Week 5 Sunday Trends and Picks Free Preview


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Week 5 Sunday Trends and Picks Free Preview

If you’re reading this Free Preview, you’re one of our awesome Free or Standard subscribers taking advantage of our FREE WEEK. Below you’ll find analysis on five of this week’s games. To get the full Trends and Picks for this week, and every week, upgrade to Premium! Use promo code BROLLEY10 for an extra 10% off.

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

I’ll add any player prop bets I like to this article on Sunday mornings so check back before kickoff!

Early Afternoon Games

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1, 1-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0, 2-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Eagles 18.75, Steelers 25.75

  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7, 46.5 to 44.5

  • Weather: 70 degrees, 20% chance of rain, 5 mph

  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), WR Alshon Jeffery (Lisfranc/illness), RT Lane Johnson (ankle), S Rodney McLeod (hamstring) CB Avonte Maddox (ankle)

  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: LB T.J. Watt (knee)

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles have the lowest implied team total of the week at 18.75 points.

  • The Eagles have played over the total in five of their last six games.

  • Philly is 6-2 in its last eight games as a road underdog.

  • Miles Sanders has seen at least a 77% snap share in each of his first three games. He mustered just 13/46 rushing and 2/30 receiving against the league’s toughest defense against the RBs. He’ll now face the league’s second-toughest defense against RBs this week as the Steelers have limited bell-cow backs David Johnson (12.6 FP), Melvin Gordon (16.4), and Saquon Barkley (12.6) so far this season.

  • Carson Wentz has gutted out 23.5 FP and 22.4 FP in his last two games thanks to some rushing production — he’s scored rushing TDs in three straight games. The Steelers have yet to allow a 20+ FP performance to a QB this season.

  • Zach Ertz averaged just 2.3 YPR last week with 4/9 receiving on five targets with the Eagles using practice squad players at wide receiver. He’s now averaging 34.8 receiving yards per game and 7.3 YPR this season. The Steelers allowed 4/57/1 receiving to Noah Fant in Week 2 but Ertz isn’t in the same zip code as Fant in terms of athleticism right now.

  • The Eagles could use DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Alshon Jeffery (Lisfranc) back this week after using Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, and John Hightower last week. D-Jax is back to practice early this week, which puts him on track to return. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most FPG to WRs in the early going but Philly WRs are averaging the third-fewest FPG with 25.6.

Steelers Trends

  • The Steelers will allow up to 7,500 fans to attend this week’s game.

  • The Steelers have a 3-0 record against three teams (NYG, Den, Hou) that are a combined 1-11 this season, with the one win coming against the Jets.

  • Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

  • James Conner has posted consecutive 20+ FP performances after getting benched in the season opener against the Giants. He had his best game yet with stud RG David DeCastro back in the lineup for Week 3 as Conner posted 18/109 rushing and 4/40 receiving on five targets against the Texans. Conner played on 66% of the snaps but it should be noted that the Steelers worked fourth-round pick Anthony McFarland into the mix as a change-of-pace option for the first time this season. The Eagles are allowing 125.6 scrimmage yards per game to RBs with four scores this season.

  • Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple TD passes in his first three games back from his elbow surgery. The Eagles are allowing 273.8 passing yards per game with Jared Goff and Joe Burrow each throwing for multiple scores.

  • Diontae Johnson took a big hit to the head on a carry in the second quarter in Week 3 against the Texans, and he never returned to the game. Diontae had 6+ catches in each of his first two games, but he’s likely to run into the shadow coverage of Darius Slay this week. Terry McLaurin is the only receiver he’s primarily faced to cross 10+ FP with 5/61 receiving.

  • Chase Claypool played ahead of James Washington in Week 3 after seeing a team-high 76% of the snap. The rookie is best suited to take over as the X receiver if Johnson is unable to play in the future.

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has three touchdowns but he’s seeing an 18% target share and he’s averaging just 9.4 YPR — he’s never averaged below 12.8 YPR in a season. JuJu will avoid Slay this week and Tyler Boyd (10/125 receiving) and Cooper Kupp (5/81) have each made hay out of the slot.

  • Eric Ebron had his best performance with the Steelers after Johnson left Week 3 early as he posted 5/52/1 receiving on a team-best seven targets against the Texans. Ebron scored on a red-zone fade route from 10 yards away and his aDOT is currently sitting at a juicy 10.4 yards through three games. The Eagles just got crushed by George Kittle (15/183/1 receiving) last week, and they allowed three touchdowns to Tyler Higbee earlier this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Las Vegas Raiders (2-2, 2-2 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 3-1), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Raiders 21.75, Chiefs 33.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 13 to 12, 55.5 to 55
  • Weather: 75 degrees, clear, 10 mph
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: WR Henry Ruggs (hamstring), LT Trent Brown (calf), TE Darren Waller (knee), CB Nevin Lawson (ankle), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (pec), S Lamarcus Joyner (ribs), WR Bryan Edwards (ankle)
  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: None of note.

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders, the Bills, and the Saints are 4-0 toward overs.
  • Josh Jacobs has seen 4+ targets three times this season after doing it just once last season. He’s failed to reach 14+ FP the last three weeks after scoring nearly 36 FP in Week 1 on the strength of three TDs. The Chiefs are allowing 122.3 rushing yards per game, including a 100-yard performance from Damien Harris last week.
  • Derek Carr has thrown for multiple TDs in each of the last three weeks and he topped 300+ yards for the first time last week against the Bills. The Chiefs have yet to allow multiple TD passes in a game, but their offense should push this Raiders offense to throw it more as 12-point road underdogs.
  • The Raiders could get Henry Ruggs back this week off of his hamstring injury, and they could desperately use a lid-lifter right now. Hunter Renfrow posted 11/141/1 receiving on 17 targets the last two weeks with the rookies out of the lineup.
  • Bill Belichick and the Patriots did their best to take Darren Waller away in Week 3, limiting him 2/9 receiving on four targets. He predictably bounced back with a 17.8-point fantasy performance in Week 4. He easily led the Raiders with a 27.2% target share as he finished with 9/88 receiving on 12 targets against the Bills. He posted 6+ catches and 60+ yards in each of his matchups against Kansas City last year.

Chiefs Trends

  • The Chiefs will allow about 16,000 fans to attend this week’s game.
  • Kansas City has the highest implied team total of the week at 33.25 points.
  • Kansas City owns an incredible 28-3 record against its AFC West counterparts over the last five-plus years, which is the best five-year stretch for any team against their division opponents since the NFL realigned divisions in 2002.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in this series. Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 straight up against the Raiders with a 22-point margin of victory in those contests.
  • The Chiefs are 3-1 ATS to start the season but they’re surprisingly 3-1 toward unders.
  • Kansas City is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine home games.
  • Mahomes has thrown for multiple TDs in every game this season, but he now has a pair of 20 FP performances, which is a little underwhelming for his expectations. Josh Allen was the first QB to go for 20+ FP against the Raiders this season with 288/2 passing with a rushing TD.
  • Travis Kelce is once again leading all TEs with 65.7 FP. The Raiders have allowed just 6.35 FPG to TEs so far, but the only fantasy viable TE they’ve faced has been Jared Cook, who scored a TD. Kelce posted 90+ yards and 5+ catches in both of his games against the Raiders last week.
  • Tyreek Hill has scored a touchdown in every game to start the year, and he’s right back to averaging about five catches and 70 yards per game like he did last season. Stefon Diggs posted 6/115 receiving in this matchup last week. Hill disappointed with 5/55 receiving on eight targets in his only game in this matchup last season.
  • Sammy Watkins has 4+ catches and 7+ targets in three of four games this season. He failed to catch a pass on three targets against the Raiders in Week 13 last season.
  • Mecole Hardman jumped ahead of Demarcus Robinson in snap share last week (46% to 41%), and he has 8/108/2 receiving on 10 targets the last two weeks.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played on 68% of the snaps and he’s run the third-most routes of all RBs this season. He’s been a slight disappointment after posting 138/1 rushing against the Texans in the season opener, but he’s run into some tough run Ds (LAC/Bal/NE). He gets a great bounce-back spot this week against a Raiders defense that’s giving up the most FPG to RBs (38.05). Five different RBs have reached 16+ FP against them and three RBs (CMC/Kamara/Burkhead) have reached 28+ FP.

Brolley’s Bets

Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Los Angeles Rams (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Washington Football Team (1-3, 2-2), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Rams 27, Football Team 19.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 7.5, 45 to 46.5
  • Weather: 70 degrees, 50% chance of rain, 5 mph
  • Rams Injuries to Watch: LB Micah Kiser (groin), LB Kenny Young (knee), CB Troy Hill (ankle)
  • Washington Injuries to Watch: WR Terry McLaurin (thigh), DE Chase Young (groin), WR Steven Sims (toe), WR Dontrelle Inman (foot), RG Wes Schweitzer (elbow)

Rams Trends

  • The Rams have played over the total in four straight road games
  • Los Angeles is 5-2 toward overs in its last seven games.
  • Jared Goff headed into last week with a league-best 9.6 YPA, but he managed just a 6.3 YPA average against the Giants as he threw for 200 yards and one touchdown. Washington has allowed multiple passing TDs in three of its first four games, but Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson combined for 349 passing yards the last two weeks. Goff had been pressured on 27.3% of his dropbacks through the first three weeks before the Giants pressured him 35.3% of the time last week. The Football Team would love to get Chase Young (groin) back this week.
  • Cooper Kupp is averaging 7.0 targets per game while Robert Woods is seeing 6.5 targets per game. Kupp has 19/257/2 receiving over the last three weeks while Woods has 13/123/1 receiving in that same span. The Football Team is allowing the second-fewest FPG to WRs (28.03) and DeAndre Hopkins is the only WR who has topped 13+ FP against Washington.
  • Tyler Higbee scored 28.4 FP against the Eagles in Week 2 on the strength of three TDs. He has a combined 20.1 FP in his other three games on 8/101 receiving with a two-point conversion. The Football Team has allowed five TDs to TEs this season, including two to Mark Andrews last week.
  • Malcolm Brown got the hot hand in this backfield last week as Sean McVay gave him 15 opportunities while Darrell Henderson saw nine. It looks like Cam Akers will throw his hat back in the ring this week in this backfield. Baltimore’s three-headed rushing attack combined 33/118/1 rushing (3.6 YPC) against the Football Team last week.

Washington Trends

  • The Football Team won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • Washington has the second-lowest implied team total of the week at 19.5 points.
  • Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The Football Team is 4-0 toward overs in their last four home games, and they’re 6-1 toward overs in their last seven games.
  • The Football Team has lost three straight games by two touchdowns after surprising the Eagles in the season opener. Dwayne Haskins needed major garbage-time production last week to average 7.0 YPA or better and to complete 60% of his passes or better for the first time this season. Ron Rivera will turn to his old Panthers QB Kyle Allen to try to give this offense a spark. The Rams allowed four TD passes to Josh Allen in Week 3 but they’ve allowed just one passing TD in their other three games.
  • Terry McLaurin gave us a scare last week when he showed up on the team’s injury report because of a late-week thigh injury, which forced him to miss the final practice of the week. McLaurin alleviated his owners’ fears by posting a career-best 10 catches for 118 yards against the Ravens in Week 4, which was his second 100-yard game of the season. He’s now seen a 20% target share in every game. He’ll draw the attention of Jalen Ramsey and company this week. Stefon Diggs (4/49/1 receiving) and Amari Cooper (10/81) each survived this matchup but they had much better QB play.
  • Antonio Gibson is improving every week and it’s reflected in his rising fantasy production in the first four weeks of the season (6.4<12.2<14.0<22.8). He had his best game to date against a stout Ravens defense as he finished with 13/46/1 rushing and 4/82 receiving on five targets.
  • J.D. McKissic still saw a higher snap share (55% to 44%), but OC Scott Turner is putting more on Gibson’s plate as a receiver in recent weeks with eight targets the last two weeks — he saw just four targets in the first two games. He also saw three of the four goal-line carries with a touchdown in Week 4 after seeing just 5-of-13 goal-line carries (38%) in the first three weeks of the season. Gibson has run off touchdowns in three straight games. The Rams are allowing 150.8 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs so far.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team +7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Late Afternoon Games

Miami Dolphins (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2, 2-2), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 21.25, 49ers 30.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 8.5 to 9, 49.5 to 51.5
  • Weather: 70 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: WR DeVante Parker (ankle), CB Byron Jones (groin), LT Austin Jackson (foot), DE Shaw Lawson (shoulder), TE Durham Smythe (knee)
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), RB Raheem Mostert (knee), CB Richard Sherman (calf, out), DE Ziggy Ansah (biceps), LB Dre Greenlaw (quad), CB Emmanuel Moseley (concussion), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), CB K’Waun Williams (knee), WR Deebo Samuel (illness)

Dolphins Trends

  • The Chargers just named Justin Herbert the full-time starter for the Chargers this week, and we’re to the point in the season when Brian Flores is announcing his starter in the middle of the week. It won’t be long until Tua Tagovailoa is starting games and it’s not out of the question that he makes an appearance in-game this week. Fitz has been excellent for fantasy once again, posting 23+ FP in his last three games. The 49ers have given up two rushing TDs to QBs and 37+ rushing yards in three of their four games while Fitz has 85/2 rushing the last two weeks.
  • DeVante Parker suffered an ankle injury early last week, but he gutted through the injury to post 10/112 receiving on 12 targets (27% share). The 49ers are allowing ninth-fewest FPG to the position (31.58) but they’ve only been tested by one true #1 WR in DeAndre Hopkins, who posted 14/151 receiving on 16 targets.
  • Mike Gesicki has a pair of games with just a 15-yard catch and three targets for the last two weeks. He’s topped 10+ FP just once this season, and the 49ers are allowing just 6.63 FPG to TEs so far this season. Zach Ertz had just 4/9 receiving last week.
  • Myles Gaskin continues to be a steady PPR option with 40+ rushing yards, 22+ receiving yards, and 3+ catches in every game. He’s yet to score a touchdown with Jordan Howard vulturing goal-line looks. No back has reached 15+ FP against the 49ers this season, and they’re allowing a league-low 14.03 FPG.

49ers Trends

  • The 49ers won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo is trending toward playing for the first time since injuring his ankle in Week 2. He picked a soft spot to return against a Dolphins defense that’s allowing the fourth-most FPG to QBs (23.3), including 301.3 passing yards per game.
  • George Kittle appears to be just fine coming off his knee injury in Week 2. He torched the Eagles by catching all 15 of his targets for 183 yards and a touchdown last week. The Dolphins have faced little competition at tight end this season with their toughest matchup coming against Greg Olsen last week, who posted 5/35 receiving.
  • San Francisco WRs are averaging a league-worst 22.4 FPG with just 13.2 targets per game, but they’re at least getting back to full strength. Deebo Samuel saw 25 snaps and ran 17 routes in his debut last week, which will surely go up this week after the team cut Mohamed Sanu this week after Samuel survived his first game back. Brandon Aiyuk led the 49ers WRs by playing 64 snaps and running 50 routes last week. The Dolphins are giving up the seventh-most FPG to WRs (41.18)
  • Jerick McKinnon saw a 92% snap share and he handled 84% of the RB touches in a competitive game last week. It looks like he’ll be back in a timeshare this week with Raheem Mostert (knee) trending toward returning to the lineup. McKinnon has scored in every game this season while Mostert has 18+ FP and TDs in each of his two games this season. The Dolphins have allowed 100+ scrimmage yards and two TDs to James Robinson and Chis Carson in consecutive weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins +9.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Indianapolis Colts (3-1, 3-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (3-1, 2-2), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Colts 24, Browns 22.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: PK to 3 to 1.5, 47.5 to 46.5
  • Weather: 65 degrees, overcast, 10 mph
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: LB Darius Leonard (groin), LB Bobby Okereke (thumb), LB Anthony Walker (ankle), LT Anthony Castonzo (ribs),
  • Browns Injuries to Watch: RB Kareem Hunt (groin), WR Odell Beckham (toe), DT Larry Ogunjobi (abdomen), DT Sheldon Richardson (thigh), C JC Tretter (knee), CB Greedy Williams (shoulder), S Karl Joseph (hamstring), DE Adrian Clayborn (hip)

Colts Trends

  • The Colts are 5-2 towards unders in their last seven games.
  • Indy is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
  • Jonathan Taylor has been trending in the wrong direction with Jordan Wilkins playing a bigger factor than anticipated. The rookie has played on 51% of the snaps the last three weeks since Marlon Mack (Achilles) went down for the season. He’s also posted just 4/23 receiving the last three weeks after hanging 6/67 in the season opener. The Browns are allowing just 67.0 rushing yards per game, and Ezekiel Elliott became the first back to top 15+ FP against them this season.
  • Philip Rivers hasn’t reached 17+ FP in a game this season as he’s thrown just one TD in every game. The Browns have allowed multiple TD passes in every game and 25+ FP against starting QBs in Week 5 — they allowed just 13.2 FP to Dwayne Haskins in Week 3.
  • Indy WRs are averaging the second-fewest FPG with 24.7 and their #1 WR T.Y. Hilton is averaging just 7.3 FPG. Hilton has yet to reach 10+ FP in a game this season. He’s yet to reach 60+ receiving yards in a game this season while the Browns have allowed 60+ yards to six different WRs in four weeks.
  • Zach Pascal has out-targeted Hilton in each of the last two weeks since being elevated to the #2 WR spot, but he’s produced just 5/92 receiving on 12 targets.
  • The Colts are rolling with a three-headed TE approach after Trey Burton led the group with 19 routes in his first game back, ahead of Jack Doyle (15) and Mo Alie-Cox (8). The Browns have allowed double-digit FP to four different TEs this season, and they’re allowing the fourth-most FPG to the position (19.88) this season.

Browns Trends

  • The Browns are allowed to have up to 12,000 fans in attendance this week.
  • The Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Cleveland is 4-1 towards overs in its last five games.
  • The Browns are averaging a league-best 39.3 points per game the last three weeks while the Colts are holding opponents to a league-low 14 points per game.
  • Kareem Hunt is going to be the man in this backfield with Nick Chubb landing on the IR with his knee injury. Hunt is dealing with his own groin injury, but he still registered his fifth touchdown in the last three weeks against the Cowboys last week. D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard will also mix in behind him. The Colts are allowing just 16.58 FPG to RBs (3rd-fewest) with Dalvin Cook being the only back to find the end zone and to score more than 11+ FP.
  • Baker Mayfield has thrown for multiple TDs in each of the last two weeks, but he’s yet to reach 220 passing yards in a game. He managed just 15.2 FPG last week despite the Browns scoring 49 points against the Cowboys. The Colts have allowed just 24.1 FPG the last three weeks combined to Cousins/Darnold/Foles.
  • Odell Beckham accounted for three TDs to finish as the WR1 last week, and he’s averaging 7.5 targets per game (26% target share). Allen Robinson needed garbage-time production, but he posted 7/101/1 receiving against the Colts last week.
  • Jarvis Landry is seeing just 4.8 targets per game (16% target share) in the early going and the only TD he has accounted for came on a pass to OBJ. He hasn’t reached 10+ FP in receiving production since he had 5/61 receiving in Week 1. Anthony Miller had just 3/16 receiving out of the slot against the Colts last week.
  • Austin Hooper has now seen more than an 18% target share in each of Cleveland’s last three games. However, David Njoku will be re-joining the lineup this week to give the Browns a three-man crew at TE with Harrison Bryant also involved.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns +2.5/+105 ML (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.