DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.
But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 6 DFS slate.
Baltimore Ravens (-5) @ New York Giants (O/U: 45.0)
Trends:
Believe it or not, Daniel Jones has been fantasy’s 3rd-most effective rushing QB this season, averaging 7.0 rushing FPG (the 30th-most all-time) – more than Josh Allen, Marcus Mariota, Kyler Murray, and Justin Fields.
With that said, Jones struggles as an underdog, averaging just 16.7 FPG as an underdog of 3.0-points or more, compared to 20.6 FPG outside of that split.
Similarly, Saquon Barkley also struggles as an underdog, averaging a pedestrian 14.1 FPG when New York is a dog by 3.0 points or more.
It took New York forever, but they’ve finally integrated Darrius Slayton into this WR rotation, and he may already be their WR1. In Week 5, he led the receivers with 7 targets, 79 yards, and 12.7 XFP. He’s legitimately in play this week at just $3,800 (WR62), given he averages 10.4 FPG (~2.7X salary) in his career when seeing a snap share over 75%.
Lamar Jackson averages an insane 28.2 as a favorite of 3.0-points or more since 2019 (31 games). If he managed that production for an entire season, that would be the greatest QB fantasy season of all time.
Baltimore seems dead set on a backfield committee, as JK Dobbins earned just 4.4 XFP and a 40% snap share with Justice Hill inactive.
Matchups:
Baltimore has been a plus matchup for opposing QBs this year, allowing +5.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (4th-most) and the most raw FPG (28.2).
Baltimore has also given up the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+4.1). More credence to playing Darrius Slayton as your run-back on Lamar Jackson teams.
New York has given up the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+3.3), suggesting a plus matchup for Mark Andrews.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) @ New Orleans Saints (O/U: 43.5)
Trends:
Joe Mixon is seeing the best usage on any RB (20.8 XFP/G), and he averages +7.5 more FPG in wins (20.9) than losses (13.4). The Bengals implied win probability this week is 57%. But the matchup isn’t great…
Tee Higgins is at risk of missing Week 6. He only played 7 snaps in Week 5, which led to Hayden Hurst seeing his best usage of the season (16.4 XFP) and the 2nd-most targets per route on the team in Week 5 (26%). Mike Thomas also ran a route on 55% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks, making him a viable Week 6 play in the event Tee Higgins sits given his $3,000 DK salary.
Alvin Kamara saw his best usage of the season and the 6th-best usage among RBs (19.9 XFP) in Week 5. He’s performed well as an underdog in games with a sub-44.0 total, averaging 23.2 FPG (~RB1) across his career (7 instances).
Michael Thomas (foot) is expected to play Week 6, while Chris Olave (concussion) looks very questionable. The absence of Olave’s 15.4 XFP/G would surely be great news for Thomas, who averages 23.5 FPG in his 33 career games with 8 or more targets.
Simply put, New Orleans doesn’t trust Andy Dalton to throw the ball as much as they did Jameis Winston. NO’s pass rate over expectation with Jameis was 3.9%, but it’s fallen to -11.7% in the last two weeks with Andy Dalton.
Matchups:
New Orleans remains a brutal matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the 3rd-fewest XFP (90.1) and the 6th-fewest FPs (83.9) to opposing RBs. Last season, NO was the single-toughest matchup for opposing RBs, allowing just 17.4 FPG.
However, the Saints do appear weak against outside WRs, allowing the 8th-fewest XFP (94.1), but the 6th-most total fantasy points (125.4). Relative to expectation, they’ve been the 2nd-worst team against opposing outside WRs. This sets up nicely for Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bengals have been a very tough matchup for opposing WRs, allowing the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-6.2) and the 2nd-fewest overall FPG (17.3).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 42.0)
Trends:
Trevor Lawrence has been a favorite six times in his career, and he’s averaged just 13.1 FPG in those contests.
Travis Etienne has out-snapped (64-52) James Robinson the last two weeks, while seeing better usage (9.8 XFP/G to 8.2). It looks like Etienne is headed for lead back duties, granted it may take a few more weeks to fully play out.
Zay Jones remains a screaming value. He is the WR51 by DraftKings salary ($4,200), despite ranking 27th in XFP/G (14.1), 22nd in targets per game (8), 5th in red zone opportunities per game (2.0), and 8th in end zone targets per game (1.3).
Matt Ryan has just 7 pass attempts of 20 or more yards this season (32nd), which is as many as Zach Wilson, who has played in just two games. Needless to say, that’s not great for Michael Pittman or any of these IND WRs. Ryan’s arm might just be cooked.
Julio Jones managed six games of 80 or more receiving yards as a rookie. Alec Pierce has done that twice in his first four NFL games.
Pierce has also exceeded 60 receiving yards in three of his four games this season. Other rookies to accomplish the same feat in their first four games? Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, DeSean Jackson, DK Metcalf, and Will Fuller – just to name a few.
Jonathan Taylor looks likely to play this week, and he averages just 15.0 FPG in his 14 career losses, compared to 21.6 FPG in his 22 career wins. The Colts’ win probability this week is 57%.
Matchups:
Jacksonville has been tough against WRs thus far, allowing the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-5.9), and the 7th-fewest overall FPG (29.6).
Both of these teams have been tough against the slot, with JAX allowing the 3rd-fewest FPs of any team (31.3), and IND allowing the 5th-fewest (40.4).
Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (O/U: 45.0)
Trends:
Only six WRs have multiple games of 22.0 or more XFP. Justin Jefferson has four games of 22.0 or more XFP, which is at least double every player not-named Cooper Kupp.
Perhaps it’s injury-related, but Dalvin Cook's 2022 workload (13.8 XFP/G) is more than 20% worse than his 2021 workload (17.4 XFP/G). With that said, Cook saw his best usage of the season in Week 5 (19.8 XFP), so maybe the injury concerns can be put to rest.
Cook averages +5.7 more FPG in wins (21.5) than losses (15.8) across his career, so the Vikings’ 62% win probability this week offers some hope of a blowup game.
By XFP/G, Adam Thielen is actually the WR15 over the last four weeks, averaging 16.2. His $5,900 (WR17) Week 6 DraftKings price tag is the 4th-cheapest he’s been since the start of the 2020 season.
Miami has both of their top QBs in concussion protocol, granted it looks like there is a real chance either Teddy Bridgwater or Tua Tagovailoa could play, based on the current Vegas line. Skylar Thompson’s 57.4 PFF passing grade on 35 dropbacks Sunday doesn’t suggest he’s very good, but he may not need to be when he’s throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Hill (194) and Waddle (167) both rank top-7 among WRs in YAC. All the Miami QB needs to do is get them the ball.
Hill also averages an insane 25.5 DraftKings FPG and 21.5 Fanduel FPG in his 17 career games as an underdog. Hill has gone over 40.0 DraftKings points in 24% of those games.
Chase Edmonds is complete dust in this backfield, as Myles Gaskin (9.7 XFP) saw 3X the workload Edmonds did (3.2 XFP) on Sunday.
But, Raheem Mostert is the unquestioned lead RB. He logged a 69% snap share, 100% of 2-minute drill snaps, a 50% route share, and a season-high 19.2 FPs on Sunday.
Matchups:
MIA has been the 3rd-worst team against opposing QBs this season, allowing 26.6 FPG.
And, the Dolphins have also struggled against RBs, allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.2) this season. And teams seem more than willing to use their RBs against Miami, as the Dolphins have given up the 4th-most XFP (129.7) to opposing RBs.
New England Patriots (+3) @ Cleveland Browns (O/U: 42.5)
Trends:
Rhamondre Stevenson looks to be a bell cow, as Damien Harris appears to be out multiple games. Stevenson logged every snap after Harris went down in Week 5, earning the 10th-most XFP (15.6) of any RB.
And, Stevenson is just really good. He is PFF’s 3rd-highest graded rusher (89.0), ranks 3rd in yards after contact per attempt (4.24), and has the 5th-best PFF receiving grade (71.5) among RBs. He’s in an awesome spot likely commanding ~80% of backfield usage in the league’s 7th-most productive backfield by FPG (25.7).
Jakobi Meyers has led New England in target share in each of his last 10 healthy games. He’s earned 8 or more targets in 8 of his last 9 healthy games.
This season, Meyers is the 8th-most valuable WR on a per-snap basis. And on a per-route basis, he’s the 2nd-most targeted WR in football (0.34).
Hunter Henry saw solid 82% route participation and 5 total targets without Jonnu Smith in Week 5. If Smith were to sit again in Week 6, Henry would be moderately viable at just $3,100 on DraftKings this week, but it’s reasonable to question the upside there.
Actual fantasy points don’t tell this story, but Nick Chubb (15.3 XFP/G) and Kareem Hunt (13.8 XFP/G) are earning very similar workloads this season. Interestingly, Hunt actually bests Chubb in red zone opportunities, 4.4 to 3.8.
David Njoku has earned at least 10.2 XFP in each of his last three games. He’s one of just four TEs to earn double-digit XFP in each of the last three weeks, joining Mark Andrews, Tracis Kelce, and Zach Ertz.
Amari Cooper remains insanely volatile. He’s gone over 20.0 FPs in three games, while falling under 5.0 FPs in his other two contests. He’s the ideal GPP WR.
Matchups:
The Browns have given up the 2nd-most FPG relative to expectation to opposing RBs this season (+16.2), while also grading as the league’s worst run defense (34.8 PFF team rush defense grade). An elite matchup for presumptive bell cow Rhamondre Stevenson.
CLE has given up the 5th-most FPs (130.9) to opposing outside WRs. And, they’ve been very tough against opposing slot WRs, giving up just 24.9 FPs to opposing slots this year (2nd-fewest). A poor matchup for Jakobi Meyers.
New York Jets (+7) @ Green Bay Packers (O/U: 46.0)
Trends:
Zach Wilson is actually playing pretty well. He’s 11th in PFF passing grades (72.3) and 10th in EPA per play (0.01). But, New York’s pass rate over expectation has fallen from +6.4% (without Wilson) to -6.8% with him under center. So, this coaching staff still doesn’t appear to trust Wilson to throw as much as Joe Flacco.
But, despite the lack of trust in Wilson, his two starts this season have been his 4th-best and 6th-best ever, from a fantasy perspective.
And, that lack of pass volume is surely hurting NYJ’s most talented WRs. Neither Elijah Moore nor Garrett Wilson has exceeded double-digit XFP in an individual game since Wilson took over.
Breece Hall ranks 7th among RBs in XFP/G (18.6) and 9th in FPG (19.5) over the last three weeks despite being vultured by Michael Carter twice inside the 1-yard line in that time span.
Hall also ranks 4th among RBs in targets per game (6.0) – but the targets he’s seeing aren’t just checkdowns. Hall has a position-leading 9 targets of 5 or more air yards, and 3 targets or 20 or more air yards. So, not only is seeing strong volume as a RB, he’s also running routes down the field like an actual WR. Hall (28.6) has a real chance to break David Johnson’s record (30.4) for the most air yards per game by a RB since at least 2007.
Aaron Jones has seen a solid uptick in his workload over the last two weeks, seeing his XFP/G jump +1.7 (to 14.8 XFP/G) and his snap% jump +6.8% (to 67%), while doubling AJ Dillon’s RZ opportunities (4 to 2) after the duo split RZ chances equally in the first three weeks.
By backfield XFP%: Jones has earned 39% then 49% then 54% then 60% then 84% in Week 5.
So, it appears the backfield split is drifting closer to the Jamaal Williams and Jones split of old (65/35 Jones) rather than the 50/50 backfield many thought it would be after the first few weeks.
Obviously, that’s great news for Aaron Jones. But it’s also great news that Green Bay is a heavy favorite this week, as Jones averages 19.5 FPG in his 41 wins since 2019, compared to just 9.4 FPG in his 11 losses. And, in wins of 6-points or more, Jones averages an even more impressive 20.5 FPG.
Romeo Doubs is $1,200 cheaper on DraftKings than Allen Lazard, despite that over the last three weeks, Doubs is averaging +1.3 more XFP/G, has just one fewer target (21 total), and a team-leading 82% route participation.
Randall Cobb went from 48% route participation in the first four weeks of the season to 73% in Week 5, earning a team-leading 13 targets. If this usage continues, he’s glaringly underpriced at $4,400 on DraftKings.
Since 2019, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 25.4 FPG in games the Packers have won by 6-points or more, compared to 19.8 FPG outside of that split.
Matchups:
GB has been tough against opposing QBs, allowing the 4th-fewest FPG (15.2) this season.
The Packers have been the 2nd-toughest team against opposing TEs this season, allowing just 30.0 FPs.
The Jets were regarded last season as the league’s best matchup for opposing RBs, but things look to have changed this year. NYJ has allowed the 11th-fewest FPs to opposing RBs this year (92.6), which is 20.2 FPs below expectation (9th-toughest).
San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 44.5)
Trends:
Tevin Coleman stole 42% of backfield XFP in a blowout victory for SF. While you may think Coleman’s usage only came in garbage time, he actually scored 70% of his total fantasy points in the first half, while playing the same total number of red zone snaps (9) as Jeff Wilson. SF may be headed toward a backfield committee, but we obviously need more data to know for sure.
But even in a committee, Wilson is still live for 60 to 70% of the backfield opportunites. And he’s averaged an impressive 17.8 FPG in his 10 career games with 15 or more carries.
George Kittle’s route participation jumped from 65% in Weeks 3 and 4 to 81% in Week 5, and he earned his best workload of the season, granted it was only 8.7 XFP.
Nobody in this Atlanta backfield is playable until Cordarrelle Patterson comes back. In Week 5, Tyler Allgeier captured 49% of backfield XFP, Avery Williams earned 29%, and Caleb Huntley earned the final 22%.
With no Kyle Pitts, the Falcons decided to give Drake London just 62% route participation. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with 68% route participation. The Arthur Smith offense continues to depress.
Matchups:
ATL is giving up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+4.8), and the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+4.1).
SF is giving up the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (-5.7), and the 5th-fewest to opposing TEs (-4.9).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 43.5)
Trends:
Tampa Bay’s pass rate over expectation by week: -3%, -6%, 11%, 23%, and 18% (Week 5). Tom Brady’s pass attempts per game have jumped from 30.5 per game in Weeks 1 and 2 to 48.7 over the last three weeks.
And, Tampa Bay has also started moving at a lightning pace offensively.
Since joining the Buccaneers, Tom Brady has averaged 26.0 FPG in wins of 6-points or more, compared to 21.5 FPG in all other games.
Week 5 left little doubt that Leonard Fournette is still a bell cow. He earned 100% of backfield RZ opportunities, 71% of backfield targets (10), and 78% of backfield XFP (26.9). Remember that last season, Tampa Bay led the league in pass rate over expectation, and Forunette tied for the lead in targets per game (among RBs) at 6.0. The improvement in pace and pass volume is great for him.
Since joining Tampa Bay, Fournette averages 21.0 FPG in wins, and an even more impressive 22.3 FPG in wins of 6-points or more.
Chris Godwin is still limited. He’s played on just 32% of the Bucs’ snaps when they’ve had the lead over the last 2 weeks (compared to 62% for Scotty Miller). They may be cautious with him, especially in the latter half of games, for the foreseeable future.
Cade Otton is a bell cow TE until Cameron Brate comes back. In Week 5, Otton logged a 94% snap share, a team-leading 93% route share, and 7 targets for a 13% target share. At least on DraftKings, Otton is a screaming value in his current role given his $2,900 price tag.
Jaylen Warren looks to be a huge problem for Najee Harris. Relative to last season, Harris is seeing 34% fewer snaps per game, 31% fewer carries per game, and 84% fewer targets per game. In Week 5, Warren captured 45% of backfield XFP, while Harris earned just 55% (a career low).
Even worse for Harris? Mike Tomlin expects Warren’s usage will continue to increase moving forward.
Over the last two weeks (which includes ~6 quarters of Kenny Pickett under center) George Pickens has been right there with Diontae Johnson as the Steelers’ leading WR. Pickens has earned 17.7% of team positional XFP (compared to 19.6% for Johnson), 9.0 targets per game (8.5 for Johnson), 3.0 deep targets per game (2.5 for Johnson), and 15.0 XFP/G (16.6 for Johnson).
Matchups:
TB is remarkably tough against opposing RBs, allowing the 2nd-fewest FPs this season (72.6). Last season, they ranked 4th-toughest by FPG allowed (20.0). There is absolutely no reason to play anyone in this Pittsburgh backfield in Week 6.
By raw FPs allowed (83.1), TB ranks as the 9th-toughest defense for opposing outside WRs. But I’m not sure that accurately represents how good they’ve been, as no team has stifled outside WRs relative to expectation like they have, with outside WRs falling 41.7 FPs short of their expectation this season.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has allowed the 2nd-most FPs to opposing outside WRs (152.7), which is 18.9 more than expected (5th-worst). A great matchup for Mike Evans.
And, the Steelers have been the 4th-worst team against opposing slot WRs, allowing 84.9 FPs this season.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 51.0)
Trends:
Arizona (26.75) has the 2nd-highest implied team total of the slate.
Kyler Murray has done quite well in high-total games over the last three seasons, averaging 25.8 DraftKings FPG (~QB3) in games with a total of 49.0 or more. He’s gone over 38.0 DraftKings points in 19% of those games.
Eno Benjamin could be a bell cow this week. Darrel Williams is out, and James Conner is questionable. So far this season, Arizona has been the league’s 21st-most productive backfield, averaging 21.9 FPG.
Rondale Moore was a full-time slot WR in Week 5 with AJ Green back, and Moore earned the 2nd-best workload of his career (14.0 XFP) as a result. Remember that Greg Dortch averaged 15.3 FPG and 12.4 XFP/G in that role in the first three weeks of the season.
Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz are both seeing elite volume.
From The XFP Report: Since Week 2 and on a per-game basis, Brown has averaged: 130.3 air yards per game (4th-most), 12.5 targets per game (most), 21.2 XFP/G (2nd-most), and 20.9 FPG (4th-most).
From The XFP Report: If excluding Week 1, Ertz has now seen double-digit targets in 8 of his last 11 healthy games. Over this span, Ertz averages 9.3 targets, 16.5 XFP/G, 0.69 XTD/G, and 13.3 FPG. In contrast to all 2021 TEs, those numbers rank 2nd-, 1st-, 1st-, and 5th-best. In contrast to all 2021 WRs, those numbers rank: 12th-, 10th-, 2nd-, and 30th-best. This week, Ertz ($4,900) is priced as the TE4, or the WR34 on DraftKings.
There isn’t an NFL QB throwing the ball better than Geno Smith right now. He’s PFF’s highest-graded passer (87.9), ranks 3rd-best in EPA per play (0.19), and is averaging 38.4 more passing YPG than Russell Wilson did last year.
Over the last five seasons, Tyler Lockett has averaged 18.4 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher. He’s gone over 40.0 DraftKings points in 16% of those games.
DK Metcalf averages 19.8 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher over his career.
Rashaad Penny is out for the year, so Kenneth Walker is going to smash, right? Well, it’s hard to see much upside for Walker in a backfield that averages 18.2 FPG on the season (4th-worst).
Matchups:
By PFF team coverage grades, these are the two worst coverage units in the NFL. Arizona (36.8 team coverage grade) ranks dead last, while Seattle (42.0) ranks 31st. Great news for both passing attacks.
With that said, Seattle has been a tougher matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing the 2nd-fewest FPs (63.7) this season.
Coincidently, these are also the two worst teams in the NFL at defending opposing TEs. Arizona has given up a league-leading 97.6 FPs to opposing TEs, while SEA has given up 94.6 (31st).
Carolina Panthers (+10.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 41.0)
Trends:
From The XFP Report: Carolina has run the 2nd-fewest total plays in the NFL (273), while Arizona leads the league by the same stat (376). Christian McCaffrey currently leads the league in fantasy points per play (0.34). If Carolina were running as many plays as Arizona, McCaffrey would be averaging 25.2 FPG instead of 19.0. For perspective, 25.2 FPG would rank 20th-most by any RB all-time.
New interim HC Steve Wilks managed just 56.4 plays per game in 2018 with Arizona, so it’s difficult to anticipate a big improvement on the 55.8 plays per game the Panthers have averaged this season.
PJ Walker is starting for Carolina at QB this week. I think DJ Moore actually gets a boost here, as he’s averaged 14.6 FPG and 10.6 targets per game with Walker under center (5 games) compared to 13.0 FPG and 7.8 targets per game in his other 63 career games.
Among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts since 2017, no QB has targeted outside WRs at a higher rate than PJ Walker (52%). Another encouraging note for DJ Moore.
Cooper Kupp’s workload this season (22.3 XFP/G) is +1.3 XFP/G better than his 2021 workload (21.0 XFP/G).
Kupp averages 27.2 FPG over the last two seasons in wins of 6-points or more, despite averaging 1.1 fewer targets per game in that split.
Among TEs, Tyler Higbee ranks 3rd in XFP/G (14.7) and 3rd in targets per game (8.6). He’s the TE5 (by salary) on DraftKings this week, with a salary of $4,600.
Matchups:
The Panthers have allowed the 7th-most FPs to opposing RBs this season (110.9).
The Rams have been terrible against outside WRs this season, allowing the 3rd-most FPs (146.5), and the 3rd-most FPs relative to expectation (+29.5). A solid matchup for DJ Moore.
CAR has been very weak against opposing slot WRs, allowing the 3rd-most FPs (87.5), and the 3rd-most FPs relative to expectation (+18.1).
Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 54.0)
Trends:
Josh Allen is on pace for the greatest QB fantasy season ever. His 29.3 FPG is +1.6 better than the best fantasy QB season ever (2019 Lamar Jackson).
And, Josh Allen has historically dominated high-total games, averaging an insane 31.3 DraftKings FPG and 30.1 Fanduel FPG in his 12 games over the last three years with a total of 52.0 or higher – scoring over 30.0 DraftKings points in 58% of those games.
Devin Singletary appears to be a bell cow, but only in big games. Singletary has averaged 20.1 XFP/G, 17.5 opportunities per game, and 7.5 targets per game in the Bills’ pair of one-score games, but he’s averaged just 5.8 XFP/G, 12.5 opportunities per game, and 2.5 targets per game in the Bills’ three blowout wins. Needless to say, he’s an awesome play this week.
Isaiah McKenzie has cleared concussion protocol. He should be a full-time player this week, and he’s averaged a solid 15.5 FPG (~WR14) in his eight career games with 5 or more targets.
Stefon Diggs has played in 24 games for Buffalo with an implied team total of 27.0 or more, averaging 22.6 DraftKings FPG in those contests and going over 40.0 DraftKings points in 13% of those contests.
Patrick Mahomes has only been an underdog eight times in his career. He averages a very impressive 29.9 DraftKing FPG in those games and has gone over 40.0 DraftKings points in 38% of those contests.
Mahomes has also averaged 27.3 DraftKings FPG in his 44 career games with a total of 52.0 or higher.
Jerick McKinnon is fairly interesting, at just $4,700 (RB44) on DraftKings. He actually averages more XTD/G (0.8) than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (0.7) over the last two weeks, suggesting he has better TD equity than his price implies.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has gone over 20.0 DraftKings FPs in 22% of his nine career games with a total of 52.0 or more. He’s fallen under 10.0 DraftKings FPs in the remaining 78% of games. By XFP/G (10.9) he’s the Chiefs’ leading WR, albeit just barely.
Travis Kelce has only played in six games with a total of over 50.0 as an underdog. He averages 22.6 DraftKings FPG in those contests and has exceeded 31.0 DraftKings FPs in two of those games.
Matchups:
Buffalo has allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (-8.4) and opposing TEs (-7.0) this year. That makes for a tough matchup for Kelce and Mahomes.
KC has been a very favorable matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+5.3). They also rank 9th-worst in PFF’s team run defense grades. Queue up Devin Singletary.
