Week 3 TNF Trends and Picks


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Week 3 TNF Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1, 2-0), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 22.25 Jaguars 25.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3, 45 to 47.5

  • Weather: 77 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph

  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: CB Byron Jones (groin)

  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR D.J. Chark (chest), C Brandon Linder (knee), K Josh Lambo (hip, IR)

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven September contests.

  • Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four Thursday night games.

  • The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.

  • Miami has played over the total in four of its last five games.

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick could use a victory this week to keep the Dolphins from making the switch to Tua Tagovailoa with 10 days before Miami’s next game in Week 4 against Seattle. Fitz had the magic working late against the Bills last week, but he couldn’t quite pull off the upset as he finished with 328/2 passing and 24.3 FP. The Jaguars allowed four TD passes to Ryan Tannehill last week.

  • DeVante Parker and Preston Williams get much easier matchups this week after going against the Bills and the Patriots the last two weeks. Parker still managed 5/53/1 receiving while Williams has caught just 25% of his passes for 3/67 receiving.

  • Mike Gesicki tormented the Bills defense with 8/129/1 receiving on 11 targets last week, which included an eight-yard touchdown catch with top CB Tre’Davious White in coverage. Gesicki has run a position-best 79.7% of his routes from the slot through the first two weeks of the season. He gets a matchup against a Jaguars defense that just allowed 4/84/2 receiving to Jonnu Smith.

  • Myles Gaskin has a 64% snap share compared to Jordan Howard’s 13% share and Matt Breida’s 22% share. Gaskin has 10 catches so far with 148 scrimmage yards through two games. Derrick Henry didn’t have a catch against the Jags last week but Colts RBs posted 17/142/1 receiving against them in Week 1 playing from behind.

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five September contests.

  • Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

  • The Jaguars have a four-game ATS winning streak on Thursday nights.

  • The Dolphins are giving up by far the most YPA at 10.2.

  • Gardner Minshew has thrown for three TDs in each game this year, which has helped him climb above 20+ FP in both games. Josh Allen set single-game career highs in passing yards (417), touchdown passes (four), and passer rating (147.0) against the Dolphins last week.

  • D.J. Chark has seen just a 12% target share through two games, and he’s been saved by catching all seven of his passes. Miami will be without top CB Bryon Jones this week after he suffered a groin injury last week.

  • Laviska Shenault has seven carries and six receptions so far while Keelan Cole has 11/105/2 receiving on a team-best 20% target share through two games.

  • The Dolphins spent a lot of money and a lot of draft capital to improve their defense from last season but the results aren’t there through the first two games of the season after Josh Allen torched them for 400+ yards and four TDs. Rookie Noah Igbinoghene has allowed 9/163/2 receiving and Xavien Howard has given up 6/87/1 receiving through two games.

  • James Robinson has handled 32-of-34 carries (94.1%) for the Jags so far and he turned 17 touches into 120/1 scrimmage last week. The Dolphins have allowed just one RB TD so far, but they are giving up 4.8 YPC to RBs so far.

Brolley’s Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (Best Bet)

Myles Gaskin over 16.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.