Week 7 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 7 DFS slate.

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 46.5)

Trends:

• Nick Chubb has never exceeded 24.0 FPs in losses of 6-points or more. Granted, if the Browns can keep it close, Chubb can still smash, as he’s averaged a surprising 22.5 FPG in his 11 losses since 2019 that were within 5-points.

• Still, Kareem Hunt remains an underrated play in this backfield. Hunt’s workload of 12.2 XFP/G, 3.7 red zone opportunities per game, and 0.6 XTD/G is quite similar to Chubb’s workload of 13.9 XFP/G, 3.3 red zone opportunities per game, and 0.7 XTD/G. The Key difference? Hunt is averaging 2.9 more targets per game (4.3).

• As an underdog, Hunt averages a solid 16.1 FPG since 2020 (12 instances) – and he’s exceeded 25.0 DraftKings FPs in 17% of those games.

• Amari Cooper has notoriously struggled on the road, averaging just 12.1 FPG in away games, compared to 17.2 FPG in his home games.

• Over the last 4 weeks among TEs, David Njoku has averaged 12.0 XFP/G (6th-best), 14.6 FPG (4th-best), 77.0 YPG (best), and 7.0 targets per game (5th-best). He’s also PFF’s highest-graded TE over that stretch (90.5 receiving grade) and is just the TE7 by DraftKings salary this week, cheaper than Kyle Pitts.

• Lamar Jackson as a home favorite averages an insane 29.0 FPG since 2019 (18 instances). For perspective, 29.0 FPG would be the greatest QB fantasy season of all time. He’s gone over 33.0 DraftKings points in 39% of those games.

• Nobody in this Ravens backfield is playable. Baltimore has just one instance of an RB exceeding 8.5 XFP in an individual week this season (JK Dobbins in Week 4).

• Only five TEs have exceeded 20.0 XFP in a game this season. Mark Andrews has done that a league-leading three times.

• Andrews has averaged 17.7 FPG in his 16 home wins since 2019. And he’s averaged 18.8 FPG in home wins over 5-points or more – a mark that’s equivalent to the 7th-greatest TE season of all-time.

Matchups:

• Cleveland has given up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+8.8) to opposing outside WRs this season. A potentially excellent matchup for Rashod Bateman – if he plays.

• Cleveland is also the league’s worst run defense, at least according to PFF run defense grades (38.0). They are also giving up the 7th-highest YPC (5.0). Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ ground game should have no problem putting up numbers in this contest.

• Baltimore has been incredibly weak against slot WRs, giving up +7.0 schedule-adjusted FPG (2nd-worst). That’s good news for David Bell, but he only has 8 targets on the season despite leading the team in slot routes.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Marcus Mariota ranks 3rd in QB rushing production, averaging a solid 6.4 rushing FPG. With that said, he hasn’t exceeded 26 pass attempts since Week 1, and the Falcons are running the 7th-fewest plays per game (58.8). He’s entirely dependent on his rushing production for any worthwhile fantasy performances.

• In Week 6, Drake London’s route share was 100%, while Kyle Pitts’ was 83%. Great, right? Well, Mariota only dropped back 17 times, attempting just 14 passes.

• The Falcons’ pass rate over expected over the last three weeks is -17.4% – by far the lowest in the NFL. Extremely bad news for Pitts and London.

• Tee Higgins is 100% healthy. In Week 6, he ran a route on 90% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks and tied for the team lead with 9 targets.

• And, maybe the return of Higgins contributed to the Bengals finally airing the ball out. Cincinnati led the league in Week 6 pass rate over expectation (+19.2%). Remember that last season, Cincinnati had the 2nd-highest pass rate over the final four weeks of the season (64%) – which helped propel them to the Super Bowl. With Zac Taylor on the hot seat and the receivers fully healthy, I think a continuation of a pass-happy offense for Cincy is extremely likely.

• Joe Mixon’s workload has fallen off a bit over the last two weeks, as he’s averaged just 12.5 XFP/G, compared to 23.3 XFP/G in the first four weeks of the season.

• With that said, Mixon averages 25.3 FPG in his nine home wins since 2019, so he’s still very in play this week given the Bengals’ 72% implied win probability.

• Joe Burrow has also smashed in wins historically, averaging 24.8 FPG (~QB2).

Matchups:

• Atlanta is a great matchup for opposing WRs, allowing +8.0 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-most) and 331.1 FPs (5th-most).

• Similarly, ATL is also a great matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG (4th-worst).

• The Falcons are one of the league’s top pass funnel defenses, allowing a +6.8% pass rate over expectation (2nd-highest).

• The Bengals have been a brutal matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing -9.1 schedule-adjusted FPG (toughest).

Detroit Lions (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 48.0)

Trends:

• D’Andre Swift appears likely to return this week. In the first two weeks of the season, Swift looked incredible, leading his position in FPG over expected (+9.7), YPC (10.0), and ranking 2nd in PFF rushing grades (84.6). He’s the same price in Week 6 ($6,800) as in Week 1.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown should also return this week. Before his injury, he had earned double-digit targets in 8 consecutive games (something Cooper Kupp had never done) while averaging 26.3 FPG. He’s the cheapest he’s been since Week 3 ($7,100 DraftKings salary).

• Jared Goff averages just 16.7 FPG in his 15 career losses with Detroit, compared to 24.1 FPG in his 4 career wins. The Lions implied win probability this week is 29%.

• It looks like Dak Prescott will play in this game. He averages an impressive 26.8 FPG in wins of 6-points or more since 2019.

• I would expect the Cowboys' pass rate to increase with Prescott back, given they averaged a -6.8% pass rate over expectation with Cooper Rush under center, compared to 0.8% in the lone game Prescott played in.

• CeeDee Lamb’s volume has been incredibly consistent, even without Prescott. Lamb joins Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Marquise Brown as the only WRs to earn at least 12.0 XFP in each of their games this season.

• Michael Gallup is back to a full-time role, earning 13.5 XFP and an 81% route share in Week 6.

• Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard continue to eat into each other's usage, as there has only been one instance of either RB exceeding 14.0 XFP in an individual game (Pollard in Week 2).

• Peyton Hendershot is a very interesting punt option if Dalton Schultz misses Week 7. Hendershot earned a 61% route share in Week 6 alongside 11.2 XFP – the 9th-best workload of any Week 6 TE. He costs just $2,500 on DraftKings this week.

Matchups:

• Dallas has been a very tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing -5.7 schedule-adjusted FPG (4th-toughest).

• And, by schedule-adjusted FPG, Dallas ranks 9th-toughest against opposing RBs, and 10th-toughest against opposing WRs. A tough matchup for the Detroit defense.

• Detriot, on the other hand, has been the 3rd-best matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG (+5.9) and the 5th-best matchup for opposing RBs (+5.4).

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Washington Commanders (O/U: 41.5)

Trends:

• It’s difficult to consider Aaron Rodgers as in play for DFS, as he averages just 19.8 FPG in wins with a total of 43.0 or lower since 2019, compared to 23.4 FPG outside that split.

• Aaron Jones has long been one of the win/loss sensitive players at the RB position, averaging 19.5 FPG in wins, compared to just 9.2 FPG in losses since 2019.

• With that said, AJ Dillon’s usage finally returned to a more normal level, as he recorded 56% of backfield XFP after earning just 16% in Week 6.

• Romeo Doubs is right there with Allen Lazard as the Packers WR1. Over the last three weeks, Doubs has earned 13.8 XFP/G (compared to 14.8 for Lazard) and 7.3 targets per game (compared to 8.3 for Lazard). The key difference? Doubs is $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings this week.

• Brian Robinson led the Commanders' backfield in Week 6, earning 11.9 XFP. Assuming this remains a three-man committee moving forward, I don’t think anyone here carries significant-enough upside to warrant considering them in DFS.

• With that said, I think Taylor Heinicke starting this week is good news for JD McKissic, as Heinicke’s 25% RB target rate ranks 12th-highest among the 86 QBs since 2017 with at least 100 pass attempts.

• And, Heinicke starting is also good news for Terry McLaurin. In his 7 career games with Heinicke, McLaurin averaged 17.0 FPG, compared to just 12.9 FPG without Heinicke.

• And I think Heinicke is a bit underrated for fantasy overall, as he’s exceeded 20.0 FPs in 25% of his career starts – which is at least a 4X of his Week 7 DraftKings salary ($5,000).

Matchups:

• Washington is by far the best matchup for opposing WRs, allowing +11.6 schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.5 more than the No. 2 team) while also allowing the 5th-most FPs (234.2) to opposing WRs.

• The Commanders are also a strong matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +4.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (5th-worst).

• Green Bay has been the 8th-toughest team for opposing QBs, allowing -3.1 schedule-adjusted FPG.

• GB is also the 8th-toughest team against opposing WRs, allowing -4.7 schedule-adjusted FPG. They rank 6th-toughest against TEs, allowing -3.4 schedule-adjusted FPG.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers (O/U: 40.5)

Trends:

• Tom Brady has historically crushed these spots, averaging 25.4 FPG when favored by 7.0-points or more, and averaging 26.1 FPG in wins of 7-points or more.

• A similar trend can be noted for Leonard Fournette, who has averaged 23.5 FPG whe favored by 7.0-points or more since joining Tampa Bay, compared to 16.5 FPG outside of that split.

• I’m leaning towards Chris Godwin being back to a full-time player after he logged an 85% route share in Week 6. Still, there is a risk he’s phased out in games that Tampa Bay is winning by multiple scores, as I noted last week that he had only earned a 32% snap share when Tampa played with the lead in Weeks 4 and 5.

• Cade Otton is Tampa’s bell cow TE until Cameron Brate returns from his concussion. In Week 5, Otton logged a 94% snap share, a team-leading 93% route share, and 7 targets for a 13% target share. At least on DraftKings, Otton ($2,700) is a screaming value in his current role with Tampa once again throwing the ball at a top-5 rate.

• PJ Walker had a 0.2 aDOT on Sunday, by far the lowest aDOT I’ve ever seen from a QB. The CAR offense remains one of the worst in the NFL, even with Baker Mayfield out.

• The only player who likely benefits from that incredibly depressing passing game is Christian McCaffrey, who runs the shortest routes on the team (-0.2 aDOT).

• Since 2019, CMC has averaged an impressive 30.2 FPG when Carolina was an underdog by 6-points or more (7 instances).

Matchups:

• By schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.1) Carolina is the 3rd-best matchup for opposing RBs. They rank 8th-worst by FPG allowed (25.4)

• Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is by far the worst matchup for opposing RBs, allowing -4.2 schedule-adjusted FPG.

New York Giants (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

• Daniel Jones has been a respectable fantasy QB thus far. He ranks 5th among QBs in rushing FPG (5.9, better than Kyler Murray and Justin Fields). And over the last three weeks, he is PFF’s 5th-highest graded passer (77.4).

• And we can’t forget that Jones has shown solid upside in the past, going over 28.0 FPs in 12% of his 43 career starts. Granted, he hasn’t exceeded 22.0 FPs in a single game this season – but the potential is there.

• Saquon Barkley is currently the RB2 by FPG (20.4), but he has been fairly sensitive to winning games in his career. Barkley averages 16.6 FPG in his 35 career losses, compared to 22.8 FPG in his 15 career wins. The Giants implied win probability this week is 43%.

• Wan’Dale Robinson was eased back in coming off an injury in Week 6, running just 11 routes, but earning an encouraging 4 targets while finishing with the 2nd-most receiving yards (37) on the team, and scoring a TD.

• On a per-route basis, Wan’Dale Robinson (0.33) is the most targeted Giants WR. Given the state of the Giants WR corps, I would figure Robinson pushes for close to a full-time role in Week 7 if we assume his health continues to trend upwards. That could result in strong volume at just a $4,500 DraftKings price tag.

• Travis Etienne has out-snapped James Robinson 67 to 54 over the last two weeks while earning a better workload over that same timespan (12.8 XFP/G to 10.1). With that said, this is still a gross committee, and it’s going to be very difficult to trust Etienne’s upside with JRob stealing ~60% of red zone snaps.

• By XFP/G, Evan Engram (114.0) is the TE4 over the last two weeks. His workload has been streaky, earning 14.1 XFP/G in his best three games, but just 5.8 XFP/G in his three worst games.

• Over the last two weeks, Engram has been the first read on 27% of Jacksonville’s pass plays – the 3rd-best mark among all TEs.

• Trevor Lawrence is a solid fantasy QB now. His best two fantasy outings ever have come this season, in Weeks 3 and 6. He’s the QB12 by FPG this year, ahead of Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady.

Matchups:

• I noted above that Evan Engram’s usage has been rather streaky, but I do think it’s worthwhile to note that his top-3 games from a usage standpoint all came against bottom-10 teams by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to TEs. The New York Giants rank 6th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to TEs (+3.8).

• Jacksonville is the 4th-toughest team against TEs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-4.8).

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

• Matt Ryan threw the 2nd-most pass attempts of his career on Sunday (58), resulting in 389 passing yards, 3 TDs, and 27.2 FPs – his best fantasy performance since Week 9 of last season.

• Week 6 also saw by far the Colts’ highest pass rate over expectation of the entire season (+14.2%). It’s difficult to imagine that continues into Week 7 with Jonathan Taylor likely back.

• And, assuming Taylor is back, this game will feature a pair of runners who are extremely gamescript sensitive. Taylor averages just 14.9 FPG in losses compared to 25.6 FPG in wins since 2021, while Derrick Henry averages 13.2 FPG in losses but 25.1 FPG in wins since 2019. The Titans implied win probability this week is 60%.

• It’s incredibly difficult to consider any TEN WR fantasy relevant. Robert Woods is the team’s target leader over the last two weeks, with a grand total of 8 targets.

Matchups:

• IND has been the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-6.3). A bad sign for both Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods, who both run about one third of their routes from the slot.

• The Titans are an excellent matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+8.7) and +45.4 more fantasy points than expected (worst). Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman both look like excellent plays this week.

• TEN is also weak against opposing TEs, allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+5.4). Still, it’s tough to know which Colts’ TE to target here, as no IND TE has exceeded 10.5 XFP in an individual game this season.

Houston Texans (+7) @ Las Vegas Raiders (O/U: 45.5)

Trends:

• Davis Mills, somewhat shockingly, is PFF’s 13th-highest-graded passer this year (70.1 passing grade) – posting a better grade than Joe Burrow (67.4).

• While Mills’ counting stats don’t provide a ton of optimism, he has shown solid upside in the past relative to his $5,000 Week 7 DraftKings price tag. Mills has earned at least 21.0 FPs in three of his 16 career starts, which translates to at least a 4X of his Week 7 salary in 19% of games since 2021.

• Joe Burrow has 4Xed his Week 7 salary in 18% of games since the start of 2021. And Patrick Mahomes (17%) and Justin Herbert (17%) also both rank below Mills in that metric. Mills shapes up as a fun contrarian play, as 1%-owned QBs go.

• From the XFP Report: [From Weeks 3 through 6], Dameon Pierce has finished 6th, 12th, and then (last week) 2nd among all RBs in XFP. Over this span, Pierce ranks 3rd in carries (61), 8th in targets (14), 3rd in team XFP% (30.8%), 10th in backfield XFP (70%), 10th in XTD (2.8), 3rd in XFP (20.8 XFP/G), and 5th in fantasy points scored (21.4 FPG).

• Among slate-eligible WRs, Brandin Cooks ranks 9th in XFP/G (15.1) and 9th in targets per game (8.6) – yet he ranks as the WR16 by DraftKings salary ($6,000).

• From The XFP Report: Over the last four weeks, Josh Jacobs is averaging: 21.7 carries per game (2nd-most), 5.7 targets per game (7th-most), 21.1 XFP/G (2nd-most), and 26.5 FPG (2nd-most). And the usage stats are all similarly elite: 79% snap share (4th-most), 90% RB carry share (3rd-most), 58% route share (3rd-most), 17.1% target share (6th-most), 81% backfield XFP% (2nd-most). He’s easily the top RB value of the Week priced as the RB11 on DraftKings ($6,500).

• And Jacobs has historically crushed these spots, averaging 20.1 FPG in Raiders wins across his career (22 instances). The Raiders implied win probability this week is 76%.

• Davante Adams has averaged a mediocre (for him) 23.8 DraftKings FPG when favored by 6.0-points or more over the last three seasons. Still, he’s gone over 33.0 DraftKings FPG in 33% of those games.

Matchups:

• Las Vegas is the top matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +8.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (most), and +4.7 schedule-adjusted passing FPG (4th-most). A strong matchup for Davis Mills.

• Further encouraging the Texans to lean into the pass, LV has allowed the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-2.8) to opposing RBs.

• And, by pass rate allowed over expectation (+3.2%), the Raiders' defense is the 9th-ranked pass funnel.

• Houston is an outstanding matchup for opposing RBs, allowing +4.8 schedule-adjusted FPG (worst), ranking 2nd-worst in PFF run defense grades (40.5), and allowing a league-leading 30.4 FPG. It’s difficult to think of a better matchup for bell cow Josh Jacobs.

New York Jets (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 38.5)

Trends:

• From an offensive perspective, this is the worst game of the slate. The 38.5 total is 2.0-points lower than the next-lowest game, and 6.8-points lower than the average main slate total (45.3).

• Breece Hall ($6,200, RB13) is still aggressively underpriced. Over the last three weeks, he ranks 4th among RBs in FPG (19.2), 9th in XFP/G (18.1), 2nd in red zone opportunities per game (5.0), and first in goal line opportunities per game (2.3).

• There has only been one instance of a Jets’ WR or TE exceeding double-digit XFP in a game (Corey Davis in Week 4) since Zach Wilson took over in Week 4.

• Russell Wilson is playing really, really bad. Among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks, he ranks 5th-worst in PFF passing grades (58.7), 11th-worst in catchable throw rate (80%), 11th-worst in EPA per play (-0.1), and 8th-worst in fantasy points per dropback (0.36).

• As a result, Broncos pass catchers, specifically Jerry Jeudy, aren’t seeing catchable passes.

• Melvin Gordon was inexplicably benched on MNF. You could argue Latavius Murray is somewhat in play at $5,200 after leading the backfield in Week 6 XFP (8.6), but I don’t have much faith here.

• Greg Dulcich ($2,500) is easily the top punt TE play of the week. He dominated TE routes for Denver in Week 6, earning a 75% route share (next-closest DEN TE was at 15%) and recording the 2nd-best workload of any DEN WR or TE (7.3 XFP).

Matchups:

• The DEN defense is an absolutely brutal matchup across the board. By schedule-adjusted FPG, they rank 3rd-toughest against QBs (-6.3), 7th-toughest against RBs (-2.5), 2nd-toughest against WRs (-7.9), and 12th-toughest against TEs (-1.8).

• DEN doesn’t give up anything deep, ranking 3rd-toughest by the percentage of throws to go 15 or more yards (5.3%). We saw Austin Ekeler earn the best workload (31.0 XFP) of any RB in any game this season in Week 6, thanks to Denver’s incredibly tough pass coverage downfield. Schematically, this sets up well for Breece Hall.

• NYJ is the 7th-toughest matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-3.3). They are also the 8th-toughest team against opposing TEs (-3.0)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 48.5)

Trends:

• Travis Kelce has averaged 22.1 DraftKings FPG as a favorite in games with a total over 47.0 over the last three seasons – scoring over 30.0 DraftKings points in 14% of those games.

• Over the last three seasons, Patrick Mahomes has averaged an impressive 27.3 FPG as a road favorite.

• Mecole Hardman leads all KC WRs in XFP/G over the last two weeks (11.6). But I’m not sure we can put much weight on that given his route share has stayed at a rather pathetic 44% over that span.

• It’s difficult to consider any KC RB playable, especially after last week, when Jerrick McKinnon earned 37% of backfield XFP, Clyde Edwards-Helaire earned 31%, and Isaiah Pacheco earned 32%.

• George Kittle’s usage continues to trend upward. By XFP, he’s earned 5.8 (Week 3), 7.8, 8.7, and 16.6 (Week 6). By route share, he’s earned 67% (Week 3), 64%, 81%, and 90% (Week 6). And by target share, he’s earned 17% (Week 3), 16%, 20%, and 24% (Week 6). Scott Barrett does a great job of highlighting Kittle’s rest-of-season upside here.

• Jeff Wilson has earned at least 12 carries in 66% of his games this season. Historically, Wilson averages 16.8 FPG in his 12 career games with 12 or more carries – a mark that would rank 10th-best among slate-eligible RBs, yet Wilson is priced as the RB20 by DraftKings salary ($5,800).

• Wilson also averages 18.6 FPG in his seven career games as an underdog when he sees 12 or more carries, suggesting there is still solid upside even in the face of negative gamescript this week.

• Since 2021, Deebo Samuel has averaged 21.1 FPG in losses of 3-points or more, compared to 19.0 FPG outside of that split. The reason? Samuel averages +3.7 more targets per game in that split (10.4 targets per game).

Matchups:

• KC is one of the best matchups for opposing pocket passers, allowing +5.6 schedule-adjusted passing FPG (3rd-worst).

• The Chiefs have also been a strong matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.3), and the most total FPs (154.4).

• If you needed another reason to avoid KC RBs, San Francisco has been the 10th-toughest team against opposing RBs by schedule-adjusted FPG (-2.0). They also rank 9th-toughest by PFF run-defense grades.

Seattle Seahawks (+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (O/U: 51.0)

Trends:

• Justin Herbert has averaged a very impressive 28.4 FPG in his nine career wins in games with a total of 48.0 or higher. The Chargers implied win probability this week is 74%.

• Austin Ekeler has averaged a solid 22.6 DraftKings FPG when the Chargers implied team total is over 26.0 over the last two years (10 instances). He’s gone over 32.0 DraftKings points in 20% of those games.

• Josh Palmer returned to a strong workload in Week 6, after a few sub-par weeks due to an ankle injury. Palmer’s 21.4 XFP in Week 6 was the 4th-best workload among all WRs.

• Granted, Palmer’s value is at least somewhat dependent on Keenan Allen’s status. Palmer averages a solid 15.3 FPG and 16.8 XFP/G in his four healthy games without Allen – which would rank 6th-best and 4th-best among slate-eligible WRs. Despite this, he’s priced as the WR31 on DraftKings ($5,000).

• Ken Walker is a glaring value this week priced as the RB20 ($5,800) on DraftKings. In Seattle’s Week 6 victory over the Cardinals, Walker played on 71% of the team’s snaps (9th-most on the week), earning 70% of the carries out of the backfield (6th-most). He took all three of the team’s targets out of the backfield but netted just a 10% team target share (17th-most) on a 37% route share (24th-most).

• DK Metcalf’s workload (16.4 XFP/G) is significantly better than Tyler Lockett’s (12.6 XFP/G) granted their season results to date still don’t reflect that.

• That said, Lockett still has the best upside of any WR on the team. Since 2018, Lockett has played in 27 games with a total of 49.0 or higher, and he’s gone over 40.0 DraftKings points in 11% of those contests while falling under 20.0 DraftKings points in 78% of those games.

Matchups:

• By schedule-adjusted FPG, LAC is the 6th-best matchup for opposing RBs (+3.4) and the 6th-best matchup for opposing outside WRs (+6.8). A strong matchup for Ken Walker and the duo of SEA WRs.

• The LAC run defense has also given up the 2nd-highest YPC (5.6), the most yards after contact per attempt (3.7), and the 4th-highest percentage of runs of 15 or more yards (7.4%).

• The Seahawks' defense is the definition of a run funnel, allowing the 3rd-lowest pass rate over expectation (-6%), the 6th-highest YPC (5.1), and the most yards after contact (569).

• Seattle has also been a great matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+7.6). Granted, a large portion of that has come on the ground, as they rank as the worst defense by schedule-adjusted QB rushing FPG (+4.9) but just 8th-worst by schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed (+2.7).