We made it!
The last NFL game for seven months is an exciting rematch of Super Bowl LIV. Patrick Mahomes was held relatively in check until a 4th quarter, 3-TD flood erased a 20-10 49ers lead. Unfortunately, the near miss on a deep bomb from Jimmy Garoppolo to Emmanuel Sanders has been etched in 49ers fans' heads for four years. Redemption is in sight.
Mahomes is chasing his third ring already, and Tom Brady is the only thing that got in between a potential fourth. The Chiefs will absolutely “settle” for 3-of-4. As always, all of the stats in this article are from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools.
To our incredible subscribers – thank you for another great season. Let’s do it again in September.
San Francisco
Brock Purdy
1. Not only does Purdy lead all quarterbacks in yards per attempt (YPA) from a clean pocket (9.9), he does so by more than a full yard over C.J. Stroud and Tua Tagovailoa (8.7 YPA).
2. Only Anthony Richardson (0.76), Josh Allen (0.65), and Lamar Jackson (0.63) scored more fantasy points per dropback than Purdy (0.60) this season.
3. The Chiefs have ramped up their blitz rate in the playoffs. Over their last three games, DC Steve Spagnolo has sent extra rushers on 43% of the opposing team’s pass plays. During the regular season, the Chiefs blitzed 35% of the time.
3b. Brock Purdy has been relatively efficient when blitzed, as he ranks 5th-of-41 QBs in YPA (9.1) and 10th in fantasy points scored per dropback (0.55).
3c. However, he hasn’t been perfect. Purdy’s 5.8% turnover-worthy throw rate (when blitzed) is 8th-highest among quarterbacks.
3d. Purdy’s TWT% is 3.4% when he’s not blitzed – which is right around league average.
4. Purdy has only been intercepted once this postseason, but our collection team has charted him with five turnover-worthy throws (on 70 attempts) against Green Bay and Detroit.
Deebo Samuel / Brandon Aiyuk / George Kittle
5. Samuel and Aiyuk combined to miss five combined games this season.
5b. So, in their 13 games together, Deebo Samuel (83 – 22.4% target share) just narrowly edged out Brandon Aiyuk (82 – 22.1% TS) for the team lead in targets followed by Christian McCaffrey (67 – 18.1% TS) and George Kittle (63 – 17% TS).
6. Aiyuk (9) and Kittle (5) lead the 49ers in end-zone targets over Samuel (3). Aiyuk’s nine end-zone looks comprise a whopping 42.8% team share.
7. The Chiefs predominantly play two-high coverage, and they’re leaning on those looks even more heavily in the postseason. In their last three games, Kansas City has played two-high safety coverage on 77.2% of their opponents' 136 dropbacks.
7b. During the regular season, the Chiefs deployed two-high safety coverages 67% of the time (most).
8. When facing two-high safety coverages, Samuel has earned a massive 28.2% target share – which easily leads the 49ers over CMC (21.5%), Aiyuk (20.2%), and Kittle (14.2%).
9. This is relative because Kittle can go off against any defense at any time. However, this is not a great schematic matchup because the Chiefs play so many two-high looks.
9b. George Kittle is averaging just 1.30 yards per route run vs. two-high safety looks. His efficiency spikes (2.79 YPRR) against one-high safety coverages.
9c. When facing single-high safety coverage, Aiyuk (23.6%) and Kittle (19%) lead the 49ers in target share.
Christian McCaffrey
10. CMC is putting the finishing touches on one of the best individual seasons for a running back. He’s eclipsed at least 100 scrimmage yards in an incredible 10 of his last 11 games.
11. In his five postseason starts with the 49ers (including last year), McCaffrey has saved his best for last. In the playoffs, CMC has rushed 77 times for 426 yards (5.53 YPC) with 4 TDs, and he’s added 23/133/1 as a receiver.
12. As we have noted all season long, the Chiefs are susceptible on the ground. It’ll be interesting to see if Kansas City adjusts and drops down extra safety help to play the run. Or, will they stick to their usual two-high looks?
12b. The Chiefs are allowing 4.48 YPC (6th-most) and a 51% success rate (5th-highest) on the ground. I have no idea why the Ravens didn’t try to run the ball against them in the AFC Championship game.
Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes
1. While his total stats aren’t anything to write home about so far, his performance this postseason just embodies why he’s greatness among mortals personified — Patrick Mahomes basically hasn’t made a mistake during the playoffs.
1b. On his 103 pass attempts, Mahomes has not thrown a single turnover-worthy pass. That’s right. Not one.
1c. Mahomes has been pressured 35 times this postseason. He’s taken just two sacks. And he’s added 84 rushing yards on seven scrambles.
2. 49ers DE Nick Bosa is getting his usual disruption, but the rest of their front seven needs to pick up the pace. San Francisco generated pressure just 21.7% of the time against Green Bay and Detroit.
3. This postseason, Mahomes' completion rate over expectation is +8.7% and he’s averaging 7.4 YPA when he’s kept clean. His average depth of target (6.3) remains low because he’s running the entire offense through Travis Kelce over the middle and Rashee Rice near the line of scrimmage.
4. Mahomes is averaging just 5.9 YPA (on 28 passes) when he’s pressured during this year’s playoffs.
4. During the playoffs, Mahomes has added 56 yards (on 5 carries) as a scrambler when pressured. Brock Purdy has added 62 yards on five scrambles.
Travis Kelce
5. If this really is Kelce’s final ride – let’s appreciate how incredible he’s been in his postseason career. H/T Pro Football Reference for the stats here…
6. Kelce has played 15 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes – which is basically a full season. This duo has combined for a near-perfect 123/1385/17 (on 147 targets) during the postseason dating back to 2020.
6b. Kelce is averaging 24.2 PPR points per game in playoff starts with Mahomes.
6c. This is, by far, the most FPG an individual receiver has put up in a postseason career. 6d. Larry Fitzgerald’s 23.2 FPG in eight postseason games from 2008-2015 is the next closest receiver to Kelce’s production with Mahomes.
6e. By comparison, Rob Gronkowski averaged 14.9 PPR points per game in his playoff career. That’s second-most all-time by a tight end.
7. Kelce’s 156 career playoff receptions are the most all-time, over Jerry Rice (151).
8. Kelce needs 3 TDs to tie Rice’s all-time playoff TD record (22).
Rashee Rice
9. Over his last 10 games, Rice has 65/783/4 receiving (on 86 targets).
10. Rice’s 13.6 Half-PPR points per game during this span would have made him the WR13 by a hair over Brandon Aiyuk (13.4).
11. Rice has seen at least nine targets in 7 of his last 10 games.
12. Mahomes stopped messing around with their awful receivers during the postseason, and he’s instead funneling the ball to his top two guys. Kelce (35.9%) and Rice (23.4%) have combined for 59% of Patrick Mahomes first-read targets this postseason.
12b. The next closest Chiefs WRs in first-read target share are Marquez Valdes-Scantling (12.5%) and Mecole Hardman (6.3%).
Isiah Pacheco
13. After a slow start to his season, Pacheco is running harder than ever with 144/664/7 rushing (4.61 YPC) and 26/111/1 receiving (on 27 targets) over his last eight games.
13b. At this eight-game pace, Pacheco’s 17.3 Half-PPR points per contest would have ranked him RB3 over Raheem Mostert (17.1) across the full season.
14. The 49ers' usually stout run defense has been cracked by Green Bay and Detroit in their last two games. On the ground, San Francisco has been ripped for 56/315/3 (5.63 YPC) by opposing running backs.
14b. San Francisco allowed an explosive gain – of 15 or more yards – on 8.9% of the Packers/Lions run plays.
14c. During the regular season, the 49ers allowed 3.93 YPC and a 4.3% explosive run rate.
