Week 4 Power Ratings


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Week 4 Power Ratings

My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.

I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!

RankTeamPower RatingRecord (ATS)Ratings ChangeSuper Bowl LV Odds
1.Kansas City Chiefs8.53-0 (2-1)+1+400
2.Baltimore Ravens7.52-1 (2-1)-.5+650
3.Seattle Seahawks4.53-0 (3-0)+.5+1000
4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers4.52-1 (2-1)+1400
5.Green Bay Packers43-0 (3-0)+1+1400
6.New Orleans Saints41-2 (1-2)-1+1400
7.Pittsburgh Steelers43-0 (2-1)+.5+1600
8.Buffalo Bills43-0 (2-1)+.5+1700
9.New England Patriots3.52-1 (2-1)+1+2000
10.Los Angeles Rams2.52-1 (2-1)+.5+2500
11.Dallas Cowboys2.51-2 (0-3)-.5+1800
12.Tennessee Titans2.53-0 (0-3)+2200
13.Indianapolis Colts2.52-1 (2-1)+.5+2500
14.San Francisco 49ers22-1 (2-1)+.5+1600
15.Cleveland Browns22-1 (1-2)+.5+4000
16.Arizona Cardinals1.52-1 (2-1)+3000
17.Houston Texans.50-3 (0-3)+10000
18.Chicago Bears.53-0 (2-1)+3300
19.Las Vegas Raiders02-1 (2-1)+5000
20.Philadelphia Eagles00-3 (0-3)-.1+4000
21.Detroit Lions-.51-2 (1-2)+1+8000
22.Los Angeles Chargers-.51-2 (2-1)-.5+6600
23.Atlanta Falcons-.50-3 (1-2)-.5+10000
24.Minnesota Vikings-10-3 (1-2)+6600
25.Cincinnati Bengals-20-2-1 (2-1)+25000
26.Miami Dolphins-21-2 (2-1)+.5+17500
27.Carolina Panthers-31-2 (1-2)+.5+20000
28.Washington-31-2 (1-2)+17500
29.Jacksonville Jaguars-31-2 (2-1)-.5+17500
30.Denver Broncos-3.50-3 (2-1)-1+12500
31.New York Giants-50-2 (1-2)-2+20000
32.New York Jets-70-3 (0-3)-1.5+30000

Week 4 Risers

Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 23.

Chiefs (7.5 to 8.5) — I guess the Chiefs are going to be just fine after their flat performance against the Chargers in Week 2. Patrick Mahomes threw for five touchdowns and their defense also stepped up, holding Lamar Jackson to under 100 passing yards while averaging 3.5 YPA.

Seahawks (4 to 4.5) — The Seahawks are unbeaten against the spread and they’ve played over the total in every game. Russell Wilson has the most touchdown passes through the first three weeks of the season in NFL history with 14.

Packers (3 to 4) — The Packers created a logjam at the top of the Power Ratings in the NFC with their victory over the Saints. Aaron Rodgers has turned back the clocks as he’s averaging 8.4 YPA with nine touchdown passes and no INTs.

Steelers (3.5 to 4) — The Steelers defense has been slightly off through the 10 quarters of the season, but they delivered in the clutch in Week 3. They shutout the Texans in the final 30 minutes and the unit finished with five sacks to close out the victory.

Bills (3.5 to 4) — The Bills raced out to a 28-3 lead against the Rams in Week 3 before allowing 29 straight points. Buffalo responded with an 11-play drive in the final minutes of the game to pull out the victory, which also gave Josh Allen his 10th passing TD of the season.

Patriots (2.5 to 3.5) — Cam Newton had his first down performance of the season as he averaged 5.8 YPA and he had a season-low 27 rushing yards…and New England still beat the Raiders by 16 points in Week 3.

Los Angeles Rams (2 to 2.5) — I’m giving the Rams a slight bump up in my ratings despite losing outright and against the spread to the Bills last week. Los Angeles showed plenty of resolve to score 29 straight points and to nearly steal the road victory in a brutal spot with consecutive East Coast road games.

Colts (2 to 2.5) — The Colts laid an egg against the Jaguars in the season opener, but they’ve responded with two resounding victories over lesser opponents in the Vikings and the Jets. I’m still not completely sure how good the Colts are, but we should get a better idea in a matchup with the Bears this week.

Browns (1.5 to 2) — The Browns have taken care of business the last two weeks against weak opponents (Cincy and Washington) after getting humbled by the Ravens in the season opener. We’ll see how they play this week as they step back up in class against the Cowboys. Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, and Jarvis Landry will have to make some plays if they’re going to win this week.

49ers (1.5 to 2) — San Francisco’s junior varsity team dominated the two New York teams 67-22 over the last two weeks. Kyle Shanahan’s squad will face another beleaguered team this week in the Eagles, and he should get some reinforcements back this week in the form of George Kittle.

Lions (-1.5 to -.5) — Kenny Golladay saw his first action of the season in Week 3, and he immediately provided a spark for this Lions offense with 6/57/1 receiving. Third overall pick Jeff Okudah also flashed on defense with a key interception and a deep return.

Dolphins (-2.5 to -2) — The Dolphins are starting to look a little frisky like they were at the end of last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick and company have strung together six strong quarters in a row dating back to Week 2 when they nearly knocked off the Bills.

Panthers (-3.5 to -3) — The Panthers ended a 10-game losing streak with their victory over the Chargers as 6.5-point road underdogs. I adjusted the Panthers too low after they lost Christian McCaffrey to a high-ankle sprain as Mike Davis proved to be a capable replacement with 91 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.

Week 4 Fallers

Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Sept. 23.

Ravens (8 to 7.5) — Lamar Jackson and the Ravens came up small in a statement victory by the Chiefs in Week 3. The reigning Super Bowl MVP averaged just 3.5 YPA and he finished with under 100 passing yards while their dominant defense allowed five TD passes to Patrick Mahomes and company.

Saints (5 to 4) — The Saints fell out of my top spot in the NFC, which has created a logjam at the top with the Buccaneers, the Seahawks, and the Packers. New Orleans’ early-season woes on defense have reared their ugly head once again in 2020, but this unit should improve and the offense could get Michael Thomas back this week.

Cowboys (3 to 2.5) — The Cowboys offense can hang with any other offense in the league. The Cowboys defense? That’s a completely different matter. Russell Wilson just torched them for five touchdown passes and it easily could’ve been six scores if D.K. Metcalf didn’t lose his mind before getting into the end zone.

Falcons (0 to -.5) — I’ve held the Falcons pretty steady in my rankings since their offense and their defense has played pretty much exactly how I expected them to play entering the season. However, I have to knock them down a peg now after they blew two massive leads late in the fourth quarter in consecutive weeks. The Falcons are winless and coming off two demoralizing losses playing under a lame-duck head coach so things could head south quickly here.

Eagles (1 to 0) — I’ve been hesitant to crash the Eagles down my rankings as I did with the Vikings earlier in the season because I still think this roster is talented enough to be a playoff contender. Carson Wentz has been the biggest problem and his HC Doug Pederson clearly doesn’t trust him or his team after playing for a tie late in Week 3.

Los Angeles Chargers (0 to -.5) — Philip Rivers is gone but the Chargers are back to their losing ways with their second one-loss game of the season. Los Angeles is now a pathetic 2-11 in one-score games since the start of 2019.

Jaguars (-2.5 to -3) — I bought into the Minshew Mania a little too much after two weeks and adjusted the Jaguars too high in my last Power Ratings last week. D.J. Chark’s impact on this offense can’t be understated after watching Chris Conley make three critical errors that cost the Jaguars any chance of winning against the Dolphins.

Broncos (-2.5 to -3.5) — The Broncos’ season is quickly spiraling out of control after losing another top defender in Jurrell Casey (biceps). Their quarterback situation is abysmal right now with Drew Lock (shoulder) out of the lineup as they’ll be counting on Mark Rypien’s nephew to beat the worst team in football on Thursday night.

New York Giants (-3 to -5) — The Giants are the best team in New York, but they’re not better than any other team in the league at this point. Daniel Jones had another two turnovers last week against the 49ers’ JV squad, but he’s in a tough spot without Saquon Barkley (ACL) and Sterling Shepard.

New York Jets (-5.5 to -7) — Thursday night will hopefully be the last time Adam Gase is in charge of any team or any offense at the NFL level.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.