Best PrizePicks Plays: 2025 NFL Week 5

After a month of chaos — injuries, variance, and unexpected starts — Week 5 gives us a chance to reset and strike back. The Fantasy Points PrizePicks Pick Finder identifies the biggest projection gaps between expert data and the board, helping you turn early-season swings into winning opportunities.

Apologies for missing Week 4 — I was a late scratch, just like Jaylen Warren. But we’re back and ready to roll. This week’s matchups bring sharper roles, defined usage trends, and clear edges you can act on. Let’s lock in and build some winning lineups.

To fully leverage Fantasy Points' projections, check out my tutorial on navigating the site for optimal results. This outlines how to maximize the tool's potential and explains the necessary terminology.

Projections are current as of 10:00 PM EST on 10/1.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)

• Fantasy Score (Standard) — MORE

• PrizePicks: 16.5

• Fantasy Points: 18.9

Stafford’s been steady all season, and Week 5 sets up perfectly. San Francisco ranks 31st in pressure rate, and Stafford’s FP/DB jumps from 0.43 when pressured to 0.56 when clean. The Rams also grade 6th best Pass Grade this week. If Stafford drops back 34+ times, his efficiency and matchup create a clear path to beat this projection.

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

• Passing Yards (Standard) — MORE

• PrizePicks: 240.5

• Fantasy Points: 275.4

Prescott’s volume is rising after a slow Week 1, and this matchup fits his strengths. The Jets sit middle of the pack in yards allowed but struggle in coverage — ranking 17th in FP/DB vs zone and 3rd vs man, which they run at the 6th highest rate in the league. Dak ranks top-10 in passer rating against zone, and this setup points toward another efficient week through the air.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR)

• Receiving Yards (Standard) — MORE

• PrizePicks: 59.5

• Fantasy Points: 64.7

Miami is a dumpster fire. The only metric that they are remotely average in is single high coverage. McMillan has logged more than the current projection in ¾ weeks so far. McMillan has been significantly better against single high versus 2-High. Miami gives up 1.29 FP/DB in man coverage and McMillan has dominated man in limited opportunities so far. This sets up well for McMillan to make a statement.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)

• Rushing Yards (Standard) — MORE

• PrizePicks: 62.5

• Fantasy Points: 80.7

This game sets up perfectly for Etienne’s running style. Kansas City allows the 2nd-most rushing yards before contact, and Jacksonville ranks 2nd-best in creating them. That trench edge creates one of the largest rushing projection differences this week. Etienne’s burst and workload make him one of the strongest RB projections on the slate.

Jordan Mason (RB, MIN)

• Rush + Rec Yards (Standard) — LESS

• PrizePicks: 85.5

• Fantasy Points: 73.8

Cleveland’s front has been dominant. Opponents average only 0.79 YBC/A, the lowest mark in football. Minnesota carries the 3rd-lowest Rush Grade of Week 5, and Mason has only topped this projection once all year. Against a defense that controls the line of scrimmage, Mason faces an uphill battle to reach 85 total yards.

Additional Picks

Want more than just Standard options for your lineup? We have you covered.

Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLV)

• Rush + Rec TDs (Demon) — MORE
• PrizePicks: 0.5
• Fantasy Points: 0.8

Judkins’ role continues to grow, with his snap share climbing for two straight weeks and an 80% XFP share in Week 4. He’s earned goal-line work and high-value touches, and even in an average matchup, his usage gives him multiple scoring paths. This Demon pick leans into volume-driven touchdown equity.

Garrett Wilson (WR, NYG)

• Receiving Yards (Goblin) — MORE
• PrizePicks: 49.5
• Fantasy Points: 91.0

Wilson has cleared this projection in every game so far, and advanced metrics point to another strong performance. According to the schedule-adjusted FPG allowed tool Dallas boosts opposing wide receivers by the highest total in Week 5. Wilson’s consistency and role make this a confident Goblin selection.

Closing Remarks

Week 5 marks the turning point of the season — where emerging trends become reliable signals. Use the Fantasy Points PrizePicks Pick Finder to spot those projection mismatches and convert data into profit.

For even more insight, join the Fantasy Points Discord. You’ll get real-time projection updates, promo breakdowns, and expert analysis all week long. The season is heating up — don’t fall behind while the edges are still this sharp.