The 2025 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2025 NFL Passing Yards Props, and it’s time to dive into the 2025 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds for the top quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix and a few additional wagers I considered.
Joe Burrow cashed the fifth-shortest odds at +850 by throwing for an NFL-best 4918 yards last season. He easily beat out Jared Goff (4629, +800) and Baker Mayfield (4500, +4000) for the honor. Joe Burrow is the favorite to finish as the league leader in passing yards (+600) for the second straight season. He’s followed closely by contenders like Patrick Mahomes (+900), Dak Prescott (+1200), Jared Goff (+1300), Brock Purdy (+1500), and C.J. Stroud (+1500) at 15/1 odds or shorter.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Passing Yards Leaders from the Last Decade
| Year | Quarterback | Age | Passing Yards | Odds (rank) |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow (Cin) | 28 | 4918 | +850 (5th) |
| 2023 | Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 25 | 4624 | +2000 (7th) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 26 | 5250 | +800 (2nd) |
| 2021 | Tom Brady (TB) | 44 | 5316 | +900 (3rd) |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson (Hou) | 24 | 4823 | +2000 (10th) |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston (TB) | 25 | 5109 | +950 (5th) |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) | 36 | 5129 | +1000 (4th) |
| 2017 | Tom Brady (NE) | 40 | 4577 | +600 (2nd) |
| 2016 | Drew Brees (NO) | 37 | 5208 | +525 (1st) |
| 2015 | Drew Brees (NO) | 36 | 4870 | +650 (2nd) |
Historical Hints
The favorite hasn’t led the league in passing yards since Drew Brees did it back in 2016 at +525 odds. The eventual leader has come from inside the top five in odds in eight of the last 10 years, including Joe Burrow at +850 (5th) last season. Tua Tagovailoa came from a little further down the board at +2000 odds (7th) in 2023. He joined Deshaun Watson at the longest odds to win the award in the last decade, as Watson threw for the most yards in 2020 at the 10th-longest odds.
The league leader has skewed younger in recent years, with five of the last six winners checking in at 28 years old or younger. Tom Brady was the lone exception at 44 years old in 2021. The league leader in passing yards has reached 4800+ yards in eight of the last 10 years, with only Tua (4624) and Brady (4577) in 2017 failing to reach that mark. This year’s leader will likely have to average close to 290+ yards per game in 16-17 games to get the job done.
2025 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points passing yards projection. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Passing Yards to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) as of June 12.
| Quarterback | FP Projection | Longest Odds | Shortest Odds |
| Joe Burrow (Cin) | 4348 | +600 (FD/CZR) | +500 (ESPN) |
| Jared Goff (Det) | 3988 | +1300 (FD) | +1000 (multiple) |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) | 3980 | +2800 (365) | +1800 (CZR/FD) |
| J.J. McCarthy (Min) | 3929 | +3500 (365) | +2500 (DK) |
| Dak Prescott (Dal) | 3906 | +1200 (FD/365) | +800 (DK) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 3868 | +2100 (FD) | +1300 (CZR) |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jax) | 3853 | +2400 (FD) | +1800 (DK) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 3821 | +1500 (FD) | +1000 (365) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 3809 | +1600 (FD) | +1000 (DK) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 3777 | +2400 (FD) | +1600 (365) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 3747 | +900 (DK) | +850 (FD) |
| C.J. Stroud (Hou) | 3719 | +1500 (FD) | +1100 (365) |
| Michael Penix (Atl) | 3669 | +7500 (365) | +2500 (ESPN) |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 3641 | +2600 (FD) | +1800 (365) |
| Aaron Rodgers (Pit) | 3625 | +6000 (ESPN/365) | +4200 (FD) |
| Jayden Daniels (Was) | 3596 | +5000 (DK) | +3000 (CZR/ESPN) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 3596 | +2700 (FD) | +1800 (ESPN) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 3590 | +5000 (DK) | +4000 (CZR/ESPN) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 3565 | +4000 (FD) | +2800 (365) |
| Caleb Williams (Chi) | 3517 | +4000 (365) | +2600 (FD) |
| Sam Darnold (Sea) | 3487 | +4600 (FD) | +3000 (CZR/ESPN) |
| Cameron Ward (Ten) | 3460 | +10000 (DK/365) | +5000 (CZR/ESPN) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 3378 | +1800 (FD/ESPN) | +1200 (DK) |
| Bo Nix (Den) | 3342 | +5000 (DK) | +3300 (365) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 3291 | +6000 (365) | +5000 (multiple) |
| Bryce Young (Car) | 3218 | +12500 (365) | +6000 (FD) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 3182 | +10000 (DK/365) | +6000 (CZR/ESPN) |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | 2969 | +20000 (DK) | +10000 (365) |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | 2843 | +20000 (DK/ESPN) | +10000 (365) |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 2712 | +20000 (365) | +8000 (CZR) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia) most regular season passing yards (+2800, Bet365)
Risk .25 units to win 7 units. Placed June 12.
I considered betting Tagovailoa to go over 3250.5 passing yards in a previous article. I ultimately passed since he’d likely be placed on the injured reserve if he suffers another concussion this season. I’m much more willing to place a much smaller wager at much longer odds to chase a tail outcome if he’s able to stay in 2025. We have to go back just two seasons to when Tua led the league with 4624 passing yards at +2000 odds. He averaged 272.0 passing YPG during the 2023 campaign, which was slightly fewer than his 272.2 passing YPG from his 10 full starts in 2024. Tagovailoa averaged 269.2 passing YPG over the last three seasons with Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel.
There’s early optimism that Hill could return to his previous form after he failed to reach 1000+ yards for the first time since 2019. He underwent surgery on his right wrist this off-season for an injury he initially suffered last August, which explains his season-long struggles. The Dolphins have ranked in the top half of the league in pass rate over expectation in each of the last three seasons. Miami’s defense could have them playing in more shootouts, especially if they trade Jalen Ramsey before the season. Lead back De’Von Achane is one of the top dual-threat backs, and Jaylen Waddle is looking to bounce back from a shockingly dismal 2024 campaign. Tagovailoa is entering his age-27 season, and the league leader has skewed younger in recent years, with five of the last six winners checking in at 28 years old or younger.
Michael Penix (Atl) most regular season passing yards (+7500, Bet365)
Risk .1 units to win 7.5 units. Placed June 12.
Penix is entering his first season as a full-time starter after mostly watching Kirk Cousins struggle in his return from a torn Achilles. Penix got a small taste as a three-game starter at the end of his rookie season after the Falcons benched Cousins for throwing 1 TD to 9 INTs in his final five starts. Penix ranked eighth in passing yards (737) in the final three weeks, averaging 245.7 passing YPG in the first three career starts. The Falcons ranked 28th in pass rate over expectation (-4.2%) last season, with a limited Cousins mostly at quarterback. They did rank sixth in plays per game (63.9) and eighth in seconds between snaps (26.9), which points toward more potential passing volume if they move toward the middle of the league in pass rate over expectation, if not higher.
He’ll primarily throw to Drake London and Darnell Mooney, who combined for 2263 receiving yards last season, and Kyle Pitts remains a wild card to potentially take this passing game another level higher. Penix will benefit from playing against weak NFC South secondaries six times, and the Falcons have the fourth-easiest schedule overall based on win totals. The Falcons' defense also finished 23rd in PPG allowed (24.9) and YPG allowed (345.2) last season, which could lead to some shootout opportunities. Penix could need a season to emerge as one of the league’s top passers, but we’re getting ridiculously long odds to see if he can become the next young quarterback to quickly elevate his game.
Brolley’s Leans
Joe Burrow (Cin) most regular season passing yards (+600, FanDuel)
It’s tough to find a whole lot of value betting the top of the board, but Burrow may deserve even shorter odds to lead the NFL in passing yards based on our projections. Burrow is the only quarterback we projected for 4000+ yards, and we have him throwing 360 yards more than the second-closest QB, Jared Goff. Burrow will have to go through one of the tougher QB schedules playing in the AFC North, but he easily led the league with 4918 yards competing against a tough schedule last season. It helped that the Burrow constantly found himself in shootouts playing with a Bengals defense that allowed the eighth-most PPG (25.5) and the eighth-most YPG (348.3).
Cincinnati’s defense could be among the league’s worst units once again, especially if Trey Hendrickson’s contract dispute lingers closer to the season. The Bengals paced the league in pass rate over expectation (11.9%) and have ranked inside the top three in each of the last three seasons. The Bengals kept Burrow’s weapons intact by signing Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki to be the top option behind the reigning triple crown winner, Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow cashed +850 odds as the fifth-favorite to lead the league in passing yards, and he’ll try to become the first player to win the passing crown in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees in 2015-16.
J.J. McCarthy (Min) most regular season passing yards (+3500, Bet365)
It would be a bit of a tall task for McCarthy to lead the league in passing yards after missing his entire rookie season, but he’s in the perfect system to be a surprise passing champion. Kevin O’Connell’s offenses have ranked in the top six in passing yards and in pass rate over expectation in each of his first three seasons as head coach. The system propelled Sam Darnold to have a career revival as Minnesota’s quarterback last season. He averaged 7.9 YPA and 254.1 passing YPG, throwing to stars like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold finished fifth with 4319 passing yards after never reaching 3100+ yards in any of his previous six seasons. O’Connell also kept the pedal to the metal after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury in 2023. The Vikings ranked fifth in PROE (4.3%) and eighth in passing YPG (260.7) in the final nine games, despite career backups Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall running the show. Minnesota has shown signs that they’ll try to deploy a more balanced attack in McCarthy’s first season by loading up on interior O-linemen and trading for Jordan Mason. McCarthy’s inexperience and Minnesota’s moves ultimately kept me from betting him at +3500, but I did wager on him to go over 3400.5 passing yards earlier this summer.
