We just saw a streamer weekend for the ages. D/ST units scored nine touchdowns across the NFL. Two teams scored 20+ points (MIN and CAR). Ten others produced double-digit performances. This was Lollapalooza for week-to-week freaks like us. Well, shake off your hangover and pray that rash goes away because we’re onto Week 4.
None of those scores carry over to this week, and if you didn’t have one of those high-flying squads, you’re like the kid sitting home watching the concert on a crappy stream that you know is giving your computer a virus.
This week is interesting. Not only are we starting to see injuries pile up, which will undoubtedly affect offenses, but we also have to begin looking ahead as BYE weeks start in Week 5 (ATL, GB, CHI, PIT). There aren’t as many great matchups this week. There are several bad teams with good matchups, but do we really trust Carolina at New England or Miami vs the Jets?
Three games in and we’re starting to see trends. Who struggles against the pass? Who can’t stop the run? Which team is just awful against everything? Let’s dig in and get right for the biggest week we’ve ever seen in fantasy - this one.
We’re going to keep doing what we always do. Attack struggling offensive lines. Pick on bad play callers. Most importantly, identify and exploit bad quarterbacks.
Based on D/STs owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues
Drake’s Top 5 D/ST Targets for Week 4
- Los Angeles Chargers (LAC 49%) @ NYG
- Detroit Lions (Det, 50%) vs CLE
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax, 4%) @ SF
- New England Patriots (NE, 14%) vs CAR
- Chicago Bears (CHI, 4%) @ LV
Higher-owned Options
Houston Texans (HOU, 61%) vs TEN — Not owned everywhere, so take a look if Houston is on your waiver wire. They’ll face a Titans offense that has given up 17, 10, and 17 points to start the year. Cam Ward has been sacked 15 times in three weeks, and the Titans have coughed it up four times. This is a no-brainer if available.
Green Bay Packers (GB, 85%) @ DAL — There’s little chance Green Bay is available, but my goodness, if they are, break the screen on your phone smashing the add button. Dallas will face Micah Parsons (great job, Jerry) without their starting center and right guard. Dak Prescott will be running for his life and won’t have CeeDee Lamb to throw to as he’s out with an ankle injury. Thoughts and prayers to Mr. Prescott this week.
Top Targets
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC 49%) — The Chargers aren’t special on defense, but you don’t have to be when facing this Giants attack. We’ll see if Russell Wilson even makes it out of this game (if he even starts it). He’s taken seven sacks and thrown three picks thus far. The Giants as a team have allowed 11+ points in two of three starts. New York will be without Tyrone Tracy; it's unclear if that’s a significant loss. This is more about a bad offensive line and a quarterback who knows his days are numbered. I think Wilson forces the ball into trouble, and the Chargers have a field day picking off his lollipop throws.
Detroit Lions (Det, 50%) — After two divisional opponents and then the Ravens, it will feel like a day off for the Lions defense to face Joe Flacco and Cleveland. On the young season, Cleveland has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing D/STs. Flacco has taken a pair of sacks in every game this year and thrown at least one pick. It helps that the immobile Flacco leads the league in pass attempts because he’s a statue in the pocket.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Jax, 4%) — I keep writing up the Jags. They keep producing. Nobody listens to me and adds them. How are they owned in just 4% of leagues when they have double-digit points in every single game? This is the #2 D/ST in all of fantasy football. The Jags have seven interceptions through three games. I understand that nobody watches the Jags, but there are early draft picks scattered throughout this defense. This week, they play the walking wounded, that is, the San Francisco 49ers. We’ll see if Brock Purdy can make it back for this game, but either way, I’m not scared of this Niners offense. The Jags are giving us another top-10 week.
Going Deeper
New England Patriots (NE, 14%) — This is easy. We are always going to target teams playing the Panthers. Their line stinks. The QB can’t see over it. They turn the ball over like I crack High Noons on a weekend. The Pats are pretty middle of the road in terms of pressure rate (16.5%), and they don’t wow you with anything on the field, but they have talent and are well coached. Simply play the matchup here.
Chicago Bears (CHI, 4%) — We’re hoping the goodwill built up last week with the knockout of the Cowboys carries over against the Raiders. Vegas allows the 8th most points to D/STs. Every week, they’ve allowed more and more, including a 17-spot to the Commanders on Sunday. The Vegas line is easier to get through than an all-night buffet at the Golden Nugget. Geno Smith has taken 12 sacks in three games. I had a completely inappropriate joke in place of this sentence, but I thought better of it as I enjoy my employment. Either way, let’s chase an offense that has allowed 10, 15, and 17 points thus far. Bonus: if you get return yardage, the Raiders pass it out like those fun business cards you get on the Strip (you know the ones). Washington had 245 last week. You’re going to think it’s 1985 again when this one is over.
Place Kickers
Higher-owned Options
Joshua Karty (LAR, 5%) — Karty started the season with no field goal attempts on opening day, then followed it up with two field goals under 30 yards each in Week 2. He more than made up for this in Week 3 when he converted on four of six field goal attempts against Philadelphia. Two of his field goals were from the bonus range (51, 46). If there is a downside, he had two fourth-quarter field goals blocked, with the last one coming as time expired. His game-winning 48-yard attempt as time expired was blocked and returned for a TD.
Top Targets
Joey Slye (Ten, 4%) — Slye only converted two of four field goal attempts in Week 3. Yet, take a closer look at the numbers. Sly hit on field goals of 57 and 42 yards. His two misses were wide right from 64 yards and a 62-yarder that was blocked. The Titans have confidence in his long-range abilities. So much so that seven of his 12 field goal attempts this year have been from the bonus range. Four conversions have been from 50 or more yards.
Going Deeper
Ryan Fitzgerald (Car, 0%) — No, not the quarterback. This Ryan Fitzgerald is a rookie out of Florida State. Granted, this was his first-ever multiple-field-goal outing in his career. Still, two of his three field goals were of the bonus-range variety (57 and 41 yards). In fact, three of his five career field goals have been from the bonus range. His next four games are against New England, Miami, Dallas, and the New York Jets.
Tom Simons contributed the PK writeups.
