Week 4 TNF Trends and Picks

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Week 4 TNF Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos (0-3, 2-1 ATS) at New York Jets (0-3, 0-3), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Broncos 20, Jets 20

  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to pick-em,

  • Weather: 62 degrees, clear, 5 mph

  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: DT Jurrell Casey (biceps, IR), RB Phillip Lindsay (foot), QB Drew Lock (shoulder, out), RT Elijah Wilkinson (knee, IR), OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (quad, out), CB Davontae Harris (foot),

  • Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Jamison Crowder (groin), WR Breshad Perriman (ankle, out), LT Mekhi Becton (shoulder), WR Chris Hogan (ribs), S Ashtyn Davis (groin, doubtful)

Broncos Trends

  • Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.

  • The Broncos are 8-2 toward unders in their last 10 games as a favorite, including a 4-0 run in their last four games as a road favorite.

  • Mark Rypien’s nephew Brett Rypien will get his first NFL start after playing the final series last week. He completed his first eight passes in the blowout loss before throwing an interception.

  • Noah Fant finished with a team-best 10 targets (26% target share) for 5/46 receiving against the Buccaneers last week. The Jets have allowed 10/100/3 receiving to Jordan Reed and Mo Alie-Cox the last two weeks.

  • Jerry Jeudy saw a 24% share last week and he’s now seen at least seven targets in each game. He’s run 84% of his routes from the slot where he’ll see Brian Poole this week, who has allowed 12/114 receiving in 73 coverage snaps.

  • K.J. Hamler started on the perimeter across from Tim Patrick and he saw a team-high 92% snap share but he finished fourth with a 13% target share last week.

  • With Phillip Lindsay (foot) out of the lineup, Melvin Gordon has posted just 27/96 rushing (3.6) in tough matchups against the Broncos and the Bucs the last two weeks. The Jets are giving up the 4.6 YPC and the fifth-most FPG to RBs (30.7) through four weeks.

Jets Trends

  • The Jets are the only team to lose by double-digits in every game to start the year. They’ve failed to cover spreads by 10.3 points per game.

  • The Jets are 5-1 toward unders in their last six games.

  • New York is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.

  • The Jets are averaging the fewest points per game (12.3) and the second-fewest yards per play (4.5).

  • New York is the only team that’s yet to run a play with a lead this season.

  • Sam Darnold has topped out at 12.2 FP in Week 1 against the Bills and he’s yet to throw for multiple TD passes. The Broncos have allowed 19+ FP and multiple TD passes to QBs in every game.

  • The Jets backfield in Week 3: Frank Gore: 26 snaps, 16 touches, and 62 scrimmage yards; La’Mical Perine: 21 snaps, 9 touches, and 23 scrimmage yards; Kalen Ballage: 19 snaps, 7 touches, and 44 scrimmage yards.

  • Braxton Berrios will be the top option once again this week. He’s seen a team-best 21% target share for 10/123/2 receiving the last two weeks. Scotty Miller posted 2/73 receiving and Chris Godwin had 5/64/1 receiving out of the slot against the Broncos last week.

  • Chris Herndon ran a season-best 24 routes last week, which he turned into just 3/21 receiving on five targets. Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard combined for 9/97 receiving on 11 targets last week against the Broncos.

Brolley’s Bets

Denver Broncos pick-em (Staff Picks lean)

K.J. Hamler over 32.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.