The 2025 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2025 NFL Receiving Touchdowns Props for the league’s top players at the skill positions. In this article, I highlighted a bet I’ve already made on Puka Nacua and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
2025 NFL Receiving Touchdowns Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receiving touchdowns projection. Target the Lowest Receiving Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Receiving Touchdown Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) to find the best yardage totals for receivers as of June 2.
| Player | FP Projection | Highest TD Total (under) | Lowest TD Total (over) |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 10.5 | 10.5 (-110, DK) | 9.5 (-135, ESPN) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 8.8 | 7.5 (-120, DK) | 6.5 (-115, ESPN) |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 8.8 | 9.5 (-110, DK) | 9.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 8.8 | 7.5 (-110, DK) | 6.5 (-145, ESPN) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 8.8 | 7.5 (-110, DK) | 7.5 (-110, DK) |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 8.3 | 8.5 (-105, MGM) | 7.5 (-135, ESPN) |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 8.0 | 7.5 (-135, DK) | 6.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Courtland Sutton (Den) | 8.0 | 7.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (-130, DK) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 8.0 | 7.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (-130, DK) |
| Brian Thomas (Jax) | 7.8 | 6.5 (-110, DK) | 6.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 7.6 | 8.5 (-110, DK) | 8.5 (+100, MGM) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Pit) | 7.6 | 7.5 (-145, MGM) | 6.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 7.6 | 5.5 (-110, DK) | 5.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | 7.5 | 6.5 (+100, DK) | 6.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari) | 7.3 | 7.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (-125, DK) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 6.9 | 7.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (-135, ESPN) |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 6.7 | 7.5 (-120, DK) | 7.5 (+115, CZR) |
| Terry McLaurin (Was) | 6.4 | 7.5 (-135, DK) | 6.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Player | FP Projection | Highest TD Total (under) | Lowest TD Total (over) |
| Tetairoa McMillan (Car) | 6.4 | 4.5 (+120, CZR) | 4.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Sam LaPorta (Det) | 6.3 | 6.5 (-120, DK) | 6.5 (+100, DK) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea) | 6.2 | 5.5 (-130, CZR) | 5.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 6.2 | 6.5 (-120, MGM) | 5.5 (-105,ESPN) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 6.0 | 6.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (+110, CZR) |
| Travis Hunter (Jax) | 5.8 | 5.5 (-105, 365) | 4.5 (+100, CZR) |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 5.8 | 3.5 (-110, MGM) | 3.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Trey McBride (Ari) | 5.7 | 4.5 (-110, DK) | 4.5 (-110, DK) |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 5.7 | 4.5 (-110, DK) | 4.5 (+100, ESPN) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 5.7 | 4.5 (-110, MGM) | 4.5 (+100, DK) |
| George Pickens (Dal) | 5.7 | 5.5 (-125, CZR) | 4.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Devonta Smith (Phi) | 5.7 | 6.5 (-120, MGM) | 5.5 (-120, ESPN) |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 5.5 | 6.5 (-140, 365) | 5.5 (+130, CZR) |
| Jameson Williams (Det) | 5.4 | 5.5 (-120, MGM) | 5.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Jerry Jeudy (Cle) | 5.2 | 3.5 (-110, MGM) | 3.5 (-110, MGM) |
| Zay Flowers (Bal) | 5.1 | 4.5 (+100, DK) | 4.5 (-110, MGM) |
| David Njoku (Cle) | 4.8 | 5.5 (-120, MGM) | 5.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Colston Loveland (Chi) | 4.4 | 4.5 (-120, MGM) | 3.5 (-115, CZR) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Puka Nacua (LAR) over 5.5 receiving TDs (+100, BetMGM)
Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit. Placed June 2.
Nacua is being selected in the first round of fantasy drafts, but sportsbooks aren’t nearly as optimistic, with Nacua lined at just 5.5 receiving TDs. He’s coming off a disappointing 3 TDs in 11 games last season, which gives him only 9 TDs to open his career despite 266 targets and 2476 receiving yards. Nacua is averaging 275.1 receiving yards for every receiving TD scored, which is well below the league average of 151.9 receiving yards per receiving TD over the last two seasons. He’s a good bet to have better TD luck in the future after ranking first in TPRR (.38) and YPRR (3.59) last season. For perspective, Tyreek Hill scored 13 TDs when he led the league in TPRR and YPRR in 2023. Los Angeles signed Davante Adams to replace Cooper Kupp this off-season, which could lead to a more pass-heavy attack. The Rams ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation (-1.1%) overall and 26th in PROE inside the 5-yard line (-9.8%). Nacua will be among the league leaders in target share in one of the league’s higher-scoring offenses, which makes him a good bet to surpass his TD total.
Brolley’s Leans
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) under 8.5 receiving TDs (-110, DraftKings)
St. Brown has seen his touchdowns climb in each of his first four seasons, including a pair of double-digit TD campaigns the last two years. We’re projecting St. Brown and the Lions offense as a whole to take a step back after averaging an NFL-best 4.1 TDs per game. The Lions lost play-caller Ben Johnson to the Bears, and C Frank Ragnow surprisingly retired to leave this offense a little weaker heading into 2025. St. Brown went from a 27% target share with 5 end-zone targets in the first 11 games last season to a 23.1% target share with no end-zone TDs in the final eight games (postseason included). St. Brown’s dip in usage corresponded with Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams earning bigger roles down the stretch. Williams has been the talk of Detroit’s off-season workouts, with OC John Morton and Dan Campbell each proclaiming a breakout season could be coming. St. Brown is still the engine for this passing attack, but we’re projecting him for 7.6 TDs with Johnson gone and more competition for targets.
Tee Higgins (Cin) over 6.5 receiving TDs (-115, ESPN)
Higgins has struggled to stay healthy in each of the last two seasons, missing 10-of-34 games (29.4%) for hamstring and quad injuries. He cruised over his receiving touchdown prop last season by scoring a career-high 10 times despite missing five games. His 6.5 touchdown total this season seems to be baking in more missed time for Ja’Marr Chase’s running mate. We have Chase (10.5 TDs) and Higgins (8.8) projected for the NFL's most receiving TDs this season. Chase tied Justin Jefferson and Courtland Sutton for the most end-zone targets (18), while Higgins led the league in end-zone targets per game (1.25). Joe Burrow and the Bengals ranked first in pass rate over expectation (11.9%) overall, which rose to 15.2% (2nd) inside the 20-yard line and 22.9% (2nd) inside the 5-yard line. Cincinnati is likely to be near the top of the league PROE and in scoring, which makes an over bet on Higgins’ TD total attainable if he’s able to stay relatively healthy.
Chris Godwin (TB) under 6.5 receiving TDs (-140, Bet365)
Godwin scored 7+ receiving TDs in three straight seasons in 2018-20, but he’s failed to top 5 TDs in four consecutive seasons since then. He’ll try to get back to 7+ TDs for the first time since 2020, but the odds could be stacked against him as he returns from a catastrophic leg injury. The Buccaneers had one of the league’s best receiving corps heading into the draft, and they added to that strength by selecting Emeka Egbuka 19th overall. It was a surprising pick considering the Buccaneers just handed Godwin $44 million in free agency. GM Jason Licht has said Godwin is on track for Week 1, but he could be eased back into a full-time role with Egbuka and Jalen McMillan in the mix behind Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin will have more competition for opportunities, and Baker Mayfield’s career-high 7.2% TD rate is likely to regress toward his 5.0% career TD rate. We have him projected for 5.5 TDs, and this is a strong bet if you don’t mind paying extra juice at -140 odds.
Tetairoa McMillan (Car) over 4.5 receiving TDs (-110, Bet365)
The Panthers used top-8 draft capital to give Bryce Young a monster perimeter target. McMillan owned per-game averages of 7.0 receptions, 108.8 receiving yards, and .72 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Arizona. The Panthers could use McMillan in a rotation with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker for the two outside WR spots, at least early in the season. It shouldn’t take long for McMillan to overtake Adam Thielen as Carolina’s top target after the soon-to-be 34-year-old receiver finished with team-bests in target share (18.7%), route share (76.9%), and receiving TD share (35.7%). Young showed some promise in the second half of last season, and McMillan will need him to take another step forward to beat his receiving TD prop. At 6’4”, 219 pounds, he could become a red-zone force early in his career, and we have him projected for 6.4 TDs.
Jaylen Waddle (Mia) over 3.5 receiving TDs (-110, BetMGM)
Waddle is coming off a miserable fourth season, failing to reach 1000+ receiving yards, 72+ receptions, and 100+ targets for the first time in his career. His target share (22%>15.4%), first-read share (24.6%>17.7%), and air yards share (29.7%>23.9%) each plummeted from 2023 to 2024 with the addition of Jonnu Smith to the passing attack. Waddle’s receiving TDs have fallen in half in each of the last three seasons (8>4>2), but we’re projecting better TD luck for him in a passing game that struggled overall last season. Waddle has scored a receiving TD for every 293 receiving yards over the last two seasons, which is almost double the league average of 151.9 receiving yards per TD over the last two seasons. Waddle has had a tough run of touchdown luck, and he won’t need a huge change in fortune to climb over his touchdown prop. We have him projected for 5.8 TDs, which makes his over one of the strongest plays on the board.
