My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||9||11-1 (6-6)||-.5||+210|
|2.||New Orleans Saints||7||10-2 (7-5)||+.5||+500|
|3.||Green Bay Packers||6||9-3 (8-4)||+.5||+800|
|4.||Pittsburgh Steelers||5.5||11-1 (8-4)||-1.5||+800|
|5.||Los Angeles Rams||5.5||8-4 (7-5)||+.5||+1200|
|6.||Seattle Seahawks||5||8-4 (6-6)||-1||+1500|
|7.||Buffalo Bills||5||9-3 (7-5)||+1||+1700|
|8.||Baltimore Ravens||5||7-5 (6-6)||+1||+2200|
|9.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5||7-5 (6-6)||—||+1700|
|10.||Indianapolis Colts||3.5||8-4 (7-5)||—||+3000|
|11.||Cleveland Browns||3||9-3 (5-7)||+1||+3000|
|12.||Tennessee Titans||3||8-4 (5-7)||-.5||+3000|
|13.||Miami Dolphins||2.5||8-4 (9-3)||—||+6600|
|14.||Minnesota Vikings||1.5||6-6 (6-6)||—||+6600|
|15.||San Francisco 49ers||1.5||5-7 (5-7)||—||+10000|
|16.||Arizona Cardinals||1||6-6 (5-7)||-1||+6000|
|17.||Las Vegas Raiders||1||7-5 (7-5)||-1||+7000|
|18.||Atlanta Falcons||.5||4-8 (5-7)||—||+50000|
|19.||New England Patriots||0||6-6 (6-6)||+1||+12500|
|20.||Carolina Panthers||-.5||4-8 (7-5)||—||+50000|
|21.||New York Giants||-1||5-7 (8-4)||+2.5||+7000|
|23.||Houston Texans||-1||4-8 (4-8)||+.5||+50000|
|24.||Denver Broncos||-2.5||4-8 (7-5)||+.5||+50000|
|25.||Los Angeles Chargers||-3||3-9 (5-7)||-2||Eliminated|
|26.||Philadelphia Eagles||-3||3-8-1 (4-8)||-1||+17500|
|27.||Detroit Lions||-3||5-7 (5-7)||+.5||+32500|
|28.||Chicago Bears||-3.5||5-7 (5-7)||-1||+27500|
|29.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-5.5||1-11 (6-6)||+.5||Eliminated|
|30.||Dallas Cowboys||-6||3-9 (2-10)||-1||+32500|
|31.||New York Jets||-7.5||0-12 (3-9)||+.5||Eliminated|
|32.||Cincinnati Bengals||-8.5||2-9-1 (7-5)||-1.5||Eliminated|
Week 14 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 3.
New Orleans Saints (6.5 to 7) — The Saints won their ninth consecutive game after a 1-2 start to the season and they became the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth. New Orleans has won and covered eight straight games without Drew Brees in the lineup over the last two seasons.
Green Bay Packers (5.5 to 6) — The Packers have covered consecutive home games after reaching 30+ points for the ninth time in 12 tries last week. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for three TDs in six of his last seven games.
Los Angeles Rams (5 to 5.5) — The Rams have outright wins and covers in three of their last four games after limiting Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to 3.7 yards per play last week. Rookie Cam Akers continues to trend upward, which could potentially give this offense another dimension as we head into the final four weeks of the season.
Buffalo Bills (4 to 5) — The sharp betting money went against the Bills last week, driving them from three-point favorites to two-point underdogs, but the money clearly went on the wrong team. The Bills have covered four straight games after a four-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 5-8.
Baltimore Ravens (4 to 5) — The Ravens have covered consecutive spreads after a 2-6 ATS dry spell in Weeks 3-11. Baltimore didn’t need Mark Andrews and Willie Snead against the lowly Cowboys as their running game racked up 294/2 rushing on a 7.9 YPC average with Lamar Jackson back at the trigger.
Cleveland Browns (2 to 3) — The Browns had the league’s most impressive victory last week as they hung 38 points on the Titans in the first half as four-point road underdogs. Clevleand still has a fraudulent whiff to them as their minus-15 point differential is the worst for a team that has nine or more victories in their first 12 games in NFL history.
New England Patriots (-1 to 0) — The Patriots offense continues to play miserable after averaging a pathetic 3.6 yards per play, but it didn’t matter in their 45-0 shutout victory over the Chargers because of their three special teams touchdowns.
Houston Texans (-1.5 to -1) — I downgraded the Texans a little too much after they lost Will Fuller and Bradley Roby to suspensions. Deshaun Watson had the Texans in a position to win outright and to cover against the Colts last week before C Nick Martin dribbled a snap back to Watson at the two-yard line.
Washington Football Team (-2.5 to -1.5) — The NFC East title race is starting to heat up with Washington and New York trending upward. The Football Team ended Pittsburgh’s dream of a perfect season with a stunning 23-17 victory as six-point road underdogs after erasing a 14-point deficit.
New York Giants (-3.5 to -1) — I don’t regret docking the Giants two points last week based on what I saw from Colt McCoy and this Giants offense last week, but New York’s defense has been the key to their success all season long. It took the Seahawks nearly 54 minutes to find the end zone last week as this potent offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play against the Giants. I moved the Giants back up by two points since it looks like Daniel Jones could be back this week.
Denver Broncos (-3 to -2.5) — I worried last week in this space that the Broncos could show a little quit after a sequence of events that led to a practice squad WR playing quarterback for them against the Saints. Denver showed no such quit in a spirited 22-16 loss to the Chiefs in which they held Patrick Mahomes and company to five field goals with just one TD.
Detroit Lions (-3.5 to -3) — Mitch Trubisky did his part to gift wrap a victory to the Lions last week, but Detroit did show some fight for the first time in a while with Darrell Bevell taking over as the interim head coach. Matthew Stafford threw for 402 yards and he averaged 9.6 YPA against one of the league’s better defenses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5 to 5) — Mike Glennon has the Jaguars feeling frisky the last two weeks. They’ve lost their last two games to the Browns and the Vikings by a combined five points despite being a combined 18-point underdogs in those games.
New York Jets (-8 to -7.5) — The Jets are no longer the worst team in the league after another spirited effort against the Raiders last week and with the Bengals plummeting to new lows without Joe Burrow. Jets fans will forever love Gregg Williams’ decision to blitz the house on Derek Carr in the final seconds of Week 13 to preserve their hopes of drafting Trevor Lawrence.
Week 14 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 3.
Kansas City Chiefs (9.5 to 9) — The Chiefs have failed to cover in four straight games, but they’ve still won each of those games in one-score affairs. Kansas City churned out 447 total yards and they averaged 7.1 yards per play, but they settled for five field goals, which left the door ajar for the Broncos in the final minute.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7 to 5.5) — The Steelers were arguably the worst 11-0 team in NFL history before the Football Team ended their perfect season in Week 13. The Steelers have absolutely no running game as they’ve failed to reach 70 rushing yards in six of their last seven games after averaging 136.8 rushing yards per game in their first five games.
Seattle Seahawks (6 to 5) — It took the Seahawks nearly 54 minutes to find the end zone last week as this potent offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play against the Giants. The Seahawks have failed to cover in four of their last five games, and they haven’t reached 30+ points in four straight games after doing it in seven of their first eight games.
Tennessee Titans (3.5 to 3) — The Browns eviscerated the Titans defense in the first half last week to the tune of 38 points and 344 total yards for a per play average of 8.0 yards. Tennessee is now 9-1-1 toward overs since playing under the total in the season opener.
Arizona Cardinals (2 to 1.5) — The Cardinals have failed to cover in five straight games after opening the season with a 5-2 ATS record. Kyler Murray has run just five times in each of his last three games for a combined 61 rushing yards after he ran 10+ times for 60+ yards in each of his four previous games.
Las Vegas Raiders (2 to 1) — I didn’t significantly drop the Raiders last week because I thought it may have been just a one-off poor performance against the Falcons, but they backed up that game with yet another disappointing performance against the Jets. The Raiders needed Gregg Williams to be a complete moron with his Cover-0 blitz in the final seconds to pull out a victory over the Jets.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2 to -3) — The Eagles’ pathetic offense muscled just three points in the first 52 minutes against the Packers before HC Doug Pederson finally benched Carson Wentz for Jalen Hurts to give the Eagles a small spark. Hurts has a difficult first starting spot this week against a Saints defense that’s the second-best defensive unit in the league behind Pittsburgh.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1 to -3) — I had a strong week overall with spread and prop bets in Week 13, but by far my biggest blunder was backing a completely demoralized Chargers organization last week. HC Anthony Lynn’s ineptitude has eroded this entire roster and it’s well past the time for this organization to make a change.
Chicago Bears (-2.5 to -3.5) — Mitchell Trubisky lost a costly fumble deep in his own territory in the final minutes last week against the Lions, which opened the door for Detroit to pull the outright upset. The Bears have failed to cover in four straight games and they’ve lost six straight games outright to fall out of serious playoff contention.
Dallas Cowboys (-5. To -6) — The Cowboys continue to plummet to the bottom of my power ratings after they dropped to 2-10 ATS with their third consecutive loss by 17+ points. We’ll find out who the worst team in the NFL is this week when the Cowboys travel to Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7 to -8.5) — The Bengals are my new worst team in the league, taking the spot occupied by the Jets for the last 11 weeks. Brandon Allen threw a 72-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Boyd that traveled just one air yard, but they otherwise averaged just 2.5 yards per play last week against the Dolphins.