Season player prop bets have trickled out at various sportsbooks since free agency started the new league year, and props for the top rookies have been released since the NFL Draft concluded. It’s time to dive into these numbers to see if there’s any value in these initial lines. I recently broke down this year’s rookie class for fantasy purposes (RBs, WRs, QBs, and TEs) and the initial 2025 Rookie of the Year Odds.
Wagering your hard-earned money in May and waiting for bets to be settled in eight months isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’ll see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these rookie player props.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Quarterbacks
Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
FanDuel passing yards: 3200.5 (-114/-114); 188.2 YPG
FanDuel passing TDs: 18.5 (-132/-102); 1.09 per game
Fantasy Points Projection: 3460 yards, 20.1 TDs
Ward won the Davey O’Brien Award as the best college football quarterback after averaging 9.5 YPA and 331.8 passing YPG over 13 games at Miami. He immediately jumped to the top of Tennessee’s depth chart ahead of Will Levis when the Titans made him the first player selected in April’s draft. Titans passers combined for just 3317 yards last season, and they ranked ahead of only the Giants, Panthers, Eagles, Bears, and Patriots with 195.1 passing YPG. The Titans ranked 27th in pass rate over expectation (-3.5%) with Brian Callahan trying to hide Levis and Mason Rudolph last season. Callahan won’t overexpose his rookie passer, but he should be more aggressive with Ward since he came from a Cincinnati offense that ranked second in pass rate over expectation (7.5%) in 2023. Ward’s receiving corps is thin behind Calvin Ridley, but we still project him to clear his passing yards and passing TDs.
Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
- FanDuel rushing yards: 1050.5 (-114/-114); 61.8 YPG
- Bet365 rushing TDs: 6.5 (-115/-105); .38 per game
- Fantasy Points Projection: 1251 yards, 9.5 TDs
The Raiders spent top-10 draft capital to select Jeanty to be their new bell-cow back. Jeanty led the FBS in rushing attempts (374) and rushing yards (2601) last season, and only Bryson Daly topped his 29 rushing TDs. He took home the Doak Walker Award, which honors the top running back in college football. Jeanty will step into the lead role under OC Chip Kelly, and his only competition for touches comes from a 33-year-old Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White. Jeanty’s workload should rank among the league’s best for the position, and the acquisition of Geno Smith should elevate Las Vegas’ offense to a slightly below-average unit. Las Vegas’ offensive line will need to perform better after ranking 29th in adjusted YBC/ATT (1.55) and 31st in success rate (40.8%). Jeanty alone will make Las Vegas’ O-line look better. Our projections have Jeanty clearing his rushing yards total by more than 200 yards and his rushing TDs total by 3 scores.
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
- Bet 365 rushing yards: 800.5 (-110/-110); 47.1 YPG
- Bet365 rushing TDs: 6.5 (+100/-130); .38 per game
- Fantasy Points Projection: 970.4 yards, 8.5 TDs
The Chargers turned over their backfield this off-season, signing Najee Harris in free agency before selecting Hampton in the first round. Hampton secured his Day 1 draft status by posting a 96.1 SPORQ score at 6’0”, 221 pounds at the combine, thanks to monster marks in the 40-yard dash (4.46) and broad jump (10’10”). He’s a far superior talent and far more explosive than Harris, but Najee never gets hurt and could factor in for weekly carries. Jim Harbaugh could give Harris the nod as the starter to begin the season, but it shouldn’t take long for Hampton to push Najee into a secondary role. The Chargers ranked 22nd in adjusted YBC/ATT (1.71), but they added Mekhi Bechton to beef up their interior offensive line. I lean toward Hampton getting enough work to best his rushing yards and rushing TD props, but it’s a little risky since Harris could steal more work than anticipated.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
- Bet365 rushing yards: 625.5 (-110/-110); 36.8 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 944.2 yards, 7.2 TDs
The Browns found their replacement for Nick Chubb when they selected Judkins 36th overall. He averaged 5.5 YPC in a timeshare with TreVeyon Henderson on Ohio State’s CFB National Championship team last season. Judkins posted an excellent 91.0 SPORQ score at 6’0”, 221 pounds at the combine, thanks to excellent marks in the 40-yard dash (4.48), broad jump (11’0”), and vertical jump (38.5”). Judkins immediately vaulted to the top of the depth chart ahead of Jerome Ford. The Browns also added Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson in the fourth round to be a change-of-pace option.
The Browns could have one of the league’s worst offenses because of a disastrous quarterback depth chart, which could cost Judkins some early-down opportunities if the Browns are playing from behind most weeks. Cleveland’s offensive line at least ranked 11th in adjusted YBC/ATT (2.07) despite facing the highest average of defenders in the box (7.0) last season. His draft capital suggests he should have a sizable role right out of the gates, and his rushing yards prop opened much shorter than the props for Ashton Jeanty (1050.5) and Omarion Hampton (800.5), who were the only two backs selected ahead of him. GM Andrew Berry used the phrase “bell cow” twice when describing Judkins during his introductory press conference. Judkins would need 157 carries at 4.0 YPC to clear his total, which is well within reach if he stays healthy.
Receivers
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
- FanDuel receiving yards: 825.5 (-110/-110); 48.6 YPG
- Bet365 receiving TDs: 4.5 (-110/-110), .26 per game
- Fantasy Points Projection: 898.3 yards, 6.2 TDs
The Panthers used top-8 draft capital to give Bryce Young a monster perimeter target. McMillan owned per-game averages of 7.0 receptions, 108.8 receiving yards, and .72 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Arizona. The Panthers could use McMillan in a rotation with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker for the two outside WR spots, at least early in the season. It shouldn’t take long for McMillan to overtake Adam Thielen as Carolina’s top target after he finished with a team-best 18.7% target share and 76.9% route share. Young showed some promise in the second half of last season, but McMillan will need him to take another step forward to hit his overs. I’d shy away from McMillan’s yardage prop, but the over on his touchdown prop is intriguing, as he could become a red-zone force for Young.
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
- FanDuel receiving yards: 725.5 (-114/-114); 42.7 YPG
- Bet365 receiving TDs: 5.5 (-115/-105), .32 per game
- Fantasy Points Projection: 924.3 yards, 5.8 TDs
The Jaguars surprised the league by moving up three spots to select Hunter, whom they’ll primarily use on offense while mixing him in on defense. He took home the Heisman Trophy for his performance in 2024, and he became the first player to win the Biletnikoff (top receiver) and Bednarik (top defensive player) Awards. He totaled 153/1979/20 receiving over 22 games in the last two seasons for per-game averages of 7.0 receptions, 90.0 receiving yards, and .91 touchdowns. The big question is just how much he’ll play on offense since any defensive reps could lead the Jaguars to be mindful of his route participation.
Hunter will form one of the most exciting young WR duos in the league with Brian Thomas, who led all rookies in receiving yards last season. Liam Coen should call a pass-friendly attack in his first season after the Buccaneers ranked ninth in plays per game (63.2) and eighth in pass rate over expectation (2.7%). Hunter is going to be one of the hardest players to project until the Jags actually play games and we see what their plan for him truly is. He could easily cruise past his totals if he sees an 80% route share or better, or he could come up short if he sits at like a 65% route share. I believe Hunter will be closer to a full-time receiver, but there’s enough uncertainty to pass on this prop.
Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers
- Bet365 receiving yards: 650.5 (-110/-110); 38.3 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 617.4 yards, 4.4 TDs
The Packers ended their 23-year drought of passing on WRs in the first round by selecting Golden 23rd overall in front of the home fans. He raised his profile by running a 4.29-second 40-yard dash at the combine, which came after he averaged just 61.7 yards and .56 touchdowns in his lone season for the Longhorns. Jordan Love has been searching for a true #1 target in his first two seasons, and Golden will try to break away from the pack as a rookie. No Packers receiver topped Romeo Doubs’ 18.7% target share or 76.7% route share last season, and it’s tough to be overly optimistic if Matt LaFleur is going to heavily rotate his receivers once again. Golden may not open the season as the #1 WR, but the expectation is for him to be the top target at some point after spending a first-round pick on him. Golden struggled for much of his first season at Texas until the postseason came around, and I’m in agreement with our projections with the under for his receiving yards prop.
Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears
- Bet365 receiving yards: 700.5 (+100/-130); 41.2 YPG
- Bet 365 receiving TDs: 4.5 (+100/-130), .26 per game
- Fantasy Points Projection: 682.7 yards, 4.4 TDs
Brett Whitefield compared Loveland to Sam LaPorta in his 2025 Prospect Guide, and new Bears HC Ben Johnson landed his new LaPorta with the 10th overall pick. Loveland will look to follow in LaPorta’s footsteps, who finished with 889 yards as a rookie in Johnson’s Detroit offense in 2023. Loveland will play next to Cole Kmet at tight end, and the Lions ranked fourth in 12 personnel usage (33.7%) last season. Kmet owned a 63.7% route share and 9.7% target share as the lead TE last season, and his presence could hold back Loveland’s usage despite his top-10 capital. Loveland will compete with Luther Burden behind D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze to be the #3 option. Caleb Williams averaged just 6.3 YPA with a catchable throw rate of only 69% last season, and he’ll need to take a major step forward for Loveland to reach his potential. We have Loveland projected to finish under his receiving yards and receiving TD totals, and I can only look toward his unders in this loaded receiving corps.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
- Bet365 receiving yards: 525.5 (-110/-110); 30.9 YPG
- Fantasy Points Projection: 606.2 yards, 3.2 TDs
The Colts landed the tight end they coveted before the draft when Warren fell into their laps at 14th overall. He claimed the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end last season after erupting for 104/1233/8 receiving in 16 games last season. His biggest competition for targets will come from Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, who combined for a 46.5% target share last season. The Colts finished last in pass rate over expectation (-6.4%), and they’ll remain one of the league’s most run-heavy teams with Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones at quarterback. Richardson ranked last in completion percentage (47.7%), CPOE (-6.1%), and off-target throw rate (26.5%). Warren will try to become the first Colts TE to reach 526+ receiving yards since Eric Ebron did it with Andrew Luck at quarterback in 2018. Warren is an absolute stud, but I can only look toward the under on his prop with Richardson and Jones at quarterback.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Quinshon Judkins (Cle) over 625.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365). Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Placed May 6.
