Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Buffalo Bills (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (3-0, 0-3), 7 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Bills 27.75, Titans 24.75
Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3, 53.5 to 52.5
Weather: 60 degrees, clear, 5 mph
Bills Injuries to Watch: CB Tre’Davious White (back), WR John Brown (knee), RB Zack Moss (foot), LB Matt Milano (pec, out), RG Brian Winters (knee), LG Cody Ford (groin)
Titans Injuries to Watch: LT Taylor Lewan (shoulder), WR A.J. Brown (knee), WR Adam Humphries (COVID-19 list), WR Corey Davis (COVID-19 list), DL Jeffery Simmons (COVID-19 list), CB Kristian Fulton (COVID-19 list)
The Bills, the Saints, and the Raiders were 4-0 toward overs heading into Week 5.
The Bills are a Ryan Fitzpatrick backdoor cover in Week 2 away from being 4-0 ATS
Josh Allen left the field for a few minutes for a non-throwing shoulder injury in the second quarter of their Week 4 victory over the Raiders. He still took every snap for Buffalo as he played the second half with a brace on his left shoulder. Allen failed to reach 300+ passing yards for the first time this season, but he still threw for two touchdowns and he added his third rushing touchdown of the season. Allen is averaging more than 30 FPG through four weeks, and the Titans have allowed three passing TDs in each of their last two games.
Stefon Diggs has finished inside the top-30 at the position in every week this season with 4+ catches in every game. His replacement in Minnesota, Justin Jefferson, posted 7/175/1 receiving against the Titans in their last game two weeks ago.
John Brown has seen just 13 targets the last three weeks, and he managed just 4/42 against the Raiders last week as he played through a calf/knee injury. He did just miss a touchdown last week, which would’ve been his third score in three full games.
Cole Beasley also played through a foot issue last week. Rookie Gabriel Davis is the next receiver up if either Brown and/or Beasley miss this week. Beasley has posted 55+ receiving yards or a touchdown in every game this season.
Devin Singletary once again served as the bell-cow back, handling an 89% snap share in Week 4, which he turned into 18/55/1 rushing and 5/21 receiving on six targets. He’s now tied with Josh Jacobs for the most forced missed tackles. Zack Moss will almost certainly be back this week unless he has a setback. Singletary likely has a small leg up on Moss after the last two weeks, but the Bills will likely go back to their backfield committee. The Titans have allowed 16+ FP to an individual back in every game, including 120+ scrimmage yards and a TD to Dalvin Cook and James Robinson in their last two games
The Titans have incredibly started the season with a perfect 3-0 record without covering a single spread. Tennessee is just the third team to do it since the NFL merger and it hasn’t happened since the Colts did it in 1979.
The Titans are 6-1 toward overs in their last seven home games.
Derrick Henry finally found paydirt In Week 3 and he did it twice to make up for his lost time in the end zone through two weeks. He’s now seen 25+ carries in each game and he’s been targeted a promising eight times but for just 5/26 receiving. Darrell Henderson is the only back to top 50+ rushing yards against the Bills this season, and he posted 20/114/1 rushing in Week 3.
Ryan Tannehill threw for 321 yards and he averaged 8.7 YPA, but he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 13 starts as the Titans starting QB in Week 3. The Bills have allowed 300+ passing yards and two passing touchdowns in three straight games. Tannehill will be without both Corey Davis and Adam Humphries since they’re both on the COVID-19 list. The Bills have allowed 300+ passing yards and multiple TDs to QBs the last three weeks.
A.J. Brown is expected to play for the first time since the season opener after suffering a nasty bone bruise in his knee. He’s now the only healthy WR with Davis and Humphries on the COVID-19 list. Brown gets a fun first matchup back against top CB Tre’Davious White and company. The Bills have faced two #1 perimeter WRs so far, allowing 5/74/1 receiving to Robert Woods and 5/53/1 to DeVante Parker.
Jonnu Smith SZN will continue this week with Davis and Humphries taking seats on the bench after Brown missed the last two games. Jonnu has 4+ catches and 11+ FP in each of his first three games, and Brown will get a touch matchup with White this week. The Bills have allowed 9/88 receiving to Darren Waller (Week 4) and 8/130/1 to Mike Gesicki (Week 2).
Buffalo Bills -3 (Staff Picks Lean)
Devin Singletary (Buf) over 58.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)