Bye weeks and injuries are here, but that just means new opportunities to find value. Week 6 offers some of the sharpest projection gaps of the season, and the Fantasy Points PrizePicks Pick Finder is built to uncover them.
By comparing Fantasy Points projections to PrizePicks numbers, you can pinpoint mismatches before the market adjusts. Whether you’re targeting efficiency, volume, or matchup-driven upside, this week’s slate has edges worth attacking.
To fully leverage Fantasy Points' projections, check out my tutorial on navigating the site for optimal results. This outlines how to maximize the tool's potential and explains the necessary terminology.
Projections are current as of 10:00 PM EST on 10/10.
NFL Week 6 Picks
Turker Kraft (TE, GB)
Fantasy Score (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 10.5
Fantasy Points: 13.5
Keeping things easy this week. Kraft has been dominant this season - 12.7 FP/G (TE6). Kraft has the 2nd best matchup this week against the Bengals based on schedule-adjusted FP/G (+5.8). It is by far the best matchup for inline TEs (+7.0) - Kraft’s inline route percentage is 56.7% (7th highest % for tight ends with at least 50 routes run). This is the largest difference in fantasy score projections this week for tight ends, so that is a slam dunk for the tight end with the best matchup.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA)
Fantasy Score (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 17.0
Fantasy Points: 19.9
Smith-Njigba averages 19.7 FP/G (WR5) and has cleared this projection in four of five weeks. Jacksonville runs zone on 78.3% of snaps and has been vulnerable to wide receivers lined up out wide — where JSN lines up 75.6% of the time. He’s posted 0.92 FP/RR vs zone, and Sam Darnold ranks 3rd in passer rating against zone coverage. The matchup aligns perfectly with his skill set.
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Rush + Rec Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 53.5
Fantasy Points: 63.7
Montgomery draws an elite efficiency matchup. Kansas City allows the 4th-most rushing yards before contact (2.41 YBC/A), while Detroit creates the 7th-most (2.32 YBC/A). Montgomery averages 1.95 YBC/A himself and should benefit from favorable blocking lanes throughout the game. Volume and line play both tilt his way.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
Receiving Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 51.5
Fantasy Points: 63.6
McCaffrey has topped this projection in every game this season, and Tampa Bay remains one of the league’s most favorable matchups for receiving backs. His YPRR and target share both rise when San Francisco plays from behind or in neutral scripts. With consistent route participation and elite usage, McCaffrey continues to outperform expectations.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
- Pass + Rush Yards (Standard) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 262.5
- Fantasy Points: 301.0
Going back to the well with Stafford this week. As mentioned last week, Stafford’s FP/DB jumps from 0.40 when pressured to 0.59 when clean. The Rams also grade 6th best Pass Grade this week. Stafford’s FP/DB jumps from 0.52 to 0.76 against man, which the Ravens run at the 3rd highest rate in the league (40.1%) and give up the 12th most FP/DB (0.64). This is ANOTHER smash matchup for Stafford. As a bonus, I like the Fantasy Score projection this week. The yardage difference is much higher, so that is what I want in my lineup.
Additional Picks
Want more than just Standard options for your lineup? We have you covered.
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, CAR)
- Receiving Yards (Demon) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 24.5
- Fantasy Points: 27.7
Sanders has exceeded this projection in two of three healthy games, and Dallas’s zone rate (2nd-highest in the NFL) plays right into his strengths. His YPRR vs zone jumps from 0.33 vs man to 1.29. A quietly high-upside Demon pick for Week 6.
Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)
- Rush + Rec TDs (Demon) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 0.5
- Fantasy Points: 0.7
Odunze has scored in every game this season and thrives against man coverage (1.3 FP/RR). Washington plays man above league average, and Odunze’s red-zone role keeps his touchdown odds high. His consistency makes him a core play again this week.
WR Leaders in Separation Win-Rate vs. Man Coverage
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 30, 2025
+ @FantasyPtsData
1. Rome Odunze (52.6%)
2. Mike Evans (50.0%)
3. Davante Adams (41.3%)
4. Ricky Pearsall (40.9%) 👀
5. DeVonta Smith (37.5%) https://t.co/UHe5xrBrGZ
Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV)
- Rush Yards (Goblin) — MORE
- PrizePicks: 64.5
- Fantasy Points: 85.8
Jeanty draws the 3rd-best RB rushing matchup of Week 6 with Las Vegas grading top-3 in team Rush Grade. He’s averaging over 4.0 YPC over his last two games and faces a Tennessee front that has struggled to generate negative plays. A strong Goblin selection anchored by both volume and efficiency.
Closing Remarks
Week 6 brings clear projection edges across multiple positions — and now is the time to capitalize. Use the Fantasy Points PrizePicks Pick Finder to turn data into action!
Join the Fantasy Points Discord for real-time updates, strategy threads, and exclusive promotions throughout the season. Bye weeks may thin rosters — but they open up opportunities for those who know where to look.
