Best Bets: Week 1


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Best Bets: Week 1

Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

ATS Record: 5-0 (+4.39 units); Totals Record: 1-1 (-.09 units)

Chicago Bears (+3, Caesars) vs. Detroit Lions

There’s not many +3s left out there, but I’d still be willing to take +2.5. I had the Lions as slight favorites entering the week and Detroits will be down two key pieces in Kenny Golladay and Jeff Okudah. Risk one unit at -118 to win .83 units. (Posted Sept. 13)

Los Angeles Rams (+3, DraftKings) vs. Dallas Cowboys

I’m a little higher on the Rams than the market right now, and I have the game essentially as a pick-em contest if you give Los Angeles a two-point homefield advantage as they open their state-of-the-art stadium. You have to pay a little extra juice to get the full field goal from the Cowboys, but I’d rather pay a little extra for the full three-point advantage rather than the 2.5-point advantage. Risk one unit at -118 to win .85 units. (Posted Sept. 11)

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers (OVER 47.5 points, DraftKings)

The Panthers project to have one of the league’s worst defenses once again after they finished last season 5-1 toward over totals in their final six games. I’m also expecting a more competent offensive attack with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and with Joe Brady bringing his high-flying offense from LSU last season. On the other side, the Raiders quietly averaged 7.5 YPA (seventh-most) last season, and they drafted rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards to bring more explosiveness to this passing attack. My one concern is that Josh Jacobs could dominate and shorten the game, but I’ll bet that Jon Gruden wants to show off his new receivers enough to back the over here. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted Sept. 11)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (UNDER 46.5 points, SugarHouse)

Green Bay has played under the total in nine straight NFC North contests and these teams have played under the total in every game hosted by Minnesota in the Mike Zimmer era (six games). I’m expecting a grind-it-out affair in the season opener since both of these teams have major question marks at wide receiver behind their studs Davante Adams and Adam Thielen. I’d shy away from this bet if it dips below 45.5 points before kickoff. Risk one unit at -117 to win .86 units. (Posted Sept. 10)

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5, SugarHouse) at San Francisco 49ers

Try to find the hook while you still can, it won’t be there for long. I still like the Cardinals at +7 and this line could finish under seven points later this week. Risk 1.2 units at -120 to win one unit. (Posted Sept. 9)

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5, BetMGM — +164, FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

This game features two teams who are a bit mispriced in the market, which has created a nice opportunity to bet on the Bengals in the season opener. I believe the Chargers are a bit overvalued heading into the season while the Bengals are still being priced like the team who finished with the worst overall record last season. I’m expecting this spring’s first overall pick Joe Burrow to lift up this entire Bengals team starting in Week 1. The Chargers will be without standout safety Derwin James (knee, IR) after losing him for the year in training camp, which will make Burrow’s debut a little easier. The Chargers will also be without WR Mike Williams (shoulder), which is a big positive for the Bengals secondary since they lost free-agent signee Trae Waynes (pec) in training camp.

The Chargers have stayed at three and a half point favorites since over the summer despite LA’s two big losses in training camp. I’m expecting this line to move in the Bengals favor before kickoff, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line dip below the key number of three. I’m taking the extra half point now just in case this game is decided by a field goal. I also sprinkled a smaller moneyline bet at +164 on the Bengals in this matchup. Risk 1.25 units at -110 to win 1.14 units. Risk .25 units at +164 to win .41 units. (Posted Sept. 2)

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, DraftKings) vs. Cleveland Browns

The Ravens have famously been Week 1 locks with four straight against-the-spread covers and four straight outright victories by a combined score of 139-20. Other teams around the league could be slow out of the gates with everything going on, but I trust John Harbaugh to have his teams ready early in the year every season. On the other side, the Browns could come out disjointed in the opener against arguably the league’s best team as they break in a brand-new coaching staff with brand-new schemes. The Browns also got hit hard in training camp with three major injuries to CB Greedy Williams (shoulder), LB Mack Wilson (knee), and S Grant Delpit (Achilles). The Ravens offense has a chance to pick up right where they left off last regular season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line threaten a double-digit spread by the time kickoff rolls around so I’m posting this pick early. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Posted Aug. 27).

Player Props

Record: 5-7 (-2.53 units). All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted

  • Will Fuller (Hou) over 61.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)

  • Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 38.5 receiving yards (-118, DraftKings) (L)

  • Cam Newton (NE) under 248.5 passing yards (-115, (W)

  • Marquise Brown (Bal) over 50.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (W)

  • Tom Brady (TB) over 23.5 completions (-110, DraftKings) (L)

  • Josh Jacobs (LV) under 2.5 receptions (-106, BetMGM) (L)

  • D.J. Chark (Jax) over 58.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)

  • Joe Mixon (Cin) over 15.5 receiving yards (-106, BetMGM) (L)

  • Amari Cooper (Dal) under 68.5 receiving yards (-115, FanDuel) (L)

  • James Robinson (Jax) over 39.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Antonio Gibson (Was) over 38.5 rushing yards (-115, FoxBet) (L)

  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ) over 4.5 receptions (-108, DraftKings) (W)

  • Diontae Johnson (Pit) over 47.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Noah Fant (Den) over 39.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)