2023 NFL Betting Preview: Tennessee Titans


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2023 NFL Betting Preview: Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans appeared headed toward their third consecutive AFC South title after starting last season with a 7-3 record and with their top competition, the Indianapolis Colts, imploding after losing to Tennessee in Week 7. However, the Titans collapsed themselves with a seven-game losing streak to end the season, the franchise’s worst losing streak since 2015, which was also the last time they had a losing record. They still had a chance to win the AFC South entering the season finale, but they blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars to miss the playoffs (-120 odds) for the first time since 2018. Tennessee’s late-season dysfunction hit its crescendo when owner Amy Adams Strunk fired GM Jon Robinson in early December even with the Titans sitting at the top of the division.

Robinson put himself on the chopping block when he stunned the league by trading A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles during the draft. Tennessee’s thin roster got exposed with a league-high 23 players landing on the injured reserve to end the season, including the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Harold Landry, and Taylor Lewan. It got so bad that the Titans signed Josh Dobbs from the Detroit Lions practice squad to start the final two games of the season instead of trotting out overmatched third-round pick Malik Willis. Tennessee finished with just two 100-yard receiving performances and 16 passing TDs, and their defense allowed a league-high 274.8 passing YPG. Derrick Henry once again covered up a lot of their warts with a league-high 349 carries, which he turned into 1538/13 rushing in 16 games. The Titans entered their first off-season after a losing season since 2015, which was the same off-season they hired Robinson as general manager. Strunk tabbed Ran Carthon to lead the next turnaround and he has his hands full with a roster that’s quickly deteriorating heading into 2023.

2022 By the Numbers

  • Record (ATS): 7-10 (9-6-2)

  • Season Win Total: Under 7

  • One-Possession Record: 5-6

  • Missed Playoff Odds: -120

  • Over/Under Record: 5-12

  • PPG: 17.5 (28th)

  • PPG Allowed: 21.1 (t-14th)

  • Average Scoring Margin: -3.6 (26th)

  • Turnover Differential: -3 (t-22nd)

2023 Schedule

1@ New Orleans Saints+3.51
2Los Angeles Chargers+3.51
3@ Cleveland Browns+4.51
4Cincinnati Bengals+4.51
5@ Indianapolis Colts+11
6Baltimore Ravens (London)+5.59:30 a.m.
8Atlanta Falcons-11
9@ Pittsburgh Steelers+48:15 (Thurs)
10@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers-11
11@ Jacksonville Jaguars+51
12Carolina Panthers-11
13Indianapolis Colts-2.51
14@ Miami Dolphins+7.58:15 (Mon)
15Houston Texans-31
16Seattle Seahawks+21
17@ Houston Texans-11
18Jacksonville Jaguars+2.5TBD

The Good

  • The Titans have the ninth-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals (per Sharp Football).

  • Tennessee doesn’t face a single opponent coming off a bye.

  • The Titans will travel the 13th-fewest miles (17,022) and they’ll cross 24 time zones (per Bookies.com).

  • Tennessee is scheduled for two primetime games.

  • Softest Stretch: Weeks 12-15 (Car, Ind, @Mia, Hou)

The Bad

  • The Titans are one of nine teams playing in the International Series. They’ll square off against the Ravens in London in Week 6, and they’ll lose one of their nine home dates as the designated host for the international game.

  • Tennessee will play three straight road games in Weeks 9-11 (@Pit, @TB, @Jax).

  • Toughest Stretch: Weeks 1-4 (@NO, LAC, @Cle, Cin)

Key Off-season Moves

OT Andre DillardOG Peter SkoronskiOG Nate Davis
EDGE Arden KeyQB Will LevisWR Robert Woods
LB Azeez Al-ShaairRB Tyjae SpearsDT DeMarcus Walker
CB Sean Murphy-BuntingTE Josh WhyleLB David Long
OG Daniel BrunskillTE Austin Hooper
LB Luke GiffordEDGE Bud Dupree
WR Chris MooreQB Josh Dobbs
OG Dennis Daley
CB Lonnie Johnson

Head Coach History

Mike Vrabel: 6th season, 48-34 overall record (.531), 4-1 win total record

YearRecordWin Total ResultPoint of Elimination
2022 (Ten)7-10 (2nd AFCS)Under 9Regular Season
2021 (Ten)12-5 (1st AFCS)Over 9.5Divisional
2020 (Ten)11-5 (1st AFCS)Over 8.5Wild Card
2019 (Ten)9-7 (2nd AFCS)Over 8AFC Championship
2018 (Ten)9-7 (3rd AFCS)Over 8Regular Season

2023 Season Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Team FuturesOdds
Season Win Total (O/U)7.5 (+104/-128)
AFC South+380
Playoffs (Y/N)+245/320
AFC Championship+5500
Super Bowl+7500

Season Prop Movement

Win Total: 7.5 (+105) in late March to 7.5 (+104)

Super Bowl: +7000 in mid-February to +7500

Reasons to Bet Over the Season Win Total

The Titans were well on their way to overperforming once again under HC Mike Vrabel before finishing 2022 with a seven-game losing streak. It was the first time the Titans finished under their win total in Vrabel’s five seasons as head coach after besting their win totals by 2.5 victories in both 2020 and 2021. The Titans are running it back with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry one last time, and Tennessee sported a respectable 6-6 record with Tannehill in the lineup and a 1-4 mark without him last season. Overall, the Titans are 36-19 for a .654 winning percentage with Tannehill as the starter during his four-year run in Tennessee.

Tannehill’s lingering ankle injury wrecked Tennessee’s season because third-round pick Malik Willis was nowhere close to being ready to play. The Titans should have better injury luck this season after they had the third-most adjusted games lost due to injury (per Football Outsiders). That included the most adjusted games lost at the EDGE position due to injury (per Football Outsiders). Harold Landry never played a snap because of a preseason ACL injury, and Bud Dupree once again struggled to stay on the field in his second and final season with the Titans. Tennessee will face the ninth-easiest schedule based on season win totals, and they won’t face a single opponent coming off their bye.

Reasons to Bet Under the Season Win Total

The Titans are a franchise that’s stuck in purgatory heading into 2023. They’re going to give it one last try to win a weak AFC South with Tannehill and Henry running the show on offense, but they also started to prepare for the future by selecting a plummeting Will Levis at the start of the second round. Tennessee faces its toughest stretch of games right out of the gates before its Week 7 bye. Vrabel could decide to pull the plug on Tannehill and make the switch to Levis if the Titans are under .500 through their first six games. New GM Ran Carthon could also shop Henry at the trade deadline around that same time if their season gets off to a bad start. Either way, it looks like 2023 will be the last year with both Tannehill and Henry leading this offense.

The Titans didn’t do much to try to improve this roster to contend this season with better players leaving than coming in during free agency. They need Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo to take significant steps forward, or else Tannehill and Levis will be throwing to the league’s worst receiving corps. Henry could be running behind the NFL’s worst offensive line, which was a mess last season before losing their best player Nate Davis to the Bears in free agency. The Titans handed the underachieving Andre Dillard $13 million in guaranteed money and drafted Peter Skoronski in the first round to try to quickly fix the group. The NFL didn’t cut them any favors with the schedule either. They lost a home date for their International Series game against the Ravens in Week 6, and they have to travel to Pittsburgh for Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

Notable Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Derrick Henry: rushing yards (1150.5), rushing TDs (9.5), OPOY (+2500), most rushing yards (+400)

  • Fantasy Points Projection — rushing yards (1265), rushing TDs (12)

Treylon Burks: receiving yards (725.5), most receiving yards (+7000)

  • Fantasy Points Projection — receiving yards (920), receiving TDs (4)

Best Bets and Leans


  • Tennessee Titans under 7.5 wins (-128, FanDuel)

It makes me a little uneasy to go against a Mike Vrabel team, but this team showed some significant flaws in the second half of last season, and the roster continued to deteriorate this off-season. The Titans have arguably the worst receivers and the worst offensive line heading into the season after this offense scored the fifth-fewest PPG (17.5) last season. Tennessee has a tough stretch of games before their Week 7 bye, and I wouldn’t be surprised if new GM Ran Carthon is trying to sell Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill around that time.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 64.3% clip last season and he owned the last undefeated team out of 3000 entries in Scott Fish Bowl 12.