My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
How to use my power rankings: My top-rated team, the San Francisco 49ers (7.5), would be 12-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Chicago Bears (-4.5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the 49ers would be 14-point favorites over the Bears at home and 10.5-point favorites over the Bears on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 4
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking | Super Bowl Odds | Ranking Adjustment | 2023 Record (ATS) |
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 7.5 | +600 | +.5 | 3-0 (2-1) |
| 2. | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | +700 | — | 3-0 (2-0-1) |
| 3. | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | +600 | +.5 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 4. | Buffalo Bills | 6.5 | +950 | +.5 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 5. | Miami Dolphins | 6.5 | +1000 | +1 | 3-0 (3-0) |
| 6. | Dallas Cowboys | 5.5 | +1000 | -1 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 7. | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.5 | +1700 | — | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 8. | Detroit Lions | 4 | +2200 | — | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 9. | Cleveland Browns | 3.5 | +2600 | +1.5 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 10. | Baltimore Ravens | 3.5 | +1400 | -.5 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 11. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | +3200 | -.5 | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 12. | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.5 | +3000 | -.5 | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 13. | Seattle Seahawks | 2.5 | +4500 | — | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 14. | Green Bay Packers | 2 | +3800 | +.5 | 2-1 (3-0) |
| 15. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.5 | +3800 | +.5 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 16. | New England Patriots | 1.5 | +8000 | — | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | 1 | +3500 | -.5 | 2-1 (0-2-1) |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | .5 | +6000 | — | 0-3 (0-2-1) |
| 19. | Los Angeles Rams | 0 | +13000 | — | 1-1 (2-0) |
| 20. | Atlanta Falcons | 0 | +4500 | -.5 | 2-1 (1-2) |
| 21. | Tennessee Titans | -.5 | +6500 | -1 | 1-2 (2-1) |
| 22. | New York Giants | -.5 | +13000 | — | 1-2 (0-3) |
| 23. | New York Jets | -1 | +12000 | -.5 | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 25. | Indianapolis Colts | -1.5 | +11000 | +1 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 26. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | +8000 | -.5 | 2-1 (2-1) |
| 27. | Las Vegas Raiders | -2 | +17000 | — | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 28. | Houston Texans | -2.5 | +30000 | +1 | 1-2 (1-2) |
| 29. | Denver Broncos | -3 | +12000 | -1.5 | 0-3 (0-3) |
| 30. | Arizona Cardinals | -3.5 | +50000 | +1.5 | 1-2 (3-0) |
| 31. | Carolina Panthers | -4 | +30000 | -1 | 0-3 (0-2-1) |
| 32. | Chicago Bears | -4.5 | +30000 | -2 | 0-3 (0-3) |
Rankings Adjustment Tracker
UP
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update.
San Francisco 49ers — The 49ers out-gained the Giants by 291 yards with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle each going for 90+ scrimmage yards.
Kansas City Chiefs — Kansas City’s defense has done the heavy lifting for the offense through the first three weeks, allowing the fourth-fewest PPG (13.3) and the seventh-fewest YPG (280.7).
Buffalo Bills — The Bills have outscored the Commanders and Raiders 75-13 the last two weeks after losing to the Jets in the oper.
Miami Dolphins — The Dolphins became the first team to score 70+ points and record 700+ yards of offense in the same game.
Cleveland Browns — The Browns are giving up by far the fewest YPG (163.7) — well ahead of the Bills (253.0) in second place — and a league-best 3.2 yards per play.
Green Bay Packers — The Packers blew a 12-point, fourth-quarter lead to the Falcons in Week 2 before erasing a 17-point, fourth-quarter deficit in a victory over the Saints in Week 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Kenny Pickett recorded his first multi-touchdown passing performance in his 15th career start.
Indianapolis Colts — Matt Gay became the first kicker to convert four 50+ yards field goals in the same game, including a 53-yard conversion to knock off the Ravens in overtime.
Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud ranks fourth in pass attempts (121) to open the season, and he’s averaging a strong 7.5 YPA without an INT. Justin Herbert is the only other QB without an INT among 16 QBs with 100+ attempts.
Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals have held second-half leads in each of their first three games, and they closed one out against the Cowboys as 11-point home underdogs.
DOWN
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update.
Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys still have an elite defense but Trevon Diggs’ ACL tear is a crushing blow for this secondary. Dallas’ offense then failed to score touchdowns on four different trips inside the 10-yard line in a loss to the Cardinals.
Baltimore Ravens — The Ravens lost to the Colts as 7.5-point home favorites in a physical, 69-minute affair in sloppy conditions, and this already banged-up squad lost Gus Edwards (concussion) and David Ojabo (ankle) to injuries.
Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers finally broke into the win column in Week 3 but it came at a cost with Mike Williams tearing his ACL in the victory.
Jacksonville Jaguars — Calvin Ridley got off to a blistering start in his return to the NFL, but he dropped 2 passes, including a 30-yard TD, and was flagged twice for false starts in a loss to the Texans.
New Orleans Saints — The Saints managed just 96 net yards and no points on Jameis Winston’s five drives against the Packers after Derek Carr left early for an AC joint in his throwing shoulder.
Atlanta Falcons — Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeie combined for just 17/45 rushing, and the Falcons failed to score a touchdown in their first loss of the season.
Tennessee Titans — Derrick Henry managed just 11/20 rushing with Tennessee’s O-line completely overwhelmed by the Browns defensive front.
New York Jets — Zach Wilson continues to prove he isn’t an NFL quarterback with his 52.4% completion percentage, and he once again has more INTs (4) than TD passes (2).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield committed his first turnover and lost his first game as a Buccaneer in a lopsided loss to the Eagles.
Washington Commanders — The Commanders came crashing back to earth after a 2-0 start. Sam Howell threw 4 INTs and absorbed 9 sacks in a 37-3 drubbing against the Bills.
Denver Broncos — Sean Payton said Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL,” but Payton is giving him a run for his money after a 50-point drubbing by the Dolphins.
Carolina Panthers — Carolina’s defense has been crushed with injuries to the likes of Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR) and Shaq Thompson (leg, IR), and they took two more hits in Week 3 with Frankie Luvu (hip) and Xavier Woods (hamstring) both leaving early.
Chicago Bears — Fields’ completion percentage (64.5%>55.2%>50.0%), passing yards (216>211>99), and QB rating (78.2>61.1>58.7) has fallen in three consecutive losses. The Bears have dropped 13 consecutive games outright.
