The Everything Report: 2025 Week 4

You spent countless hours researching for your fantasy draft. Or maybe you just tailed all of my “Exodia” plays and felt amazing about it. Either way, now is the time when fantasy championships are secured or fumbled. The instant gratification of your draft has passed, and we’re now faced with the avalanche of information that cascades from each week of NFL football.

Luckily for you, I’m here to sift through all of it, separate the signal from the noise, and show you how to continue managing your rosters for a full season of success. Welcome to “The Week 4 Everything Report.”

This would be an impossible task if not for the army of ball-knowing film charters and the Fantasy Points Data Suite powered by their insights at our disposal. This is our edge.

Among the best tools for our task are “Expected Fantasy Points” (XFP). This metric tells us how many fantasy points a perfectly average player would have scored given perfectly average luck, taking into account the volume, location, and depth (among several other factors) of all their targets and touches. While your competition will primarily be tracking a player’s fantasy points (or perhaps their raw touch total), we can precisely identify both positive and negative regression candidates by comparing a player’s XFP to their actual output.

But it isn’t always that easy. Some players and offenses are just very good, making them capable of consistently outperforming their XFP over the entire season. The reverse is also true. Some players or teams are just bad, and will continue to fall short of their volume-based expectation all year. Over the course of the year, many players’ roles will grow, and others’ will shrink. Some power-law offenses will provide unexpected explosions of fantasy production, and others will sputter. To make sense of it all, we’ll reach deep into our toolbox of data to paint you the most complete picture possible, covering every relevant situation each week.

Let’s get into the takeaways.

Top-30 XFP Leaderboard

4 Key Takeaways

1. Puka & Mini-Puka are massive league-winners.

Puka Nacua looks like the Christian McCaffrey of WRs. Despite not catching a single touchdown pass, Nacua has scored 26.1 (WR3), 27.6 (WR6), and 25.8 DK (WR5) fantasy points through three weeks.

His usage, efficiency, production, and consistency are all somewhere between “hard to fathom” and “impossibly great.”

I do still think everything I wrote last week was true. Basically, that Puka Nacua is the most valuable WR in fantasy, but also that (here comes the hot take) Davante Adams should be valued as a top-7 WR moving forward. For both WRs, their usage (both rank top-5 in horizontal route rate) and volume (Nacua and Adams have combined for an insane 64-68% target share in every game thus far) are incredible. But Adams’ target share fell to 23.5% last week, while Nacua’s jumped to 44.1%. (Heading into Week 3, Nacua and Adams were tied with a 32.3% target share.) What gives? Well, Adams had an absolutely brutal matchup against CB Quinyon Mitchell’s shadow coverage — Mitchell ranked top-10 in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage a season ago.

Expect better usage and production from Adams this week — I’ll be ranking him as a top-5 option this week, and might go all-in on him in DFS (priced as just the WR11 on DraftKings). Despite already ranking 14th in FPG (16.4), he's also due for a massive positive regression — Adams ranks top-3 in TPRR and XFP/RR, but he also leads the league in uncatchable XFP/G (10.0). A whopping 50% of his XFP has been deemed uncatchable by Fantasy Points Data charters, compared to Nacua’s 19%. Adams has been one of the most heavily involved players near the end zone (leading the league in end zone and red zone targets), and, unfortunately, one of the unluckiest. This is all mostly on Stafford and not Adams, who — in his age 33 season — is currently the league’s leader in ASS (!!). However, with a quarterback as talented as Stafford, I can guarantee you that this will start to regress in a positive way very soon.

During my first podcast of the offseason, I told Theo Gremminger I questioned whether or not we should be ranking Nacua as our 1.01. And I wish I had stuck with that take, because if we could re-draft today, he’d be my easy 1.01.

Right now, it feels like there’s a pretty clear gap between Nacua and the next WR — probably Malik Nabers, despite his Week 3 dud. And then an even larger gap between Nabers and whoever is WR3. Is it CeeDee Lamb, who is dealing with a high-ankle sprain? Is it Ja’Marr Chase, who will be forced to play without Joe Burrow all year? Is it Justin Jefferson or Nico Collins, who have only two 100-yard games since Week 10 of last season (same as Marvin Mims, Jonnu Smith, Christian Watson, and Adam Thielen)? Is it Amon-Ra St. Brown, and we’re all — as Theo Gremminger put it — suffering from greatness fatigue?

Allow me to float another name: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, aka Mini-Puka, aka a player I once said was “the best WR prospect since Ja’Marr Chase” or was “Keenan Allen reincarnated.”

Despite coming into Week 3 battling an illness, JSN locked up his third straight game with at least 95 receiving yards. (Only Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Ricky Pearsall have hit that mark twice this season.)

Looking at their numbers together, there’s very little separating Puka from mini-Puka. And that’s a scary thought, considering how far the gap is between those two receivers and just about anyone else.

Zooming out even farther, their usage looks historically great. And it seems almost impossible for either WR to finish outside of the top-5 this year (barring injury).

It’s almost impossible to conceptualize the extent of JSN’s elite usage and deployment, let alone the sheer volume. Brett Whitefield does a great job of spotlighting it in the tweet below, but it’s basically the WR equivalent of an RB with a 90% snap share and an 18% target share who gets to run into light boxes all day behind a great offensive line. And given the ASS discrepancy between JSN (top-25) and all other Seattle receivers (Tory Horton and Cooper Kupp are both outside of the top-60), I don’t see any reason to anticipate this changing.

In short, Puka and mini-Puka both look like massive league-winners. Maybe the two best picks you could have made in your draft. Nacua is my overall WR1 this week and moving forward. And JSN is probably just a hair behind Malik Nabers as my overall WR3 this week and moving forward.

2. Sleeper Tight Ends Smashing

Remember how early Brock Bowers went in your draft? Remember our obnoxious fluffing of Tyler Warren each of the last two weeks? Well, Jake Ferguson (TE1), Juwan Johnson (TE2), and Hunter Henry (TE3) are all averaging >2.5 FPG more than him.

For seemingly the millionth year in a row, it appears that ADP has done an awful job at pricing the TEs.

You do love to see mine (Jake Ferguson) and Ryan Heath’s favorite sleeper TE (Hunter Henry) both crushing. We just wish we had more exposure to both, instead of so much Colston Loveland.