A lack of NFL football, or football in general, is a terrible thing. But football is still hanging around, thanks to the USFL! And since DraftKings is offering DFS fantasy tournaments, it’s time to discuss the top plays and contrarian options so we can bink some USFL tournaments.
I’ll be going position by position, highlighting my favorite plays for tournaments, with a TL;DR included for those who don’t want to read my reasoning and just want the top-value plays. I’ll also include teams’ implied totals directly below, to help readers understand the offenses Vegas thinks will put the most points on the board.
Team Totals
Pittsburgh Maulers (19.0) @ Birmingham Stallions (26.5)
TL;DR
In the TL;DR, I’ll list out the top plays in order of value (according to me). This isn’t super strict, it does not factor in ownership, and in some cases, it’s arbitrary. It also doesn’t matter nearly as much as my readers think. What does matter is maximizing the correlations within your lineups, and making sure you include at least a few players on each tournament team who should be on the lower end of ownership (I highlight a few in my write-ups). Get creative!
Plays ranked in order, with tier 1 in bold, and assumes notable questionable players suit up…
Captain: Alex McGough, Davion Davis, Troy Williams, CJ Marable, Bailey Gaither, Isiah Hennie, Jace Sternberger, Deon Cain, Birmingham D/ST, Pittsburgh D/ST, Garrett Groshek
Flex: Alex McGough, Troy Williams, CJ Marable, Isiah Hennie, Jace Sternberger, Ricky Person (in blowouts), Davion Davis, Bailey Gaither, Garrett Groshek, Deon Cain, Chris Blewitt, Brandon Aubrey, Birmingham D/ST, Pittsburgh D/ST, Josh Simmons, Tre Walker, Adrian Hardy, Josh Johnson, Madre London
QB
Alex McGough ($12,800): McGough has arguably been the best spring football QB we’ve ever seen. Over his last four games, he’s thrown for over 280 yards three times (283.0 YPG average), while averaging 42.3 rushing YPG and 30.1 DraftKings FPG. For the purposes of this showdown slate, McGough is the top overall play by a country mile.
The only real concern with McGough is ownership. And, well, I think that’s a significant concern given how concentrated we’ve seen ownership among the top plays in spring football. I won’t be shocked if McGough’s captain ownership approaches 50%. He’s 2019 Lamar Jackson-levels of dominant right now. And we know Jackson has always pushed for massive captain ownership in NFL showdown slates – contests where ownership is generally flatter than spring football.
I can’t advocate for a full fade on McGough captain lineups based on ownership. He’s just too good. But I do think it’s important to recognize that there is massive leverage to be gained if he has a below-average game (he’s scored under 24.0 DraftKings points in five of his 11 games this season). And it’s also important to recognize the story that non-McGough captain teams tell. Do the Birmingham RBs steal all the TDs? Does Troy Williams have an excellent game that leads to a Pittsburgh upset? Does Davion Davis or Jace Sternberger have their best receiving game of the season? These are the questions we need to attempt to answer with our lineups that fade McGough in the captain spot.
Troy Williams ($10,200): It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Williams ceiling game, as he’s failed to cross 20.0 DraftKings points in his last six contests. His matchup is certainly compelling, as Birmingham has allowed the most total YPG this season (322.6) and the most passing YPG (220.0) since Week 6. In essence, this is arguably the best-possible matchup for Williams, who scored 21.0 DraftKings points (his 2nd-best game of the season) the last time these teams played.
When we combine Williams’ matchup with the premise that McGough could easily go over-owned in the captain spot, it’s easy to get behind some fliers on Williams’ captain teams. I’d consider him the clear-cut 2nd-best option in both the captain and flex positions, and I’ll attempt to target around 20% captain exposure and ~70% flex exposure in my portfolio this week.
RB
Weighted Opportunity through 10 weeks:
CJ Marable ($9,400): Marable has been remarkably consistent as of late, scoring at least 12.0 DraftKings points in each of his last seven games. Ricky Person emerging as a prominent figure in the backfield has limited Marable’s ceiling, but last week still suggested that Marable has a firm grip on the backfield. Prior to the Stallions’ semifinal contest turning into an absolute bloodbath, Marable and Person were splitting drives at a roughly 2-to-1 ratio (in favor of Marable) before Person took over for nearly the entire 2nd-half.
But even with minimal playing time, Marable still managed 12 touches for 77 yards and a score, leading to 14.7 DraftKings points. So, that means Marable is a reasonable flex play in almost any script, but his captain viability largely depends on Pittsburgh keeping this game close (which is certainly possible).
I like Marable as a sneaky captain in this plus matchup (Pittsburgh has allowed the 2nd-most rushing YPG and 3rd-most YPC since Week 6), but those lineups need some pieces from the Pittsburgh offense (unless you think Marable can rack up a tournament-winning captain score in ~one half in the event of a blowout). But he’s best used as a flex and is an intriguing pairing with Alex McGough, given Ricky Person averages just 0.6 targets per game (compared to 3.3 per game for Marable).
Garrett Groshek ($5,200): Groshek earned 16 touches (compared to 7 for Madre London) in the Maulers' semifinal victory last week. Crucially, Groshek dominated work near the goal line and would’ve scored two TDs and 21.0 DraftKings points had it not been for a goal-line penalty.
But that game was a massive outlier for Groshek, who didn’t exceed double-digit DraftKings points in any of his regular season contests. I wouldn’t consider Groshek captain viable, but he is likely to go under-owned in the flex, given this backfield committee (that Groshek has the clear edge in) and his inefficiency (2.6 YPC). He will need to fall into the end zone to get you there, but the team clearly preferred him in the goal-line role in their most important game of the season last week. And, I’d give a slight boost to Groshek in lineups that are absent Troy Williams, as Groshek’s 1.3 targets per game suggest the pair has almost no correlation.
Ricky Person ($3,000): Person set season-high marks in opportunities (10), yards (108), and DraftKings points (10.8) in a blowout victory last week. He’s the clear 2nd option to Marable (noted above), but he has serious juice in a blowout script. And a blowout looks likely this week, as the 7.5-point spread is one of the biggest we’ve seen in the USFL this season.
I’m mostly off Person in lineups that anticipate a close game (he averages just 3.8 FPG and 4.0 opportunities per game in his four ‘non-blowout’ games). But if we build lineups around a moderate-to-huge Birmingham victory, it’s hard to beat Person’s flex value at just $3,000. He could be argued as captain viable in those blowout scripts, but I wouldn’t entertain that unless I’m making double-digit lineups. I’ll likely end up overweight the field on Person, as a blowout feels like the most likely outcome here.
WR
Davion Davis ($10,400): Davis erupted for 25.0 DraftKings points and two scores last week, and he profiles as one of the top overall plays of the championship slate. Obviously, we can expect Davis to be a popular captain and flex option – but to me, he’s really only a captain consideration.
This season, Davis has averaged 22.6 DraftKings FPG in his six best games but just 3.9 FPG in his other five games. In other words: Davis is probably the most volatile player in the USFL and maybe all of spring football. So, I’ll be overweight the field on Davis captain exposure (around 20%) and play minimal Davis in the flex to capitalize on a potential ceiling game.
Isiah Hennie ($9,000): Hennie has been one of the most consistent WRs in spring football, scoring double-digit DraftKings points in 82% of his games while averaging 12.9 DraftKings FPG. But his ceiling hasn’t quite followed, as he’s scored more than 20.0 DraftKings points just once and more than 15.0 DraftKings points three times. We can certainly still argue that Hennie is captain viable as he’s clearly the leading WR in Pittsburgh, but he feels better as a flex play if we assume he’s one of the top-5 highest-owned captains on this slate.
Jace Sternberger ($8,200): Sternberger has scored a receiving TD in five straight games – the longest scoring streak in modern spring football history. His volume this season has been consistently good but never great, earning between 4 and 7 targets in every game. It’s difficult to see how Sternberger gets there as a captain play. His efficiency will take a hit from the matchup (Pittsburgh has been the league’s toughest pass defense since Week 6, allowing just 177.8 passing YPG), and he hasn’t shown the ability to earn high-end volume or post game-breaking scores (one game of more than 20.0 DraftKings points this year).
I’ll take my chances fading Sternbeger as a captain (he scored 1.5 fantasy points the last time these teams played), but his elite red zone usage and overall consistency warrants decent flex exposure.
Bailey Gaither ($7,600): Gaither isn’t a compelling play based on his recent performances (6.3 DK FPG over his last two games) or his previous ceiling outings (zero games with more than 14.5 DraftKings points), but he does stand out based on his underlying metrics. In the regular season, Gaither led the team in deep targets (9), deep receiving yards (108), and red zone targets per game (0.8). Isiah Hennie – who averaged just 0.8 more targets per game – will surely log ~3X Gaither’s captain ownership, but I’m not sure that’s right.
Gaither hasn’t posted a ceiling performance yet, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it came against a Birmingham defense that’s given up a league-leading 220.0 passing YPG since Week 6. Pittsburgh will need to throw as much as any game this season if we believe the 7.5-point spread, and Gaither could be the WR who breaks the slate if the Maulers’ passing volume is high enough. I’ll have ~10% captain exposure here, alongside some flex shares.
Josh Simmons ($1,600): Simmons has averaged 3.2 targets per game and 6.6 DraftKings FPG over his last five games – all respectable numbers for a player at his price tag. He’s splitting reps as Pittsburgh’s WR3 with Tre Walker and Ishmael Hyman (both decent salary relief plays), but a crucial tiebreaker is that Simmons returns kicks, leading the league in return yards (862). I’m fine with Simmons in a vacuum (he’s a slightly better play than Hyman and roughly the same as Walker), but he really jumps out as a pairing with the Pittsburgh D/ST. The salary savings you gain from this combo is enough to load up on the stars of the slate, and it’s guaranteed to be a rare pairing given the expected gamescript. I won’t have more than 5% of the Simmons/Pittsburgh D/ST combo, but that’s easily enough to be overweight the field.
Kicker and D/ST
I don’t have a great gauge on kicker ownership, but it’s rather obvious the Birmingham defense will be among the most popular flex plays of the slate due to this spread. And that also means the Pittsburgh defense will go under-owned, especially relative to their talent (league’s best D/ST by total YPG allowed and FPG scored).
Similarly, I would also expect Brandon Aubrey to be more popular than Chris Blewitt. Still, I’d expect the ownership gap between them to be much narrower than the ownership gap in these defenses.
Overall, I’ll target roughly 20-30% exposure for both kickers and defenses, which should give me natural leverage on the Pittsburgh D/ST and kicker.
