If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LVII concluded with the Chiefs defeating the Eagles two months ago. I’ve already broken down Super Bowl odds and win totals for the upcoming season, and I’ll continue to add to my Best Bets throughout the summer. The 2023 NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 27-29, which is our one chance to bet on an actual NFL event before preseason action gets underway in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the NFL Draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow wagers on NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft or you have access to an off-shore account.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. There’s a lot more volatility in odds between sportsbooks with an event like the NFL Draft than you’ll see on game lines or player props during the season.
I plan on updating these NFL Draft Prop articles and my Best Bets multiple times before the end of April, so check back throughout the month.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer rookie profiles from Brett Whitefield from our 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to sign up for a FREE account to get Brett’s complete analysis for over 100+ players.
Article Updates Since Initial Publication on April 4
Hendon Hooker — “Draft Prop to Consider” updated on April 25.
Will Levis — “Draft prop to Consider” updated on April 21.
Bryce Young — “Draft Prop to Consider” updated on April 18.
C.J. Stroud — “Draft Prop to Consider” updated on April 18.
Anthony Richardson — “Draft Prop to Consider” updated on April 18.
NFL Draft Quarterback Props
Bryce Young, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): First overall (Carolina Panthers), QB1
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): First overall (Carolina Panthers), QB1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): First overall (Carolina Panthers), QB1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Second overall (Houston Texans), QB2
Consensus Mock Drafts
NFL Mock Draft Database: First overall, Carolina Panthers (88%)
Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 1.1 (QB1)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Young offers teams a hyper-accurate passer at all three levels of the field. He has the IQ to get through progressions at times and take excellent care of the football. While he does have legitimate deficiencies as a player, learning to play within the structure of the play more often would go a long way in protecting himself. He officially scores as a top-5 player in the Draft and will be drafted as such.
Draft Props to Consider
Number 1 Overall Pick (-1000, Caesars) — The Texans lost the top overall pick in dramatic fashion in the season finale, beating the Colts in the final minute to finish with the second-worst record in 2022. That improbable victory will most likely cost the franchise its chance at landing Young unless they sell the farm to Carolina to move up to the top spot. Young is a massive favorite to be selected first overall and the Panthers appear to be poised to make the pick after trading ahead of Houston in March. C.J. Stroud initially became the favorite to be selected first overall after Carolina completed the trade up with Chicago because of HC Frank Reich’s previous affinity for bigger quarterbacks. Reich previously worked with the likes of Matt Ryan (6’4”), Carson Wentz (6’4”), Philip Rivers (6’5”), Jacoby Brissett (6’4”), and Andrew Luck (6’4”) during his time with the Colts. Stroud certainly fit Reich’s prototypical QB mold a lot better than Young with a whopping five-inch height difference (6’3” vs. 5’10”). The tide started to turn for Young around April 5 when Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter started to pound the drum that the Panthers would select Young. He’s now the massive favorite to be selected first overall after news came out on April 17 that he canceled his remaining pre-draft visits, which means he may have received assurance that he’d be selected at the top of the draft. Hopefully, you were able to grab Young at +300 odds or longer in mid-March because those days are long gone with the draft quickly approaching.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Second overall (Houston Texans), QB2
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Second overall (Indianapolis Colts), QB2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Second overall (Houston Texans), QB2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): First overall (Carolina Panthers), QB1
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Second overall, Houston Texans (31%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 4.3 (QB2)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Stroud is a very good quarterback prospect who should be drafted in the top-5 of the NFL Draft. He is a candidate to go first overall, and I scored him as someone worthy of that investment. He profiles as a franchise quarterback with enough arm talent and repeatable accuracy to be the centerpoint of an offense.
Draft Props to Consider
Fourth Pick: C.J. Stroud (+225, BetMGM) — Stroud went from being the odds-on favorite to be the top overall pick after the Panthers traded up with the Bears to being in a potential freefall with Carolina poised to select Bryce Young. Stroud opened as the small favorite to be the first overall pick last May, but the Alabama QB overtook him and became the odds-on favorite starting in January. Young’s odds were as short as -190 and Stroud sat at +325 as of early March when the Bears still owned the top pick, but the two top QB prospects flipped positions after the Panthers acquired the #1 overall selection. As noted in Young’s writeup, the tide started to turn against Stroud as the top overall pick around April 5, and his final destination is now very much up in the air with GM Nick Caserio and the Texans brass reportedly not enamored with the Ohio State QB. The Texans’ biggest need is still at quarterback and Caserio also said they’re open to listening to trade offers, so Stroud could still be selected in the second spot. NFL draftnik and Texans insider Lance Zierlein mocked Tyree Wilson to the Texans at #2 overall in an April 4 draft, and he noted that Stroud shares the same agent as disgraced Texan quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Colts could have a tough time trading up to #2 with their division rival so they may have to stand pat and let one of the QBs like Stroud fall to them with the fourth overall pick.
Anthony Richardson, Florida
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Fourth overall (Indianapolis Colts), QB3
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Fifth overall (Seattle Seahawks), QB3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Fourth overall (Indianapolis Colts), QB3
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Third overall (Indianapolis Colts), QB3
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Fourth Overall, Indianapolis Colts (35%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 9.2 (QB3)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Richardson looks like a Marvel superhero. He runs and jumps like one as well. Beyond the physique, though, you find a quarterback with a pretty refined skill set. His lack of consistent accuracy makes him feel like a "raw" prospect but the truth is that it's really his only pain point. I don’t consider that raw. When I think of raw, developmental QBs, I think of guys who process the game slowly or have issues with the basics of running an offense. I don’t see that with Richardson. He profiles as a franchise quarterback with endless athleticism and a monster arm who needs to clean up his throwing mechanics.
Draft Props to Consider
UPDATE: I would no longer bet Richardson to be the third overall pick. I liked this bet when it looked like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would go 1-2 at the top of the draft, but there’s a lot more uncertainty with the first two picks.
3rd Overall Pick: Anthony Richardson (+125, BetMGM, placed April 4) — The Cardinals are the one team inside the first four picks that isn’t in need of a quarterback. They’re also starting a roster overhaul this off-season with Kyler Murray recovering from a torn ACL, which makes them prime candidates to move back and collect more assets. Sportsbooks recently projected the Cardinals to have the fewest wins, and they certainly have more holes on their roster than most teams. Additional assets will aid them in their rebuilding process, and they could still land one of the top defensive prospects with a minimal move back on Day 1 of the draft. It makes a lot of sense for a team like the Colts to swap spots with the Cardinals to prevent another team from leap-frogging them for the quarterback they want. It appeared that the big four QBs in this year’s class were shrinking to a big three with Levis losing some momentum in March, but that may not be the case with the Texans potentially more intrigued by Levis than Stroud or Richardson. This bet certainly isn’t dead with a potentially QB-needy team still looking to get ahead of the Colts to select Richardson with the third overall pick, but I no longer see value in it with so many options available to the Cardinals in that spot.
Will Levis, Kentucky
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 19th overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), QB4
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 12th overall (Houston Texans), QB5
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Eleventh overall (Tennessee Titans), QB4
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 14th overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), QB4
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: No consensus landing spot (13th big board)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 8.2 (QB4)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Levis is a big-armed quarterback with high-level playmaking ability and the means to make highlight reel throws anywhere on the field. He does have some notable and concerning deficiencies with his accuracy and decision-making. With that said, Levis is a swing-for-the-fences type of prospect. We have seen worse quarterbacks get drafted high and have success at the NFL level. He scores as a top-12 player for me.
Draft Props to Consider
Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Quarterback (+2000, FanDuel) — Levis is picking up steam late in the pre-draft process, which is corresponding with C.J. Stroud’s slide after being the favorite to go No. 1 overall after the Panthers acquired the top pick in March. Levis went from an expected draft position of 5.9 in early March to 11.4 in early April (per Grinding the Mocks), but he’s charging back up boards to 8.2 days before the draft. Levis is now in a dead heat to go second overall with Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson. Levis had a dreadful senior season, posting 19 TD passes to 10 INTs and absorbing so many sacks that he finished with negative rushing yards. He’ll also turn 24 years old in June after failing to beat out Sean Clifford at the start of his college career at Penn State. Nevertheless, he’s checking a lot of boxes because of his size (6’44”, 229 pounds), athleticism, arm strength, and his background in a pro-style offense at Kentucky.
The Texans appear lukewarm about taking Levis or one of the other top quarterback prospects with the second overall pick, and GM Nick Caserio said they’re listening to offers for the pick. I believe one of those teams talking to the Texans is the Patriots, Caserio’s former employer (and potentially future employer). Let’s connect some recent dots here. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported in early April that “[Bill] Belichick shopped [Mac] Jones to multiple teams.” The Athletic’s Chad Graff also wrote that the rift between Bill Belichick and Mac Jones is real even if it was a stretch for Florio to say Belichick is shopping Jones. The Patriots then squeezed Levis in for a visit on the last possible day to do it on April 19. It’s notable that HC Demeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik worked on the 49ers coaching staff that met with and studied Jones a ton during the 2021 draft process before ultimately selecting Trey Lance with the third overall pick. The Texans could land Mac, No. 14, and additional picks over the next few years if the Texans truly don’t love any of the 2023 quarterbacks. The Patriots could elect to move up to another spot in the draft to select a quarterback or one could fall to them in the mid-first round like Mac did in 2021 at No. 15. This could all be a big ploy by Belichick to light a fire under Mac’s butt for next season, but there’s just too much smoke here to pass on the long-shot odds that the Patriots select a quarterback with their first pick.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 23rd overall (Minnesota Vikings), QB5
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 11th overall (Tennessee Titans), QB4
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 37th overall (Seattle Seahawks), QB5
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 23rd overall (Minnesota Vikings), QB5
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 23rd overall, Minnesota Vikings (12%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 27.2 (QB5)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Hooker is an excellent quarterback prospect who scored with a firm first-round grade from me, even after taking hits for his age and injury history. In Hooker, teams are getting an ultra-accurate pocket passer with the arm talent to make any throw. He also adds the quarterback run dimension, as he is very athletic with quick feet and the ability to make defenders miss in the open field. He possesses prototypical quarterback size with a refined skill set. While there could be a transitional curve for Hooker learning a more complicated playbook, he checks just about every box to be a good starter in the NFL.
Draft Props to Consider
Total Quarterbacks Selected in 1st Round: Under 4.5 (+165, Caesars) — C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis will each be drafted in the first round and potentially within the first five to 10 picks on April 27. Hooker is the one quarterback who could wreck the party for the over on this bet, and he’s picked up some momentum since both Daniel Jeremiah and Todd McShay projected him to go 23rd overall in their penultimate mock drafts. I’m wondering if there’s genuine interest in Hooker as a first-round selection or if we reached the point in the draft season when people are looking to spice up their mocks. We’ve seen several quarterbacks get some first-round buzz late in the pre-draft process like Desmond Ridder (2022), Matt Corral (2022), Davis Mills (2021), Jacob Eason (2020), Drew Lock (2019), and Will Grier (2019) only for those QBs to go on the final two days of the draft.
I find it hard to believe that a team will spend a valuable first-round pick on Hooker, who is seven months older than Jalen Hurts and will turn 26 years old next January. He’s also coming off ACL surgery last December, which will limit his development this season, and he’s already a bit of a project since he played in a gimmicky offense with the Volunteers. Hooker’s stock has skyrocketed in April and his expected draft position sits at 27.2 just days before the draft (per Grinding the Mocks). The odds of 5+ quarterbacks being selected in the first round has steadily picked up some momentum and it’s now an overwhelming favorite. I initially wrote that I could jump on a bet if under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round fell below -200 odds and we’re now seeing odds as long as +165. I still lean toward under 4.5 quarterbacks being selected in the first round, but the steady drumbeat of support for Hooker is too loud to wager on it.
NFL Draft Tight End Props
Dalton Kincaid, Utah
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 16th overall (Washington Commanders), TE1
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 16th overall (Washington Commanders), TE1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 21st overall (Los Angeles Chargers), TE1
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 24th overall (Jacksonville Jaguars), TE1
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 26th overall, Dallas Cowboys (17%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 21.9 (TE1)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Kincaid is as good a tight end prospect as you will find in most drafts. The level of polish he comes into the NFL with is unparalleled in recent memory. Finding deficiencies in his game is, honestly, hard. He scores as a 1st-round pick for me and is my #1 tight end in this class.
Draft Props to Consider
First tight end drafted: Dalton Kincaid (+175, Caesars, placed April 4) — Kincaid and Michael Mayer are in a race to be the first tight end selected, with Georgia’s Darnell Washington a sleeper to crash the party. This race appears to me to be much closer to a coin-flip race between Mayer and Kincaid than the current odds suggest. At NFL Mock Draft Database, Kincaid’s consensus mock draft position is 26th to the Cowboys, and he ranks 27th on the consensus big board. Mayer’s consensus mock draft position is 13th to the Packers, and his consensus big board position is 22nd. However, Kincaid owns an advantage in expected draft position, 21.9 to 23.4, at Grinding the Mocks so this appears to be a tight race to be selected first. Kincaid is a slightly older prospect at 23 years old, and he didn’t get the chance to show his athleticism in the pre-draft process because of a minor back fracture he suffered late in the season. Mayer checks in 21 months younger than Kincaid but he didn’t exactly light it up at the Combine with a SPORQ score of 65.1. Mayer is the more well-rounded prospect coming into the league and Kincaid has the higher ceiling because of his upside in the passing game. Mayer is the favorite to be the first tight end selected but Kincaid is a value bet at plus-price odds.
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 19th overall (New Orleans Saints), TE2
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 21st overall (Los Angeles Chargers), TE2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 26th overall (Dallas Cowboys), TE2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 26th overall (Dallas Cowboys), TE2
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 13th overall, Green Bay Packers (23%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 23.4 (TE2)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Mayer profiles as a powerful inline tight end with pass-game upside in the red zone. What he lacks in athleticism, he gains in a refined skill set, physicality, and attention to detail. Mayer’s transition to the NFL should be relatively smooth, given his experience and developed skills. He should be one of the first tight ends taken on Draft Day. Officially, he scores as an early 2nd-round pick for me, but I could get on board with him at the end of the 1st round.
Draft Props to Consider
Total Tight Ends Selected in the First Round: Under 2.5 (-280, FanDuel) — This year’s tight end class is loaded with high-end talent that hasn’t been seen at the position in quite a few years. Dalton Kincaid (21.9 EDP), Michael Mayer (23.4), Darnell Washington (38.2), and Luke Musgrave (47.1) each own expected draft positions inside the first two rounds. You have to go back to 2017 for the last time three tight ends were drafted in the first round. O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, and David Njoku each went inside the first 32 picks, which was the only time it’s happened in the last two decades. Daniel Jeremiah has Kincaid, Mayer, and Washington each ranked inside his top 22 players on his big board, and Todd McShay has them all ranked inside his top 32 players. The problem is that tight end is one of the lowest priority positions, which can be seen by franchise tag values for 2023, which is an average of the top-five highest-paid players at each position over the past five years. Tight ends ranked ahead of only running backs ($10.09 million) with a franchise tag value of $11.35 million and well behind safeties, the third-lowest paid group at $14.46 million. This year’s TE class has three deserving first-round options in Mayer, Kincaid, and Washington, but I believe teams will ultimately prioritize positions like offensive line, cornerback, defensive line, and wide receiver late in the first round where these TEs will be under consideration.
Brolley’s Best Bets
UPDATE: I would no longer bet Richardson to be the third overall pick. I liked this bet when it looked like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud would go 1-2 at the top of the draft, but there’s a lot more uncertainty with the first two picks now.
Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Quarterback (+2000, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 20 units. Placed April 21.
First tight end drafted: Dalton Kincaid (+175, Caesars). Risk one unit to win 1.75 units. Placed April 4.
3rd Overall Pick: Anthony Richardson (+125, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 1.25 units. Placed April 4.
