turner (groin), WR KJ Hill (hip)

Jaguars Trends

• The Jaguars are on a four-game ATS losing streak.
• Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.
• The Jaguars have allowed 27+ points in every game this season, including 30+ points in five straight contests.
• Gardner Minshew has been in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 range all season outside of his Thursday night dud against the Dolphins when he played without D.J. Chark. He’s accounted for multiple TDs in five of his six games this season, and he’ll be chasing production once again this week as 7.5-point road underdogs in a game totaled at 49.5 points. The Chargers have allowed three different QBs to reach 22+ FP in five games.
• D.J. Chark saw a season-high 32% target share last week, but he turned those 14 looks into just 7/45 receiving against the Lions. Chark has 11+ FP in four of his five games this season. Top WRs Emmanuel Sanders (12/122 receiving) and Mike Evans (7/122/1) have gone off against the Chargers in their last two games.
• Keelan Cole exploded for 6/143 receiving on nine targets last week, giving him 15+ FP in three of his six games — he’s scored 8+ FP in every game. The Chargers are allowing 36.7 FPG to WRs this season (13th-most).
• Laviska Shenault had been trending upward until he disappointed with 3/10 receiving against the Lions. He still saw seven targets last week, which gives him 6+ opportunities in every game this season.
• James Robinson managed just 12/29 rushing last week and he’s now finished with fewer than 50 rushing yards in three of his last four games. He’s staying afloat because of his passing game chops, with 4+ catches in each of his last four games. Robinson has put the ball on the turf in each of the last two games — losing one. The Chargers are the only team that hasn’t allowed a rushing TD to a RB this season, but they are allowing 7.8 catches per game to RBs (tied for the most).

Chargers Trends

• The Chargers are not currently allowing fans.
• The Chargers are off to a 4-1 ATS start despite their 1-4 overall record.
• The Chargers are 5-0 toward unders in their last five games as a home favorite.
• Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.
• Justin Herbert has reached 23+ FP in three of his four starts as he’s thrown for 300+ yards or multiple TDs in each of his four starts this season. The Jaguars have allowed 27+ points in every game this season, including 30+ points in five straight contests.
• One concern for the passing game this week is if Anthony Lynn could ride his running game if they build a multi-score lead as they’re expected to do as eight-point home favorites. The Chargers will likely go with the hot-hand approach with Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley this week after Jackson leapfrogged Kelley in their last game. Jackson took over the Austin Ekeler role and posted 20/94 scrimmage on 42 snaps in Week 5 while Kelley stayed in his role and managed just 12/38 scrimmage on 25 snaps. The Jaguars just allowed D’Andre Swift (123/2 scrimmage) and Adrian Peterson (58/1) to go off in the same game last week.
• Keenan Allen found the end zone in Week 5 before leaving with back spasms, which gives him four straight games with double-digit FP since Herbert took over. The Jaguars are giving up the 14th-most FPG to WRs (36.4)
• Mike Williams stepped up in Week 5 when Allen left, posting 5/109/2 receiving against the Saints. The Jaguars have struggled with downfield threats in each of their last two games with Kenny Golladay (4/105 receiving), Will Fuller (4/58/1), and Brandin Cooks (8/161/1) each reaching 14+ FP.
• Hunter Henry has been relatively steady through five games, scoring between 10-14 FP in four of his first five games after scoring his first TD of the season last week. The Jaguars have allowed a tight end to score in two straight games and in three of their last four contests.

Brolley’s Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars +8 (Staff Pick Lean)

Mike Williams (LAC) over 41.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Justin Herbert (LAC) over .5 INTs (Best Bet)

San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 3-3 ATS) at New England Patriots (2-3, 2-3), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: 49ers 20.75, Patriots 22.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 2, 45.5 to 42.5
• Weather: 48 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• 49ers Injuries to Watch: RB James White (undisclosed), WR Julian Edelman (knee), RG Shaq Mason (calf), DB Kyle Dugger (ankle), DT Adam Butler (shoulder)
• Patriots Injuries to Watch: RB Raheem Mostert (ankle, out), RB Jeff Wilson (calf), LB Kwon Alexander (ankle), S Jaquiski Tartt (groin), LT Trent Williams (ankle)

49ers Trends

• San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
• The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
• The 49ers are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games as an underdog.
• Jimmy Garoppolo looked much healthier last week thanks to a gameplan filled with passes behind the line of scrimmage. He completed 23/33 passes for 268 yards and three TDs against the Rams, which was his third performance with multiple TDs in four games. The Patriots are allowing just 17.2 FPG to QBs (6th-fewest) this season.
• Deebo Samuel was the biggest beneficiary of those behind the LOS targets as all six of his targets came on those glorified handoffs, which he turned into 6/66/1 receiving. He had just 5/54 receiving in his first two games. He gets a tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore and company but he should see more of those cheap targets this week.
• George Kittle will be the focus for Bill Belichick after the Patriots HC said that Kittle was as good as any TE that he’s coached or played against. The Patriots limited Darren Waller to 2/9 receiving in Week 3 while Travis Kelce had season-low three catches, which went for a very healthy 70 yards. Kittle has posted 4/44 receiving in two games and he’s blown up for 7+ catches, 100+ yards, and a TD in his other two games.
• Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t topped 45+ receiving yards in a game since Deebo returned to the lineup, but he’s still found the end zone twice in that span. The Seahawks are the only team to have two WRs clear 50+ receiving yards in the same game.
• Jerick McKinnon is back to leading this backfield with Jamycal Hasty and Jeff Wilson factoring in behind him after Raheem Mostert suffered an ankle injury last week. McKinnon handled 38 touches in two games as the lead back in Weeks 3-4, which he turned into 174/2 scrimmage. HC Kyle Shanahan gave McKinnon a bit of a break last week by working in Hasty during the second half last week with the 49ers playing with a big lead. McKinnon finished with 8/28 scrimmage while Hasty had 9/37 rushing against the Rams. The Patriots have allowed just one rushing TD and one receiving TD to opposing RBs this season.

Patriots Trends

• The Patriots are not currently allowing fans.
• The Patriots are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
• New England turned the ball over three times last week, and they had three other fumbles that they retained or the game could’ve been much uglier.
• Cam Newton returned to the Patriots last week after a 10-day stay on the COVID-19 list, and Newton showed plenty of rust in his first game back since testing positive for the virus. He completed 17/25 passes for 157 yards (6.3 YPA) with no touchdown passes and two INTs against the Broncos. Cam needed 10/76/1 rushing to salvage his fantasy production. He now has more interceptions (4) than touchdown passes (2) through four games, and he’s topped 165+ passing yards just once. He’s come back to earth as a passer in his last two games playing with one of the league’s worst receiving corps. Kyler Murray (91/1 rushing), Daniel Jones (49/0), and Carson Wentz (37/1) have each had success running it against the 49ers.
• James White has a 26% target share in his two games with Cam, including 8/65 receiving last week against the Broncos. Damien Harris went from 17/100 rushing against the Chiefs to just 6/19 last week against the Broncos. The 49ers are allowing the fewest FPG to RBs (16.5) this season, including just 3.8/29.7/.2 receiving per game and 67.2/.3 rushing per game.
• Julian Edelman is coming off a 2/8 receiving performance, which gives him 12/121 receiving in his four games that weren’t against the Seahawks this season — he posted 8/179 receiving in that game. He’s also yet to find the end zone through five games. Cooper Kupp did leave two TDs on the field against the 49ers last week on his way to just 3/11 receiving.
• N’Keal Harry has topped 40+ receiving yards just once this season. Damiere Byrd at least has 3+ catches in four of his five games after not seeing a target in the season opener.

Brolley’s Bets

New England Patriots -1.5 (Best Bet)

Deebo Samuel (SF) over 46.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2, 4-2), 8:20 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 29.75, Cardinals 26.25
• Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
• Weather: Dome
• Seahawks Injuries to Watch: S Jamal Adams (groin), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee), LB Jordyn Brooks (knee), LT Duane Brown (knee), RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder), LG Mike Iupati (back), DE Benson Mayowa (knee)
• Cardinals Injuries to Watch: WR DeAndre Hopkins (ankle), RT Kelvin Beachum (ankle), DE Jordan Phillips (foot), DE Kylie Fitts (hamstring), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (foot)

Seahawks Trends

• Seattle has the second-highest implied team total of the week.
• The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
• Russell Wilson entered his bye week with the league lead in TD passes (19) and he left his bye week with the league lead in TD passes. He’s topped 21+ FP in every game this season with three performances of 31+ FP. The Cardinals are allowing the eighth-fewest FPG to QBs (17.4) so far, but they haven’t faced a QB that currently ranks inside the top-15 at the position.
• D.K. Metcalf has 4+ catches and 90+ yards in every game this season, and he’s scored five TDs with scores in four of his five contests. Michael Gallup dropped a TD pass last week and Kenny Golladay posted 6/57/1 receiving in this matchup back in Week 3.
• Tyler Lockett had scored 17+ FP with 7+ catches and 65+ yards in each of his first three games, but he’s totaled just 6/83 receiving combined in his last two games. Lockett struggled against the Cardinals last season with just 5/63 receiving in two games. Arizona allowed 7/64 receiving to CeeDee Lamb last week and 8/116/1 against Jamison Crowder in Week 5.
• Greg Olsen has 4+ catches in three of his first five games, but he has just one catch combined in his other two games. The Cardinals have yet to allow more than 12 FP to an opposing TE this season.
• Chris Carson has 65+ scrimmage yards and 3+ catches in every game this season. Ezekiel Elliott posted 80 scrimmage yards against the Cardinals last week, and they’re allowing 153.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season.

Cardinals Trends

• The Cardinals will allow up to 1,200 fans.
• The Cardinals are the only team in the league that’s yet to play over a total this season.
• Arizona is 5-1-1 in its last seven games in this series.
• The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games.
• Kyler Murray completed just 37.5% of his passes last week but he averaged 20.9 yards per completion. He’s now finished as the QB10 or higher in every game this season. The Seahawks are allowing the second-most FPG to QBs (26.1), and Cam Newton (47/2 rushing), Ryan Fitzpatrick (47/1), Dak Prescott (26) each had success scrambling against the Seattle’s defense.
• DeAndre Hopkins fell below 6+ catches for the first time last week, but he still ripped off a long gain late in the game to get to 2/73 receiving. There’s no reason to shy away from him this week as #1 WRs have gone off on the Seahawks all season, including Adam Thielen (9/80/2 receiving), DeVante Parker (10/110), and Amari Cooper (9/86) in the last three weeks.
• Christian Kirk saw a 14% target share last week and he’s hit a 20% share just once this season, but he made his targets count against the Cowboys with two TDs, including an 80-yard bomb. The Seahawks have allowed 12 different individuals to reach 11+ FP in just five games this season.
• Kenyan Drake saw a 67% snap share last week in their blowout victory, but he’s in a tougher spot this week in a potentially negative game script as 3.5-point home underdogs. He has seen two or fewer targets in every game so far. The Seahawks are allowing just 3.7 YPC and they’re allowing fourth-most receptions per game to RBs (7.0) to give Chase Edmonds a chance, who had five catches in consecutive games until the Cardinals played in an extremely positive game script last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)