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Every season, wide receivers break out in a massive way — and 2024 was no exception. Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all delivered first-time WR1 seasons. That came just one year after 2023, when both Puka Nacua and DJ Moore broke through as WR1s. It happens every year. These breakouts often smash their ADPs and give fantasy managers a massive edge over their competition. In many cases, breakout wide receivers end up as league winners. This season, the Fantasy Points Braintrust is on a mission to uncover the next wave of breakout WRs.
This Week’s Topic: Who is Fantasy Football’s breakout wide receiver?
ADP Data from FFPC Big Gorilla $350 entry redraft leagues. All ADP Data courtesy of FantasyMojo.com, supporting every FFPC Format including Dynasty, Redraft, and Best Ball.
Fantasy Points Brain Trust: Wide Receiver Breakout
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 9th Overall in FFPC
A rookie wide receiver has finished as a top-six scorer at the position in four of the last five seasons. If a member of the 2025 class is going to accomplish that feat, it’s McMillan.
McMillan is oozing with potential and opportunity. He became the highest wide receiver selection in Carolina Panthers franchise history when they took him eighth overall in this year’s NFL Draft. No Panthers WR topped 615 receiving yards or surpassed 50 catches last season—numbers McMillan should obliterate.
Bryce Young has shown a clear tendency to lock onto his top target. In his rookie year, Adam Thielen posted 137 targets, a 23.4% target share, and averaged 13.6 PPR points per game—a number I’d consider a low-end projection for a player with McMillan’s skillset. More likely, his PPG average resembles Ladd McConkey’s 15.1, with upside for even more.
McMillan has a ridiculous catch radius, is a dominant 50/50 ball winner, and has a flair for the highlight reel (check out his jaw-dropping tape from Arizona). He’s exactly what this offense needs.
His fifth-round price tag in FFPC drafts is already looking like a steal.
BONUS: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
ADP: 56th Overall in FFPC
See everything Tom Brolley said about Jamo and allow me to double down on it. I have drafted in two FFPC Main Event drafts and walked away with Williams in both of them. And for you dynasty managers: I participated in two high-stakes FFPC dynasty startups - and you guessed it - selected Williams in both of them. He could explode in production under new Offensive Coordinator John Morton.
- Theo Gremminger
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
ADP: 56th Overall in FFPC
Jamo was the talk of Detroit's off-season program. He’s coming off his first 1000-yard season in 2024, and he’s looking to build on that success with a focused off-season heading into his age-24 season. The Athletic’s Colton Pouncey wrote that “his coaches have noticed a change in demeanor and a greater attention to detail” as he enters his fourth season. OC John Morton went as far as to say that Williams is going to have a “breakout year.” HC Dan Campbell added to the chorus, noting that Williams has added strength and that the “sky’s the limit” for his fourth-year WR.
Williams finished as the WR26 (14.1 FPG) despite owning the lowest target share (17.6%) among the top 39 WRs in FPG. George Kittle’s 19.4% target share was the next lowest target share among the 24 players who reached 1000+ receiving yards. Jamo saw 7+ targets in six of his final seven games for an 18.2% target share, and he has massive upside if he gets a bump in target share in his second full season.
- Tom Brolley
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 106th Overall in FFPC
Downs ranked 10th-best in 1D/RR (0.114) and 4th-best in TPRR (30%) behind only Puka Nacua, Drake London, and Malik Nabers last year. Remember, 1D/RR is one of the best stats for spotting league-winning upside at WR.
This suggests Downs is already one of the NFL’s best target-earners and chain-movers, especially from the slot, where he ranks top-5 in Average Separation Score behind only Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. And unlike some slot WRs, that positional designation shouldn’t limit Downs’ fantasy football upside; the Colts played 70.7% of their snaps in 11-personnel last year (10th-most).
Rather, Anthony Richardson appears almost entirely responsible for keeping Downs from exploding last year; Downs averaged 15.5 FPG (~WR15) in games with Joe Flacco, and Richardson was particularly inaccurate when throwing to the horizontally-breaking routes Downs makes his living on. Daniel Jones was the exact opposite, and should still be considered the favorite in this QB competition when looking back on the reporting on Richardson’s work ethic and locker room dissatisfaction going back to last season.
- Ryan Heath
Joshua Palmer, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 170th Overall
I know there’s a legitimate debate on whether Josh Allen should have won MVP over Lamar Jackson in 2024, but it’s impossible to deny that Allen was playing on hard mode at times — the Bills had no one who could separate against man coverage.
In 2024, 169 different wide receivers ran at least 50 routes against man coverage. The best Bill at separating vs. man? Keon Coleman, who ranked 64th in Average Separation Score, per Fantasy Points Data — both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis had better marks in 2023.
Meanwhile? Defeating man coverage is Palmer’s entire game. He finished 11th in ASS against man in 2024, after finishing 12th in 2023. Injuries and general struggles against zone coverage have limited Palmer’s fantasy output. Still, there is absolutely no denying that he offers the Bills something their offense lacked in a big way last season. At the risk of “Lucy with the Footballing” myself again here after backing Palmer in 2024 with the Chargers, I think he’s an absolutely perfect fit for what the Bills need, and an aggressive thrower like Allen will love having someone he can trust on the perimeter.
Palmer is dirt cheap, and I can see some major spike weeks here.
- Joe Dolan
Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 81st Overall
I’m with the guys on him being a strong breakout candidate, and Jammo was my second choice for this award last summer (behind Christian Watson), but Jameson Williams hit 1000+ yards with 7 TDs, so I think he’d have to finish as a WR1 to constitute a “breakout” from 2024.
I’m going with my guy Ricky Pearsall. I’ve been on Team Ricky since I saw him ball out in practice at the Senior Bowl, and since he gave me some of the best vibes of all time in an interview I did with him a month later at his Combine. Availability is a notable concern, but he was off the PUP list in late July, so he has plenty of time to assert himself here. And assert himself he might, since starter Jauan Jennings has been dealing with a lingering calf problem this summer, in addition to his unhappiness with his contract. In his three games with six or more targets, he was the WR6 with 21.6 FPG. That’s a small sample, but I saw flashes of RAC greatness in a few spots, and with a beautiful schedule and a large role, a blowup top-15 season is well within his range of possible outcomes.
