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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
Best Bets ATS Record: 40-40-3 (-4.89 units); W16: 2-2 (-.22 units)
Overall ATS Record: 128-107-4 (54.5%); W16: 7-7-1 (50%)
Totals Record: 5-6 (-1.2 units); W16: 1-0 (+.91)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Over 49.5, BetMGM)
I’m a little surprised this total hasn’t budged much this week as it’s still sitting under 50 points. Both of these offenses are trending upward while the defenses are trending downward because of injuries. The Eagles have played over the total in consecutive games with Jalen Hurts after playing under the total in the final six games with Carson Wentz. The Cowboys have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, and they’re 4-1 toward overs in their last five games. Dallas could also be down three defensive starters this week in Leighton Vander Esch, Antwaun Woods, and Xavier Woods while the Eagles secondary got ripped by the Cardinals last week without Rodney McLeod and Avonte Maddox — they’ll at least get Darius Slay back this week.
Ezekiel Elliott’s return to the lineup is the only downside for the over this week since the Cowboys will be taking the better back, Tony Pollard, off the field to run Zeke for three yards and a cloud of dust. At least the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives and, if they have any sense, they’ll get Pollard more involved than they have in the past next to Zeke since this is a win or go home game. I like this number up to 50.5 if this line does move up over the weekend. Risk one unit at -11 to win .91 units (Dec. 25)
Buffalo Bills (-6.5, FanDuel) at New England Patriots
I debated adding this game to my Week 16 Opening Line Report and I’m jumping on it now with the Bills heading toward being seven-point road favorites in the near future. The Patriots would be better served to start Jarrett Stidham at this point over a struggling Cam Newton, but it looks like HC Bill Belichick will ride with Newton for the rest of the season. The Patriots could be without Stephon Gilmore, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year, this week after he suffered a non-contact knee injury against the Dolphins. That’s bad news with a matchup looming against Stefon Diggs, who should be available to play after getting a scare in Week 15 with a foot issue. The Bills are a team on a mission after winning their first AFC East title since 1995, and they have plenty to play for with their seeding still up in the air heading into Week 16. We’ll see how motivated the Patriots will be in their first game after being eliminated from playoff contention for the first time since 2008. I’m grabbing the Bills laying less than a touchdown now, and I can only look at Buffalo if this line sits at -7 later this week — I’d avoid it if this line gets to -7.5 or higher. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Dec. 21)
Indianapolis Colts (+3, FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I broke this game down as part of my Week 16 Opening Line Report. The Colts failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites against the Texans last week, but you at least got a push if you bet the game correctly on the Colts side with plenty of -7s available all week. The Colts have still covered in four of their last six games with just one ugly performance mixed in there — a lopsided loss to the Titans in Week 12. The Steelers have failed to cover in three straight games with two outright losses in the mix. Pittsburgh is also 5-0-1 toward unders in their last six games with its offense looking broken in recent weeks, which should keep the Colts in the mix for all 60 minutes. The Steelers have yet to play in Week 15 against a hapless Bengals squad but there’s not a whole the Steelers can do to make this line move north of -3. This line can only go down and there are -2.5s already out there so I’m locking in a full field goal while I can. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units (Dec. 21)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Rams
I broke this game down as part of my Week 16 Opening Line Report. The Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Jets last week so there’s not going to be a whole lot of market support for the Rams this week. The Rams are one of just five teams to lose outright as favorites of 17 or more points since 1978. Jared Goff has had a sneaky bad season, which has been covered up by an excellent Rams defense. His bad season has also been covered up by the struggles of his 2016 draft classmate Carson Wentz. Goff is averaging 6.6 YPA with a 3.3% TD rate in his last nine games after a strong start to the season. Seattle’s offense has also hit a wall recently but their defense is finally starting to surge. Seattle hasn’t allowed a team to reach 24+ points since Week 9, and they’re allowing just 13.0 points per game in their last four games — the Seahawks have played under the total in six straight games. The Rams beat the Seahawks 23-16 as three-point home favorites back in Week 10, but the Seahawks can exact some revenge and close out the NFC West with a victory this week. I’m locking in the Seahawks as short home favorites now before this line finishes in the three-to-four point range. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Dec. 21)
Miami Dolphins (-2.5, DraftKings) at Las Vegas Raiders
I broke this game down as part of my Week 16 Opening Line Report. I grabbed the Dolphins at -1.5 on FanDuel on Sunday night but this line has shot up to -2.5 by the time of this writing. I’m going to stick with the Dolphins as they continue to be disrespected by the oddsmakers every week. They’ve now covered in four straight games and in nine of their last 10 games with their only blemish in their 20-13 loss to the Broncos in Week 11. The Dolphins have an NFL-best 11-3 ATS record and they’re now 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games. Meanwhile, the Raiders have failed to cover in four straight games and they would’ve lost each of those games outright if not for Gregg Williams’ bonehead defensive playcall at the end of Week 13. The Raiders are likely to be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota this week with Derek Carr potentially done for the season with his groin injury. HC Brian Flores and the Dolphins won’t be caught off guard by Mariota’s mobility this week like the Chargers were in Week 15. The Dolphins need to keep winning to reach the playoffs and they have the chance to officially knock out a sliding Raiders’ squad. I’m grabbing the Dolphins laying a short price now before this line reaches a full field goal. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 21)
Chicago Bears (-7, FanDuel) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I broke this game down as part of my Week 16 Opening Line Report. The Jaguars look like a team playing out the string right now while the Bears are trying to sneak back into the NFC playoffs by winning their final four games of the season. The Bears dug themselves a hole by losing six straight games after a 5-1 start to the season, but Chicago’s offense has them back in the mix. They’ve scored 30+ points in three straight games and they have a great chance to make it four straight games this week going against a Jaguars defense that’s given up 27+ points in five straight games in 12 of their last 13 games since they beat the Colts in the season opener. The Jaguars could also be without their offensive MVP this week after James Robinson left Week 15 early with an ankle injury. Robinson has been slowed in recent weeks because of a knee injury, and the organization could sit him this week as they now have their sights set on the #1 overall pick after the Jets’ surprise Week 15 victory. I’m grabbing the Bears as flat seven-point favorites early in the week since I think this line will close at -7.5 or higher. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 21)
Player Props
Record: 137-111 (+17.20 units); W16: 10-7 (+1.97 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Justin Jefferson (Min) over 64.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill) (W)
Kirk Cousins (Min) over 8.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Mike Evans (TB) over 56.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel) (W)
T.J. Hockenson (Det) over 44.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel) (L)
C.J. Beathard (SF) over 223.5 passing yards (-112, FanDuel) (L)
Darren Waller (LV) over 55.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 54.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit) under 55.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)
Calvin Ridley (Atl) over 81.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel) (W)
D.J. Moore (Car) over 61.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (L)
Chris Herndon (NYJ) over 10.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (W)
D.K. Metcalf (Sea) under 71.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Russell Wilson (Sea) under 272.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
Melvin Gordon (Den) over 70.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Dallas Goedert (Phi) over 3.5 receptions (+100, BetMGM) (L)
Jalen Reagor (Phi) over 33.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)
Aaron Jones (GB) over 96.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)
Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (+105, BetMGM)
Cam Newton (NE) under 169.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)
