2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3


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2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3

My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.

How to use my power rankings: My top-rated team, the San Francisco 49ers (7), would be 12-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Arizona Cardinals (-5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the 49ers would be 13.5-point favorites over the Cardinals at home and 10.5-point favorites over the Cardinals on the road.

2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3

RankTeamPower RankingSuper Bowl OddsRanking Adjustment2023 Record (ATS)
1.San Francisco 49ers7+700+.52-0 (1-1)
2.Philadelphia Eagles7+7502-0 (1-0-1)
3.Dallas Cowboys6.5+850+.52-0 (2-0)
4.Kansas City Chiefs6.5+6001-1 (1-1)
5.Buffalo Bills6+1000+11-1 (1-1)
6.Miami Dolphins5.5+1300+.52-0 (2-0)
7.Cincinnati Bengals4.5+1900-10-2 (0-2)
8.Baltimore Ravens4+1000+12-0 (2-0)
9.Detroit Lions4+2600-.51-1 (1-1)
10.Jacksonville Jaguars3.5+26001-1 (1-1)
11.Los Angeles Chargers3+3500-10-2 (0-2)
12.Seattle Seahawks2.5+5000+.51-1 (1-1)
13.Cleveland Browns2+3300-.51-0 (1-0)
14.New Orleans Saints1.5+2800+.52-0 (0-1-1)
15.Green Bay Packers1.5+3500-.51-1 (2-0)
16.New England Patriots1.5+90000-2 (0-2)
17.Pittsburgh Steelers1+4000-11-1 (1-1)
18.Minnesota Vikings.5+50000-2 (0-1-1)
19.Atlanta Falcons.5+3300+12-0 (1-1)
20.Tennessee Titans.5+5500+.51-1 (2-0)
21.Los Angeles Rams0+8000+11-1 (2-0)
22.New York Jets-.5+7000-11-1 (1-1)
23.Washington Commanders-.5+7500+.52-0 (1-1)
24.New York Giants-.5+9000-11-1 (0-2)
25.Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1+7000+12-0 (2-0)
26.Denver Broncos-1.5+10000-10-2 (0-2)
27.Las Vegas Raiders-2+12000-.51-1 (1-1)
28.Indianapolis Colts-2.5+17000+.51-1 (1-1)
29.Chicago Bears-2.5+20000-10-2 (0-2)
30.Carolina Panthers-3+20000-.50-2 (0-1-1)
31.Houston Texans-3.5+70000-.50-2 (0-2)
32.Arizona Cardinals-5+1000000-2 (2-0)

Rankings Adjustment Tracker


Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update.

San Francisco 49ers — San Francisco has won 12 straight regular-season games with eight of them coming by double-digit margins.

Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys ran 83 plays compared to 46 for the Jets, and they owned a +4 turnover differential in another beatdown of a New York team.

Buffalo Bills — Buffalo out-gained the Raiders 450 to 240 yards and, more importantly, Josh Allen played mistake-free football on his way to 274/3 passing.

Miami Dolphins — The Dolphins beat the Chargers through the air in the season before riding Raheem Mostert for 18/121/2 rushing in a victory over the Patriots.

Baltimore Ravens — Baltimore survived a grisly injury report last week to open up a two-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North.

Seattle Seahawks — Geno Smith threw the ball all over the Lions even without their two starting tackles, posting 328/2 passing while absorbing just 1 sack.

New Orleans Saints — Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed have posted 55+ receiving yards in the first two games.

Tennessee Titans — Ryan Tannehill absorbed 5 sacks behind an O-line missing Peter Skoronski (appendectomy), but he completed 83.3% of his passes in a much-improved effort from the season opener.

Atlanta Falcons — Atlanta out-gained Green Bay by more than 200+ yards (446>224) while averaging 5.7 yards per play.

Los Angeles Rams — Puka Nacua has been a revelation at receiver, setting a single-game rookie record with 15 receptions last week, which gives him an all-time NFL-best 25 catches through his first two games.

Washington Commanders — The Commanders are coming off a pair of victories against potentially two of the league’s worst teams, and they’ll get their first real test against the Bills this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers rank second with a +5 turnover differential, and Mike Evans is the WR4 with 47.7 FP through two games.

Indianapolis Colts — The Colts snapped an eight-game outright losing streak, but Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion in the first quarter after scoring two first-quarter TDs.


Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update.

Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow aggravated his calf injury late in their Week 2 loss to the Ravens, which has his status up in the air moving forward.

Detroit Lions — The Lions left their Week 2 loss pretty beat up, losing David Montgomery, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, and James Houston to injuries. They also had a number of other players who were in and out of the lineup, including Amon-Ra St. Brown who dealt with cramping and a toe issue.

Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers have lost four straight games, all by a field goal or less.

Cleveland Browns — The Browns lost the heart and soul of their offense with Nick Chubb suffering a catastrophic knee injury.

Green Bay Packers — The Packers squandered a 12-point lead against the Falcons, and the offense had no juice without Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and David Bahktiari — Elgton Jenkins also left early.

Pittsburgh Steelers — The Steelers won in ugly fashion with two defensive scores and a 71-yard TD from George Pickens, but Kenny Pickett is broken in Matt Canada’s offense.

New York Jets — Zach Wilson completed 44.4% of his passes with 3 INTs, and Breece Hall saw just 4 carries in a loss to the Cowboys.

New York Giants — The Giants were out-scored 60-0 by the Cowboys and Cardinals in the first 90 minutes of the season. New York used a furious comeback from 21 points down to defeat the lowly Cardinals.

Las Vegas Raiders — Josh Jacobs’s defense of his rushing title is off to a rough start with 28/46 rushing (1.6 YPC) after posting -2 yards on 9 carries against the Bills.

Denver Broncos — The Sean Payton era is off to a forgettable start with two home losses against two of the NFL’s weakest teams.

Chicago Bears — The Bears have lost 12 straight games outright and Justin Fields’ career record now sits at a miserable 5-22 (.185).

Carolina Panthers — The Panthers mustered just 9 points and 164 yards until they scored a touchdown on their final drive of the game with the Saints sitting in prevent defense.

Houston Texans — Dameon Pierce has managed just 26/69 rushing (2.7 YPC) behind Houston’s makeshift offensive line.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 64.3% clip last season and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.