Week 10 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Good luck this week!

Panthers at Bears (TNF)

Start ‘Em

Adam Thielen – Was dragged down by his quarterbacks poor play last week. Thielen has seen at least 24% of the Panthers targets in 7 of his last 8 games with Week 9 being the lone exception. Chicago is playing much better defensively with Jaylon Johnson back healthy, but Thielen remains a strong volume-based WR1.

DJ Moore – Since exploding for 27/531/5 (on 34 targets) with Justin Fields in Week 5, Moore has posted 5/51, 8/54, 4/55, and 3/44 over the last four weeks with Tyson Bagent. Downfield passing completely evaporated with Bagent under center. Moore has brought in just 5 receptions for 83 yards (on 10 targets) on throws of 10 or more yards downfield with Bagent. With Fields in Weeks 1-5, Moore caught 10-of-16 targets for 264 yards on throws of 10+ yards. This is a soft matchup for the Bears offensively if they can connect on a few downfield throws. Panthers EDGE Brian Burns and CB CJ Henderson are in concussion protocol.

Bears Backfield

Khalil Herbert (ankle) has returned to full practice after missing the last four games, however, he will be held out one more week.

D’Onta Foreman’s recent strong running will keep him involved no matter what. However, Herbert is still the better runner and has a longer track record.

On the year, Herbert is averaging 2.65 yards after contact and 0.37 missed tackles forced per carry (Foreman – 2.58 YAC / 0.23 MTF).

Roschon Johnson’s metrics (2.39 YAC / 0.15 MTF) lag behind his teammates.

Foreman will take the bulk of the carries in Week 10 while Darrynton Evans and Roschon Johnson mix in. Over the last two weeks, Foreman leads the backfield in snaps (47%) over Johnson (32%) and Evans (18%). Most importantly, Foreman has handled 69% of the RB carries. Johnson and Evans will mainly mix in on passing downs.

Foreman is absolutely in play as a RB2/FLEX option with some TD upside. Carolina is allowing 4.60 YPC (6th-most) and a 50.4% success rate (10th-worst) on zone-blocking carries. The Panthers have already faced a league-high 28 carries inside-the-5 in just 8 games – which is nine more than the next closest team (Cardinals and Raiders, 19).

FLEX Plays

Chuba Hubbard – For now, Hubbard is penciled in as the Panthers starter. He’s taken his 31 carries for a grand total of 77 yards over the last two weeks… and that includes a 20-yard gain. Hubbard still has the edge on Sanders in yards after contact per carry (2.85 - Hubbard vs. 2.30 - Sanders) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.22 for Hubbard vs. 0.13 - Sanders).

Last week, Hubbard handled 65% of the snaps compared to 25% for Sanders. It might be a little tighter this week.

The Bears are playing incredible best run defense (3.07 YPC | fewest), but have allowed a whopping 64.2 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (most). Bears top cover LB Tremaine Edwards (knee) is questionable to play after missing last week.

Sit ‘Em

Cole Kmet – Was left for dead with 2/9 receiving and a goose egg in Weeks 7-8, but has roared back to life with 10/79 and 6/55/2 over the last two weeks. The Panthers have been tough against TEs to give us some pause. Carolina is allowing the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FP to opposing TEs (-4.9), and only Cleveland (19.4) is giving up fewer yards per game (33.4).

Bryce Young – It’s not just the bad throws and struggles against zone coverage. Young has taken 4 or more sacks in 5-of-7 starts, including a whopping 14 (!!) sacks in his last 3 games against Miami, Houston, and Indianapolis. He’s averaging a league-low 0.23 fantasy points per dropback vs. zone coverages. On the flip side, C.J. Stroud is tied with Josh Allen for the league-best mark (0.42 FP/DB vs. zone). The Bears are playing more Cover-1 man now that CB Jaylon Johnson is back, but they have not dipped below 58% zone coverage usage in a single game. I like Chicago’s D/ST as a streamer.

Jonathan Mingo – DJ Chark is nursing an elbow injury, but even if Mingo gets a bump in his target share, we’re far away from trusting him in lineups. Terrace Marshall will start alongside Mingo if Chark is out.

Tyson Bagent

Darnell Mooney

Hayden Hurst

Colts at Patriots (9:30 am ET | Germany)

Must Start

Jonathan Taylor – Was officially unleashed last week. Taylor’s snap rate has risen in every game this season (17% > 43% > 49% > 61% > 75%). The Patriots are playing good run defense (3.34 YPC allowed | 4th-fewest), but Taylor’s involvement in the passing game gives him such a strong ceiling. No running back ran a route on a higher rate of their team’s pass plays than Taylor did last week (68%). The Patriots are allowing the 6th-most receptions per game (5.6) to RBs.

Start ‘Em

Michael Pittman – In five starts with Minshew, Pittman has tallied 9/77, 2/83/1, 9/109, 8/40/1, and 8/64 receiving. He’s not dipped below a 20% target share in a single game this season, and he’s seen at least 24% of the targets from Minshew in 4-of-5 contests. Josh Downs (knee) did not practice all week.

FLEX Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson – Has split the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott by a 65% to 38% margin when the Patriots are trailing. And, it’s a 58% to 42% split in favor of Stevenson when the Patriots have managed to hold a lead on the scoreboard. Stevenson has 7 carries inside-the-10 compared to 6 for Elliott. At the very least, we know targets will find him. Stevenson has 4 or more targets in four straight games after he caught just 3 passes in Weeks 3-5. Like always, he’s a low-end RB2/FLEX option.

Demario Douglas – As expected, Douglas led the team in routes (78% share) and targets (7) last week. With Kendrick Bourne (ACL) and DeVante Parker (concussion) out, Douglas ran 64% of his routes lined up outside. When Bourne was healthy, Douglas was a full-time slot WR. This change in deployment is important for this week. The Colts are struggling to defend perimeter receivers, but have been strong against slot wideouts. Indianapolis is allowing the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FP to outside WRs (+5.8). However, they’re holding slot WRs to the 3rd-fewest (-4.9).

Sit ‘Em

Gardner Minshew – In his five starts, Minshew has finished as the QB23 > QB27 > QB15 > QB3 > QB18 > QB23 in fantasy.

Mac Jones

Ezekiel Elliott

Josh Downs – Dealing with a knee injury that caused him to leave the game early in Week 9. He did not practice all week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster – Shook off the dust and cobwebs last week for his best game of the year (6 receptions, 51 yards). JuJu ran fewer routes than Jalen Reagor for the 2nd straight week.

Sleepers

Hunter Henry – Henry ran a route on 76% of the pass plays last week – which was his highest route share since Week 2. The Patriots had at least 2 TEs on the field on a whopping 78% of their pass plays in Week 9, and their re-focusing on Henry in the wake of Bourne’s season-ending injury gives him a pulse again. The Colts are giving up the 10th-most yards per game to TEs (57.3), and just allowed a combined 8/94 receiving (on 11 targets) to the Panthers tight ends.

Browns at Ravens

Must Start

Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews

Start ‘Em

Amari Cooper – In four full games with Watson under center, Cooper has tallied 3/37, 7/90, 7/116/1, and 5/139/1 receiving. In those contests, Cooper has 27%, 33%, 35%, and 38% of the first read targets. Just for reference, his 33.2% first read share in games with Watson would rank as WR13, just behind Adam Thielen (33.5%). This is a worst-possible spot for the Browns offensively, but Cooper is an upside WR2 for Week 10.

FLEX Plays

Gus Edwards – Running hotter than the sun with 7 TDs in his last 3 games. Keaton Mitchell was a revelation (9/138/1 rushing last week), though, and he will continue to see more snaps in the back half of the season. Mitchell’s top gear is impressive, and he will be a huge threat in the Ravens zone-read run game. Ideally, they likely want Mitchell as the ‘1A’ runner and Edwards as the in-between-the-tackles/goal-line bruiser. Justice Hill largely played in garbage time last week. Nine of Hill’s 13 carries came in the 2nd half with the game already in hand. Obviously, this matchup is less than ideal. The Browns are allowing 3.58 YPC (10th-fewest). Edwards is a RB2/FLEX. Mitchell should be stashed on benches but he absolutely has a little bit of FLEX upside this week if you’re desperate. Mitchell got in a full practice on Friday.

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt – Perhaps still dealing with some lingering effects of his high ankle sprain, Ford was not explosive on the ground last week (20/44 rushing), but he managed 5/33 receiving to salvage his day. Usage-wise, Ford (63% of snaps) was well ahead of Hunt (30%) in totality last week. However, Kareem Hunt continued as the Browns preferred red-zone back. Over the last four weeks, Hunt has handled 12 carries inside-the-20 and has 5 TDs. Ford has just two red-zone carries in this span. Yikes. Ford is RB3/FLEX option with more appeal in PPR leagues. Hunt is a TD-or-bust FLEX. The Browns have the 2nd-lowest implied point total – down at 15.8.

Sit ‘Em

Deshaun Watson – Has very quietly put his two best games together back-to-back against the Titans and Cardinals, going 46/63 passing (73%) for 509 yards (8.1 YPA) and 4 TDs. We’ve got some positive momentum to build from over the back half of the season, but Watson is off the board in 1-QB leagues this week. Baltimore is playing stellar defense. The Ravens are allowing league-lows in yards per pass attempt (5.46) and passing FP per dropback (0.23). Just 8.6% of their opponents' possessions (9-of-105) have ended in a TD (lowest rate). Baltimore’s pass rush ranks 3rd-best in sacks (9.4%), and the Browns just lost LT Jedrick Wills (knee). Stud RT Jack Conklin (knee) was placed on I.R. early this season.

Zay Flowers – Low-ceiling WR3. In 9 games, Flowers has finished higher than WR20 in Half-PPR leagues just twice. He’s finished worse than WR40 five times. Now that Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham are healthier, Flowers has way more target competition. Over the last three weeks, Beckham has 18 targets while Flowers has 13. Bateman has 10. Flowers’ average depth of target has cratered to just 6.0 yards, with OBJ (10.8-yard aDOT) and Bateman (18.9-yard aDOT) getting most of the downfield targets in this span.

David Njoku – After being left for dead to start the season, Njoku has seen at least 19% of the targets in 4 of his last 5 games. That type of involvement certainly leaves him on the back-end TE1 radar this week. The Browns will have to throw (+6 underdogs). That said, I’m not exactly excited to click Njoku into lineups. The Ravens play impenetrable defense against tight ends (33.8 yards per game allowed | 3rd-fewest) because their LB/S corps is so athletic.

Elijah Moore – Has not finished higher than WR38 (Half-PPR) in a single game this season.

Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman

Texans at Bengals

Must Start

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase – Burrow has completed 76% of his throws for 7.2 YPA and a 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio across his last four games. In Weeks 1-4, Burrow completed 58% of his passes for just 4.8 YPA (and a 2:2 TD-to INT). The Bengals are passing at a ridiculous +16.7% above expectation over the last four weeks, and that figure easily leads the league.

With Burrow back, this offense is starting to hit on all cylinders. The Bengals have scored a TD on 28.6% of their possessions over the last four weeks, trailing only the Eagles (35.4%) and Dolphins (32.1%) in this span. In their opening four games, they scored a league-low 3 TDs on 44 possessions (6.8%).

Chase is one of the toughest players in the game. Never forget that he went 8/130/2 last season with a busted hip. Dating back to last year, he’s seen at least 8 targets in 22 of his last 23 games.

In the three games that Tee Higgins has missed (or played less than 20% of snaps) over the last two seasons, Ja’Marr Chase has 19, 12, and 15 targets. Chase’s target shares in those three games were 41.3%, 34.2%, and 45.6%.

Dalton Schultz – Schultz easily has the best matchup out of the Texans pass catcher corps. The Bengals continue to be a target for tight ends. On the year, Cincinnati is allowing the 3rd-most yards (66.4) and the 2nd-most receptions (6.4) on a per-game basis. Schultz is pushed to a top-6 play at fantasy’s worst position. With Nico Collins (calf) out, he’s Must Start.

Start ‘Em

C.J. Stroud – We were all over Stroud’s bounce-back game last week after he attempted a season-low 24 passes in Week 8. The 470-yard and 5 TD ceiling game was just bananas, though. He’s the truth. He has averaged over 7.1 YPA in 6-of-8 starts, and one of those down games was back in Week 1 vs. Baltimore (5.5 YPA). In this likely shootout, go right back to Stroud as a QB1. At worst, this is a neutral matchup with the Bengals allowing +0.92 schedule-adjusted FP to QBs (14th-highest) and 7.67 YPA (5th-highest).

Joe Mixon – As always, you’re rolling out Mixon as an RB2 and hoping that he scores once or twice with this offense back on track.

FLEX Plays

Nico Collins and Tank Dell – Collins and Dell are among the best WR2/FLEX plays on the Week 10 slate. This game has clear shootout upside, and the Texans should lean heavily on their passing game again. HC Demeco Ryans sounds like he wants to scrap the Texans' ineffective run game, and if that’s the case, this duo is going to continue to offer spiked week appeal with C.J. Stroud delivering dots. Houston’s +10.6% pass rate over expectation in Week 9 easily marked a season-high.

In their six full games together, Collins (43) and Dell (39) have split targets and air yards (31% share apiece). Collins is running 78% of his routes lined up outside, while Dell (67% outside) gets moved all over the formation.

Update: Nico Collins popped up with a mid-week calf injury, and he will not play. Dell is now a great WR2, and Schultz is Must Play.

Texans Backfield

Dameon Pierce (ankle) missed last week, leaving Devin Singletary in a workhorse role. Singletary handled 74% of the snaps and 13-of-14 RB carries, but the Texans offensive line failed to open any lanes.

Pierce is out again this week, and Singletary as a volume-based RB2/FLEX again.

At the very least, this is a good spot. The Bengals are allowing 4.73 YPC (3rd-highest) and the 2nd-highest explosive run rate (7.7% of carries have gained 15+ yards).

Sit ‘Em

Tyler Boyd – Boyd has cleared 60 yards once in his last 20 games. He has 33, 34, 51, and 39 yards in the four games that Higgins missed (or was limited in) over the last two seasons. And, Trenton Irwin out-targeted him 10 to 7 in Week 5 when Higgins was out.

Irv Smith

Sleepers

Noah Brown – With Collins out, Brown is in play as a WR3/FLEX. He has 5, 5, and 6 targets in his last 3 games, and he’ll run more routes this week.

49ers at Jaguars

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey – After dealing with a minor hip injury in Weeks 7-8, the bye came at the perfect time. CMC should be as fresh as he’s been since Week 1. The Jaguars force the 3rd-most checkdowns (14.4%), and as a result, they are giving up a league-high 7.5 receptions per game to RBs.

Travis Etienne – Rattled off six top-10 scoring weeks in his first 8 games. I remember the Tank Bigsby wars.

Start ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel – In the nine games that this duo has played with Brock Purdy and alongside CMC and Kittle, Aiyuk leads the 49ers in targets (53) by a hair over Deebo (52). The Jaguars play very little man coverage (80.3% zone – 4th-most), and we should expect that to stick here. Aiyuk is unguardable against man-to-man. Deebo is “full-go” out of the bye.

In their three full games together, Aiyuk and Deebo both have earned 14 targets (27% share) vs. zone coverage. On those targets, Aiyuk has 9/143 receiving (3.11 YPRR). Deebo is shredding zone to the tune of 12/154 receiving (3.08 YPRR).

George Kittle – With Aiyuk and Deebo dominating targets, Kittle’s target share is just 15.2% in the three games that this trio has played together. Kittle had 3 TD grabs in one of those three contests – which highlights why you should never take him out of lineups.

Brock Purdy – After looking unstoppable vs. Dallas, interception luck has run out for Purdy. He has 5 INTs in his last three starts. This is after he threw just 3 INTs across 380 pass attempts in his previous 13 games. Let’s take a step back. When given a clean pocket, Purdy has been excellent this season. When he’s not pressured, Purdy ranks 8th in completions over expectation (+6.1%), and he leads the entire league in YPA (10.1). The Jaguars are pressuring QBs at the 5th-lowest rate (29.7%).

Trevor Lawrence – The lack of ceiling games has crushed him in fantasy this season. Between some untimely drops, penalties, and red-zone miscues – Lawrence has not finished higher than QB10 in any of his 8 games. The thing is, he’s finished worse than QB17 just once. That back-end QB1 pocket feels right this week. San Francisco is allowing the 4th-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.31) and the 5th-lowest YPA (6.27). There are eight QBs I’d play over Lawrence this week — they are Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert, Goff, Prescott, and Purdy (in that order).

Evan Engram – In a sea of inconsistency at the position, Engram is one of the few low-variance options at tight end. In his first 8 games, he finished as the TE14 or better seven times. The bad news is that his best scoring week was TE7. Tight ends live and die by touchdowns. Weirdly, Engram did not have a single target in the end zone in Weeks 1-8. Among the 14 TEs with at least 45 targets this season, Engram is the only one without a TD.

FLEX Plays

Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley – As expected, Ridley had a decent bounce-back game (6/83 on 10 targets) in Week 8 vs. Pittsburgh. On the season, Ridley (25%) leads Kirk (24.3%) by a nose hair in first read targets. Ridley runs 83% of his routes lined up outside, and he has the better matchup of the duo in this spot. The 49ers are allowing a league-high 11.3 receptions and 129.5 yards (10th-most) on a per-game basis to opposing outside receivers. They are a little tougher against slot receivers (65 YPG allowed | 9th-fewest). With four teams on bye, they are both upside WR2/FLEX options. Zay Jones (knee) is out.

Saints at Vikings

Must Start

TJ Hockenson – Hockenson is in line for huge volume again. He’s seen 34% and 33% of the targets in his last two outings. He and Dobbs connected on 7-of-12 targets for 69 yards last week… with zero practice reps. Their quick connection is just another signal that Dobbs loves to target his TEs. In eight games, Cardinal tight ends had 82 targets (!!) with Dobbs as their starting QB.

Start ‘Em

Alvin Kamara – You’re obviously not taking him out of lineups. With Jamaal Williams working in more – along with Taysom Hill’s orbit – things are suddenly looking fragile for Kamara. His snap rate has declined in four straight games (80% > 73% > 58% > 49%), and some pretty wide splits are starting to develop in terms of his passing volume. In Saints wins, Kamara has 3, 5, and 5 targets. In losses, Kamara’s targets have spiked to 14, 8, and 14.

Chris Olave – Vikings DC Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Olave leads the team in targets per route run (0.28), just over Michael Thomas (0.25), when Carr has been blitzed.

Taysom Hill – Over the last three weeks, Hill has 25/133/3 rushing, 9/77/1 receiving (11 targets), and he’s completed two passes (1 TD) for 47 yards. The best-ball legend is doing it again. Hill leads the Saints in carries (16) over Kamara (13) in the red-zone in their last 3 games.

FLEX Plays

Jordan Addison – In four full games without Jefferson, he’s seen 16%, 22%, 26%, and 19% of the targets. That’s low-end WR2 levels of involvement for fantasy. This is an absolutely brutal matchup with Marshon Lattimore playing at a career-best level. The Saints are holding perimeter receivers to a league-low 73.8 yards per game.

Alexander Mattison – For now, Mattison is back in play as a volume-based RB2/FLEX. After rupturing his Achilles in his opposite leg last week, Cam Akers’ season is over. What brutal luck. Ty Chandler figures to mix in some (and he’s a solid bench stash again), but this was Mattison’s backfield in Weeks 1-3 before the team added Akers. In those three games, Mattison played on a bell-cow 73%, 76%, and 80% of the snaps.

Sit ‘Em

Michael Thomas – Bottomed out last week (0/0 on 1 target). Thomas’ route share has dipped to 67% and 64% over the last two games, with the Saints mixing in Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill more. Thomas’ positive splits vs. the blitz are just enough to keep the lights on if you’re desperate. This season, Thomas earns 0.25 targets per route when Carr is blitzed. That dips to 0.17 TPRR on non-blitzed dropbacks.

Sleepers

Josh Dobbs – After last week’s insane win against the Falcons, Dobbs is at the top of the streaming radar for Week 10. Across his last eight starts, Dobbs has finished as a top-10 scorer four times. His worst scoring week in this stretch is QB19. With 40 or more rushing yards in six of his last 8 games played, Dobbs’ legs give us a good floor to work with in fantasy.

Derek Carr – After struggling in Week 4 through a shoulder injury, Carr has completed 66.2% of his throws for 7.1 YPA and a 4.2% TD rate over his last 5 starts. Those numbers are eerily similar to his career figures (65% completions, 7.1 YPA, 4.3% TD rate). With Hurts, Mahomes, Tagovailoa, and Stafford on bye – Carr gets elevated. He’s still yet to finish higher than QB10 in a game this season, but he has not finished worse than QB16 since Week 5.

Rashid Shaheed – The Vikings play the 6th-highest rate of Cover-3 zone (39%). Against Cover-3 looks, Shaheed has reeled in 17-of-20 targets for 253 yards and a TD.

Packers at Steelers

Start ‘Em

Aaron Jones – As expected, Jones had his best workload last week with 20 carries and 6 targets. By expected fantasy points, Jones’ usage (20.8 XFP) was RB2 on the slate, just ahead of Jonathan Taylor (20.5). Jones worked as the primary red-zone back, too, handling 6 carries to Dillon’s 2 inside-the-20.

Diontae Johnson – In his four games of action, Johnson is averaging a career-best 2.52 YPRR (18th-best among WR/TE). Since returning in Week 7 from a hamstring, he’s been funneled 24%, 33%, and 30% of the targets. The Steelers clearly view him as their go-to receiver. Johnson has seen 37% of the first reads compared to 25% for George Pickens. Riding high off his first TD in over two years, Johnson is a PPR WR2. The Packers are holding opposing outside receivers to the 11th-fewest yards (95.6 per game) and the 6th-fewest schedule-adjusted FP (-5.3 per game).

Update: Packers CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder) did not practice all week and is doubtful, giving Johnson an obvious matchup upgrade.

FLEX Plays

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – As always, this backfield remains a 50/50 split in between the 20s by expected fantasy points. Harris gets more of the early-down carries. Warren gets more valuable targets. However, this backfield shifts in Harris’ favor when the Steelers get in close to the end zone. Inside the red zone, Harris has out-snapped Warren by a 67% to 30% margin. This is about as good of a setup as the Steelers are going to get as 3-point home favorites. Najee has a little bit of TD upside as a RB2/FLEX. Warren is always in play as a FLEX with more appeal in PPR leagues.

Sit ‘Em

George Pickens – When Diontae Johnson plays, Pickens’ target share dips to 17.4%. That’s just not enough to get it done with Kenny Pickett throwing him the ball. Just 61% of Pickens’ targets have been deemed catchable over the last three weeks. His high average depth of target (14.1 yards) has a lot to do with the low catchable rate, however, Pickett sailed the ball a mile over Pickens’ head on a shallow crosser (that would have gained 20+ yards) last week.

Jordan Love – SuperFlex/2QB only. The Steelers' front seven is generating a ton of heat (7th in pressure rate forced – 37.5%). Our Data collection team has charted Love as “off-target” on a wild 31% of his pass attempts when pressured (3rd-worst).

Christian Watson – Off of the injury report. Love’s stats, when pressured, don’t inspire confidence. If you want an upside angle… Watson leads the team in target share (41%) when Love is pressured. He’s caught 4-of-9 targets for 135 yards on those pressured dropbacks.

Romeo Doubs – Over the last four weeks, Doubs has 10/88/2 receiving on 21 targets.

Jayden Reed

Luke Musgrave

Kenny Pickett – Across 20 career starts, Pickett has finished higher than QB15 once.

Titans at Buccaneers

Must Start

Mike Evans – Was tackled at the half-yard line last week at the end of a 53-yard gain. In his 7 full games, Evans’ weekly finishes are WR13 > WR2 > WR20 > WR44 > WR7 > WR29 > WR19.

DeAndre Hopkins – Coming off 10 days of rest after dealing with a minor toe injury, Hopkins is the best WR2 play on the slate. Tampa Bay is getting absolutely slammed by opposing receivers, no matter where they line up. The Buccaneers are giving up the 2nd-most yards (142.3) to opposing perimeter wideouts, and the 4th-most yards per game to slot receivers (101.4). Over the last two weeks with Will Levis, Hopkins has garnered 27% of the first read targets and a strong 40% of the air yards. Hopkins’ average depth of target is 16.6 yards over the last two weeks – up even higher from his 14.2 aDOT in Weeks 1-7. Tampa Bay CBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are questionable.

Start ‘Em

Derrick Henry – With Will Levis taking over, Henry’s outlook is ticked up for the rest of the season. Still, opposing defenses are loading the box and stuffing run lanes. Over the last two weeks, Henry has faced 8 or more defenders in the box on an other-worldly 64% of his carries. In games where run-stuffer Vita Vea has played, the Bucs’ are allowing 3.70 YPC and 78.7 rushing yards per game. As ever, Henry is a volume-based RB1.

Rachaad White – Once again, White found little room to maneuver on the ground last week, but this time, he got into the box twice to finally hit a ceiling. It has not always been pretty, but White has finished as a top-20 scorer among running backs in 4 of his last 5 games. His passing-down usage just gives him such a strong floor. He’s running a route on 63% of the Buccaneers pass plays, which trails only Kyren Williams (71%) and Christian McCaffrey (67%) among RBs. He has at least 3 receptions in seven straight games.

FLEX Plays

Chris Godwin – Last week was a massive letdown for Godwin (2/16 receiving on 6 targets) in the shootout vs. Houston. Let’s zoom out, though. Over the last four games since the bye, Godwin has out-targeted Mike Evans by a 33 to 28 margin. As a result, Godwin is actually averaging more expected fantasy points (16.0 Half-PPR) compared to Evans (14.8). However, he’s only scored 9.6 FPG in this stretch. Godwin looks like a screaming buy low, and he could go off in this spot. The Titans are allowing the 2nd-most receptions (10.6) and the 7th-most receiving yards (130.5) on a per-game basis to outside wide receivers.

Sit ‘Em

Chig Okonkwo – Has not cleared more than 35 yards receiving once this season. Okonkwo has nine targets on Levis’ 68 throws (13.2% share) over the last two weeks.

Cade Otton – I can’t chase last week’s 6/70/2 line vs. Houston. Prior to that game, Otton had not seen more than 18% of the targets in a single game. This spot is just so good for Evans and Godwin.

Sleepers

Will Levis – The Buccaneers just got absolutely roasted by C.J. Stroud, but they were a target of ours well before that. Tampa Bay has allowed 250 or more passing yards to 6-of-8 quarterbacks that they’ve faced, with the exceptions being Derek Carr (Week 4, shoulder injury) and Justin Fields (Week 2, meltdown).

Baker Mayfield – All of Mayfield’s passing stats are all within his career norms – sack avoidance is just the one area where he’s really improved. After taking a sack on a whopping 9.5% of dropbacks in his previous 24 starts, Mayfield’s sack rate sits at a lowly 4.5% in Tampa. With Hurts, Mahomes, Tagovailoa, and Stafford on bye – Mayfield is in play as a streamer.

Kyle Phillips – PPR league dart throw with Treylon Burks (concussion) out. Tampa Bay is allowing the 4th-most yards per game to slot receivers (101.4).

Falcons at Cardinals (4:05pm ET)

Start ‘Em

Bijan Robinson – On the surface, Robinson’s usage in his eight starts doesn’t look too bad (12.8 carries and 5.1 targets per game). Only Alvin Kamara (8.2 targets per game), Austin Ekeler (5.6 T/G), and Jahmyr Gibbs (5.5) are averaging more T/G than Robinson. It’s just HC Arthur Smith’s insistence on giving anyone other than Bijan touches in the red zone that makes no sense.

James Conner – Expected to return after missing the last four games with a knee injury. When he’s healthy, Conner is a consistently productive RB2. Dating back to last season, he finished as a top-25 scoring RB in 12-of-16 games with nine of those performances inside the top-15. Emari Demercado (toe) is out, and Keontay Ingram stinks.

FLEX Plays

Drake London – Returned to full practice on Thursday and Friday this week. London’s matchup couldn’t get much better. The Cardinals are allowing 139.1 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (3rd-most). He leads the team in first-read target share (26.6%) over Pitts (19.3%), Smith (16.1%), and Robinson (10.4%).

Marquise Brown – Murray’s much-anticipated return is unfortunately met with a tough matchup for Brown. Atlanta is holding opposing outside receivers to the 2nd-fewest adjusted FP per game (-7.6). Only the New York Jets (-10.1) are better. At the very least, we know the ball will go his way. Brown has seen at least 21% of the targets in eight straight games. Michael Wilson (shoulder) is questionable.

Tyler Allgeier – TD-or-bust FLEX… but this is a good spot to chase a score. Arizona has faced 19 carries inside-the-5 (2nd-most). The Cardinals are allowing opponents’ to score on 26.8% of their possessions (3rd-highest).

Sit ‘Em

Taylor Heinicke – No quarterback was off-target more often (34.2%) than Heinicke. The Vikings blitzed him on 45% of his dropbacks, but he really struggled even when the pass rush didn’t get home. When he was kept clean, Heinicke delivered a catchable pass on just 64% of his throws. Desmond Ridder (shudders) was much better over his 8 starts, with a catchable throw rate of 79.4% from a clean pocket. If Heinicke struggles again, we might see Ridder.

Kyle Pitts – After it seemed like he was trending upwards, Pitts’ role has taken a backseat to… Van Jefferson. Over the last four weeks, Pitts has run a route on just 60% of the pass plays. Before the Falcons added Jefferson to the offense, Pitts ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks in Weeks 1-5. Jonnu Smith housed a screen last week, but he’s a part-timer, too. Smith has run a route on 56% of the pass plays over the last four games.

Michael Wilson – Dealing with a shoulder injury, and this is not a secondary I want to target.

Sleepers

Kyler Murray – In his return, Murray is a back-end QB1 at worst, This is another really tough week for quarterbacks in fantasy, and the upside argument for Murray is simple. At best, he is close to 100% after rehabbing his knee injury for 10 months, and the Cardinals let him take 6-7 carries. He’s been practicing in full for two weeks.

Trey McBride – Among tight ends, McBride ranks 4th in yards per route run (2.11) just ahead of Mark Andrews (2.06). His usage is going to continue to trend up over the back half of the season. Over the last two weeks, he’s run a route on 75% of the pass plays. The Cardinals have targeted their tight ends on 32% of their pass attempts, and that’s tied with the Chiefs for the 2nd-highest rate. The Falcons lead the league in TE target share (36%).

Commanders at Seahawks (4:25pm ET)

Start ‘Em

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – No one survived Geno Smith’s meltdown last week. Just 50% of Smith’s 28 passes were catchable, as Seattle’s offensive line gave up pressure non-stop. We’re getting a polar opposite spot this week. Washington continues to be a weekly target. The Commanders are giving up the most yards per game (144.9) to opposing outside wideouts.

Terry McLaurin – After dealing with a turf toe injury in Week 1, McLaurin leads the team in first read targets (24.8% share) and air yards (29.8%) over Jahan Dotson (19% FR | 20% AY) in their last 8 games. Washington leaning so heavily on the passing game will always give us a floor to work with here. However, this is a pretty stiff matchup. With CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon both healthy over the last five games, Seattle is allowing the 7th-fewest schedule-adjusted FP below average (-4.4) to outside receivers.

FLEX Plays

Brian Robinson – Washington is back to a two-man, compartmentalized committee. Robinson has handled 52.4% of the backfield expected fantasy points and 77.8% of the RB carries over the last two weeks. Antonio Gibson has run more routes (45 to 34) and has out-targeted Robinson by a 10 to 4 margin in this span.

Jahan Dotson – After a horrendous opening six weeks, he has come to life in Washington’s last three games. Since he air-balled (0/0 receiving on 1 target) vs. Atlanta, Dotson has 8 or more targets in three straight games. His TD catch this week was highlight-reel worthy, and his rapport with Sam Howell is clearly improved. In this three-game stretch, Dotson has 17/220/2 receiving (on 26 targets). Terry McLaurin has 28 targets over the last three weeks. He’s back in play as a WR3/FLEX option in one of the most pass-heavy offenses.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Set or tied season-highs across the board last week in route share (88%), targets (7), receptions (6), and yards (63).

Seahawks Backfield

For the second straight week, rookie RB Zach Charbonnet played more. However, Walker still leads this backfield with 62.4% of the expected fantasy points over the last two weeks. Walker was limited in practice in the lead-up to Week 8 with a calf injury and is now dealing with a chest issue. He did not practice on Wednesday.

Washington just traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young, and has allowed 382 scrimmage yards to opposing RBs over the last three weeks.

Seattle has the 4th-highest implied point total (25.8), trailing only Cincinnati (27.3), Buffalo (27.3), and Dallas (27.5). If Walker is good to go, he has a strong TD upside as a RB2 even with the recent change up in usage here. Only Josh Jacobs (21) and D’Andre Swift (19) have more carries inside-the-10 than Walker (18).

Sit ‘Em

Sam Howell – He’s been one of our favorite streamers, but I’m a little lower than usual on Howell this week. After holding Lamar Jackson (21/26 passing, 187 yards, 7.2 YPA) relatively in check in Week 9, Seattle continued their trend of strong pass defense. With CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon both healthy over the last five games, Seattle is allowing 6.07 yards per pass attempt (4th-fewest). Of course, strong passing volume keeps him in the QB1 conversation. Howell has attempted 353 passes, which is nearly 20 more than Patrick Mahomes (334 attempts). Washington trails only Kansas City and Cincinnati in pass rate over expectation.

Sleepers

Geno Smith – The wheels fell off for Seattle offensively last week in a tough matchup on the road. This week, Smith faces a Commanders secondary that is allowing 0.46 passing FP per dropback (3rd-most). The matchup and the markets expecting Seattle to find success are enough to put Smith near the top of the streaming list this week.

Logan Thomas – Set a season-high with a 78% route share last week, marking his fourth straight game where his routes have climbed (59% > 65% > 73% > 78%). If there is one area where the Seahawks are a little vulnerable, it’s to tight ends. Seattle is allowing 5.5 receptions per game (11th-most) and 7.8 yards per target (7th-most) to the position.

Curtis Samuel – Might be limited off of a toe injury. He’s in play as a low-end FLEX, though. Seattle is allowing the 2nd-most yards per game to slot receivers (103.5).

Giants at Cowboys (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

CeeDee Lamb

Start ‘Em

Saquon Barkley – The Giants will be between Tommy DeVito or Matt Barkley at quarterback for the rest of the season. At 2-7 near the basement of the NFC, the tank is on. They will be in play for a top-5 pick and their QB of the future in 2024. Unfortunately, the collapsing team around him and their league-worst QB group does up the risk on Barkley for the rest of the season. As ever, he looked like he was on his way to a potentially monster fantasy day with 113 scrimmage yards on 19 touches vs. the Raiders. Barkley will be the focal point of the offense moving forward, but opposing defenses are going to stack the box and dare the Giants to throw. Barkley is a volume-based RB1. New York is implied to score 11 points.

Dak Prescott – Over their last five games, Dallas is passing at a +5.6% clip above expected (7th-highest). The Cowboys are tied with the Bills for 4th in pass rate (62%) when the game is within a score, just barely behind the Bengals (64%), Vikings (64%), and Commanders (63%). Obviously, there is a major question as to how long this game stays competitive, and that makes Prescott more of a back-end QB1 as opposed to the front-end fantasy starter that he’s been in his last 3 games.

Tony Pollard – I’ll keep dying on Pollard Hill. Once again, he received a great workload last week… and couldn’t do anything with it in a terrible matchup against the Eagles. This could not be a better get-right spot. The Giants are allowing the 4th-most yards per carry (4.42). Opposing runners are averaging +2.9 adjusted rushing FP above average per game against New York (also 4th-most).

Jake Ferguson – Finally got some targets to go with his full-time usage. Ferguson set season-highs in route share (89%) and target share (25%) in Week 9. Had it not been for a few drops in Week 1, Ferguson would have posted a solid game against the Giants. At worst, he’s a back-end TE1. He’s second on the team in first reads (17.2% share) behind Lamb (29.6%).

Sit ‘Em

Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks – Second-year WR Jalen Tolbert should be playing more. Gallup has been demoted to a part-timer with a 46% route share over the last two weeks.

Every New York Giant not named Saquon Barkley

Lions at Chargers (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Has seen 7 or more targets in an almost unbelievable 26-of-30 games since becoming a starter in the middle of his rookie 2021 season.

Jared Goff – His home/road splits are favorite/underdog splits disguised. In his 11 games as a favorite since the start of 2022, Goff is averaging 299.6 yards and 2.36 passing touchdowns per game with a stellar 8.33 YPA. As an underdog, Goff dips to 236.9 YPG, 1.1 TDs per game, and a sub-par 6.8 YPA.

The Lions are 2.5-point favorites. In this 11 game sample as a favorite, 9 of those contests were at home in Detroit. Goff was last a road favorite vs. Tampa Bay in Week 6. He threw for 353 yards and 2 TDs.

Austin Ekeler

Keenan Allen – Has he slowed down… or, has he just run into some tougher matchups (vs. Cowboys, Chiefs, and Jets) in the last four weeks? If this game shoots out, Allen has 15 target upside. Since Week 4, Allen has received a whopping 38% of the Chargers first read targets.

Sam LaPorta – Chargers are allowing the most receptions (6.6 per game) and 2nd-most yards (66.4 per game) to tight ends.

Start ‘Em

Justin Herbert – Last week was a brutal matchup, but Herbert and the Chargers were inept. Austin Ekeler dropping 3 passes did not help things. With Josh Palmer and Mike Williams out, the Chargers desperately need Quinten Johnston to step up but the rookie just isn’t ready. Herbert still has a good ceiling on this slate without some premier options, but his floor is absolutely lower now. Running your offense through a pass-catching RB and slot man Keenan Allen will be a tough way to live. Palmer can return in 3 games.

Lions backfield

David Montgomery was a full participant in practice all week, and he is full-go out of the bye.

Before missing two games with a ribs injury, Montgomery was the RB7 (16.8 Half-PPR) thanks in large part to 6 TDs in five games.

That was all before Jahmyr Gibbs broke out with Montgomery sidelined, shredding the Ravens and Raiders defenses for 37/220/2 rushing. Gibbs also caught 14-of-15 targets for 95 yards.

I expect that Montgomery will hold onto the goal-line role, and that will continue to give him RB2 value in fantasy. With Gibbs running hotter, this will likely be more of a committee backfield moving forward.

The thing is, Montgomery was running really well before his injuries. His advanced metrics on a per carry basis (3.02 yards after contact | 0.37 missed tackles forced) are just as sterling as Gibbs (2.74 YAC | 0.36 MTF).

There is a good chance that Gibbs gets more early-down work in addition to his already ridiculous receiving upside. Zooming out… Only Alvin Kamara (8.2) and Austin Ekeler (5.6) are averaging more targets per game than Gibbs (5.5) among RBs.

Ultimately, you’re playing both this week. The Lions have the 4th-highest implied point total (25.8).

Sit ‘Em

Quinten Johnston – Co-led the team in routes (36) with Keenan Allen last week. However, Johnston continues to not earn targets. Since Mike Williams was lost for the season (knee), Johnston ranks 79th-of-96 WRs in targets per route run (0.13). He’s 83rd in yards per route (0.86). Not great, Bob! Jaylen Guyton will work as the third WR again.

Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams – This is such a strong spot for the Lions pass game and Goff, however, it’s hard to get excited about anyone other than St. Brown and LaPorta. In their four games before the bye, Reynolds ran a route on 65% of the pass plays and earned a putrid 0.11 targets per route run. Jameson Williams remained a part-timer, running a route on 39% of the plays in Weeks 8-9. The Lions traded for Donovan Peoples-Jones at the deadline to give them one more WR to rotate in. DPJ is questionable with a ribs injury.

Gerald Everett – Split routes (21) with Donald Parham (14) last week.

Jets at Raiders (SNF)

Must Start

Breece Hall – Las Vegas is allowing 4.31 YPC (8th-most), and after taking out scrambles, only the Broncos (136.3) and Panthers (129.4) are allowing more rushing yards per game than the Raiders (123.9).

Start ‘Em

Garrett Wilson – His quarterback and playcaller are the worst in the league, but all he does is get open. Literally the only thing the Jets are doing right is feeding Wilson when they throw. He has 7 or more targets in seven straight games, and he’s averaging 73.6 yards on 10.3 targets per contest in this stretch. Wilson leads all players in first-read target share (42.9%) by a small margin over AJ Brown (41.6%).

Josh Jacobs – After cleaning house on Halloween night, the Raiders played like a newly energized squad against the Giants. Josh Jacobs continued his upward trend as Las Vegas’ first order of business was to load him up with a season-high 26 carries (98 yards, 2 TDs). No team ran the ball at a higher rate above expectation (+10.3%) than the Raiders in Week 9. By expected fantasy points per game, Jacobs is the RB4 (18.5 XFP Half-PPR), trailing only Kamara (22.3), McCaffrey (19.5), and Barkley (19.3).

FLEX Plays

Davante Adams – It’s unbelievable we’re to this point with a player of his pedigree. Since hammering the Steelers for 13/172/2 in Week 3, Adams has not finished higher than WR23 in six straight games. The good news is that Adams’ market share stats are terrific in O’Connell’s two starts (31.3% target share | 47.1% air yards share). The bad news is that this is the worst possible matchup with CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed playing shutdown coverage on the perimeter. Opposing outside receivers are being held to a league-low -10.1 schedule-adjusted FP per game below average against the Jets. They are the only secondary yet to allow a TD to a boundary WR.

Sit ‘Em

Jakobi Meyers – In two starts with O’Connell, Meyers has earned 0.16 targets per route run. That’s a massive drop-off compared to when Jimmy Garoppolo was under center (0.27 TPRR).

Zach Wilson – The Jets have scored a TD on just 8.2% of their possessions, and they’re averaging just 22 yards gained per drive. Both figures are league lows.

Aidan O’Connell – Fire up Jets D/ST. Raiders stud LT Kolton Miller (shoulder) is likely out.

Michael Mayer

Tyler Conklin

Allen Lazard

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.