The Everything Report: 2023 Week 14


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The Everything Report: 2023 Week 14

Hello, and welcome to “The Week 14 Everything Report,” formerly known as “the Usage Report” or “the XFP Report,” but for you long-time readers, it’s the exact same article with a different name. If you’re unfamiliar with XFP, I’ll get to that in a little bit.

What is this article?

If you’re new to this article… every week, we will tell you which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, most often measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). We’ll be telling you who the best buy-low and sell-high candidates are, typically measured by Points Above Replacement (PAR), or the differential between actual- and expected fantasy points. This is an especially effective approach in DFS, where players are typically priced by production rather than volume, though PAR will regress to the mean. And (at the end of the article) we’re going to be telling you who the best volume-per-dollar DFS plays are.

What is XFP?

You can access our complete XFP database (which includes other advanced stats like air yards, deep targets, and end-zone targets) here.

Expected fantasy points (XFP) is flat-out the best and most comprehensive way of measuring a player’s volume. It’s telling you – based on a player’s unique usage – how many fantasy points that player should have scored. It’s telling you how many fantasy points a perfectly league-average RB, WR, or TE would have scored with that same exact volume. It looks at every individual carry by down and distance and distance from the end zone and every individual target by depth of target and distance from the end zone, and then cross-references each carry and target to each carry and target with those specific qualifiers over a multi-year sample to tell you what exactly those carries and targets are worth (historically).

Expected touchdowns (XTD), same thing. RBs score from the one-yard line on 54% of their attempts. RBs score from the 17-yard line only 3.6% of the time. So why ever use “red zone carries,” which treats both carries the same, as a fantasy stat? I have no idea.

Why doesn’t everyone point to XFP in their fantasy research? I have no idea. Once you have XFP and XTD, you can contrast that with a player’s actual fantasy points or actual touchdown total to tell you how efficient a player has been (PAR). This is especially useful in highlighting regression candidates, buy-low targets, and mispriced players for DFS.

Through 13 weeks of action, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:

The Top 30 XFP Leaders

14 Things to Know

1. The Dallas Cowboys’ juggernaut pass offense keeps steamrolling.

Dallas has looked like two completely different teams since their Week 7 bye. Before their bye, they were the 8th-most run-heavy offense in football (-1.2%) as measured by pass rate over expectation (PROE), and they ranked bottom-15 in points per drive. Since their bye, they’ve become the single most pass-heavy offense in football (+10.5%) and they lead the league in points per drive.

Over this span, Prescott has hit at least 28.0 DK fantasy points in 5 of 6 games, averaging a position-best 30.9 DK FPG (+2.2 more than the next-closest QB, Josh Allen). Only one player over this span averages more DK FPG – Prescott’s favorite receiver, CeeDee Lamb with 31.3.

Lamb has hit at least 16.5 DK fantasy points in 7 straight games, and his 17 targets last week were a career-high. Add in the 4 end zone targets, 6 red zone targets, and 2 carries he earned, and he totaled 37.4 XFP – the most by any player in any game over the last three seasons.

While on this tear, Tony Pollard has finally started to produce in line with his XFP. He’s found the end zone in three straight games, averaging 19.2 FPG (RB6) and out-scoring his XFP by 2.1 FPG. Before this point, Pollard ranked as fantasy’s RB23 (12.7), falling short of his XFP by an almost league-worst 4.6 FPG.

Since Week 10, Brandin Cooks ranks 14th in FPG (18.3). But he’s cleared 5 targets in only 1 of these 4 games, and ranks just 47th in XFP/G (10.0). This makes him look like a massive negative regression candidate, but then again, that probably wouldn’t be true if Prescott continues to play at an MVP level.

Right now, it’s looking very likely that a Dak Prescott- and/or CeeDee Lamb-owner is going to win your league’s fantasy championship. Of course, maybe not, as Dallas’ schedule toughens up to a considerable degree over their next three games. But that does seem like the most likely outcome. Or at least they’ll be battling it out against a C.J. Stroud- and/or Nico Collins-owner.

2. It’s party time for Chris Olave.

Across Olave’s last eight full quarters of work, he totals 25 targets, 18 catches, 327 yards, and a touchdown. Or, in other words, he’s averaging (per-four-quarters over this span): 12.5 targets, 9.0 catches, 163.5 yards, and 28.4 fantasy points. Prior to this hot streak, Olave was averaging just 59.3 yards and 12.4 fantasy points per four quarters.

He’s clearly benefited from injuries to Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, further condensing targets in his direction. And I think he’ll further benefit from an injury to QB Derek Carr. (Carr seems unlikely to play this week, dealing with concussion, shoulder, and back injuries.)

The Saints are averaging 36.8 pass attempts per game. With Winston this year, Olave has a 36% target share, and he’s averaging 23.9 fantasy points per 36.8 pass attempts. With Carr, those numbers drop to just 24% and then 13.5 fantasy points.

If New Orleans does the right thing and starts Winston the rest of the way, I could easily see Olave becoming one of the primary league winners of the 2023 season.

3. The best DFS cheat code in years: Play at least one Texans WR on every single GPP lineup you enter.

As effective as this cheat code has been (we wrote at length about this last week), it should be even more potent now, following Tank Dell’s season-ending injury, which should further condense targets.

Now, without Dell (and also possibly Dalton Schultz for another week or two), Nico Collins becomes the clear WR1 of this offense, and also probably a WR1 for fantasy. Across the full season, Collins ranks 3rd in YPRR (3.20), behind only Tyreek Hill (4.50) and Brandon Aiyuk (3.26). He also ranks 10th in FPG (17.6), despite ranking just 20th in XFP/G (14.6) and only running a route on 71.9% of the team’s dropbacks.

And his performance last week couldn’t be any more encouraging. He caught 9 of 12 targets for 191 yards (5th-most by any player in any game this year) and a touchdown. But not only that, he accounted for an obscene 65% of the team’s passing yards on a 43% target share. And, perhaps, better yet – he amassed 81 of receiving yards on 15 routes against the league’s best CB Patrick Surtain (5.40 YPRR).

Again, he should immediately be viewed as – at worst – a low-end WR1 for fantasy. And he’s probably going to wind up as one of the most valuable players you could have drafted this past offseason.

But let’s not sleep on Noah Brown, who offers underrated potential as Houston’s clear No. 2 WR. Brown did nothing on his 2 targets last week – but he did run 11 more routes than any other non-Collins WR (74% route share). And, remember, he was barely healthy enough to play in this game. Prior to this, he led Houston’s receivers in receiving yards in each of his last 3 games (his only 3 full or fully healthy games this year). But it’s even more impressive than that – he gained 153 receiving yards in Week 9, and then 172 in Week 10. Across the full season, only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb have more games with 150-plus receiving yards, and Brown has only played in 3 fully healthy games.

Whenever Dalton Schultz returns to full health, he should probably be viewed as a mid-range TE1 at worst. Over his last 7 games (but excluding Week 12 due to injury), Schultz was averaging 14.5 FPG, which would rank 3rd-most among all TEs if over the full season. While Schultz is out, Brevin Jordan can offer fringe-TE1 value.

4. Trey McBride is yet another awesome DFS cheat code.

Last week, Kyler Murray attempted just 23 passes for 145 yards in a game Arizona led 24-3 until garbage time. McBride accounted for 39% of those passes (he had 6 more targets than any other Cardinals receiver) and an astounding 61% of Murray’s yards.

Since Zach Ertz first went down, McBride has been putting up fringe-WR1 numbers across the board. And until DraftKings stops pricing him as just a high-end WR3, I’m going to keep jamming him into my DFS lineups.

But McBride isn’t the only tight end who would qualify for this perceived market inefficiency:

  • On this week’s DraftKings slate, George Kittle is priced as the WR23. Over his last 10 games, he averages 17.8 DK FPG, which would rank 10th-best among all slate-eligible WRs.

  • Dalton Kincaid is priced as the WR30. Over his last 6 games, he averages 14.3 DK FPG, which would rank 19th-best among all slate-eligible WRs.

All this to say, “TE in the flex” has never been a more viable strategy on DraftKings.

5. The San Francisco offense is awesome but also insanely frustrating for DFS players to get right:

The 49ers lead the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5) by a wide margin (next-closest is Miami at 8.7). They also rank 2nd in yards per play (6.9) and points per drive (2.74).

Brock Purdy leads all QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.64) – by far the best efficiency metric for fantasy QBs – but because San Francisco is never really pushed to score points (their games aren’t all that competitive), he’s averaging only 30.8 dropbacks per game (48% less than Sam Howell), and thus ranks just 7th in FPG (19.7).

The Purdy skeptics and haters will say he’s just a product of the Kyle Shanahan system and an elite supporting cast. And, while that’s definitely true, Purdy also happens to be good at the game.

But because you have a hyper-efficient offense (without much volume) and a bunch of hyper-talented fantasy superstars, it makes picking between them in DFS a very difficult task. (Well, after Christian McCaffrey, who should be viewed as a top-2 fantasy option every single week.)

In the 8 games in which Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle have all played on 10 or more snaps:

In these games, you can see targets are spread fairly evenly among the three of them. And none are standing out by way of XFP – Aiyuk’s team-high 11.4 XFP would rank 45th among all WRs if over the full season. But that hasn’t really slowed any of them down either. Aiyuk's 17.6 FPG would rank 10th among all WRs, Samuel's 16.1 FPG would rank 16th, and Kittle's 12.5 FPG would rank 5th among all TEs.

So who should you target in DFS this week? Truthfully, I have no idea. You might be better off rolling a custom-made 3-sided die.

6. De’Von Achane is a freak.

Achane has played in only 4 games in which he exceeded 7 snaps. In those games, he’s averaging 1553 YFS and 31.8 FPG. He’s doing this on just 13.5 carries (9.78 YPC), 3.5 targets, and 15.1 XFP/G.

In other words, he’s easily one of the biggest negative regression candidates we’ve seen in some time, exceeding his volume-based expectation by 16.7 FPG.

Yes, he’s a massive regression candidate, but I’m not really treating him as such. Because Achane might just be the 2017 version of Alvin Kamara, or he might be Chris Johnson reincarnated (CJ2K2.0?). Both players were all-time outliers, but perhaps Achane already qualifies for that distinction. Although it never feels wise to be betting on a player being an outlier, those are the bets you want to be making, because outliers in fantasy football are the players who are routinely swinging fantasy leagues.

7. Kyren Williams is the new Todd Gurley, and the 2nd-most valuable RB in fantasy after Christian McCaffrey.

Christian McCaffrey is the closest thing we’ve seen to LaDainian Tomlinson since LaDainian Tomlinson. And the only other RB who comes close is probably peak-Todd Gurley (2017-2018). And while Kyren Williams isn’t quite peak Todd Gurley, nor is he 2023 Christian McCaffrey, but he’s not too far off either. Which is to say, he’s a highest-end bell cow – he handled 98% of the team’s backfield XFP last week on 95% of the team’s snaps last week – and an easy top-3 fantasy RB moving forward.

In 8 games, Williams ranks 1st in snap share (82.1%), 3rd in XFP/G (20.1), 1st in red zone XFP/G (7.9), and 3rd in FPG (21.2).

8. Zack Moss is a mid-range RB1 until Jonathan Taylor returns (ETA: Week 16-17).

Moss flopped as DFS chalk last week, scoring only 7.7 fantasy points. But his usage almost couldn’t have been better. He played on 64 of 68 snaps (94%), handling 19 of 19 carries and 2 of 5 targets out of the backfield. His 64 snaps were the 5th-most of any RB in any week this season, and he’s now the only RB with at least two such games this year. And although Moss failed to find the end zone, he had a league-high 8 opportunities inside the 10-yard line (7 carries, 1 target). But I say “almost couldn’t have been better” because he only saw 2 of 5 targets out of the backfield. That’s certainly unideal, but he did run 24 routes to all other Colts RBs’ 4 routes. So it also seems a little flukey as well.

In a neutral matchup against the Bengals, I’d be starting Moss as a top-5 option this week.

9. Rachaad White is Mr. Consistency.

White has finished as a top-13 RB by DK fantasy points scored in 7 straight games – although, to be fully transparent, he’s finished top-9 only once (Week 9, when he led the position in fantasy points).

Over this span, he ranks as the RB4 by FPG (18.6) and the RB3 by XFP/G (17.9).

And well, that’s the power of a bell cow workload. Since Week 7, White ranks 3rd in snap share (80.8%), 3rd in carries (106), 4th in targets (34), and 4th in red zone XFP (33.1). When you’re never coming off of the field and you’re as highly involved in the passing game as White is, a lot disadvantages stop being all that significant – such as negative gamescript, a bad offensive line, tough matchups, etc. (Remember, targets are worth 2.53 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues.) All of those things are going to cap his weekly-upside, but because of his snap share and passing game involvement, he’s going to remain one of the most week-to-week consistent RBs in fantasy.

10. Mike Evans is pretty obviously still a fantasy WR1 in his 10th career season.

Last week Baker Mayfield threw for 202 passing yards. Mike Evans accounted for a whopping 162 of those passing yards (80.2%).

If excluding just one game Evans exited early with an injury, he averages 19.6 FPG (~WR5) and 18.1 XFP/G (~WR9). Over the last four weeks, Evans ranks 4th in target share (32.1%), 4th in FPG (24.0), and 4th in XFP/G (21.6).

Falcons CB A.J. Terrell suffered a concussion in last week’s game. If he sits out this week (which seems fairly likely), Evans’ Week 14 matchup would shift from bottom-5 to top-10.

11. I would commit heinous crimes for Joe Flacco — AKA, Elijah Moore is back.

Moore’s volume with Flacco last week was legitimately insane. He earned 12 targets (2X as much as the next-closest Browns receiver) and a career-high 257 air yards (also the most of any WR in any game this season), good for 26.7 XFP, which ranked 2nd-most of any WR on the week.

Moore has played in six career games in which Joe Flacco was the starting QB. Moore has now seen 12, 10, 9, 7, 5, and 1 (meaningless Week 18 game) targets in those games. Excluding that one meaningless Week 18 game, Moore averages 133.2 air yards, 8.6 targets, 72.6 receiving yards, 17.3 XFP/G, and 13.4 FPG with Flacco. In contrast to his average in all other games, we should essentially be applying a 1.5X to 2.0X multiplier to all of these numbers when Flacco is starting.

Nerdy reference you’re not going to get: Joe Flacco is the light ball to Elijah Moore’s Pikachu.

Ultimately, we probably shouldn’t get too excited here. Moore still wasn’t very productive, scoring just 12.3 fantasy points. (Although it could have been a monster day if 7 of Moore's 12 targets weren't uncatchable.) And Moore’s good volume was definitely inflated by an injury to Amari Cooper, which caused him to miss the last 2.5 quarters of the game. (Cooper had a 33% target share prior to injury.)


12. The Rashee Rice breakout is finally upon us.

Rashee Rice has hit a season-high in route share in back-to-back games. He still has yet to run a route on over two-thirds of the team’s dropbacks in any single game, but hey, at least we’re trending in the right direction.

Rice has led the team in targets in each of the last two weeks, totaling 19, which is 7 more than the next-closest Chiefs receiver (Travis Kelce), and 13 more than the next-closest Chiefs WR (Marquez Valdes-Scantling). Over this span – on just a 65% route share – Rice ranks 10th among all WRs in target share (28.4%), as well as 3rd in catches (16) and 9th in yards (171).

Across the full season, Rice ranks 10th among 106-qualifying WRs in YPRR (2.67). The other qualifying Chiefs WRs rank 60th, 89th, and 95th. Essentially, Rice isn’t just the only competent WR on the team, he’s objectively been great. With Rice seemingly supplanting an older, more-hobbled, less-dominant Travis Kelce in terms of target volume over the last few weeks, or at least now that Rice is actually seeing good target volume, I’m very open to the possibility that Rice could be a meaningful contributor to your team throughout your playoff run. And possibly even a 2023 league winner.

13. The touchdown regression hit D.K. Metcalf like a sack of bricks, but don’t sleep on Seattle’s other WRs.

D.K. Metcalf stole the show in Week 13, catching 6 of 8 targets for 134 yards and 3 touchdowns. (80% of Metcalf’s yards came on just 7 routes against CB Daron Bland, who ranks 13th-worst of 95-qualifying CBs in yards allowed per snap in coverage.)

Tyler Lockett’s production was less encouraging (5-47-0) but he tied Metcalf in targets (8). And across the full season, Lockett averages only 0.5 fewer XFP/G. The regression finally hit for Metcalf – his big Week 13 brought his PAR up from -1.9 to +0.1 – but now Lockett is also due. And like with Metcalf, it’s mostly poor touchdown luck dragging his numbers down. Lockett ranks 10th among all receivers in end zone targets (11), but he’s hauled in only 2 of those targets for touchdowns; the WRs ahead of him on this last average 5.4 touchdowns on end zone targets.

Metcalf stole the show in Week 13, but I came away even more excited about rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He earned 11 targets (3 more than Metcalf and Lockett) and totaled 25.4 XFP (6th-most of any WR on the week). Since Week 9, JSN’s 22 catches are tied with Metcalf and are only 2 less than Lockett. Following the game, HC Pete Carroll had this to say:

JSN’s usage is much different now than it was in the first half of the season – which is typically how things go for rookie WRs. As Carroll alluded to, he ran 50% of his routes from the perimeter last week (up from 26%), and his air yards per game have jumped to 69.7 YPG over the last three weeks (up from 22.9). Ultimately, I think his upside is capped working in an offense alongside two stud WRs, and on an offense that typically (or at least when Kenneth Walker is fully healthy) leans very run-heavy. But I wouldn’t be surprised if JSN puts up starter-worthy production throughout the remainder of the season.

14. Other Injury News / Notes

Other Injury News / Notes

  • Christian Watson suffered (yet another) hamstring injury in last week’s game. This is pretty depressing for myself and all other Watson owners, as he was finally starting to heat up – he averaged 8.0 targets and 23.8 FPG over his last 2 games. But this is good news for Green Bay’s other WRs… The Packers have been deploying a gross 4-way committee when all of their WRs are healthy– last week, no WR ran a route on more than two-thirds of the team’s dropbacks. But in Week 12, when Dontayvion Wicks was out, Romeo Doubs’ route share jumped to 85% (up from 73% since Watson returned) and Jayden Reed’s route share jumped to 79% (up from 59%). And there really might be some starter-worthy upside here, given how well Jordan Love has played of late – he ranks 5th in FPG since Week 10 (22.5) – and how great the other WRs have looked on a per-route-basis. Among 145 qualifying WRs, Jayden Reed ranks 17th in FP/RR (0.50), while Romeo Doubs ranks 36th (0.41), and Wicks ranks 41st (0.40).

  • Cardinals RB Emari Demercado played on just 2 snaps before getting ruled out for the remainder of the game due to a neck injury. This – alongside positive blowout gamescript – helped thrust James Conner into a full-on bell cow workload, that led to him finishing the week as fantasy’s RB5 (22.5) on the 8th-best volume of any RB (20.0)… After earning just 62% of the backfield XFP in Week 12, that jumped to 83% last week. I think the middle ground between those two figures is what we should expect from Conner moving forward, but I definitely wouldn’t expect production like this every week. Given Conner’s 6.3% target share, I suspect he’ll remain heavily gamescript-sensitive, and then even in games with terrific gamescript, we have to worry about Kyler Murray’s propensity to vulture touchdowns at the goal line.

  • Despite getting ejected late in the fourth quarter, Isiah Pacheco played on 69% of the team’s snaps, earning 18 of 20 carries and 4 of 6 targets out of the backfield. Over the last two weeks – without Jerick McKinnon – Pacheco is averaging 22.8 XFP/G (most of any RB over this span) and 23.6 FPG (3rd-most). His snap share has jumped to 74% (up from 57%) and his target share jumped to 13.4% (up from 7.6%). If McKinnon sits out again this week, I’d be viewing Pacheco as a low-end RB1 at worst.

  • Due to injury, Puka Nacua ran only 19 routes in Week 13. But on those routes, he caught 4 of 7 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown (5.53 YPRR). As banged up as Nacua might be heading into Week 14, I have far more confidence in his health/ability than Cooper Kupp. Since Week 7, Kupp ranks 9th-worst of 56-qualifying WRs in YPRR (1.05), just slightly ahead of Jonathan Mingo (1.01) and Quentin Johnston (0.99). Over the same span, Nacua ranks 5th-best (2.71).

  • Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is going to be out for a while. Although Mitchell Trubisky clearly favored Diontae Johnson last year, he’s spread the ball around a lot more this season. In the 2 games Johnson played, he’s earned a target share of just 15.9% (~WR50). That ranks best of any Pittsburgh receiver, better than George Pickens’ 11.0%, but well behind (collectively) the RBs (27%) and TEs (25%).

  • Brian Robinson suffered a hamstring injury early in the second quarter of last week’s game and never returned. From that point on (trailing by double-digits throughout), Antonio Gibson played on 69% of the team’s snaps handling 8 of 15 carries, 12 of 12 routes, and 4 of 4 targets out of the backfield. Chris Rodriguez earned 7 carries… For however long Robinson sits out (likely 2-3 weeks)%20XX)), I’d guess Rodriguez leads the team in carries while Gibson leads the backfield in targets. Or in other words, I wouldn’t view either RB as a potential fantasy starter.

  • Rhamondre Stevenson left last week’s game early with a hamstring injury. From the 2nd quarter on, Ezekiel Elliott played on 40 of 43 snaps (93%), earning 16 of 16 carries and 5 of 5 targets out of the backfield. For clarity, this is highest-end bell cow usage, akin to only Kyren Williams and no one else. So, in spite of New England’s ineptitude and their 17.25-point implied total, as well as the fact that Elliott might be fully cooked. I think we have no choice but to view Elliott as a mid-range RB2 this week.

  • Derrick Henry left last week’s game early in the fourth quarter with a head injury. From that point on, Tyjae Spears played on 30 of 31 snaps, handling 11 carries and 3 targets (18.8%). Henry played in three full quarters, and Spears still ended the week ranked 9th among all RBs in XFP (19.8). It sounds like Henry is going to be fine (he’s not in the concussion protocol), but this is precisely what Spears needs to be rostered in all formats; he’d be a highest-end bell cow in any game Henry sits out.

  • Without both Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard targeted Evan Engram on 6 of his 14 throws (42%). No other Jacksonville player was targeted more than twice.

  • Josh Allen hit season-highs in both scrambles (5) and designed runs (4) in his last game before the bye. His 81 rushing yards that week were not only a season-high but also represented his only game over 46 rushing yards all year. For perspective, he eclipsed that mark 9 times last season… Hopefully, new OC Joe Brady is going to continue to encourage Allen to use his legs, unlike Ken Dorsey, who discouraged him from doing so. And this could hint at some sort of impossible upside for Allen, who already leads the league in FPG (25.0), despite seeing a 37% decrease in rushing attempts per game (versus his numbers across the previous three seasons).

  • Russell Wilson is averaging 8.0 rushing attempts per game since Week 8 (up from 3.2 per game). This ranks behind only Jalen Hurts (9.4) and Lamar Jackson (8.6) over this span. That’s encouraging, but it hasn’t amounted to much production (3.5 YPC). And it’s probably not enough to start viewing him as a top-12 option, given that he averages just 171.4 passing YPG since Week 5 (33rd-most).

Running Backs
  • Chuba Hubbard has quietly cleared 20.0 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Panthers rank as the 4th-most run-heavy offense by PROE over the last three weeks (-7.7%). And Hubbard’s involvement within the backfield has increased in three straight games: 50% share of the team’s backfield XFP > 61% > 73%… 3 of Hubbard’s 4 best-volume games (as measured by XFP) have come in games OC Thomas Brown was calling the plays, and Brown has only called plays in 4 games this season. With Brown, Hubbard averages 15.4 XFP/G (~RB12) with a 66% share of the team’s backfield XFP. Without Brown, that falls to 9.1 XFP/G (~RB45) and 44%… I’m viewing Hubbard as a low-end RB2 this week, in a bottom-12 matchup against the Saints.

  • Dameon Pierce did Dameon Pierce things in Week 13. In a game Houston led throughout (ideal gamescript), Pierce bested Devin Singletary by XFP (9.1 to 7.9), but he averaged just 2.7 YPC on 15 carries. (Keep in mind, that was 2.7 YPC against the league’s worst run defense.)… It’s probably best to just avoid this backfield from here on out. But Singletary could be somewhat fantasy-viable in games Houston is expected to trail.

  • Since suffering an ankle injury in Week 1, Austin Ekeler is averaging just 41.1 rushing YPG (high of 67) and 2.99 YPC. Even through the air, he’s averaging just 3.3 catches and 30.4 receiving YPG. And the metrics might not even be as ugly as his tape… Until he shows me something to convince me otherwise, I’ll be viewing him as a touchdown-reliant low-end RB1 moving forward.

  • David Montgomery has scored 10 rushing touchdowns in 9 games, failing to find the end zone in only one of these games. Since he returned from injury in Week 10, he ranks 12th in FPG (15.8), just slightly behind Jahmyr Gibbs, who ranks 9th (16.4). That said, Gibbs has a much larger edge in XFP/G (ranking 9th to Montgomery’s 29th)… When you’re forced to choose between these two options in DFS, favor Gibbs in negative gamescripts – when trailing over this span, Gibbs has handled 23.4% of the team’s XFP to Montgomery’s 10.8%.

  • Breece Hall has failed to eclipse 25 rushing yards in 4 straight games. And now Dalvin Cook is mixing in more – earning 9 carries last week to Hall’s 13. The good news is that Hall is still heavily involved in the passing game, earning 6, 9, and then 8 targets over his last 3 games. Over this span, he ranks 9th in XFP/G (16.5) but just 17th in FPG (13.6). I’ll be viewing him as a mid-range RB2 this week.

  • Najee Harris handled 64% of Pittsburgh’s backfield XFP last week (most since Week 7). And this came in a game Pittsburgh trailed throughout (gamescript that should be better suited toward Jaylen Warren).

  • Weirdly, Travis Etienne hit a season-high in XFP last week (25.2), despite a near season-low 62.3% snap share. Since Week 10, Etienne has played on 63% of the team’s snaps (down from 81%), earning a 50% carry share (down from 64%) and a 12.1% target share (up from 10.9%).

  • Not much about James Cook’s usage has changed since new OC Joe Brady took over. And in fact, some things have gotten worse – for instance, his snap share has dropped from 56% to 45%. But his usage has improved in one significant way – Cook has played on 86% of the team’s snaps inside the 10-yard-line over the last two weeks, up from 29%. And this could be a massive boost for Cook, considering that the Bills rank 4th in offensive touchdowns (38). For instance, despite the snap share decline, Cook ranks 6th in XFP/G (17.4) and 9th in FPG (17.6) over the last three weeks.

  • I came away mildly encouraged by Javonte Williams’ usage in Week 13. He played on 66% of the team’s snaps (3rd-most of the season for Williams) – in a game Denver trailed throughout – but he still handled only 51% of the team’s backfield XFP. As I’ve been saying for multiple weeks now, Williams is massively gamescript-sensitive. He should be viewed as a low-end RB1 in games we should expect Denver to win decisively, but he should be faded (at least for DFS purposes) in all other scenarios.

  • Prior to their bye… In a game the Ravens won by 10 points, Keaton Mitchell hit a season-high 46.4% snap share, while Gus Edwards’ snap share fell to 26.1% (down from 47.3% over his previous two games).

Wide Receivers
  • TE Dallas Goedert should be back this week, which should benefit A.J. Brown at the expense of DeVonta Smith.
  • The absence of Dawson Knox has been great for Dalton Kincaid, but it’s seemingly sapped Stefon Diggs of some of his upside. WRs are notably more efficient in 12 personnel than 11 personnel (due to lesser target competition), and that’s also been the case for Diggs, who has been twice as efficient in 12 personnel this year. Through the first 7 weeks of the season (with Kincaid), Buffalo ran 12 personnel 36.6% of the time. Since then, that’s fallen to just 1.4%.
  • Over Justin Fields’ last 6 full games, D.J. Moore has scored (counting backward) 25.4, 22.6, 52.0, 30.1, 13.1, and 19.4 DK fantasy points. That comes out to 27.1 DK FPG, or 32.5 DK FPG over his last 4… He’s easily one of the best DFS values of the week, priced as just the WR16 on DraftKings ($6,500).
  • Justin Jefferson has been activated off injured reserve and is expected to make his return in Week 14. Across Josh Dobbs’ 4 games with the Vikings, T.J. Hockenson averaged 18.1 XFP/G and 17.5 FPG. Not only did both numbers lead all TEs over this stretch, but they ranked 8th- and 13th-best among all WRs. So I suppose, if Hockenson could do that with Dobbs, I don’t know why we shouldn’t still be viewing Jefferson as a fantasy WR1.

  • In 8 starts with Gardner Minshew, Michael Pittman is averaging 11.0 targets (~WR2), 18.5 XFP/G (~WR5), and 18.8 FPG (~WR7). He’s priced as just the WR10 on DraftKings this week ($7,300).

  • Tyreek Hill might be the MVP of your fantasy league, as well as the MVP of the National Football League. [1, 2]

  • Who is the Washington Commanders’ WR1? Consider this… Across the 10 games Curtis Samuel played in full (excluding one game he was ejected and one game he left early due to injury), Samuel averaged a team-high 11.4 FPG. In these games, Terry McLaurin averages 10.3, Logan Thomas averages 8.1, and Jahan Dotson averages 6.1.

  • Through the first 8 weeks of the season, Adam Thielen ranked 7th among all WRs in FPG (20.2). But it might be wise to forget that ever happened. Since then, he ranks just 51st in FPG (8.0). And over the last two weeks, Jonathan Mingo has 4.7X as many receiving yards, while also out-targeting Theilen 16 to 9.

  • Demario Douglas has seen 6 > 7 > 7 > 9 > 9 targets over his last 5 games. And keep in mind, Douglas missed every offensive play for the Patriots in the 4th quarter of his last game. He’s been the lone bright spot for this otherwise totally inept offense that now also lost their RB1. If he returns this week (from a concussion), I’d be viewing him as a low-end WR3.

  • Davante Adams is actually showing some real signs of life following Aidan O’Connell’s promotion to starting QB. Adams has eclipsed 70 receiving yards in three straight games, after falling short of that mark in 5 straight. And it’s notable he’s done this in spite of some especially brutal matchups – L’Jarious Sneed’s shadow coverage in Week 12 and the Jets in Week 10.

  • Since Week 8, Odell Beckham Jr. ranks behind only Tyreek Hill in XFP/RR (0.64) and has exactly as many targets as Zay Flowers over this span (on only 55% as many routes). That’s encouraging, but OBJ is still far from being a startable fantasy asset because his route share has fluctuated wildly over this span: 63% (shoulder) to 55% (shoulder) to 37% (knee) to 49% (shoulder) to 41% last week (shoulder). The glimmer of hope (hinting at legitimately terrific upside) is that these capped route shares may have all been injury-related, and perhaps now he’s fully healthy after the team’s bye. I’d be betting against that personally, but you never know.

  • If not for one bad drop, there’s a chance we’d all be talking about Quentin Johnston as though he might be on the verge of a second-half resurgence. Last week, Johnston caught 5 of 7 targets for 52 yards, falling just 2 targets and 6 yards shy of Keenan Allen for team-highs in all three categories. And if not for one bad drop, he would have walked away with (at least) 69 receiving yards. Of course, much has been made of that bad drop, and Johnston’s stone hands, but I think that narrative has been a little overblown. Both Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus have credited Johnston with exactly 2 drops all year… I mean, don’t get me wrong here. He’s definitely looking like a bust, and our expectations throughout the remainder of the second half should be low (and they are). I’m just saying there’s a chance.

Tight Ends
  • I know we’ve all forgotten Kyle Pitts still exists at this point, but I think he’s a genuinely exciting DFS punt this week, priced as just the TE11 on DraftKings ($3,700). Last week, Pitts earned a season-high 29.6% target share on an almost-season-high 86.7% route share. Across his previous four games, he averaged a 14.0% target share on a 57.4% route share.

  • Last week, Sam LaPorta caught 9 of 9 targets for 140 yards and a score. His 36% target share was a season-high (5th-most by any TE in any game this year) and his 66% yardage share was the most by any TE in any game this year. LaPorta currently ranks 3rd among all TEs in FPG (14.3), which would also rank 2nd-most by any rookie TE all-time (behind only Mike Ditka).

  • Isaiah Likely earned a 69.4% route share in his last game (2nd-most on the team, tied with Rashod Bateman), catching 4 of 5 targets (2nd-most on the team) for a team-high 40 yards. This was an encouraging performance, but after an underwhelming Week 1, I’m not yet ready to view Likely as a top-12 option.

Top Regression Candidates

DraftKings XFP Values

1. Garrett Wilson, WR (3.2X)

2. Zay Jones, WR (3.0X)

3. David Njoku, TE (3.0X)

4. Tutu Atwell, WR (2.9X)

5. Jonathan Mingo, WR (2.9X)

6. Elijah Moore, WR (2.8X)

7. Kyle Pitts, TE (2.7X)

8. T.J. Hockenson, TE (2.7X)

9. Tyler Conklin, TE (2.6X)

10. Alexander Mattison, RB (2.6X)

Minimum Fantasy Points Lost Due to Defensive Pass Interference + Fantasy Points Negated by Penalty

1. A.J. Brown, WR (43.3)

2. Calvin Ridley, WR (37.8)

3. Courtland Sutton, WR (36.0)

4. Trevor Lawrence, QB (31.2)

5. Tyler Lockett, WR (29.1)

6. Jaylen Waddle, WR (28.7)

7. Justin Herbert, QB (28.4)

8. Tua Tagovailoa, QB (27.7)

9. C.J. Stroud, QB (27.7)

10. Tutu Atwell, WR (25.6)

XFP Team Market Share

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB (30.6%)

2. Saquon Barkley, RB (28.3%)

3. Garrett Wilson, WR (27.2%)

4. Tyreek Hill, WR (26.3%)

5. Keenan Allen, WR (26.1%)

6. Josh Jacobs, RB (25.7%)

7. A.J. Brown, WR (25.7%)

8. Alvin Kamara, RB (25.6%)

9. Ja’Marr Chase, WR (25.1%)

10. Davante Adams, WR (24.9%)

Backfield XFP Market Share

1. Joe Mixon, RB (86.7%)

2. Saquon Barkley, RB (82.1%)

3. Josh Jacobs, RB (80.5%)

4. Alvin Kamara, RB (79.4%)

5. Kyren Williams, RB (78.5%)

6. Rachaad White, RB (78.0%)

7. Austin Ekeler, RB (77.8%)

8. Christian McCaffrey, RB (75.2%)

9. Travis Etienne, RB (74.4%)

10. James Conner, RB (69.1%)

XFP per Team Play

1. Justin Jefferson, WR (0.322)

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB (0.320)

3. Keenan Allen, WR (0.320)

4. Tyreek Hill, WR (0.310)

5. Ja’Marr Chase, QB (0.295)

6. Alvin Kamara, RB (0.294)

7. Josh Jacobs, RB (0.289)

8. CeeDee Lamb, WR (0.287)

9. Garrett Wilson, WR (0.285)

10. Davante Adams, WR (0.280)

Scott Barrett combines a unique background in philosophy and investing alongside a lifelong love of football and spreadsheets to serve as Fantasy Points’ Chief Executive Officer.