My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
How to use my power rankings: My top-rated team, the San Francisco 49ers (7), would be 12-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Arizona Cardinals (-5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the 49ers would be 13.5-point favorites over the Cardinals at home and 10.5-point favorites over the Cardinals on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3
|Rank||Team||Power Ranking||Super Bowl Odds||Ranking Adjustment||2023 Record (ATS)|
|1.||San Francisco 49ers||7||+700||+.5||2-0 (1-1)|
|2.||Philadelphia Eagles||7||+750||—||2-0 (1-0-1)|
|3.||Dallas Cowboys||6.5||+850||+.5||2-0 (2-0)|
|4.||Kansas City Chiefs||6.5||+600||—||1-1 (1-1)|
|5.||Buffalo Bills||6||+1000||+1||1-1 (1-1)|
|6.||Miami Dolphins||5.5||+1300||+.5||2-0 (2-0)|
|7.||Cincinnati Bengals||4.5||+1900||-1||0-2 (0-2)|
|8.||Baltimore Ravens||4||+1000||+1||2-0 (2-0)|
|9.||Detroit Lions||4||+2600||-.5||1-1 (1-1)|
|10.||Jacksonville Jaguars||3.5||+2600||—||1-1 (1-1)|
|11.||Los Angeles Chargers||3||+3500||-1||0-2 (0-2)|
|12.||Seattle Seahawks||2.5||+5000||+.5||1-1 (1-1)|
|13.||Cleveland Browns||2||+3300||-.5||1-0 (1-0)|
|14.||New Orleans Saints||1.5||+2800||+.5||2-0 (0-1-1)|
|15.||Green Bay Packers||1.5||+3500||-.5||1-1 (2-0)|
|16.||New England Patriots||1.5||+9000||—||0-2 (0-2)|
|17.||Pittsburgh Steelers||1||+4000||-1||1-1 (1-1)|
|18.||Minnesota Vikings||.5||+5000||—||0-2 (0-1-1)|
|19.||Atlanta Falcons||.5||+3300||+1||2-0 (1-1)|
|20.||Tennessee Titans||.5||+5500||+.5||1-1 (2-0)|
|21.||Los Angeles Rams||0||+8000||+1||1-1 (2-0)|
|22.||New York Jets||-.5||+7000||-1||1-1 (1-1)|
|23.||Washington Commanders||-.5||+7500||+.5||2-0 (1-1)|
|24.||New York Giants||-.5||+9000||-1||1-1 (0-2)|
|25.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-1||+7000||+1||2-0 (2-0)|
|26.||Denver Broncos||-1.5||+10000||-1||0-2 (0-2)|
|27.||Las Vegas Raiders||-2||+12000||-.5||1-1 (1-1)|
|28.||Indianapolis Colts||-2.5||+17000||+.5||1-1 (1-1)|
|29.||Chicago Bears||-2.5||+20000||-1||0-2 (0-2)|
|30.||Carolina Panthers||-3||+20000||-.5||0-2 (0-1-1)|
|31.||Houston Texans||-3.5||+70000||-.5||0-2 (0-2)|
|32.||Arizona Cardinals||-5||+100000||—||0-2 (2-0)|
Rankings Adjustment Tracker
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update.
San Francisco 49ers — San Francisco has won 12 straight regular-season games with eight of them coming by double-digit margins.
Dallas Cowboys — The Cowboys ran 83 plays compared to 46 for the Jets, and they owned a +4 turnover differential in another beatdown of a New York team.
Buffalo Bills — Buffalo out-gained the Raiders 450 to 240 yards and, more importantly, Josh Allen played mistake-free football on his way to 274/3 passing.
Miami Dolphins — The Dolphins beat the Chargers through the air in the season before riding Raheem Mostert for 18/121/2 rushing in a victory over the Patriots.
Baltimore Ravens — Baltimore survived a grisly injury report last week to open up a two-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North.
Seattle Seahawks — Geno Smith threw the ball all over the Lions even without their two starting tackles, posting 328/2 passing while absorbing just 1 sack.
New Orleans Saints — Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed have posted 55+ receiving yards in the first two games.
Tennessee Titans — Ryan Tannehill absorbed 5 sacks behind an O-line missing Peter Skoronski (appendectomy), but he completed 83.3% of his passes in a much-improved effort from the season opener.
Atlanta Falcons — Atlanta out-gained Green Bay by more than 200+ yards (446>224) while averaging 5.7 yards per play.
Los Angeles Rams — Puka Nacua has been a revelation at receiver, setting a single-game rookie record with 15 receptions last week, which gives him an all-time NFL-best 25 catches through his first two games.
Washington Commanders — The Commanders are coming off a pair of victories against potentially two of the league’s worst teams, and they’ll get their first real test against the Bills this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers rank second with a +5 turnover differential, and Mike Evans is the WR4 with 47.7 FP through two games.
Indianapolis Colts — The Colts snapped an eight-game outright losing streak, but Anthony Richardson suffered a concussion in the first quarter after scoring two first-quarter TDs.
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update.
Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow aggravated his calf injury late in their Week 2 loss to the Ravens, which has his status up in the air moving forward.
Detroit Lions — The Lions left their Week 2 loss pretty beat up, losing David Montgomery, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, and James Houston to injuries. They also had a number of other players who were in and out of the lineup, including Amon-Ra St. Brown who dealt with cramping and a toe issue.
Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers have lost four straight games, all by a field goal or less.
Cleveland Browns — The Browns lost the heart and soul of their offense with Nick Chubb suffering a catastrophic knee injury.
Green Bay Packers — The Packers squandered a 12-point lead against the Falcons, and the offense had no juice without Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and David Bahktiari — Elgton Jenkins also left early.
Pittsburgh Steelers — The Steelers won in ugly fashion with two defensive scores and a 71-yard TD from George Pickens, but Kenny Pickett is broken in Matt Canada’s offense.
New York Jets — Zach Wilson completed 44.4% of his passes with 3 INTs, and Breece Hall saw just 4 carries in a loss to the Cowboys.
New York Giants — The Giants were out-scored 60-0 by the Cowboys and Cardinals in the first 90 minutes of the season. New York used a furious comeback from 21 points down to defeat the lowly Cardinals.
Las Vegas Raiders — Josh Jacobs’s defense of his rushing title is off to a rough start with 28/46 rushing (1.6 YPC) after posting -2 yards on 9 carries against the Bills.
Denver Broncos — The Sean Payton era is off to a forgettable start with two home losses against two of the NFL’s weakest teams.
Chicago Bears — The Bears have lost 12 straight games outright and Justin Fields’ career record now sits at a miserable 5-22 (.185).
Carolina Panthers — The Panthers mustered just 9 points and 164 yards until they scored a touchdown on their final drive of the game with the Saints sitting in prevent defense.
Houston Texans — Dameon Pierce has managed just 26/69 rushing (2.7 YPC) behind Houston’s makeshift offensive line.