Week 13 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 13 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Good luck this week!

Seahawks at Cowboys (TNF)

Must Start

Dak Prescott – This is a tougher matchup, but we can’t take Prescott out of lineups. There are too many good quarterbacks out on a bye this week. Seattle is holding opposing quarterbacks to the 10th-fewest passing FP per dropback (0.34) to give us a little downside. Regardless, Dak has the 2nd-highest ceiling on the slate (behind Hurts) after he’s cashed in a top-5 score among quarterbacks in five of his last 6 games. Only Miami (30) has a higher implied point total than Dallas (28.3).

CeeDee Lamb – Lamb and Prescott are absolutely feasting against zone coverage (25-of-33 targets for 295 yards and 1 TD) since they became one of the league’s most pass-heavy teams over their last five games. Dallas leads the league in pass rate over expectation (+12.1%) since Week 7, and Lamb has seen 9 or more targets in five straight games as a result.

Tony Pollard – He did it again! After running so cold in the touchdown department from Weeks 2-10, Pollard has smashed in two easier matchups (vs. Panthers and Commanders) with 25/140/2 rushing (and 10/40 receiving). This is a third straight great spot. Seattle’s run defense has cracked, and they’ve allowed a whopping 122/641/7 rushing (5.25 YPC) over their last five games. No run defense has allowed more FPG (31.5) in this span than the Seahawks.

Start ‘Em

Jake Ferguson – If you want to chase a TD here, you could do worse. This is a good spot for Ferguson in general. Over the last five weeks, Ferguson ranks 2nd on the team in first reads (19% share) against zone coverage ahead of Cooks (11%), Gallup (8%), and Tolbert (8%). Seattle is allowing the 10th-most yards per game (51.8) to tight ends.

FLEX Plays

D.K. Metcalf – None of the Seahawks receivers survived last week’s mess of an offensive performance. Metcalf continues to see great volume – he has 9 or more targets in five of his last 6 games – but he’s hauled in just 25-of-57 targets for 410 yards (1 TD) in this span. He’s overdue for a strong fantasy game based on that strong volume (14.5 expected fantasy points vs. 10.9 actual FPG), however, this is obviously not a spot to get excited about. Cowboys CBs Stephon Gilmore and Da’Ron Bland are holding opposing outside receivers to the 6th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-6.0 below average). He's still just a boom-or-bust WR2/FLEX.

Zach Charbonnet – After not practicing again all week, Ken Walker (oblique) will miss his second straight game. As expected, Charbonnet handled a bell-cow workload without Walker in Week 12 with an 87% snap rate (2nd-highest among RBs), but found little room to run against the 49ers fast, athletic defense. He was held to 58 scrimmage yards on 18 touches. This is another rough spot. The Cowboys are allowing the 4th-fewest scrimmage yards per game (102.3), and they’ve only allowed three individual RBs to clear 60 yards rushing (James Conner, Jordan Mason, and Saquon Barkley).

Sit ‘Em

Geno Smith – Only a consideration for 2-QB/SuperFlex leagues.

Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Dallas plays the 4th-highest rate of man coverage (39.3%). In this matchup, both Lockett and JSN are going to continue to operate as clear secondary options. Metcalf (33% target share | 50% air yards) is absolutely dominating the target volume against Cover-1 (man). By comparison, Smith-Njigba (20% TS | 26% AY) has seen one more target vs. Cover-1 than Lockett (19% TS | 20% AY). JSN has a little bit of matchup upside out of the slot here after the Cowboys allowed back-to-back solid games to slot receivers Adam Thielen (8/74) and Curtis Samuel (9/100). Lockett and JSN are low-floor WR3/FLEX options.

Brandin Cooks – Seattle plays the 3rd-highest rate of zone coverage (83.7%), and Cooks continues to live off of low volume. He’s earned more looks against man-to-man coverage as of late. Over the last five games since Dallas’ bye week, Cooks has just 11% of the targets vs. zone coverages (but that jumps to 17% vs. man coverage).

Chargers at Patriots

Must Start

Keenan Allen – On pace for 199 targets this season.

Start ‘Em

Justin Herbert – As expected, Herbert struggled in a tough spot against the Ravens last week. Hopefully, Josh Palmer can return for Week 13 because Herbert is getting absolutely nothing out of his perimeter receivers right now. Herbert has finished as the QB8 or better by weekly scoring in 7-of-11 games, and his four “down” performances predictably came against tougher defenses (vs. Dallas, at Kansas City, at NY Jets, vs. Baltimore). With this being such a tight week for quarterbacks, Herbert gets a boost as a back-end QB1.

Austin Ekeler – Since returning seven weeks ago from a high ankle injury, Ekeler has rushed for 96/311/3 (3.24 YPC) and he does not have his usual burst in the open field. Among 55 qualifying running backs, Ekeler ranks 51st in missed tackles forced per carry (0.13). Only Kareem Hunt (0.12 MTF/carry), Ezekiel Elliott (0.12), Matt Breida (0.10), and Latavius Murray (0.10) are less elusive on their carries. The good news is that Ekeler is coming off a season-best workload in Week 12 with 80% of the snaps. The bad news is that he will continue to struggle for efficiency because the Patriots' run defense is stifling (3.26 YPC allowed – fewest).

Rhamondre Stevenson – While it’s over for Mac Jones… Stevenson has taken off after a slow start to his season. After posting 107 scrimmage yards on a season-high 26 touches, he’s now cleared 70 yards from scrimmage in five of his last 6 games. He cashed in his fourth TD of the season, and scores are going to continue to be hard to come by, with the Patriots crashing towards a top-3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. At the very least, Stevenson’s role is gaining steam at the right time. With a season-high snap rate in Week 12, Stevenson’s snaps have increased in four straight games (58% > 63% > 67% > 78%). This pass offense is an embarrassment, but Stevenson is an RB2 start. The Chargers are allowing 135.6 scrimmage yards per game to running backs (7th-most).

Sit ‘Em

Gerald Everett – He scored a TD last week, but he still split routes (29 to 16) with Donald Parham. This is not new. Everett has not run a route on more than 60% of the pass plays in a single game this season.

Hunter Henry

DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster – Parker “led” the Patriots WR group in routes last week (57% share) because Demario Douglas (head) left the game in the second half. The Patriots signed JuJu Dust-Duster to a 3-year, $33M contract – which was the same exact deal that Jakobi Meyers signed. JuJu has turned his 38 targets into 159 yards. Meanwhile, Meyers is averaging 4.7 receptions and 53.7 yards per game – which is exactly in line with his production in New England from 2020-22. Douglas is in concussion protocol and he will not play. Kayshon Boutte (shoulder) is out, too.

Quentin Johnston – Uh oh.

Stash

Josh Palmer – Available in over 60% of Yahoo and Sleeper leagues after missing the last four weeks with a knee injury. The Chargers can bring Palmer up off of I.R. this week and they desperately need him. Quentin Johnston (35% route share in Week 12) injured his ribs in the third quarter last week, and that forced him to play behind Jaylen Guyton (73%) and Alex Erickson (49%).

HC Brandon Staley said that Palmer could return "this year" – which doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. If you have an I.R. spot available, keep Palmer stashed.

Across eight starts without Mike Williams since last season, Palmer is averaging 4.8 receptions and 70 yards (on 7.8 targets) per game. He does not have a TD in any of those games, though.

Lions at Saints

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Catches this matchup at the right time with the Saints down CB Marshon Lattimore. Last week, Drake London cruised to 5/91 receiving (on 7 targets) vs. New Orleans.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – Over their last three games, Gibbs (RB1 > RB6 > RB25 weekly finishes) and Montgomery (RB8 > RB10 > RB15) have done nothing but rack up fantasy points. Both running backs are highly involved in the red zone now, and Montgomery has 11 carries (0 targets) when the Lions are inside-the-20 compared to Gibbs’ 10 carries (1 target) in their last 3 games together.

The Saints' run defense is not as near as good as it once was. They’ve allowed 105/531/3 rushing (5.05 YPC) to the Colts, Bears, Vikings, and Falcons over their last four games.

Sam LaPorta – At worst, he’s the TE4 on the slate (behind Kelce, Kittle, and McBride).

Alvin Kamara – He will have an absolutely massive role as a receiver this week. Rashid Shaheed (thigh) and Michael Thomas (knee – IR) are both out. Some pretty wide splits have started to develop in Kamara’s passing usage, too. It’s all based on game script. In Saints losses, Kamara is averaging 9.6 targets per game (but just 4.3 T/G in wins). The Saints are +4 underdogs. Rookie RB Kendre Miller (ankle) remains out.

Start ‘Em

Chris Olave – Returned to full practice on Friday (concussion). Olave has nine or more targets in 9-of-11 games. Put him right back into lineups as an upside WR2.

Jared Goff – It definitely was not pretty on Thanksgiving, but Goff’s 44 pass attempts fueled a 332-yard, 2-TD performance. Over the last two seasons, Goff has one more top-10 weekly finish among quarterbacks (12) than Trevor Lawrence (11). As always, we like him more when the Lions are favored. In his 14 games as a favorite (11 of which were at home), Goff is averaging 303.2 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game with a stellar 8.3 YPA. As an underdog (14 games), Goff averages just 236.9 yards and 1.1 TDs per game.

In his last two starts on the road and with the Lions favored to win, Goff threw for 333 yards (2 TDs) on 33 attempts (10.1 YPA) vs. the Chargers and he tossed for 353 yards (2 TDs) on 44 attempts (8.0 YPA) vs. Buccaneers. His recent turnover streak is an obvious concern, but honestly, gift-wrapping his opponents an extra possession (or two) is not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy.

Taysom Hill – The YOLO TE piled up 7/26 rushing and 2/55 receiving (2 targets) last week while playing on 35% of the snaps. With the Saints desperate at receiver, this is clearly a spot for Taysom to get involved more. Just remember, you’re chasing a TD here. Over their last 5 games, Hill (10 carries, 2 TD) has one more carry inside-the-10 (red-zone) than Alvin Kamara (9 carries, 0 TD).

Sit ‘Em

Derek Carr – Only a consideration for 2-QB/SuperFlex leagues. He has not finished higher than QB10 in weekly scoring in 10 full starts under center.

Jameson Williams – His usage has risen over the last two weeks, but he’s still a part-time receiver. Williams has run a route on 63% and 60% of the pass plays in Weeks 11-12. He’s seen more than 3 targets once in 7 games.

Sleepers

Juwan Johnson – Gets a boost onto the streaming radar for the first time all season after Final Destination Week 12 – Saints WR wrecked this group. Johnson set season-highs in targets (7) and yards (45) last week.

A.T. Perry – He might be the only Saints receiver available this weekend if Chris Olave (concussion) can’t clear protocol in time to play.

Falcons at Jets

Must Start

Bijan Robinson – It only took us 10 games to get here, but Robinson has taken over the red-zone role. In Atlanta’s last two games, Robinson has handled 82.4% of the red-zone snaps and all 3 of the Falcons’ carries inside-the-10.

Besides RPOs and first read throws to Drake London, HC Arthur Smith has completely abandoned the forward pass. With Desmond Ridder under center and a very winnable NFC South ahead of the Falcons, I can’t say that I blame this coaching staff for just running Robinson, Allgeier, and Patterson 40 times.

Over their last three games, the Falcons have posted a -14.5% (!!) pass rate below expectation. This is not just a league-low, but it’s the lowest pass rate by a mile behind the 31st-ranked Patriots (-6.6%) in this span. No defense is facing more runs per game (34.2) than the Jets.

Start ‘Em

Breece Hall – Since shredding the Broncos in Week 5, Hall has been held to just 182 yards on 70 carries (2.6 YPC) over the last six weeks. The only thing saving him from fantasy football oblivion is his role in the passing game, and he’s coming off season-highs in targets (9) and receptions (7) with Tim Boyle under center. Matchups don’t really matter with the Jets’ continued horrendous offensive line plaguing this run game, but the Falcons have allowed 4.2 YPC in their last four games since losing stud DT Grady Jarrett (knee – IR). Once again, Hall projects like a mid-range RB2.

FLEX Plays

Garrett Wilson – The only good thing the Jets are doing offensively is funneling Wilson the ball. He’s seen seven or more targets in 10 straight games, and he’s a low-end WR2 this week in a tougher matchup. Atlanta is giving up the 3rd-fewest yards per game to opposing outside receivers (78.0). The Jets should activate Allen Lazard (healthy scratch in Week 12) for the sole purpose of taking up space on the boundary so they can move Wilson into the slot a bit more.

Sit ‘Em

Drake London – The Falcons leaning so heavily on the run game makes London a very fragile WR3 for the rest of the season. His volume can dry up at any time. It was great that he was the first read target on 43% of Atlanta’s throws in Week 12. The downside is that Ridder threw it just 21 times. The Jets are allowing a league-low 70.8 yards per game to opposing outside receivers.

Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith – This is just sad at this point. In 11 games, Pitts has 37/441/1 receiving (on 60 targets). Smith has been just as productive (34/423/2 receiving) on fewer targets (45). The Falcons rotate their WR/TE group for no reason, but it’s at least notable that Jonnu Smith is coming off a season-low 38% route share. Kyle Pitts, on the other hand, is still just a part-time player. He ran a route on just 67% of the Falcons’ 21 pass plays in Week 12. Neat. I’d rather stream Taysom Hill, Logan Thomas, and Juwan Johnson.

Desmond Ridder

Tim Boyle – Across 60 dropbacks, Boyle has completed 65.4% of his throws but for 4.1 YPA (1 TD, 3 INTs) and 8 sacks absorbed. We got a garbage time TD to Garrett Wilson last week, and those points count! Fire up Falcons D/ST.

Tyler Conklin – He split routes (56% share to 40%) and targets (5 to 4) with Jeremy Ruckert last week.

Cardinals at Steelers

Start ‘Em

Trey McBride – His role is just bananas. Over the last three weeks, McBride has earned 8.3 targets per game and that would trail only TJ Hockenson (9.0) and Travis Kelce (8.8) among tight ends this season. McBride got in two limited practice on Thursday and Friday, and that puts him on track to play.

Kyler Murray – At least we got a goal-line rushing TD last week! That was bizarrely the only carry he got. Through three games, Murray has finished as the QB13 > QB6 > QB10 in fantasy. We’ll need him to run more because he is still shaking off the rust off as a passer. According to our collection team, 23.4% of Murray’s throws have been off-target and that’s the 3rd-highest rate. There is definitely some downside here with the Cardinals sporting the 4th-lowest implied total (17.8) on the slate. Still, I’m defaulting back to the fact that this is an awful week for quarterbacks. Murray is a locked-in QB1.

Pat Freiermuth – As Scott Barrett noted, this is a great spot for Freiermuth after he just eviscerated the Bengals for 9/120 receiving (on 11 targets). The Cardinals have allowed a TD to a tight end in four of their last 5 games. Chasing his spiked week makes sense on an atrocious week at the position. The only TEs I’d play ahead of Freiermuth are Kelce, Kittle, LaPorta, McBride, Engram, and Schultz.

FLEX Plays

Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris – The Steelers did in fact work in Jaylen Warren more in the red-zone with the coaching change. Last week, Warren and Harris split red-zone work right down the middle (50% snaps, 3 carries apiece). Prior to Week 12, Harris had dominated work inside-the-20 with 65% of the snaps compared to just 33% for Warren. We’ll see if that sticks – but both of these Steelers backs are in play as RB2/FLEX starts once again. We’ve been hammering running backs against the Cardinals, and there is no reason to get away from that here. Arizona is allowing the 6th-most yards per carry (4.29), and only the Broncos (174.7) are allowing more scrimmage yards per game to RBs than the Cardinals (151.4).

Diontae Johnson – Six teams out on a bye and this matchup is just enough to put him back on the fantasy radar for Week 13. The Cardinals are allowing 140.6 yards per game (2nd-most) and +3.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (5th-most) to opposing outside receivers. This matchup definitely favors Johnson.

The Cardinals run the 2nd-most two-high safety coverage (63%), and George Pickens has seen a lowly 14.4% target share (0.85 YPRR) vs. two-high coverage shells. Pickens’ target share spikes to 22% against single-high coverage (2.28 YPRR).

For reference, Johnson receives 28% of the targets against one-high safety looks and he has a 26% TS vs. two-high safety coverage. He is a boom-or-bust WR3.

Marquise Brown – There is still upside for Brown if Kyler can dial in his accuracy. Over the last three weeks, just 65% of Hollywood’s targets have been deemed catchable. That’s the bad news. The good news is that he just set a season-high in targets (12). The Steelers are not a secondary to be afraid of even with S Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) back. Pittsburgh is allowing the 9th-most yards per game to outside receivers (123.3) and the 4th-most YPG through the slot (92.9).

Update: Brown (heel) did not practice all week, and with the bye coming up (Week 14), the Cardinals could take it easy on him. Happy Trey McBride week (again).

Sit ‘Em

James Conner – Since returning from a knee injury three weeks ago, Conner has rushed for 36/162/0 and only added six receptions for 6 yards. In addition to his receiving role drying up, Kyler Murray has handled 5 carries (3 TDs) inside-the-10 over the last three weeks while Conner has 4 carries in scoring range. We’re left with Conner as a low-floor, back-end RB2/FLEX with this usage.

George Pickens – Pickens is averaging 45.6 receiving yards, 5.3 targets, and 7.97 Half-PPR points on a per-game basis in his career (24 games) with Diontae Johnson active.

Kenny Pickett – Hilariously coming off a season-best game without OC Matt Canada, and his 278-yard performance last week was the 2nd-highest yardage figure of his career. As Chris Wecht expertly noted, Pickett set a season-high in first read throws (88%) and posted his second-highest average depth of target. Still, he did not have a TD yet again. Across 23 career starts, he’s finished higher than QB15 in fantasy once.

Rondale Moore – Has earned four targets in his last two games.

Sleepers

Greg Dortch – Over the last two weeks with Michael Wilson (shoulder) out, Dortch has earned 17 targets (9/103/1 receiving). He’s back in play as a WR3/FLEX option

Colts at Titans

Must Start

Michael Pittman – His volume is just insanely consistent. Shoutout to HC Shane Steichen for never messing around. He just funnels the ball to his best players, and it works. Pittman has seen at least 22% of the Colts' targets in seven starts with Minshew. And, over his last four outings, Pittman has received 27%, 31%, 39%, and 32% of the targets. Is that any good? Pittman is a Must Start WR1 up against a Titans secondary permitting the 4th-most yards per game (130.7) to opposing outside receivers.

Start ‘Em

Derrick Henry – Last week was yet another reminder that Henry is just extremely game script dependent. Over the last three seasons, Henry averages 22.5 Half-PPR points per game in wins but that dips to 13.7 FPG in losses. This is another spot for Henry to smash in a close game (TEN +1 underdogs). Over their last 5 games without run-stuffer DT Grover Stewart, the Colts have allowed 127/579/4 rushing (4.56 YPC | 115.8 yards per game). In Weeks 1-6 (with Stewart), the Colts gave up just 3.34 YPC and 96.2 YPG.

Zack Moss – This backfield is all his once again. Jonathan Taylor suffered an unfortunate thumb injury that required surgery and will sideline him until Week 15 at least. Just as a reminder, Moss was the RB6 by fantasy points per game (20.4) in Weeks 2-5 as the Colts starter thanks to a massive workload where he averaged 22.3 carries and 2.5 targets per game. This stretch also included Moss crushing the Titans for 23/165/2 on the ground back in Week 5. At the absolute worst, Moss is a volume-based RB1.

FLEX Plays

DeAndre Hopkins – I’m not sure if Hopkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but his route share hit a seven game low (69%) last week. He’s already having his reps somewhat managed with just three games above an 80% route share this season. This all leaves Nuk as a low floor WR2/FLEX. There is so much upside here if Hopkins does see 7-8 targets. The Colts are allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.2) to opposing outside receivers, and Nuk shredded them for 8/140 receiving (on 13 targets) with Tannehill under center back in Week 5. Treylon Burks (concussion) might return this week.

Josh Downs – In his five healthy games not bothered by a knee injury and with Gardner Minshew under center, Downs has 8/57 receiving (12 targets), 5/21/1 (8), 5/125/1 (6), 7/72 (9), and 5/43 (13). In those five games, Downs has 48 targets compared to 56 for Pittman.

Sit ‘Em

Will Levis – Since he ripped the Falcons for 238 yards and 4 TDs (on 29 attempts) in his debut, Levis has completed just 59% of his passes for 6.5 YPA (2:2 TD-to-INT ratio) in his last four outings.

Gardner Minshew – Across 7 starts, Minshew’s weekly finishes are QB23 > QB27 > QB15 > QB3 > QB18 > QB23 > QB27 > QB15. His one week where he finished better than QB15 came with two (random) rushing TDs in a shootout vs. the Browns.

Chig Okonkwo

Dolphins at Commanders

Must Start

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill – Over the last five weeks, the Commanders have shifted towards more man coverage (42% | 2nd-highest rate) with no success (0.71 FP per dropback allowed | 5th-most). Tyreek leads the team in target share (34%) and has turned his 25 targets into an unbelievable 19/337/4 receiving against man-to-man looks. Only DJ Moore is averaging more yards per route run (4.97) than Tyreek (4.96) vs. man coverage. This duo is unstoppable.

Washington did just fire DC Jack Del Rio so we could see a schematic change this week. However, if that trend continues and Washington dares to play man coverage, Tyreek Hill might go for 200 yards.

Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle – If Washington does shift towards a more zone-heavy approach this week, it will help tilt this matchup to Waddle’s favor. Regardless, this is a spot for him to erupt. The Commanders are allowing a league-high 25.4 fantasy points per game and 2.40 YPRR to opposing outside receivers.

Sam Howell – He’s now scored as a top-12 QB in eight of his last 9 games. Last week marked the 10th time (in 12 games) that he’s scored more than 18 FP. It’s definitely not always pretty, but Howell just keeps banking great stats.

Dolphins Backfield

As expected, Raheem Mostert crushed the Jets for 20/94/2 rushing last week. He’s still dealing with an ankle injury, and he did not practice on Wednesday. De’Von Achane missed Week 12, and he’s limited in practice after tweaking his previously injured knee back in Week 11.

Mostert and Achane are both off of the injury report heading into Week 13.

This is obviously an awesome spot. Since trading DL Montez Sweat and Chase Young, the Commanders have been hammered for 73/383/2 rushing (5.25 YPC) and 23/235/4 receiving (31 targets) vs. running backs.

As a reminder, Achane led this backfield by a slim margin in carries (37 to 30) and routes (48 to 40) in Weeks 3-5 ahead of Raheem Mostert. Most importantly, Achane was the clear lead back in the red zone. In their three games together, Achane out-snapped Mostert by a 65% to 30% margin inside-the-10.

Achane got in a full practice on Friday – and even on a potentially limited snap count – he’s an upside RB2/FLEX. Play Achane ahead of low ceiling options like Joe Mixon, James Conner, AJ Dillon, and Chuba Hubbard.

Mostert is a Must Start RB1.

FLEX Pla

Terry McLaurin – Since Jalen Ramsey returned, the Dolphins have dialed up Cover-3 and Cover-6 looks on 64.3% of opponents' dropbacks over their last four games. Against those two zone coverages (Cover-3 and Cover-6), McLaurin has seen 32.4% of the first read targets – which leads the team over Dotson (19.7%) and Samuel (15.5%).

Brian Robinson – Fueled by eight TDs in 12 games, Robinson is the

Sit ‘Em

Jahan Dotson – On the league’s most pass-heavy team, Dotson has 12 targets (8/75/1 receiving) over the last three weeks.

Antonio Gibson

Sleepers

Curtis Samuel – After dealing with a mid-season toe injury that limited him to just 16% of the snaps in Week 11, Samuel exploded for 9/100 (on 12 targets) last week. He’s a sneaky WR3/FLEX option. In the seven games where he’s run a route on more than 55% of the pass plays, Samuel is averaging 7.3 targets, 5.7 receptions, 58.6 receiving yards, and 10.1 fantasy points (Half-PPR) on a per-game basis. He has some FLEX appeal in yet another game that the Commanders should have to throw a ton.

Logan Thomas – After logging 4 or more receptions in five straight games, Thomas was held to 2/15 receiving (4 targets) last week. He randomly posted an eight-week low in route share (57.1%) vs. Dallas, and he is not listed on the injury report. Thomas is in play as a back-end streamer against a Miami defense allowing 5.6 receptions and 55.1 yards per game to tight ends. I really just want to chase Washington throwing it 45 times.

Broncos at Texans

Must Start

CJ Stroud – He’s absolutely cooking. Over the last four weeks, Stroud has completed 68.8% of his passes for 9.5 YPA with a 10:4 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s averaging a ridiculous 366.5 passing yards per contest, and he’s started to scramble a bit more (9/64/2 rushing) in this four-game stretch. Denver’s defense has tightened up, but there are only four QBs you’re playing ahead of Stroud this week (Hurts, Prescott, Mahomes, and Tua).

Start ‘Em

Tank Dell and Nico Collins – The Texans are rolling, but this duo is getting a really tough matchup here. Over their last eight games, the Broncos have held opposing wideouts to a league-low -15.1 schedule-adjusted FPG. Patrick Surtain is balling.

In their eight games together, Collins (63) leads Dell (57) in targets and yards per route run (2.96 to 2.50) by a whisker. Collins is averaging 85.1 receiving yards per game. Dell is at 74.5 YPG.

Collins has 27.7% of the first reads and four end zone targets. Dell has 23.5% FR share and 4 EZ targets as well. By expected fantasy points per game, Collins (14.7 XFP/G | WR21) also holds the slight lead over Dell (14.4 XFP/G | WR24).

Update: Dell returned to a limited practice on Thursday and Friday, and he will play. You’re not taking Collins or Dell out of lineups as upside WR2’s – especially since the Texans targets will be so condensed this week.

Dalton Schultz – Was limited to a 39% route share last week due to a hamstring injury sustained during the game. He did not practice on Wednesday. If he’s able to play, Schultz is basically Must Start against the Broncos' awful TE defense that is giving up 71.2 yards per game (most).

Update: Schultz is out, and his absence means that Stroud will continue to funnel targets to Dell and Collins. Noah Brown (knee) did not practice on Friday.

FLEX Plays

Devin Singletary – As expected, Singletary was stymied in a tough matchup on the ground vs. the Jaguars (6/18 rushing). If you started him in fantasy, the bigger story was that Singletary maintained the lead role (82% snap rate) as he played on the majority of passing downs (6/54 receiving on 7 targets). Dameon Pierce (5/14 rushing) mixed in but the disparity in snaps suggests that Singletary is not going to give up the starting role any time soon. Pierce missed three games with an ankle injury, and he practiced in full in the lead up to Week 12. Singletary is an upside RB2/FLEX play for Week 13 decisions against the Broncos league-worst run defense.

Courtland Sutton – All of his upside is tied to touchdowns, but this is clearly a spot where Denver will have to throw more than usual. Over their five game win streak, the Broncos are averaging a league-low 29.7 pass plays per contest.

Sit ‘Em

Javonte Williams – He got cucked at the goal line by Samaje Perine last week while he was getting checked on for a minor neck injury. Brutal. Javonte has totaled up 107 touches over the Broncos five-game win streak, but he is still looking for his first rushing score of the season (he has 2 receiving TDs). This is not a great spot here. Houston continues to play tough run defense, and they’re allowing just 3.33 YPC (3rd-fewest). Javonte profiles as a low-floor, game script dependent RB2. He’s played on just 35% of the Broncos snaps when trailing compared to 61% when they’re ahead on the scoreboard. They’re +3.5 underdogs.

Jerry Jeudy – Has not finished higher than WR26 in Half-PPR leagues this season.

Sleepers

Russell Wilson – This week sets up Wilson as the best streaming option of the slate. With injuries piled up and six teams on a bye, I’m playing Wilson as my QB1 on a lot of my Allen/Jackson teams. Houston’s secondary is just getting stomped. Over their last seven games, this unit is allowing 301 yards and 19.7 fantasy points per game to QBs. Since Week 5, no secondary is giving up more yards per pass attempt (8.23) than Houston.

Panthers at Buccaneers (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Rachaad White – He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in seven of his last 8 games. Now, he gets a premier matchup. Carolina is allowing the 4th-most yards per game (121.5), and they’re facing a league-high 3.1 carries per game inside the 5. That insane goal-line volume is what has fueled the Panthers giving up 18 rushing TDs (excluding scrambles) across 11 games.

Mike Evans – After posting 6/70/2 receiving (on 9 targets), Evans is racing towards another fantasy WR1 season. Excluding the Week 4 game where he left early due to injury (hamstring), Evans ranks WR7 by FPG (16.1) over Stefon Diggs (15.5). He’s finished as a top-25 scoring WR in 8-of-10 full games, and four of those performances were top-10.

FLEX Plays

Adam Thielen – His floor and ceiling are crashing together. Over the last five weeks, Thielen has reeled in 28-of-45 targets for 219 yards (0 TD). He’s finished outside of the top-30 WRs four times in this span. The only thing keeping Thielen alive on the WR2/FLEX radar is this stellar matchup. Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high +6.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing wide receivers over the last eight weeks. Only the Eagles (113.1) are allowing more yards per game to slot receivers than the Buccaneers (99.3).

Sit ‘Em

Chris Godwin – He continued his dreadful campaign (WR45 | 8.6 FPG) with an underwhelming 3/45 receiving vs. Colts. The bottom line is that Godwin’s role is awful, and he’s been relegated to an underneath secondary option. In 10 games with Evans, Godwin has cleared 60 or more yards receiving just twice. The Panthers are holding opposing wideouts to the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-14.9) over the last eight games. This trails only the Broncos (-15.1) for the league-low.

Chuba Hubbard – After seeing his snap rate decline in four straight contests, Hubbard played on 64% of the snaps over Miles Sanders (36%) last week. Even with this backfield trending back in his favor, Hubbard is always an uninspiring RB3/FLEX. Only the Bengals (14.8 points) have a lower implied team total than the Panthers (15.8).

Baker Mayfield – The Panthers run defense is awful. However, their secondary continues to play tight, competitive coverage despite not getting much from their pass rush. Carolina is allowing just 191.1 passing yards per game, and that trails only Dallas (188.7) and Cleveland (163.5) for the league low. They recently held CJ Stroud to 140 yards (on 24 attempts) while Dak Prescott threw for 189 yards on 38 passes. Mayfield is gutting through an ankle injury.

Cade Otton – He has one top-10 fantasy finish among tight ends across 11 games.

Bryce Young – He’s taken 18 sacks and turned the ball over six times in his last four starts.

Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark

49ers at Eagles (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey

Jalen Hurts – Dating back to last season, Hurts has finished as a top-12 quarterback in an unbelievable 22-of-25 starts (88%).

AJ Brown – Over the last two weeks, the Eagles have faced two-high safety coverage on 75% (vs. Chiefs) and 71% (vs. Bills) of their pass plays. Because their opponents are just rolling their safeties back and not allowing Brown and Hurts to burn them deep, it’s a part of why he’s been limited to just 6/45/1 receiving (on 13 targets) in Weeks 12-13.

The matchup is back in Brown’s favor this week. The 49ers have played one-high safety coverage (Cover-1 or Cover-3) on at least 51% of their opponents' pass plays in five straight games. Against single-high safety looks, Brown is averaging 3.87 yards per route run (4th-best among WRs) and he’s garnered a whopping 35% of the targets. His target share dips to 23% with a 2.11 YPRR vs. two-high safety looks.

Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy – As we expected, Purdy was held in check last week vs. Seattle. It also did not help that the Seahawks offense was a dumpster fire, and Purdy did not have to do much in the second half. This is obviously a totally polar opposite spot. The Eagles are allowing the 4th-most passing yards per game (275.2).

Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel – By coverage grade, Aiyuk (+1.6%) gets the better matchup compared to Samuel (-7.9%). This is largely driven by the fact that the Eagles play a decent amount of man coverage, and Aiyuk is averaging 0.79 FP per route vs. man-to-man compared to Samuel at just 0.31 FP/RR (vs. man).

Regardless, you are not taking either of these receivers out of lineups as upside WR2’s this week. This matchup and shootout environment are too good to pass up. The Eagles are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers (24.1), and the most FPG to slot wideouts (19.5).

George Kittle – There was no way that Kittle could survive last week in an uncompetitive game after Deebo Samuel was the lead target and Brandon Aiyuk cashed in a TD. As always, you’re living with Kittle’s down weeks and stacking wins when he explodes.

D’Andre Swift – T Lane Johnson (groin) being a late scratch threw a wrench into the Eagles game plan last week. Johnson is back this week, though, and Swift will have a fully healthy offensive line for just the fourth time all season.

In the previous three games that Swift has had all five starters along the offensive line available, he has rushed for 28/175/1 (vs. Vikings), 16/130 (vs. Buccaneers), and 12/76/1 (vs. Chiefs).

DeVonta Smith – In seven career games without Dallas Goedert, these are Smith’s stat lines:

• 7/106/1 receiving (8 targets)

• 6/99 (11)

• 5/126 (8)

• 5/64/1 (8)

• 5/102/1 (8)

• 4/50 (9)

• 6/78 (9)

Browns at Rams (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Kyren Williams

Start ‘Em

David Njoku – Njoku is seeing great usage, but he continues to leave a lot of fantasy points on the grass. Njoku has finished as a top-12 scoring TE in six straight games, however, eight (8!!) drops on 53 targets in this span have really slowed down what could have been a great breakout season. He has another good matchup here. Only the Bengals (8.9) are allowing more yards per target to tight ends than the Rams (8.8).

FLEX Plays

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua – Kupp was full-go heading into Week 12, but dinged his ankle on the first drive vs. the Cardinals and was barely a part of the game plan. Nacua received eight targets last week, but only 4 were catchable. The game was so out of hand in the second half that Stafford only attempted nine passes in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Let’s back up for a second.

In their four full games together with Stafford under center, Nacua leads Kupp in targets (38 to 32) and expected fantasy points (17.0 XFP/G to 14.6).

No defense plays more single-high safety coverage than Cleveland (73%). Against those coverage looks (Cover-1 and Cover-3), Matthew Stafford has jammed targets to both Kupp (32% target share) and Nacua (28%). No one else on the Rams has more than 9% of the targets against single-high coverages.

Browns CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) is out for another game, upgrading Nacua and Kupp as a little bit stronger WR2/3 starts.

Jerome Ford – I have no idea why the Browns didn’t try to run the ball 35 times last week vs. Denver. Ford only got 13 touches, but he turned in 79 scrimmage yards for a decent day. At the very least, this backfield has started to shift in Ford’s favor. Over the last four weeks, Ford has out-snapped Kareem Hunt by a 62% to 33% margin. Most importantly, Ford has finally carved out a role in the red zone with 5 carries to Hunt’s 4 inside-the-10. Hunt (groin) is questionable.

Sit ‘Em

Amari Cooper – Without Deshaun Watson, it has been a rough fantasy season for Cooper. In six games with Browns backups, Cooper has reeled in 19-of-47 targets (40.4% catch rate) for just 285 yards (0 TDs). In totality, Cooper is averaging 14.8 Half-PPR points per game in Watson’s starts (WR10) – but that dips to just 7.6 FPG (WR56) in games started by Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker. Brutal. DTR took a nasty hit late in the game and is in concussion protocol. Cooper took a shot to the ribs on Sunday, and he’s questionable for Week 13. Are you ready? It’s… FLACCO time! Flacco was signed to the practice squad a week ago, so he’s had a week to get accustomed to the playbook.

Matthew Stafford – Only a consideration for 2-QB leagues. DE Myles Garrett got a full practice on Friday, and he will play. No defense is allowing fewer passing yards per game than the Browns (163.5).

Tyler Higbee – Do not chase last week’s random 2 TD game. The Browns are the toughest defense in the league against tight ends, and they’re allowing just 2.3 receptions and 20.6 yards per game.

Chiefs at Packers (SNF)

Must Start

Travis Kelce

Start ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes – While his ceiling is lower this season, Mahomes has still thrown for multiple passing TDs in 8-of-11 games. We’re just not getting the splash plays because of this wide receiver group. It’s almost unbelievable, but the numbers really do tell the story. Mahomes has completed just 27% of his deep throws 20 or more yards in air. Only Mac Jones (16%) is worse. Incredibly, Mahomes’ receivers have dropped 12.2% of his deep passes (highest rate) and he’s lost 170 yards off of those drops (most). In total, Mahomes has lost 293 passing yards (!!) from drops this season.

Isiah Pacheco – As expected, Pacheco dominated the Raiders with 89 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on 20 touches. Last week, Pacheco played on 78% of the Chiefs snaps – a season-high – with Jerick McKinnon (groin) out. Pacheco is a high upside RB2 against a Packers defense that’s yielding 135.1 scrimmage yards per game (7th-most).

FLEX Plays

Rashee Rice – The Chiefs finally unleashed Rice last week, and unsurprisingly, he blew up for 8/107/1 (on 10 targets). He also dropped two passes, but it did not matter because Mahomes kept going back to him. Rice’s 63% route share in Week 12 was a season-high, but also highlights the fact that this is still a full-blown rotation.

Jayden Reed – The Chiefs aren’t an easy matchup out of the slot, but they are giving up the 5th-most yards per route run (1.98) to interior wideouts. On the flipside, they’re allowing the 10th-fewest YPRR (1.76) to outside receivers.

Christian Watson – It only took us eight games to get here, but Watson crushed the Lions for 5/94/1 last week in what was easily his best game of the year. Unfortunately, this is a really brutal matchup. No defense plays more two-high safety coverage than the Chiefs (66%), and Watson has been held in check when defenses roll their safeties back. Against two-high coverages, Watson has a 16% target share and is averaging a lowly 0.80 YPRR. He is much better against single-high looks (2.14 YPRR). Beyond the coverage matchup, Kansas City is not allowing much production to perimeter receivers in general. The Chiefs are giving up 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-7.9) to opposing outside receivers. I’m keeping Watson on the low-end WR3/FLEX radar only because the Packers are beat up offensively with Aaron Jones (knee) and Luke Musgrave (kidney – IR) injured. Dontayvion Wicks (knee) is questionable.

Sit ‘Em

AJ Dillon – Last week, Dillon turned in 81 scoreless scrimmage yards (on 17 touches) with Aaron Jones (knee) out. He played on 52% of the snaps in a game that the Packers dominated. In four games as the “starter” (without Jones) Dillon has finished as fantasy’s RB28 > RB55 > RB13 > RB23 in weekly scoring. He’s a TD-dependent RB3/FLEX just like always. Patrick Taylor will continue to take the passing down work. Taylor has run more routes (56 to 46) and has out-targeted Dillon (11 to 5) in their four games sharing the backfield.

Romeo Doubs – A possession receiver with bad hands is not a good combination. He’s been held under 40 yards in six of his last 7 games.

Sleepers

Jordan Love – It certainly hasn’t always been pretty, but Love has shown a solid floor for fantasy all season with top-15 finishes among QBs in 9-of-11 starts. It’s between Russell Wilson and Love as the top streamers this week. He is coming off his best game of the season, but this is obviously a polar opposite spot. The Chiefs are playing great defense in the secondary and holding opposing passers to -4.3 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (5th-fewest – tied with the Browns). Kansas City is allowing a score (FG or TD) on just 26% of their opponents possessions. Only Cleveland (23.4%) is allowing fewer scores per drive.

Bengals at Jaguars (MNF)

Must Start

Travis Etienne – This could not possibly be a better spot for Etienne after a rough three game stretch. The Bengals are playing awful run defense and surrendering a whopping 4.84 YPC (2nd-most). He’s tending to a ribs injury, but even on 60-65% of the snaps, Etienne remains an upside RB1.

Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence – Much like last year, Lawrence has picked up his play in the back half of this season with 32.2 FP (vs. Titans) and 22.6 FP (vs. Texans). He catches another good matchup here. The Bengals are allowing a league-high 8.1 YPA and just made Kenny Pickett look competent last week (8.4 YPA, 73% completion rate, and 278 yards allowed).

Ja’Marr Chase – He lucked out with not one but two tipped passes careening into his hands last week, so take his box score (4/81) with a grain of salt. For fantasy, we’re going to need Jake Browning to just pepper Chase with targets because downfield passing is going to be a chore for the rest of the way. Last week, just seven of Browning’s 26 attempts (27%) traveled more than 10 yards in air. The good news is that this is an awesome matchup – for as much as that matters with Browning under center. The Jaguars are allowing 127.5 receiving yards per game to opposing outside receivers (7th-most).

Calvin Ridley – These are Ridley’s stat lines in the five games that Zay Jones has been available to take up space on the boundary:

• Week 1 (vs. Colts) – 8/101/1 receiving (11 targets)

• Week 2 (vs. Chiefs) – 2/23 (8)

• Week 5 (vs. Bills) – 7/122 (8)

• Week 11 (vs. Titans) – 7/103/2 (9)

• Week 12 (vs. Texans) – 5/89/1 (6)

Christian Kirk – In five games with Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley both on the field together, Ridley leads the Jaguars in targets (41 to 36) and air yards (38% share to 22%) over Kirk. Kirk’s lack of touchdown upside is a big concern. All 3 of his TDs came in games where Zay Jones was out, and that is by design. Ridley (9) leads the team in end zone targets over Jones (5) and Kirk (1). This matchup is great, though. The Bengals are giving up the 3rd-most FPG (17.1) to opposing slot receivers.

Evan Engram – Look, I’m not excited to start Engram, either. He gets the absolute stone cold nuts matchup this week. The Bengals can not cover tight ends. Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 8.9 yards per target to go along with 6.4 receptions per game (2nd-most) to the position. He has a little more upside than usual this week.

Sit ‘Em

Joe Mixon – This is going to be a really rough back half of the season for Mixon. He was bottled up on the ground last week (8/16 rushing) and his touchdown equity is multiple factors lower without Joe Burrow under center. We need Mixon to get some dump-offs in the passing game for him to hit as a usable RB2/FLEX. Jacksonville is allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game (71.5). Much like Derrick Henry – Joe Mixon is massively game script dependent. Over the last three seasons, he averages 18.2 FPG in wins but that dips to 13.7 FPG in losses.

Jake Browning – Stream Jaguars’ D/ST.

Tee Higgins – Trending towards returning after missing two games with a pulled hamstring. He could be limited in his first game back, and he’s a TD-or-bust WR3.

Tyler Boyd

Zay Jones – He’s clearing things out for Ridley and Kirk, but he has not contributed much with 13/108/2 receiving on 25 targets in five games.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.