Statistically Significant: Rushing Scheme Fits

​​

This will be a very different entry in the Statistically Significant series. I’ll immediately punt on the question of “how predictive is all of this for fantasy football?” That’s because it’s very hard to objectively determine what counts as a “scheme fit” with numbers on a spreadsheet alone.

Such a task would be massively complicated by coaching changes, coaches adapting to their personnel rather than sticking with one primary scheme, and the myriad other factors that affect YPC or any other metric you’d use to evaluate whether a scheme fit was “successful” or good for fantasy football.

(I will, however, link the tweet below, which compares the predictiveness of some scheme-based stats to most everything else in the Fantasy Points Data Suite, but obviously can’t account for everything I just listed at the individual level.)

Don’t get me wrong; I think scheme fit matters, as do NFL teams. But this topic just doesn’t lend itself very well to quantifying how much, as we usually do here. I’m mostly writing about it because I think it’s cool, interesting, and underutilized in the fantasy space. Hopefully, I’m allowed to have a little fun here.

I’m also going to frequently refer to Jacob Gibbs’ excellent recent work on schematic fits among the 2025 rookie class. Jacob has long been one of my favorite follows, and I highly recommend signing up for his free email newsletter.

Let’s get into it.

Run Concepts Overview

I won’t tell you that any particular run concept is the “best.” They all have upsides and downsides while requiring different personnel to be utilized to their maximum effectiveness. But I would like to provide some light background on these concepts and how they’ve played out differently in the NFL over the past few seasons.

Very broadly, the inside zone focuses on blocking first-level defenders (often with double teams) to give the running back a chance to run between the tackles and read where to cut. In practice at the NFL level, inside zone generates the fewest negative or “stuffed” plays, but it also has the least “upside” on a per-play basis. Relative to the other concepts we’re discussing today, it rarely generates explosive plays (because the RB is running up the middle into a lot of defenders). Still, it is a “low-risk” option that can keep an offense on schedule. (And inside zone plays do look a bit better overall when you control for short-yardage situations.)

Outside zone can use similar blocking assignment techniques, but flips the angle blockers take to let the RB look for an outside lane first. The risk-reward profile is also flipped compared to inside zone; outside zone runs had over a quarter of their production come on explosive plays of 15+ yards over the past four seasons, but also sport the highest stuff rate. Kyle Shanahan is today’s most prolific outside zone play caller.

Finally, man/gap concepts (an umbrella term under which we lump together man/duo, power, counter, draw, trap, and pull lead) generally employ a lead blocker and require less reading of defenders by the RB. In practice, these plays rest between inside and outside zone in terms of stuff risk, but have averaged the most YPC of our three categories over the past four seasons.

Let’s take a look at which teams and coaches we can expect to deploy each of these concepts the most.

Teams With Heavy Schematic Tendencies

• Outside Zone: The Falcons (by far), Saints, 49ers, Texans, Jets, Lions, Dolphins, and Vikings deployed a lot of outside zone. You’ll notice that these are most of the league’s “McShanahan” tree offenses. I anticipate schematic changes for the Saints and Texans, which I’ll discuss below.

• Man/Gap: The Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Colts, Patriots, Bears, Chargers, Buccaneers, Rams, Commanders, and Seahawks all primarily utilized man/gap in 2024. Due to their respective coaching changes, we’ll take a closer look at the Bears, Patriots, and Seahawks below.

• Inside Zone: The Cowboys, Steelers, Raiders, Bengals, Chiefs, and Eagles led the way in inside zone usage last year. The Cowboys and Steelers supplemented this with outside zone, while the latter four teams also deployed some man/gap. The Chip Kelly and Ashton Jeanty-led Raiders are the only team in this group I’d expect to implement significant changes in their scheme. However, we’ll take a quick look at the new members of a few of these backfields.

Houston Texans (from outside zone to balanced)

Joe Mixon, Woody Marks, Dameon Pierce, and Nick Chubb

The Texans could implement more man/gap concepts or at least be more balanced in their scheme under new OC Nick Caley. He told the Houston Chronicle he wanted the Texans to be a “game-plan team” and that “if that meant we were going to run duo and gap schemes and run the ball 45 times a game to win the game, then that’s what we were going to do.” Caley was also notably one of the coaches Sean McVay leaned on to transition his run game into a more gap-heavy scheme. Compared to the team's ranking 4th in outside zone usage and 25th in man/gap usage under Bobby Slowik in 2024, this could signal a significant shift.

That could well help Joe Mixon’s efficiency. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 4.24 YPC on man/gap concepts to just 3.51 YPC on zone (nearly a ~21% boost). Only 33.5% of his carries came on man/gap in 2024 (37th of 46 qualifying RBs) despite averaging 4.41 YPC on those plays (~36% more than on zone plays).

But a transition away from a zone-heavy scheme could also be a double-edged sword for Mixon, because the Texans’ other backs have even more dramatic splits in their favor. Round 4 rookie Woody Marks was a significantly better man rusher in college; perhaps that pick is further proof of the Texans’ intention to move away from being so zone-heavy. Marks is probably the smartest Mixon handcuff.

But this could also be huge for — say it with me — Dameon Pierce. For anyone who doesn’t remember, Pierce had a surprise rookie breakout campaign, averaging 13.0 FPG (RB21) in a Pep Hamilton offense that ran man/gap 52% of the time (would have ranked behind only the Cardinals in 2024).

But the following year, Pierce was a famously poor fit for Bobby Slowik’s zone-heavy scheme, running for a pathetic 2.19 YPC on those concepts in 2023. That likely pushed the Texans to trade for Mixon in the first place. Pierce is probably cooked as a former Day 3 pick to whom the current Texans regime has no attachments, but now that the team won’t actively be forcing a zone scheme, he is a real option they could use if they want to spell Mixon for any reason.

This leaves us in a strange spot with Mixon. He could benefit from a scheme change, but it would also make his backfield competition significantly more viable than in 2024. He projects well for us, but I feel much safer clicking Chuba Hubbard or Ken Walker after his RB16 Underdog ADP, particularly after Mixon was spotted in a walking boot. And the Texans have created even more uncertainty in this backfield by signing Nick Chubb (washed as he may be), another capable man/gap runner (5.19 YPC on those concepts in 2022).

New Orleans Saints (from outside zone to balanced)

Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and Devin Neal

Nearly 54% of Alvin Kamara’s rush attempts came on outside zone last year, a large part of why he had his most efficient season on the ground since 2020. Kamara averaged just 3.87 YPC from 2021-23 before it jumped to 4.17 YPC overall or 4.50 YPC on outside zone in 2024.

New Saints HC Kellen Moore is an intelligent play caller, but based on his history, I highly doubt he’ll run as much outside zone as Klint Kubiak. Moore hasn’t used it on more than 26% of his run plays in any season since 2021, spanning three teams and four relevant RBs.

The toughest question for Kamara faders to answer remains “who else?” I’m entirely unconvinced by Kendre Miller, who has only 38 career carries on non-outside zone concepts, on which he’s averaged just 3.95 YPC.

Round 5 rookie Devin Neal is perhaps more promising as a fit for Moore’s diverse play calling tendencies, having been equally efficient on both man and zone concepts in college. We’re still talking about a Day 3 pick who lacks much explosiveness (registering just a 48th percentile SPORQ score), but Brett Whitefield had a Round 3 grade on Neal, liked his pass-catching ability, and noted he’d fit well in a man/gap scheme. Especially with Derek Carr retired and the Saints likely starting Round 2 rookie Tyler Shough in Week 1, I suspect Moore will want to get a look at Neal during a tanking season.

But honestly, even if we factor in a likely step back in screen usage compared to Kamara’s 2024, his rapidly falling RB21 Underdog ADP will eventually price all of my concerns out. I’ll have no problem clicking last year’s XFP/G leader on RB-needy teams if the alternatives become limited to players like David Montgomery and Kaleb Johnson.

Seattle Seahawks (from man/gap to outside zone)

Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet

Though Kamara is about to lose all of the efficiency gains associated with new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak’s outside zone scheme, Ken Walker is about to benefit from them. Walker averages 4.54 career YPC on outside zone, reflecting a ~13% efficiency boost compared to all other carries. In contrast, Zach Charbonnet has averaged just 3.67 career YPC on outside zone, ~21% less than his average on other carries.

The boom-or-bust nature of outside zone also cleanly dovetails with Walker’s play style. As I discussed at the top of this article, outside zone possesses high stuff and explosive play rates. That’s also true of Walker, who ranks top-5 in percent of yards gained on big plays since entering the NFL while also ranking in the top half of the league in stuff rate each season.

Most importantly, Klint Kubiak and the rest of the Seahawks’ organization seem to agree with me. Get Zach Charbonnet out of your head.

I’ve already written about Walker’s many other virtues (including his potential to work in the screen game and his evolution into a three-down back) at length this offseason, so I won’t repeat myself here. I’ll just reaffirm that so long as he remains the RB20 by Underdog ADP, he’ll be my favorite value on the entire board.

Chicago Bears (from man/gap to outside zone…maybe?)

D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Kyle Monangai

When Ben Johnson last coached D’Andre Swift in 2022, he implemented an even more man/gap-heavy scheme than the Bears did in 2024, using it on 50.4% of the team’s rush attempts. He shifted to more outside zone in recent years with Jahmyr Gibbs (which I’d guess is his preferred style based on the Lions’ backfield moves), but if Swift is to remain the lead back in Chicago, I’d trust Johnson to set him up to succeed.

That would mean returning to his earlier man/gap ways. Swift was +22% more efficient on man/gap than on zone concepts in 2024, and similar was true when he had the most efficient season of his career under Johnson in 2022. Swift’s 6.05 YPC on man/gap attempts that year ranked top-3 in the NFL.

But then again, Swift averaged a career-low 7.1 rush attempts per game in that season. If you think Johnson was among the Lions’ coaches who believed Swift lacked toughness or that he has no intention of building his scheme around Swift, the most likely beneficiary (currently on the roster) would be Roschon Johnson, not rookie Kyle Monangai.

Johnson averaged 5.27 YPC on outside zone plays as a rookie (albeit on a small 22-attempt sample) and has been about 12% more efficient on zone plays overall than man/gap over his NFL career. That compares very favorably to Swift’s dreadful 3.18 career YPC on outside zone or to Monangai’s worse college efficiency on zone runs. Suppose we limit our analysis to players on the roster. In that case, Johnson is the cheap flyer I’d prefer to take, especially when remembering his college efficiency profile and Brett Whitefield comping him to David Montgomery (another Ben Johnson favorite).

Expanding to free agent RBs and potential trade targets, J.K. Dobbins poses a similar issue to Swift in that he averaged just 3.73 YPC on outside zone last year (compared to 4.85 YPC on all other carries). Breece Hall and Travis Etienne have respectively averaged just 3.55 and 3.83 YPC on outside zone over the past two seasons, and Etienne in particular hasn’t been used on those concepts very often in the NFL. This isn’t to say the Bears won’t make a move for one of these RBs, just that they wouldn’t be clear answers for what I’m assuming Ben Johnson’s preferred scheme to be.

On balance, I’m fine with taking shots on Swift at ADP (RB27), but Johnson (RB52) appears an exciting flyer to me. I plan for him to make up the bulk of my exposure to this backfield early in the summer.

New England Patriots (from man/gap to even more man/gap)

TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Antonio Gibson

Over each of his past three seasons as a play caller, Josh McDaniels deployed man/gap runs on no fewer than 42% of his team’s rush attempts. He was at 69% the last time he was with the Patriots in 2021. That would have easily led the NFL in man/gap usage among last season’s teams.

Per Gibbs, Round 2 rookie TreVeyon Henderson was one of the most efficient man/gap runners in college football. That and Henderson’s pass-catching skills explain the early pick the Patriots spent; McDaniels has a long history of heavily targeting his backfields. Relatedly, Henderson is already inside my top-10 dynasty RBs.

In fairness, Fantasy Points scouting genius Brett Whitefield believes Henderson’s traits are best-suited instead to an outside zone scheme at the next level. Moreover, we’ve already seen Rhamondre Stevenson succeed in McDaniels’ scheme. He averaged 4.70 YPC under him on man/gap concepts in 2021, which would have ranked top-15 last year. (And even under former OC Alex Van Pelt in 2024, Stevenson was +34% more efficient running man/gap than zone.)

This does give me some slight pause on Henderson (at his ~RB21 Underdog ADP) in redraft, especially in light of HC Mike Vrabel’s recent personal praise of Stevenson. However, Stevenson was lightly utilized by McDaniels as a rookie, particularly on high-value touches in the passing game and at the goal line. Who captures those is by far the most crucial question, given how this backfield is priced.

If the Patriots indeed go from merely man/gap leaning to leading the league in usage of those concepts, Antonio Gibson is probably the odd man out here. Although he was fine on man/gap in 2024, prior to that, he’d never averaged over 4.0 YPC on such plays in any season since 2021. Most of his big plays last year came on outside zone (5.53 YPC).

Quick-Hit Thoughts on Other Backfields with Veteran Moving Pieces

• The Cowboys led the NFL in inside zone rate last year (33%) and ranked bottom-6 in man/gap rate (30%). His splits aren’t particularly eye-catching, but Javonte Williams was most efficient on inside zone (3.87 YPC) compared to outside zone (3.58 YPC) or man/gap (3.64 YPC) last season.

• The Chiefs ranked bottom-8 in outside zone rate in 2024. That’s not great for newcomer and depth chart hopeful Elijah Mitchell, who averaged 5.77 YPC on outside zone but just 3.89 YPC on all other carries in his career 2021 season. (This is likely also related to Kyle Shanahan’s strengths as an outside zone play caller, but whatever the case, the fit isn’t obvious to me here.)

• The Vikings traded for another former Shanahan back in Jordan Mason this offseason. This fit makes a lot more sense; the Vikings ranked top-8 in outside zone rate last season along with the 49ers. But Mason also brings additional schematic versatility, having averaged 5.65 YPC on man/gap plays last season (6th-best). The Vikings ran nearly as much man/gap as outside zone last year. I’m ultimately skeptical of Mason’s RB34 Underdog ADP (on which I expanded here), but this could be fun from a real-life perspective.