Week 3 MNF Trends & Picks


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Week 3 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0, 2-0), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 25.75, Ravens 29.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 3 to 3.5, 53.5 to 55

  • Weather: 73 degrees, partly cloudy, 5-10 mph

  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: WR Sammy Watkins (concussion), CB Charvarius Ward (hand)

  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: CB Tavon Young (knee, out)

Chiefs Trends

  • The Chiefs failed to cover the spread last week for the first time in 11 games — they were on a 9-0-1 run.

  • Kansas City is 4-0-1 in its last five Monday night games.

  • The Chiefs are 11-2 ATS in its last 13 September contests.

  • Kansas City has played under the total in four straight road games.

  • Patrick Mahomes is off to a slow start for his lofty standards and he’s still averaging 24.0 FPG. He’s averaging just 6.5 YPA but he got it going late last week, which he’s looking to carry into this week. Mahomes is averaging 375.5 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns in his last two meetings with the Ravens.

  • Travis Kelce has scored 10+ FP in 18-of-21 games since 2019 (playoffs included). Kelce has scored a touchdown in his first two games after scoring just twice last season. He has a combined 14/166/1 receiving on 17 targets in two games against the Ravens with Mahomes at QB.

  • Tyreek Hill has 15+ FP in his first two games this season. Brandin Cooks shook loose a couple of times last week against the Ravens for 5/95 receiving.

  • Sammy Watkins left Week 2 early and he never returned after he took a big hit to the head in Kansas City’s victory over the Chargers. Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson would see bumps in playing time and targets if Watkins is unable to play.

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire caught six passes on eight targets in Week 2 after failing to catch either of his targets in Week 1. He needed the passing game production as he averaged 3.8 YPC on 10 carries last week. The Ravens limited David Johnson to 50 scrimmage yards on 13 touches last week.

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens have won 12 straight regular-season games and they’re 10-2 ATS in that span.

  • Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Monday night games.

  • The Ravens are 4-1 to the under in their last five games.

  • Lamar Jackson (23 years old) and Patrick Mahomes (25) are the last two MVPs, and Monday’s showdown will be the first time that two former MVPs age 25 or younger will square off.

  • Lamar is averaging 49.5 rushing yards per game after averaging 80.4 rushing yards per game last season. The Ravens could unleash him a bit more in an important game for AFC seeding as the Chiefs have allowed rushing TDs to Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson to start the year.

  • Mark Andrews posted a disappointing 1/29 receiving on three targets last week after his monster Week 1 performance. Lamar should need him a little more this week in what should be a competitive game throughout this week. He posted just 3/15 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last season.

  • Hollywood Brown has caught five passes on six targets in each of his first two games. He averaged just 8.4 YPR last week after averaging 20.2 YPR in the season opener. Will Fuller posted 8/112 receiving against the Chiefs on 10 targets in the season opener.

  • Ravens backfield snaps through two games: Mark Ingram (48), J.K. Dobbins (43), and Gus Edwards (35). The Chiefs have allowed just one touchdown to RBs so far this season, but they’re allowing 192.0 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backs, including 124.0 rushing yards per game.

Brolley’s Bets

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Marquise Brown (Bal) over 51.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.